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childofpudding

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  1. Seahawks DL Jarron Reed suspended 6 games

    NFL thinks they conduct better investigations than the police. NFL hates law enforcement, unreal.
  2. Best writers/sites

  3. Top 100 Player Countdown for 2019

    lol
  4. Run Game is largely irrelevant

    Neither is the run game largely irrelevant in football nor is bluffing largely irrelevant in poker. Bluffing in poker is what allows one to get paid off on good hands. Otherwise you build a rep as a tight player who only gets his chips in the middle with premium hands. You dont get paid off there against good players. Bluffing is what causes your opponent to put you on a wider range of hands, which causes them to pay you off more often on your good hands. I dont think anyone in this thread has argued that the run game is more relevant than the passing game. Of course it is. But calling the run game largely irrelevant is incorrect.
  5. A thread with William Lee is always a joy. This doesnt have to be an either/or question. Yes, very good rosters. Yes, also propped up by coaching. To reach 9 SBs and win 6 in 18 years in a league designed for parity takes GOAT-level people from the owner to the coach to the QB along with talented surrounding pieces.
  6. Most Overrated QB's of all Time

    A lot of people put Elway too high on lists, and that is precisely why he is overrated. SI had him at #6 a couple years ago (link), CBS Sports had him at #4 (yep) (link) and NFL.com had him at #9 (link). Elway got a lot of hype throughout his entire career because he threw it hard and far. But other than that he didn't stand out from his peers in any way. Led the league just once in passing yards, and never in anything else of value (TDs, passer rating, YPA). He deserves credit for making it to 5 SBs, but he played poorly in three of them. He's fondly remembered and overrated because he played so great in his last SB, and went out on top.
  7. Run Game is largely irrelevant

    Your bolded statement is incorrect, and I showed that in my initial post. Did you even read it? I wrote that "71% of playoff teams had a positive rushing yards differential." Passing efficiency is highly correlated to winning, as is cumulative rushing yards. You whined earlier in the thread about how no one was giving you a detailed and nuanced answer. Then when I do that, you show that you don't really care to hear it. My whole point was that looking at correlations without context is foolhardy. Also, your statement that ANY/A is "the only strongly correlated stat in football" is incorrect. Passer rating is also strongly correlated (not as much as ANY/A but still strong) as is turnover margin.
  8. Run Game is largely irrelevant

    As others have said, no one is arguing about whether passing or rushing is more important in today's game. It's obviously passing. But as an example, comparing efficiency in the passing game to efficiency in the rushing game - and their respective correlation to whether they're a playoff team - does not necessarily equal a like-for-like comparison. It's not always a good idea to compare pass efficiency to run efficiency, or bulk passing to bulk running, and draw conclusions from that. Think about it situationally. 1) A team that builds a lead will run more, so their opponent will more likely play heavy personnel to stop the run. That makes it more likely for the winning team to have their rushing YPC decrease even though their rushing YPG increases. At the same time, when they do pass it, they'll be doing it against a defense that is designed to stop the run, and that will improve their passing YPA even as it limits their passing YPG (because they're not passing it as much). 2) Meanwhile, a team that builds the lead will try to stop the other team from passing, so they will play more dime and quarter personnel. That makes it more likely for the losing team to have their passing YPA decrease even as their passing YPG increases. At the same time, when they do rush it, they'll be doing it against a defense designed to stop the pass, and that will improve their rushing YPC even as it limits their rushing YPG (because they're not rushing as much). Because of the above, playoff teams are more likely to have a higher pass efficiency differential than a run efficiency differential, but are less likely to have a higher cumulative passing yards differential than a rushing yards differential. See http://pfref.com/tiny/kJhg5 According to that link, 71% of playoff teams had a positive rushing yards differential, while only 63% had a positive passing yards differential. Of course this is a chicken-and-egg scenario to some extent, because you don't know how that winning team built its lead. I'd be interested in breaking down the data to look at how playoff teams did specifically in the first half in run and pass efficiency, as well as run and pass bulk yards.
  9. Eagles Extend Carson Wentz

    What he is at the present moment is an oft-injured QB who was inconsistent last year and has yet to prove himself in the postseason. Knowing that, I don't think most GMs make that deal when he still has two years left on his contract. Heck, the Rams haven't extended Goff yet and he was top 10 in several QB categories this past season and led his team to a SB appearance. As for the bolded second part, the Eagles have decided to do just that with this extension. They are passing judgment before letting him play the game fully healthy with a good understanding of the pro game. The deal is debatable precisely because you have to include the qualifier "optimally" in your last sentence.
  10. Eagles Extend Carson Wentz

    I think it's well worth it. After all, Wentz is a proven playoff performer. What's that? He hasn't even played in a playoff game yet? Well, he has shown that he is consistently an elite QB. Say again? Last season he was outside the top 10 in ANY/A, DVOA, PFF's QB ranking and ESPN's QBR? Well, at least he's a rock and never misses a game. Are you serious? He has a long injury history going back to high school? Oh, OK.
  11. Seahawks sue Malik McDowell

    Hopefully Pete doesn't have to testify. Someone tell him that judges don't allow gum chewing in their courtrooms.
  12. Why is it so hard to see future dynasties like the Patriots and 49ers?

    Then what you're actually doing is pointing out the inconsistency of the entire league other than the Patriots over the past two decades, since the Patriots have won 78% of games against their division and 75% against all other divisions (which includes all other divisions' top teams) since 2001. Therefore, since the Patriots have beat up on the rest of the league about as much as they've beat up on the AFCE, your hypothesis that the Patriots wouldn't get as many 1 seeds if they were in some other division is wrong.
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