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Epyon

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  1. Prop bets: What do you think?

    1. Howard @ 1100 yards I'll go under here... Nagy is going to be pushing the passing attack much more heavily than in previous years, and I think Cohen/Cunningham as possibly even that UDFA Nall (as a "FB") are gonna get some increased overall usage on the field since they are better receiving threats. 2. 7.5 wins? I'm expecting 8-10 and narrowly missing the playoffs (or being the bottom seed Wildcard if we do make it) 3. Allen over 875? Actually going to go UNDER. Mitch is going to be under a ton of pressure this year as the offense is new and uses the passing game more, leading to mistakes (turnovers) as he acclimates. The main factor, however, will be the division of targets that keeps Allen's #s down... He's going to be keyed on (rightly so) as the #1 guy, and I think the ball is spread out enough around him to keep his numbers down. 4. More ints, the D or MT? MT sadly... Roquan might get 2, and Jackson might get another one or two.... but no one else on the Defense is going to be getting picks. I'm very skeptical of Fuller/Prince/Amos repeating last season's level of play and none could catch a cold. Meanwhile as said above, I think with the offense being new, WRs being new, the much more modern approach putting the ball in the air more often, and frankly Mitch being held back by the archaic offense we ran last year add up to a ton of pressure on Mitch for this year, and that should logically lead to more mistakes as he develops. 5. #2 WR Anthony Miller will be the run away #2... possibly even the #1 by targets as teams focus on locking down Allen. 6. Floyd 8 sacks? Under. Vic drops him in coverage too much and there's nothing happening on the other side of the formation, letting teams scheme to stop Floyd.
  2. Watson and Kamara

    Watson's season last year imo only went to confirm a person's pre-existing beliefs about him.... Either he really was the best QB prospect available from his draft class, and he's balling out like a potential Pro Bowler (or even given his TD numbers the "Micheal Jordan of Football", as his college coach hyped him to be) or He's the same inaccurate thrower he was in college, that is overly reliant on having a loaded receiving corps that can carry him.... He's a Cutler-esque in that he's capable of some great plays, but is more or less a turnover machine. Finally, he's going to have a very short career since much of his game (both in college and his rookie year) is predicated on him being a runner, something he frankly doesn't have the size for, and something that even QBs that do have the size to do, can't sustain at the NFL level for long. His rookie year was admittedly above expectations statistically, but even so I expected him to be the best performer of Trubisky/Mahomes/Watson last year.... I'm fairly confident Mitch and Mahomes both end up surpassing him this year, and though I still think Mahomes is the best long term prospect of those 3 (and the guy I wanted to draft last year), I think that our team is more likely to attain success over the next 5 years than either KC or Houston (we're the ascending team, and I think both of them are about to be descending teams)
  3. Overall Draft Grade

    Appreciate the correction. Numerous of the articles I was reading said he was 24 (referencing his age during the coming season..confusingly without making that clear in their article) and other articles made reference to his fall birthday. 24 during the season is obviously better, even if it's still not ideal.
  4. Overall Draft Grade

    It means I was watching westworld while writing that post and not paying tons of attention unless spellchecker flagged it ...meant to say old for his draft class. He's gonna be 25 in the fall.
  5. Overall Draft Grade

    Wasn't the guy I wanted, but Roquan isn't the kind of player that you can complain about. Very high floor, elite ceiling, and unlike Edmunds has good-great instincts for the position. He's not a liability in coverage like Kwiatoski and he's been successful as a blitzer...I am very curious as to the rumors that he failed his combine medicals on some boards, but he clearly is healthy enough to impress the bears staff.... This is honestly Pace's best first round pick, and by a lot... Solid A bordering on A+ The draft was very strong with interior offensive line, and Daniels was one of the best prospects. As an added bonus, C just got deeper and Grasu should hopefully never play another down for us. My only concern here is him coming off injury and the expectation of him stepping in right away as a rookie... beyond that, I'm inclined to want to put him at C and move Whitehair, but that might be overreaction to Whitehair's shotgun snapping issues early last year. Solid A if not A+ (health permitting) People get too worked up over the trade up cost... a meager 4th round pick to grab next year's 2nd rounder this year. I'm 100% OK with the pick, and Miller was great WR value at that point, considering he's arguably one of, if not the outright best WRs of this class....That being said, I won't give this move an A... Miller is a savvy route runner, but he isn't a top tier athlete, is old for his age, has some drop concerns, is already near his ceiling, and is imo a slot only guy. I'd have -significantly- preferred a bet on the upside of DJ Chark, who I think had a higher ceiling, is younger, and would have given us another "burner" to take the top off a defense. Even so, I must concede that Miller will likely contribute way more than Chark would have in his first year or two, and that's assuming Chark ever becomes a good pro (there would have been way more risk in Chark, but after his Senior Bowl I'm buying the idea that it was merely LSU's offense/horrid QB play holding him back). A- I don't like this pick, really at all. That's not to say the prospect himself is bad, just that we could have gunned for a guy who would potentially get playing time on more than Special Teams.... At best, he's bumping off Timu as the #4 ILB.... and while Timu is hardly a great player, he was already pretty decent for a #4 ILB. Player value is a C the positional value was a straight F. I like the guy, and don't mind the positional value... My only concern here was that we left Tyrell Crosby-OT on the board for Detroit to take, and I don't like Massie in a more uptempo "spread-coast" scheme that we're supposed to be running. DL depth is never bad, however. B This dude has been injured on the level of Kevin White. If he's healthy Pace could be a genius who helped fix our OLB situation this late in the draft....That being said, like Kevin White I have no faith whatsoever that he's going to be healthy. What's worse, is that 26 picks later GREEN BAY of all damn teams probably got the steal of the entire draft with Eq St. Brown-WR.... I wasn't a big fan of his, but that kind of value blows this pick out of the water, and this pick honestly felt like a desperate grab for OLB at the expense of the actual board. C- (only that high because we needed OLB options, but I will concede that he has the athleticism to make it a B+ pick) This is another pick where I'm bias. Auden Tate was still on the board here, and I think provides much better utility as a blocker, red zone threat, and as a big body mismatch weapon. That said, we're talking about a 7th rounder here, and Wims might offer a bit more as a STer. C EDIT: Should be noted that time will tell, and snap draft grades don't always matter that much... I think the pick Pace made that I was most excited about at the time was probably Bullard, and yeah being a good pick on paper hasn't totally worked out for him yet. My second favorite Pace pick thus far was Cohen, though I thought he was overdrafted by a solid round or two when we took him. Neither of those snap judgements where particularly accurate (Bullard has largely dissapointed, and Cohen has shown enough that he probably could have gone a round AHEAD of where he went). Overall, I think the top 3 players represent a dramatic shift for Pace, where he's chosen guys that actually have high floors. Snap judgement is that this was probably his strongest overall draft, even if I don't think it was anywhere near his flashiest. B+ overall Day 1 and two where superb, significantly less thrilled with day 3.
  6. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    Agreed... though I fear he's being counted on as one of the "top 4" this year..... Since I don't think Gabriel is a full time kind of guy (I see as more of a mismatch guy like Cohen)..... That being said our offense won't be drawn in crayon this year, and I'm curious to see lots of Cohen rotating in and/or lots of Shaheen/Burton/Sims double TE action which should massively reduce the load the WR group is carrying.
  7. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    Miller, Robinson, Gabriel are roster locks so that's 3 White has $$ tied up, but if he can't beat out a WR5-6 then honestly there's no reason to keep him. That's a very probable 4 I hate to admit it but Bellamy might actually be better than the rest of the list (or at least on par as a WR)... ST value might keep him. Probable 5th Wims I'd imagine goes to the PS if anyone else shows up. 50/50 on #6 3 roster locks, 3 positions potentially up for grabs, with White being the guy who gets to most decide his own fate (unless fate injures him again) Brown, Fowler, Ayers, Bellamy, Wims, Gentry fighting for 2 spots, 3 if white gets broken again or lays an egg and the team just has finally had enough.
  8. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    I like that we've drafted (or UDFA) enough WRs to really put pressure on the depth chart.... Bellamy, Kevin White, and Gentry are going to have to actually compete and earn a spot this year... Though for the record, I'd absolutely expect White or even Bellamy to be capable of "winning" vs late round rookies, I at least like that there will be someone to push them. Real competitiion/depth at WR is so radically different from the Fox years where we'd be taking recycled scraps from the bottom of another teams roster, or even outright cuts and trying to make them into WR2 or WR3s for us. Really liking the Nall-RB pick as well, the more tape I've seen. He looks like a slower and sporadically less physical Jordan Howard as a runner to me, but he also looked buttery smooth in the passing game from the clips I saw, and is capable of some really physical play when he turns that part of his game on. I'd be very confident he bumps off Taquan Mizzell or a fullback (or both) but likely comes in as a 4th guy rather than also knocking off Cunningham. Cohen makes it a bit sketchy to go w/ less than 4 backs since he can't really be a full time guy.
  9. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    2nd UDFA for us Elijah Norris
  10. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    That didn't take long..... Ryan Nall running back apparently our first UDFA
  11. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    Vikes got him with the last pick of the 6th. He was a guy I was hoping for as a late round developmental guy.... but he'd need a "redshirt" year at least to get coached up. Poona Ford-DL looks like he's gonna drop to UDFA, I'd love to bring him in as a backup NT. Auden Tate-WR is a guy who I'm surprised is dropping this badly... He's slow, but his receiver play is so physical We're actually loaded up at WR now, but I'd try and at least bring him to camp and then see whether he can make it or not. EDIT Cincy just got him Jonah Trinnamon-WR is a freak athlete speedster who I think is absolutely worth bringing in as a likely Practice squad guy. Running backs I see Akrum Wadley and Martez Carter (poor man's Tarik Cohen) but nothing that really moves the needle... I'm probably missing at least one guy worth bringing in, but maybe Wadley can compete vs Cunningham and that Ravens guy we never played from last year who's name escapes me at the moment (had to look it up Taquan Mizzell)
  12. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    Greg Senat is an OT, and a basketball convert that I was referring to. (Deadrin Senat is the DT) 6' 6" ,302 lbs, 34 7/8” arms https://www.nfl.com/prospects/greg-senat?id=32462018-0002-5599-82ad-c5d79b4d89a4 Raw developmental prospect for HH to mold.
  13. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    There's actually a ton of prospects for positions we no longer need still on the board.. Eq St. Brown-WR still there (had 2nd round buzz) Poona Ford-DL less surprising but still there Auden Tate-WR there(had some late first buzz pre combine because he plays like a big man) Deon Cain-WR still there. Positions we could use: Akrum Wadley-RB Ade Aruna-Edge (Super athletic... but stupidly raw as a player he'd almost assuredly be a weekly inactive and needs a "redshirt" year) Tolliver II (I only remember him getting burned by Ridley on film, but he was supposed to be a day 2 corner) Toth-OT Senat-OT and before I could finish typing that we took an edge... Kylie Fitts.
  14. 2018 NFL Draft Thread - READ!!!

    Ballage-RB Crosby-OT Shaqueem Griffin-ILB (maybe SS?) are my top 3 targets for round 4. Want an edge rusher, but hate all the options left basically.
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