VanS

I hope you are right but I fear our situation will end up being worse than China. The Chinese government might cover things up but they also limit the free movement of people way more than we do. Right now we are essentially asking people to self-quaratine. I don't know how often you've been out but I still see places like Wal-Mart as crowded as normal. Sure some places like restaraunts are closed but I still see lots of people out and about. China took far more draconian steps. I think things in America will get much worse in April and May. When thousands of people are dying a day from this virus I think you'll see the idea of training camp starting in late July as unlikely.

I look more at how a player looks and moves physically on the field than the end result production when judging overall talent level. For example, how big does he look? I know this is weird to say but sometimes players look smaller or bigger when they make the jump from college to the NFL. I also look at how smooth the player moves. Typically the best athletes make what they do look effortless. I also look for things like how explosive does the guy look compared to others on the field as well as how good his body control is. The best players just look and move different than their peers. To me things like this are readily apparent from the first preseason game.

Never said I was infallible when it comes to projecting players from college to the pros. I can be wrong and when I am I say so. However, in general that rule holds true. All-time greatness is typically readily apparent. Now when a player is young he'll be inconsistent. But the flashes will be there. If a guy never flashes until he's a 23 year old redshirt senior then I take that as a red flag.

His track record on QBs in the draft is pretty amazing in the last few years. In 2016 he had Carson Wentz rated above Jared Goff as the top QB in the draft. Not that radical but he gets credit for being right. In 2017 he had Patrick Mahomes rated as the top QB and was showering him with what looked at the time as over the top praise that has now become prophetic. And finally in 2018 he had Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen rated as the top QBs in the draft ahead of Sam Darnold who everyone else loved. In fact at the time he was most critical of Darnold and Rosen while most of the rest of the media were saying they were the best QBs in the draft. When it comes to QBs in the NFL Draft Chris Simms has been arguably the best evalutor in the media. I don't know many media heads that had Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen rated as the top 2 QBs in 2018 or were calling Patrick Mahomes the second coming of Aaron Rodgers ahead of the 2017 draft.

Actually I can see why he isn't impressed with Tua. Even when healthy I was not enamored with him. He's undersized with a medicre arm at best. Rarely saw the sort of throws we see every Sunday from NFL QBs from him. Also he had such elite talent around him that he would throw short 5 yard passes that would go 80 yards. I never saw the hype with Tua. His injury history only makes taking him in the 1st round even more ridiculous.

No because intangibles matter as well. FTR I was never high on JaMarcus. His weight was a big concern to me. When I see a high level athlete like him who doesn't have the discipline to be in shape then it sends a huge red flag to me about his commitment to the craft. I was similarly not high on Dwayne Haskins for the same reason. He wasn't as fat as JaMarcus but he had a soft pudgy body that showed he was dedicated to being at peak physical condition. I took that as a sign of a poor work ethic.

I made a thread about this before, but did you see that elite talent in Burrow in 2018? I personally have no problem if you believed Burrow was an elite talent in 2018. My issue has always been with people who watched him in 2018 and saw just another guy but then in 2019 they are saying he's a generational prospect. To me true greatness is readily apparent. I simply don't trust a prospect who as a full-time starter goes from below average one year to all-time great the next year. Progression definitely happens but you also need to flash high-end talent early on. IMO Burrow never flashed elite talent in 2018 and its for that reason alone I am not buying into the 2019 hype.

Once again you are citing media reports while I cited the word of an evaluator who made an on the record statement. Bill Polian refers to this alleged consensus about Manning's arm being weaker than Leaf in the excerpt. He said it was nothing more than lies fueled by Leaf's agent Leigh Steinberg in the media. If you have on the record statements from NFL people saying Manning had a weak arm coming out then I'm all for it. But as of now all you posted is the same media reports Bill Polian dismissed in his book. And FTR eventhough I never watched Manning in college, I did watch him in his early years on the Colts and I never heard people talk about his arm as a problem. I also never saw any limitations in his game when it came to arm strength. Did he have an arm like Brett Favre or Marino that everyone was in awe of? No. But he was also not some weak arm QB who was getting by on intangibles. He had elite physical tools to go with elite intangibles. And its that combination that made him arguably the greatest QB of all-time.

Here's an excerpt from the man that drafted him #1 overall: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/11654158/manning-leaf-1998-draft I think you are just going by the media hype. According to the guy who actually made the #1 overall pick Peyton Manning not only had a stronger arm than Ryan Leaf but according to Bill Polian it was one of the strongest he had ever seen. As Manning aged his arm got weaker but his greatness stayed the same because of his mastery of the cerebral parts of the game. I think its those later years where he was still dominant with a weak arm that makes people think his arm was never that strong. I actually remember early 2000s Peyton Manning and I don't ever remember anyone saying his arm strength was lacking. When Peyton was young he was the prototype for the strong arm pocket passing QB. He was the guy you wanted to find in the draft.

Actually no. I have changed my tune on players that I've mis-evaluated several times. For example, I was not that high on Courtland Sutton coming out. I thought he would be a bust. Now I view him as the best young WR in the NFL who will be a superstar for many years to come. And I pretty much knew I was wrong on that after I watched him in his first preseason game as a rookie. The weird thing about sports is no matter how good you think you are at evaluating players there are some guys who totally transform when they go from one level to the next. I try to always be as honest with myself as possible. So when I see that I'm wrong on a player I typically am the first to admit it. I think the main difference between me and ya'll is you guys view hype and statistical production as signs of greatness or talent while I don't. I go by the eye test. Its why I knew I was wrong about Courtland Sutton before he even started to play real games. I watched how he looked on the field. I saw his body control. His physicality. His explosiveness. His catch radius. And I knew immediately after a few snaps that I was dead wrong about him. He was just not gonna be a bust, he was gonna be a superstar. If Joe Burrow impresses my eye test then I'll admit I was wrong just as I was wrong about Courtland Sutton and several other players I don't have time to go into right now. However, don't expect me to be impressed simply because he has a good statistical season as a rookie like Baker Mayfield or Dak Prescott. During Mayfield's rookie season while everyone else was blowing rose petals up his butt, I was one of the few that stuck with my pre-draft evaluation and said he was not as good as those numbers. Now after Year 2, I see people moving closer to my pre-draft evaluation of him as a limited player who did not deserve to be a 1st round pick let alone the #1 overall pick. My methodology is different than most but I am consistent and have little interest in what anyone thinks of me.

Olympics just got postponed a year and they were scheduled to start right around the same time NFL training camps open. As of right now, I view training camps starting on time as a pipe dream.

We'll see. The great thing about sports is in time we'll know who was right and who wasn't.

How on earth did Manning not have elite physical traits? Don't let the old version of him fool you. Young Peyton Manning had a cannon. Plus he was 6'5" 230 lbs. The only thing he lacked physically was mobility. He didn't go #1 overall just cause of his last name.

Oh I watched him. I saw lots of throws that were open because of the scheme and his great receivers. In fact, I was more impressed with Burrow as a runner than a passer. I think many QBs could have done what he did if placed in that situation.

If you think Trevor Lawrence is only slightly better than Burrow and Tua then you're out of your mind. He's worlds better. Stop falling in love with college stats and success. Neither Burrow nor Tua are physically comprable to Trevor Lawrence. He's better than them at EVERYTHING.