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childofpudding

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  1. Nice, good call. They do seem to be improving, though. Not sure about this week's DVOA vs. KC because it's not up yet, but BAL had three straight weeks of negative dDVOA, including a -43.1% vs. ATL. FWIW, Denver has been even better the last three weeks (-24.7%, -20%, -31.8%), so you have a good point.
  2. I don't think you're on the same level as Chicago, but I think you're on the level of Minnesota last season. I'd put Chicago up there with last year's Jacksonville, and Baltimore up there with last season's Minnesota.
  3. Chicago and Baltimore
  4. Those are good points. I dont think a "bend but dont break defense" is a dominant defense, so I disagree on 2001 and 2004. IMO a dominant defense would be top 5 in yards allowed and points allowed per drive, teams like the 00 Ravens, 03 Patriots, 08 Steelers, 13 Seahawks and 15 Broncos. I probably would include 16 Patriots, though. They were just outside that criteria and really underrated. This board **** on that defense constantly, with a lot of them saying I was crazy to say it actually performed well in the SB. As to your latter point, I think that is a commentary on SB winners more than anything. Generally a team needs a very good defense to win. I just looked at the last five SBs, and all five winners were top 5 in points allowed per drive. There are also years when the offense carries a team into the playoffs, but then the defense plays beyond its ranking in the postseason, eg. 06 Colts. Back to the point of the OP, I agree with most posters ITT who put it at 50/50 in terms of credit. There is a reason the team won 5 SBs and made it to half of them in the 16 years when Brady has started (that latter stat is just crazy). It's because they have had arguably the GOAT coach and GOAT QB. #blessed
  5. Meh. I already posted the numbers, and provided a comprehensive analysis for why looking at total points against in a vacuum is a mistake.
  6. I didnt say over the last decade. I said overall, during Belichick's entire 19-year stretch as HC of NE, the offense has been more responsible for the team's success. Brady gets most of the credit for that and, in my opinion, deserves it. I am not lumping them together. I even wrote earlier in this thread that BB doesnt get enough credit for offense and ST. But his reputation as a great defensive coach still persists, undeservedly so.
  7. Over the entire stretch of the Belichick/Brady era? I disagree. I think a lot of people think it's been more about Belichick, or 50/50 at worst. I could be wrong, though. Wouldn't be the first time.
  8. Agreed. The Patriots defense has been elite at times, and without the quality of that defense, there's no doubt that the Patriots wouldn't be as successful as they have been. They wouldn't have been to 8 SBs in the Belichick/Brady era, and they wouldn't have won 5. Like I said, being a top 10 defense for nearly two decades is very impressive. It's just that being a top 5 offense and top 5 ST unit over that same period has been more impressive.
  9. That's an anecdotal opinion that is unsupported by the facts. Patriots defensive DVOA median rank by quarter, 2000-2018: 14, 14, 19, 15. By half: 13, 18. Going by DVOA, the defense has actually been a little bit better earlier in games.
  10. MVP Race

    He just said that Mahomes should get the MVP. I think it's fair to wonder whether this is the start of a superstar career, or if it is more of an outlier season similar to Cam Newton in 2015. I don't know myself and haven't done any analysis on it, but there may similarities there that are worth exploring.
  11. It's a horrible overreaction to say that the Patriots haven't had a good defense since 2004. That's just not true, and is an overreaction to what happened in yesterday's game. However, when you look at the numbers - and if you've been watching the team nearly every week for the entire Belichick/Brady era - there's pretty much no doubt that the offense has outperformed the defense overall. The defense was clearly better through 2004. Since then, it has mostly been the offense that has been responsible for the team's success, along with special teams. From 2000 to 2018, the defense had a median rank of 19th in yards allowed per drive. The usual response to this is that the defense has been a "bend but don't break defense." First of all, a "don't bend and don't break" defense is better. Nonetheless, the "bend but don't break" reputation for the Patriots defense is true to some extent, but not nearly as much as people think. In that same timeframe, the defense has a median rank of 9th in points allowed per drive, and 12th in points allowed per redzone possession. That latter figure indicates that when the team is defending in the redzone, they have been an above average defense. About top one-third. Which is very good, but again, not nearly as great as some people make it out to be. They actually "break" fairly often. The next response is that the Patriots have always been good at takeaways. Again, that is true to an extent. From 2000 to 2018, they had a median rank of 10th in most takeaways. Top 10 is great, don't get me wrong. But again, not as elite as some make it out to be. Special teams and the offense has covered up some of the defense's occasional deficiencies. From 2000-2018, the defensive line of scrimmage per drive has a median rank of 3rd. That is incredible, and means that the offense and ST pins the other team in their own side, and gives them a long field to have to travel on each possession. That makes it easier on the defense. In addition, the offense has a median rank of 7th in yards per drive, meaning they have been able to travel the field to either score or gain field position, which helps the defense. Finally, the team has a median rank of 7th in giveaways, meaning it doesn't give the other team a short field to work with very often. TL;DR: Patriots offense 2000-2018 (median ranks): 4th in offensive DVOA, 7th in yards/drive, 5th in points/drive, 7th in giveaways Patriots defense 2000-2018 (median ranks): 15th in defensive DVOA, 19th in yards allowed per drive, 9th in points allowed per drive, 10th in takeways Patriots special teams 2000-2018 (median ranks): 7th in ST DVOA, 3rd in defense LOS per drive I actually think that Belichick doesn't get enough credit for how elite the offense and special teams have been. But his reputation as a defensive mastermind has long outlived the team's actual defensive performance.
  12. Median offensive DVOA rank, 2000-2018: 4 Median Brady DVOA rank, 2001-2007, 2008-2018: 4 Median defensive DVOA rank, 2000-2018: 15 Median points scored per drive rank, 2000-2018: 5 Median points allowed per drive rank, 2000-2018: 9 So yeah. Right around 2005 or 2006, the offense started performing better than the defense, and has generally done so since (excepting Cassel's year). A top 10 defense over 20 years is nothing to sneeze at, but a top 5 offense surpasses that.
  13. So many miscues. Missed XP, missed FG, Brady with the dumb sack, and then that last play. OUCH
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