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2018 NFL Draft

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Week 4 Stock Watch: Three Up, Three Down


CWood21

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Every week is another week to evaluate potential draft prospects, and see whose stock is rising and whose stock is falling.  Obviously, none of these guys are going to live or die by one week, so it's more important to look at how they progress over the course of the season than any one game under the microscope.

Stock Up

Saquon Barkley [RB; Penn State]
I wasn't planning on putting anyone whose stock was pretty much cemented in the 1st round into these, but it's hard to ignore the productive day by Saquon Barkely.  He showed just about every facet of his game as he led his team with 28 rushing attempts and 12 receptions in Penn State's win over Iowa.  He showed his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, ability to run the ball into the teeth of the defense, and shown the ability to turn the corner.  From what I saw, he wasn't asked much in terms of pass protection but that's usually the last thing that RBs especially star RBs get in terms of the development curve.  Barring injury, he is quickly solidifying himself as a potential top 10 pick in next year's draft.

Deontay Burnett [WR; USC]
While the numbers might not be overly impressive, he continues to produce incredibly well and shows a good amount of polish for being a younger receiver.  He's not blessed with incredible physical tools at just 6'0", 170 but he gets the most out of his tools and is explosive after the catch.  He might not be more than a slot receiver at the next level given his small frame, but teams are going to get the ball in his hands and let him make plays.  He definitely plays bigger than he is listed.  I think he could put on some more weight onto his frame would help his draft stock, especially if he doesn't lose his explosiveness.

Bradley Chubb [EDGE; NC State]
Another guy who had an absolute big day against Florida State as he finished with 7 tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 TFL as he lived in the Seminoles' backfield.  In previous years, I had some concerns with his ability in terms of run defense but he showed solid fundamentals against Florida State and did a pretty good job of setting the edge.  Add on his ability to turn the corner and Chubb is seeing his stock moving in the right direction.  He made his presence felt with repeated hits on James Blackman.  IF Chubb can continue to put up big numbers over the rest of the season, he's going to parlay it into a high draft pick.

Stock Down

Josh Allen [QB; Wyoming]
After going 9-24 for 64 passing yards and an interception against Oregon, he backed that up with 9-19 with 92 passing yards and a passing TD showing against Hawaii that has the 115th worst passing defense according to QBR.  Let's not sugar coat this, his receivers are miserable and I counted at least four catchable balls that were dropped on him in the first half alone.  That being said, he's still got his fair share of issues.  He still struggles to make what should be relatively easy throws, and he struggles with the consistency in his footwork.  That being said, someone is going to gamble on him based on the physical tools, but there's too many question marks to invest anything significant into him.  I might be willing to gamble a late Day 2 pick on him, but he's a 4th-5th rounder at best for me right now.

Mason Rudolph [QB; Oklahoma State]
Oh what a week's difference makes in the eyes of evaluators.  After getting significant praise for his play against Pitt, he struggled significantly against TCU and their 4-2-5 defense.  After posting big numbers in his previous games, he struggled to the tune of 22-41 for 398 passing yards, 2 passing TD, and 2 interceptions.  Of those 398 receiving yards, 86 of them came via the first TD pass of the day for Rudolph.  One of the things that stood out to me in this game was his lack of feel for pressure.  He had the fumble early in the 2nd quarter, but he also had pressure that would have been a sack had the defender not slipped.  His intermediate accuracy tends to be very hit or miss, and the offense he plays in really doesn't do him any favors in terms of evaluation.  I'm not sure his decision making or accuracy are on par with an NFL-starting QB, and at this point probably isn't worth more than a mid-round pick at the earliest.  Honestly, I view him as Mike Glennon with a bit less arm strength, but a bit more accuracy.

Arden Key [EDGE; LSU]
After going into the offseason with top 10 hype, the stock of Key has dropped significantly.  After sitting out through offseason practice to focus on his personal life and missing the first two games of the season, Arden has been virtually non-existent which includes his team's win against Mississippi State.  At this point, his stock is trending in the wrong direction and moving away from a potential first round pick as he starts the year with just 0.5 sacks over his first two games.  He'll need to turn the corner if he wants to regain that stock he had after last season.

It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season goes, and talent evaluators will certainly be keeping a close eye on them.

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