mission27

Important to note the 1.38% overall CFR they estimated may be significantly overstated because: "We also assumed perfect case ascertainment outside of Wuhan in the age group with the most cases relative to their population size (50–59-year-olds); however, if many cases were missed, the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio estimates might be lower."

Yeah this was brought up a few pages ago. Australia's population density is skewed because there are large parts of the country (i.e. the middle) where almost nobody lives I would imagine the population density in the places people actually live (like New South Wales) is probably pretty similar to Europe and North America. Given that's where the people are and that's where the cases are, that would be a better way to look at it Its the same deal with the US... if you look at the total people / total area we are one of the less dense developed countries, but a lot of Americans live in places like New York and Chicago and Dallas and LA where population density is not any lower than it is in cities in Europe, so the fact that we have big chunks of land where nobody lives in Alaska is irrelevant to how quickly this will spread

That lineup was stacked But why was Jack Howell hitting cleanup??

Where do the bandwagon snow bird Tom Brady fans officially sign up? @bucsfan333 seems like your dictatorship extends to these parts as well, pls lmk

What is the consensus here, do we want Stidham to get a shot or go in another direction? Personally I think he looked really good last pre-season so I'd give him a chance. mission is officially a duel Pats-Bucs fan for the time being but I'll still post in here because I know how much you all love me

I'm just doing gods work spreading the truth

Big spike in France # today. Wonder if there was a change in criteria or a lot of tests got processed or a sign that they are further behind compared to Italy and Spain

except Australia has been slower than other countries to implement and yet hasn't seen the same kind of growth those other countries did... we will see, I am hopeful

key take aways from this article: 1. there is a sustained slowdown in rate of new infections consistent with the MoL theory of seasonality and that the spike last week was due mostly to travelers returning with COVID before border closures - this despite more testing in Australia than in most other countries, so in theory they should be seeing a bigger uptick "Australia reported a sustained fall in the rate of new coronavirus infections on Tuesday, but officials urged people not to become complacent and stressed the need for further strict social distancing policies." 2. it also appears the MoL is correct about low CFR "Based on the completion of more than 230,000 tests, the death rate for Australian cases was below 1 per cent, significantly under the 10 per cent being reported by some other countries and suggesting “early promising signs of the curve flattening,” Hunt said."

https://globalnews.ca/news/6754917/coronavirus-australia-infection-slow-down/

yes, I am right

If only we didnt have so much evidence to the contrary I'm sure Fauci and co. will be shouting from the mountain top, I just worry people will see the low numbers and get distracted by elections and stuff and it wont be as much of a priority as it should and a lot of people will needlessly die next winter

Yeah I agree If this is on the decline in early May across the country which it likely will be, my guess is at least MLB and golf and potentially the NBA / NHL will work with the states and federal government here and in Canada on some way to resume play (very likely without fans) It can be done with testing and would be a very positive thing for morale Culture and importance of team sports in China is not the same as it is here and we're going to have a month or two more to mass produce reliable tests by the time we have to broach this issue

The stuff you are quoting does not say 'we dont think there is any impact from seasonality' It says 'most of these viruses ARE seasonal BUT we dont know to what extent this one will be and either way it wont stop the virus alone' That is literally exactly my position: 1. This is likely to exhibit some degree of seasonality because its a viral respiratory infection 2. The pattern of the data does nothing to disprove that prior and if anything supports it 3. We dont know how seasonal it will be compared to the flu, or common cold, or SARS or MERS... all of which exhibit some degree of seasonality 4. Regardless it wont stop the spread by itself 5. But seasonality could help in helping to slow the spread here and in Europe, with the double edged sword that we are likely to see a second wave next fall (which is basically what every public health expert including Fauci and Birks have said. the fall wave is not because of magic. its because these kinds of viruses get worse in cold weather!) Some people are simply not intelligent enough to understand a nuanced opinion or understand what public health experts are saying and why tbh. This isnt a yes no question. But 'no' is the most wrong answer right now. The only correct answer is 'probably yes to an unknown extent and it (alone) wont save us.'

I mean sort of in that when this virus spreads between domiciles its generally when people venture outside But I think the seasonality point is more relevant to: - How quickly will this spread in the US and Europe once lockdowns are lifted in May or June or July - Are we going to see a major wave 2 next fall?