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About HorizontoZenith

  1. Defense Discussion [2017]

    I've already acknowledged 2014 and 2015 were good/average pass defenses, so I don't know why you keep bringing those seasons up. Also, I'm not "squirming" to a different argument. I brought up the effect of a poor running game on the pass defense NUMBERS a long while back. Believe it, don't believe it, but the old adage about lies, damn lies and something else is a saying for a reason. The statistics of 2012 being a "good" pass defense doesn't make it a "good" pass defense. And I already said why we held teams under their QB rating, completion percentage and yd/att. By your own stats, we held less than half of the teams under their average yards per attempt. Why? Because, like I said, teams ran against us, and they ran well against us. So I don't know why you think your response proves me wrong about the 2012 season. Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver, Miami, Arizona, Baltimore, Atlanta, Houston, Chargers, Giants, Jets, Rams, Patriots and Panthers. I'm gonna say those 17 teams were better pass defenses than us that year. mostly because they were all clearly better defenses than us that year because we allowed 26 points on the road that year and we were not a good defense, which was clear based on Kaepernick obliterating us in the playoffs, and our pass defense wasn't "good" because, as is always the case in the NFL, pass defense rankings lie when you are a bad defense overall. If you want proof from this year... The Bears, Chargers, Bengals and Jaguars? All better pass defenses than the Seahawks based on pass yards per game. Saints, Colts, Jets... All better than the Seahawks based on interceptions this year. I've already admitted to being wrong about 2015 and 2014 pass defenses based on evidence and looking over the year. How are you incapable of admitting that the 2012 defense, which gave up 300 yard games to Skelton and Gabbert, was a bad pass defense? IT WAS A BAD PASS DEFENSE BECAUSE IT WAS A BAD DEFENSE PERIOD. Just admit it because it wasn't a good pass defense and I'm sick of arguing this. And if you're going to continue with that, "THey kept so and so under season averages..." You're going to have to tell me that, right now, the Bears, Chargers, Bengals, Saints, Colts and Jets are better than the Seahawks pass defense this year.
  2. Green Bay Packers 2017 Playoff Watch

    Because you can't win with a poor QB. Can't win with poor QB, can't win Super Bowl with poor defense. There are at least 20 quarterbacks good enough to win a Super Bowl with the number one defense in the NFL right now. Peyton Manning was not Peyton Manning and he won the Super Bowl. Russell Wilson could have been any QB in the world and the Seahawks still win that Super Bowl. Flacco won a Super Bowl. Eli Manning, third year starter Aaron Rodgers, Rex Grossman would have won a Super Bowl if he just handed it off instead of fumbled and intercepted the game away. Brad Johnson, first year Brady, Trent Dilfer... If you count Manning as an average QB the year the Broncos won (and he was a bad QB that year), and if you count Brady as average the first year he won (and he was), you're looking at: 9 great quarterbacks. 5 average quarterbacks. 3 bad quarterbacks. Then look at the defenses... Starting from last year, the Super Bowl winners and scoring defense (defense/S/T scores removed): #1 scoring defense. #4 scoring defense. #7 scoring defense. #1 scoring defense. #9 scoring defense. #21 scoring defense. * #2 scoring defense. #18 scoring defense. * #2 scoring defense. #15 scoring defense. * #11 scoring defense. * #4 scoring defense. # 3 scoring defense. #5 scoring defense. #1 scoring defense. #6 scoring defense. #1 scoring defense. #4 scoring defense (1999 Rams, the team everybody remembers for their offense). For the past 18 Super Bowl winners, 14 of the teams have been a top 10 scoring defense. 11 of them have been top 5. Only four of them were outside the top ten. Let's look at the four teams that WERE NOT top ten in scoring defense, particularly their playoff performances: *Giants second Super Bowl, the Giants allowed 2 points, 20 points, 17 points and 17 points in the playoffs. That's an average of 14 points a game in the playoffs. They held Rodgers and Brady to 17 points each. *Giants first Super Bowl, the Giants allowed 14 points, 17 points, 20 points, 14 points. Average of 16.25 points. Their DEFENSE won that Super Bowl. *Saints Super Bowl, they allowed 14, 28, 17 points. Average of 19.6 points. *Colts Super Bowl, they allowed 8, 6, 34, 17 points. Average of 16.25 points. Bottom line, if I have a choice between Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or a guaranteed top 5 scoring defense for the next ten years, I'm taking that defense every. Single. Time. Tom Brady has never won a Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers has never won a Super Bowl. Peyton Manning has never won a Super Bowl. Drew Brees never won a Super Bowl They've helped teams with good defenses win Super Bowls. What do people remember about Brady's 5 Super Bowls? His first 3 they won grueling defensive struggles that wouldn't have gotten to field goal attempts without defense. Against the Seahawks? The interception. Against the Falcons? Brady wouldn't have had a chance if it wasn't for Hightower. Not. A. Chance. Would Rodgers have won if Matthews didn't force that fumble? If Collins didn't get that touchdown? Probably not. Would the Saints have beaten the Colts without that Manning pick six? Probably not. Defense wins championships. That's why I dislike Rodgers. Yes, he's the greatest QB of all time. I really don't even doubt that, and neither should any non-Patriots fan (because Brady is clearly the second best), but Brady hasn't done squat without great defenses (and he won't even get to the Super Bowl this year), and neither has Rodgers. If I was a GM, I would call the Browns right now and say, "Hey, first of all, stockpiling draft picks doesn't work if you don't use them. Second, why don't you send Myles Garrett and your first and second round picks to me and I'll give you Rodgers? He should be healthy by next year." Myles Garrett, the first or second overall pick next year, our pick plus a very high second round pick gets us to a Super Bowl within two years.
  3. GDT Week 7 - Saints @ Packers

    A win here will switch me back to believe mode. I don't expect a win here because I am not happy with our defense this season. Even when they were healthy for those three plays.
  4. Green Bay Packers 2017 Playoff Watch

    I definitely like the mega haul trade Rodgers idea. I know it's dumb, so don't argue with me whether or not it's dumb. I still want to do it. If Hundley is even Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor level, I'd trade Rodgers for three first round draft picks. It would have to include the first overall pick, and there'd have to be an obvious pass rusher available for that first pick, but I'd definitely do it. Brady doesn't win Super Bowls, quarterbacks don't win Super Bowls, defense wins Super Bowls. It helps to have Brady/Rodgers, but even Brady/Rodgers don't win without top 10 scoring defenses.
  5. What movie are you watching v1

    I watched What Happened to Monday and Gerald's Game. Netflix is getting better at making movies.
  6. No. People will point to the 2008 Patriots winning 10 or 11 or however many games they won, but people forget that the Patriots went 18-1 the year before. Their team was stacked with talent, they had an easy schedule, they remained mostly healthy, and they still missed the playoffs. The only thing you can really blame on Thompson was one draft class (Randall/Rollins), but he tried to fix that miss this year by signing House and drafting King. So everything that was his fault, he seems to have remedied. Can't and really shouldn't plan on your top guy getting hurt for the rest of the year. Hundley could probably keep us competitive for a 2-4 game stretch, but not much more than that.
  7. Kenny Clark needs some love

    Vince Wilfork had 16 sacks in 13 seasons as a nose tackle and he was a 3 time second team all pro, 1 time all-pro, 5 time pro bowl nose tackle. I'd like my first round safeties to touch the QB now and then, but when a safety is a safety and a nose tackle is a nose tackle, I know that they're not gonna be getting to the QB often because that is not what they do because Kenny Clark is a nose tackle.
  8. The only reason I believe this is a possibility is because the only years we win the Super Bowl are years I believe there's no chance we win the Super Bowl. I believe we have zero chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. I believe we have zero chance of beating the Saints, Lions, Steelers, Panthers, Vikings or Lions without Rodgers. That's 8 wins max, which won't get us to the playoffs.
  9. It's time to take a stand (Damarious Randall)

    @minnypackerfan brought up a Ben Fennell (I think) Tweet showing Randall avoiding contact, and I feel like I've seen at least five other times he made awful attempts at tackling. That, plus his temper tantrum after clearly giving up a TD, then his penalty after his pick six, then the way he responded when asked about it... I don't want Damarious Randall on this team anymore. I was dead wrong about him. Davante Adams had a bad second year, got healthy, manned up and dominated. Damarious Randall had a bad second year, got healthy and turned into a child that I don't want on this team. Anybody disagree? Edit: Apparently Randall saw a flag. Still don't like it, still think he actively avoids contact, still think he's a selfish player that should have been a receiver with his personality.
  10. Kenny Clark needs some love

    Don't you remember how mad people were? Even after his rookie year, after he flashed insane potential towards the end of last year, people were wildly upset. Can't tell you who they were because I don't remember, but everybody wanted Jack, Nkemdiche, Butler, Chris Jones or somebody else. And do you remember how many people were mad that we "only" took Martinez that year? Now both of them have been our best performers on defense this year.
  11. Kenny Clark needs some love

    He's exceeded pretty much everybody's expectations. Nobody expected him to even be an okay player for us, and he's turning into one of our best. He just turned 22 years old, too. Great pick that Thompson will never get credit for.
  12. Defense Discussion [2017]

    I don't buy this at this point. The last part yes, but I'm not buying into Randall right now. King I have full faith in going forward, but as far as our corners, House was what everybody said he would be (meh). Feel like we have to go after Butler, Fuller, Joyner, Robey-Coleman on the low end, or maybe even Trumaine Johnson, Vontae Davis or Amukamara on the high end if we want to fix this pass defense for next year. Unless we change coordinators to a DC that runs simple coverage schemes, a rookie isn't coming in and thriving for us next year.
  13. Defense Discussion [2017]

    Okay, does it account for which QB was playing? Because Kolb was better that year than Skelton, and Skelton had 300+ yards against us for the Cardinals while Kolb was hurt. Or Hasslebeck/Locker for the Titans? Does it account for home/away games? Because some teams are better at home. It might have been good by that year's standards, but I wouldn't call it good by any other standards. At least not towards the end of the year. If I met you halfway and called it average, that would still be three bad years, three average years and only one good year. With this year looking like it will be a bad year. I still don't think you can neglect the rest of our defense that year, either. If your running game is bad, it's going to make your passing defense look better and vice versa. It's one of the biggest reasons our pass defense last year ranked so low even before the injuries got really bad. Teams couldn't run against us last year. 2012 Run defense: Gore had 112 yards in week 1 (7 yard average). Bears couldn't run, so Cutler threw under 150 with 4 interceptions. Lynch ran for 98 yards. Saints didn't try to run, so Brees had 446 yards and 3 TD in Green Bay. Brown had 84 yards (4.9 average), and Wayne had 212 receiving yards. NOT a good pass defense. Forsett averaged 6.7 yards per carry. Rams averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Jaguars couldn't run against us, so Blaine Gabbert had a career high 300+ yards, 1 TD, no INT. For comparison, he had averaged 148 yards a game up to that point in his career and had never thrown for more than 260 in a game. Cardinals couldn't run against us, so John Skelton had 300 yards passing. Lions ran well against us. Giants ran all over us, and Eli had a good game passing, too. Peterson ran for over 200 yards against us, so why would Ponder throw for more than the 119 yards? Lions ran for over 150 against us. In the last game of the season, Peterson ran for 199 yards AND Ponder threw for 250+ yards and 3 touchdowns. Most of the games we kept a QB low on passing yards were games (like twice against Vikings) where they ran all over us. Why would you pass if you're running the ball that well? This is why I don't like DVOA. Christian Ponder averaged 183 yards a game that year. We kept him under his average, but is that so hard to do when he had passing totals of 58, 63 and 91 because Peterson was the MVP of the league that year? I forgot why I started arguing this honestly, but the reason I'm still arguing it is it's clear to me that late round picks aren't cutting it anymore with this defense. Clinton-Dix was the highest pick and he's either having a down year or he overachieved last year and the year before. Either the secondary needs an elite DB prospect in this draft, or we need an elite pass rusher in this draft. The defense is at a tipping point right now I think, and one more bad offseason instead of a good offseason for our defense could send us into a Saints style spiral where our defense remains bad for years. We kept Jay Cutler 90 yards under his average twice. Is that an accomplishment worth factoring into DVOA? It was Jay Cutler. We had his number. Not a number to be SUPER proud of having, and yet it really helped in DVOA. For comparison, the good quarterbacks we played: Brees - He had 123 yards OVER his season average against us. Luck - Had 90 yards OVER his season average against us. Some bad quarterbacks, like Gabbert, had season games against us, too. Gabbert had 140 yards over his season average against us. So we kept Kaepernick, Cutler, Wilson, Schaub, Bradford, Stafford, Locker and Ponder under their season averages for yards a game. We allowed Brees, Luck, Gabbert, Skelton and Eli Manning to go over their season averages against us. Is that an accomplishment worthy of suggesting we were a good pass defense that year? No. DVOA doesn't account for things like that, which is why it's not a way to rationalize that defense being a good pass defense. DVOA might work on an individual QB analysis to see if we played better on an individual level against individual quarterbacks, but it doesn't work over a whole season because when we couldn't stop the run, teams didn't pass against us and vice versa.
  14. Defense Discussion [2017]

    Honestly, I don't know what DVOA means, and I don't think I trust anything that says we were the 7th best pass defense in 2012 when we gave up 24 touchdown passes to the quarterbacks we played that year. Those were some really, really, really historically bad quarterbacks. We literally played both Cutler and Christian Ponder twice that year. You're not going to convince me 2012 was a good pass defense year. Because it wasn't.
  15. Defense Discussion [2017]

    I don't really care what DVOA suggests, 2012 wasn't a really good pass defense. I already said 2014 was good. I said 2015 was average, and it was. Statistically speaking, they've been good. When it comes to which secondary you'd pick to go up against Brees/Brady/Ryan/ other good quarterbacks, they weren't good.