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The Guy

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  1. Chart those same games and tell us what the QBs' passer ratings were. You'll find a near-zero correlation.
  2. It's pretty dumb to be playing defense to take away the sidelines when the offensive team doesn't need to use the sidelines. There are going to be two plays there with two timeouts used, no matter what. It's not like they're in a two-minute drill where they need the sidelines and the timeouts. Whoever made the defensive calls for Buffalo in that situation needs to have his head examined. I'd venture to say that person isn't all that intelligent.
  3. We've already done this. The correlation between Dallas's passer rating and their number of rushing yards, game-by-game between 2016 and 2021 (including the playoffs), is 0.32. So, 10% of the variance in Prescott's passer rating is explained by Dallas's number of rushing yards. 90% of the variance in his passer rating is unexplained by it. Prescott can do just fine when they run the ball for comparatively fewer yards, and he can play poorly when they run the ball for comparatively more yards. Again this belief that "QBs benefit from their run games" is a myth. What QBs benefit from is
  4. Those QBs’ teams may need good running games to succeed. That doesn’t mean their running games influence their individual performance. There is little correlation between running game variables and QB performance.
  5. You're talking about how teams perform when they run the ball well, not how QBs perform. Winning and losing is a measure of team performance, not QBs' performances. In 2020 the correlation team-by-team league-wide between EPA per pass dropback and EPA per rush was a mere 0.23. A mere 5% of EPA per pass dropback is predicted by EPA per rush. The average league correlation between passer rating and rushing efficiency (yards per rush) game-by-game is near zero. Teams can pass the ball just fine without rushing it well. The belief that "QBs benefit from their run games" is a myth
  6. Speaking of basketball, it appears we're about at the point where Patrick Mahomes should simply be regarded as the Michael Jordan of the NFL, and regardless of how teams construct themselves to beat him, they'll be about as likely to as NBA teams were to beat the Bulls in Jordan's prime.
  7. Somebody making the Bills' defensive calls on that series definitely has a lot to answer for. They allowed them to complete high-percentage passes with lots of YAC, rather than making them throw lower-percentage passes downfield.
  8. Control for late-game clock-killing rushing yardage and see what you come up with, and use passing efficiency instead of an arbitrary cutoff of 250+ passing yards. A QB can pass for 250+ yards with 20 attempts or with 50 attempts -- he's a whole lot more efficient with 20 attempts. The league wins with passing efficiency and pass defense. If you're trying to say a team runs counter to that you have to control for confounding variables.
  9. Now you're talking about the relationship between the Cowboys' rushing yardage and winning, and not the relationship between their rushing yardage and Prescott's performance. Again, any assessment of the relationship between run game variables and winning has to control for late-game, ball-control, clock-killing running, as that's a confound with winning. You can't argue that running the ball causes winning if in fact winning causes running the ball. If you've already won the game with other variables and are using the run game to control the ball and run out the clock late in the game,
  10. If we remove the games Prescott didn't play due to injury in 2020, the correlation changes to 0.32. No difference.
  11. The correlation between Dallas's passer rating and their number of rushing yards, game-by-game between 2016 and 2021 (including the playoffs), is 0.33. So, 11% of the variance in Prescott's passer rating is explained by Dallas's number of rushing yards. 89% of the variance in his passer rating is unexplained by it. Here are the data: Rate Yds 140.9 108 151.6 171 149.2 164 120.2 51 158.3 89 138 223 112.9 8
  12. There is no human (myself included) who knows anything reliably over the long haul "through observation and review." This is why statistics exist -- because humans can't perform that number and complexity of mental/numerical operations. If you insist you can, we can immediately discount your perspective.
  13. If you really want to support that theory, then just do a simple correlation between the Cowboys' rushing yardage and Prescott's performance, game-by-game. If Prescott needs more rushing yardage to perform adequately (or better, or whatever), that correlation should be at least moderately strongly positive. You'll have to control for late-game, clock-killing rushing yardage, however, as that may be attributable to Prescott's effectiveness earlier in the game. In other words, Prescott's effectiveness may cause rushing yardage, rather than vice-versa.
  14. Single games can go any number of ways. Almost nothing is strongly predictive of the outcome of a single game. You can find games in history in which punting was responsible for the outcome of a single game -- doesn't mean punting is supremely important with regard to winning and teams should be drafting punters in the first round. If you want to know what's important with regard to winning over the long haul in the NFL, see here: https://www.opensourcefootball.com/posts/2020-08-23-exploring-wins-with-nflfastr/ This is why QBs, WRs, LTs, DEs, and CBs -- and not RBs, interior O
  15. Certainly offensive and defensive pass efficiency -- which is what that statistic is measuring -- provided a parameter within which those teams would be predicted to play, and then of course the outcome of the game could've been determined also by other variables. Had the YPA differential been significantly different, those other variables may have contributed to a different outcome. For example, two teams wildly discrepant in YPA differential may not have the outcome of their game hinge on turnover differential for example. Two teams far less discrepant on YPA differential may very wel
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