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Outpost31

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Everything posted by Outpost31

  1. This is the game that gets McCarthy fired.
  2. Saints Watch- Additional First Round Pick (0-1)

    Yeah, but then our pick will be worse.
  3. Saints Watch- Additional First Round Pick (0-1)

    Most quarterbacks win with two interceptions? Which league you watching?
  4. Saints Watch- Additional First Round Pick (0-1)

    He's just angry he can't troll me over a good Trubisky game against the Buccaneers.
  5. Saints Watch- Additional First Round Pick (0-1)

    Lol, you clearly don't watch the Packers. Packers getting a gift from the refs is like Donald Trump getting a Christmas present from Hillary Clinton.
  6. Trade Deadline Thread

    Trade Deadline is 4 o'clock on the 30th of October. Nine days away. Dante Fowler just got into a locker room fight with that Y name guy in the locker room after their loss. Time is now to pounce. Gute it done.
  7. Saints Watch- Additional First Round Pick (0-1)

    We're gonna have the 24th and 25th overall picks in the draft. That will be fun. We will double down on pass rushers and they will both end their careers with over 100 sacks.
  8. Random Packer News & Notes

    We need pass rushers, not corners.
  9. This Is Rival Talk v1.0

    4/14 for 43 yards against a disciplined defense for Trubisky. This is what I'm talking about.
  10. This Is Rival Talk v1.0

    Yeah, not drudging up that argument again. It's one thing to make moves with a QB on a rookie deal. It's another thing to make moves that cost you two first round picks with a QB on a rookie deal who hasn't shown that he's capable of being the QB the team needs him to be. Trubisky has looked good against the Buccaneers and the Dolphins. He has looked average against the Packers and Seahawks. He looked awful against the Cardinals.
  11. This Is Rival Talk v1.0

    If the Patriots have to beat the Bears, I hope they just absolutely destroy that defense, and I hope Trubisky has a terrible game. I either want the Bears to beat the Patriots, or for the Bears to come crashing back to the reality that they're just not a good team and that they weren't ready to make that big move for Mack.
  12. 2019 Draft Discussion

    Tomorrow I'll have more time and I'll go through complete drafts with a bust rate for every position. Even though this isn't really about that. Bust/not bust... It doesn't matter. What matters is that bust or hit, premium positions are better. Obviously you'd rather have a hit WR/TE/ILB/IOL over a bust EDGE/OT/QB/DL/CB/ but the unpredictability of the draft suggests that, since every pick is a non-guarantee, you go with the non-guarantee that can do more for your team and provide more value. This is especially true considering what a bust at a premium position can do for you. If a WR busts, you really can't try them at TE or anything. Any value they have on special teams, CB provides more. If a TE busts, you ain't got jack ****. If an ILB busts, you can't try them on the EDGE because they'd be an EDGE if they could. If a guard or center busts, they aren't suddenly better at a tougher position (tackle). Even the worst EDGE busts can provide depth, and third string EDGE is on the field more than any other backup position in football. A busted OT usually, almost always, becomes at worst a serviceable IOL. Again, rotational DL are important in this league. Etc. Yeah, a QB provides no value whatsoever in a bust situation, but they're the most premium position there is, so there's that. So you take a Schrodinger Cat and change the alive/dead thing to hit/bust, having a pass rusher/CB/S/OT/QB is always more valuable than a WR/TE/IOL/ILB.
  13. Rodgers is completing 58% of his passes in the first half this season. Rodgers has 3 touchdowns and 3 turnovers in the first half this season. Rodgers has a QB rating of 97.4 (without today included). His lowest since his first year as a starter. Rodgers has been sacked 12 times for 88 yards (without today included). Literally the only time Rodgers has looked anything close to his contract was when he was LITERALLY FORCED to be an efficient passer who didn't have the ABILITY to extend plays, and guess what! We came back and won the game from 20 down. THIS IS IRREFUTABLE PROOF THAT THE OFFENSE CAN THRIVE WITHOUT AARON CHRIST RODGERS MAKING THINGS HAPPEN. Aaron Rodgers is NOT the QB people act like he is. Just because he has the ability to do what he does does not make him great. His great plays need to be looked at through the understanding that he has two plays where he fails to move the ball or takes a sack for every big play he makes by waiting too long to make things happen. He is the most stubborn, self-centered, pompous QB I have ever seen play the game. Even Tom Brady, who takes a lot more credit than he deserves for New England's success, is able to take what the defense gives him. He uses literally everybody on his team regardless of whether or not he trusts them. He's been throwing to Dorsett for eff's sake. Aaron Rodgers throws himself up on a cross and acts like he's some Christ figure every time he throws to a receiver like ESB, MVS or Jeff Janis and gives the sideline a look like, "I tried!" when he overthrows them by 15 effing yards. When are people going to wake up to his BS? WHEN IS HE GOING TO WAKE UP TO HIS OWN BS? Our defense is good this year. Not great, but it's good, and that's all it needs to be if Rodgers would get his head out of his own pretentious butt hole and do what's necessary to move this offense. We should have either refused to re-sign him, or we should have traded him. We had literally every chip, and now we get this in return.
  14. 2019 Draft Discussion

    I actually never made a list of premium positions drafted. All I've done is show literally every non-premium position drafted in the past four drafts. They should show the bad because I showed every single one. If I had shown a list of only the good premium positions picked, I'd be presenting an unfair argument. If I showed only the bad non-premium positions, I'd be presenting a bad and unfair argument. I did neither of those things. Therefore, to cherry pick from past years is presenting an unfair argument. He asked me, "What about Beckham?" Unfair argument. Why? Because Donald was taken immediately after him, and it was cherry-picking the best WR taken in that draft. It neglected Watkins and Benjamin. So in the best draft probably in 20 years for receivers (Evans/Beckham), there were two hard busts. In that same year, Clowney, Mack and Ford were pass rushers. 0 percent bust rate for pass rushers, 50% for receivers. This is why it's important to present the entire class. That same exact draft had Barr, Shazier, Mosely and Marcus Smith drafted at ILB. Again, 50% bust rate. Barr has regressed every single year of his career. Looked like a damn animal first year, downward progression and now he's completely meh. If he had just asked, "What about Shazier and Mosely..." So to answer your question, I'm asking for the complete list because it's the only fair way to analyze a draft. I provided the complete list of non-premium players over the past 4 years, and every one of them looks bad. Every one. To take out this year for the sake of giving careers a chance to develop, here are your non-premium positions (ALL OF THEM) over the past 3 years: Does any one of the following players seem like a good investment of a premium draft pick? Shaq Thompson, Stephone Anthony, Darron Lee, Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Reuben Foster, Cam Erving, Joshua Garnett, Perriman, Dorset, Cooper, White, Parker, Agholor, Coleman, Fuller, Doctson, Treadwell, Ross, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Howard, Engram, Njoku. If yes, who? If no, isn't it odd that for three straight years, 24 picks provided little for the future of their team? 24 picks and not one of them is especially impactful. Does that not REMOTELY tell you that: A. Non-premium positions provide non-premium return B. Maybe the NFL is changing even more to prove that these positions aren't all that valuable?
  15. Random Packer News & Notes

    So we worked out Eddie Pleasant, then he signs with the Cardinals. Either we decided not to sign him, or he chose the Cardinals over us, and I don't know which one is more depressing. The fact that we're working out two safeties when both of ours are healthy is also frustrating as hell. There's nobody available right now that's better than what we've got. There certainly WAS. Eric Reid... It's like acknowledging we've got a problem, but... It's like having a leak and going to Home Depot to get a cheaper kind of duct tape because maybe it will work better.
  16. Bye Week Assessment Thread

    My assessment of the bye week is that we lost it. No trades. Feels like we've given up on this season on anything other than getting more playoff experience and another playoff loss.
  17. This Is Rival Talk v1.0

    Cannon isn't playing for the Patriots, either. Bears about to be REALLY confident in their team, or they'll face reality.
  18. 2019 Draft Discussion

    Nelson was picked by the Eagles fired GM. Who was, in fact, fired. It's not a flawed logic. Dolphins, Bears, Lions, Bengals and one other team I can't remember led the league over the past ten years in ILB/IOL/TE/WR first round selections. I think it was the Titans. What does that tell you?
  19. 2019 Murphy / Gute Off-Season moves

    The issue for me is that I can't see a scenario where a chance on a great receiver/TE/IOL/ILB is ever greater than a chance on an equally talented player at a more premium position. Obviously if a receiver touted as a first overall talent was to fall to the mid-twenties for an inexplicable reason, yeah, it would be tempting. But typically, players fall where they ought to fall for an explicable reason, so chances are in the .000s of a percent I'd ever do it. The draft is not a science, every single pick is a risk without a guarantee, which means 999,999 times out of 100,000 times, I take the more premium position.
  20. 2019 Murphy / Gute Off-Season moves

    Nope, tackles can play guard a whole hell of a lot better than guards can play tackle. Few tackles can't play guard. If a guard could play tackle, he'd be a tackle because tackle is more important. If you drafted 4 consecutive tackles, chances are you've got the best line in football. What does 4th, 5th, 6th best player matter? If the 6th best pass rusher in a draft is anywhere near as equally rated as the #1 receiver, you take the pass rusher. Really quickly, look at the good pass rushers taken after the first round in the NFL right now. Then look at the good receivers taken after the first round in the NFL right now. You'll find that you can't get the pass rushers after the first round the way you can get receivers. Additionally, tell me how many teams won a Super Bowl or sustained success without a number one pass rusher, then without a #1 receiver. Just use our team right now. Are we a receiver away, or are we a better pass rush away?
  21. 2019 Murphy / Gute Off-Season moves

    No scheme has a Tampa 2 or any coverage scheme where a LB is more important than a pass rusher. That's like saying Earl Thomas would be more valuable to us than Khalil Mack. Under speculative grading scheme of 1-100. 100 being all-time great, 90 being Hall of Fame, 80 being great career. Draft day 2000, no hindsight goggles: If the Bears had a draft grade on Urlacher of 100 and Abraham a draft grade of 80, yes, great pick. If the Bears had a draft grade of 90 on Urlacher and 80 on Abraham, no, not great pick. Pressure is always more important than coverage. Period. End of story. It worked out for the Bears. Barely. Still doesn't mean it was the right decision. Still didn't result in anything, and unfortunately we can't see what might have happened if the Bears had drafted It's like investment. If you invest 1,000 dollars on your light alcoholic uncle's opinion rather than an established and professional financial advisor and your drunk uncle's investment opportunity manages to get you a hundred thousand in profits and the other guy's would only have netted you 80 thousand, that doesn't mean you made the right investment, it just means you got lucky. You've also got to consider that things have changed since 2000. It made more sense in 2000 to do that than it does now. There have been no less than a dozen major rule changes to defense that have made ILB, WR, IOL and TE less valuable. Even if I was willing to admit that it made more sense to draft those positions in 2000 (and I'm not), that doesn't hold up to today's scrutiny. Even in 2000, Urlacher could level receivers in the middle of the field, and he did. Can't do that now. It's why safeties have been devalued, too. All you can do on defense these days is pressure the QB and cover receivers. Can't hit them high, can't hit them low. Since EDGE players have to be better at beating their man quickly enough and well enough to give them a clear shot on the QB faster (can't hit them too late), and be in a position to tackle them perfectly (can't hit low, can't hit high), good pass rushers have gone up exponentially in value. The value Urlacher had in 2000 is not the value he would have now. Is it any wonder that there are no household name linebackers in the league right now? No. We've got a top 10 ILB on our team right now and he goes almost unnoticed to the naked eye. In fact, the PFF grade between Martinez and Kuechley is 2 points. Just two. Bobby Wagner is the best ILB in the league right now and do you think even 50% of casual NFL fans know his name anywhere near the amount people knew Urlacher's name? Ray Lewis' name? No.
  22. 2019 Murphy / Gute Off-Season moves

    Julio Jones was absolutely not a good draft pick. It has done precisely **** for the Falcons. Same with Urlacher. You end up with Hall of Fame players at the least important positions and what good is it? It's not even about what they turned into, either. It's the decision at the time. We're also using hindsight here. Even if you pick a Hall of Fame player at one of those positions, it was still the wrong decision. There's no magic ball GMs have. There isn't some great disparity between draft prospects. You don't look at one player and know beyond a shadow of doubt they are a Hall of Fame player. The Bears probably had a similar grade of Urlacher as they did of Abraham. Urlacher was certainly a better player than either Ellis or Abraham, but he absolutely was a worse pick than either of them. Hindsight proved Urlacher to be a better player than either of them, that doesn't mean he was the better pick at the time. Assume Ellis or Abraham had been as clear Hall of Fame players as Urlacher. What would you be saying now? So unless you have a crystal ball - and you don't - picking the more premium position is the right decision. It's as simple as that. Look at Julio Jones. You've got Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Tyron Smith after him. Let's not pretend like Julio Jones was had a draft grade on him wildly higher than either of those three players. Let's say a draft grade goes like this: 90-100 - Hall of Fame 80 - 90 - Great career 70 - 80 - Good ten year career The only way drafting Julio was acceptable was if they had a 90 grade on him and a 70-80 grade on Tyron Smith, Watt, Aldon Smith. You take a great career at a premium position every single time over a Hall of Fame career at a non-premium position. History shows that teams who draft premium positions have more success than teams who go with these crap positions. If you know that WR, TE, ILB, IOL is going to have a better career than that QB, RB, OT, DL, EDGE, CB, draft him. Good. You don't know. Since you don't know, it's better to be wrong on that QB/RB/DL/EDGE/CB than it is on that WR/TE/ILB/IOL
  23. 2019 Murphy / Gute Off-Season moves

    It's a simple matter of building a team with finite resources. You get one first round pick every year. You get one second round pick every year. You get one third round pick every year. You get one fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh round pick every year. You have to make a roster of 53 players. Longevity is not guaranteed. First round is where the 32 best players get taken. Second round is where the next 32 best players get taken. So on. You want your premium positions (QB, OT, DL, EDGE, CB) to be your best players. With finite resources, you spend your premium allotted investment capital on the most important positions. A team can never have enough good tackles (if you have 4 starting caliber Offensive Tackles, you've probably got a damn good offensive line) A team can never have enough good defensive linemen. A team can never have enough good pass rushers or defensive backs. ILB, WR, TE, IOL are the four least-important positions in the NFL. ESPECIALLY in today's NFL. Why would you use your premium investment allotment on the least important positions in football? You have a need and you want to draft based on need? Do it in the second round. Urlacher was not more of a game changer than Abraham was. The best linebacker all time provides less value than, say, the tenth best pass rusher all-time. Urlacher was an all-time great coverage linebacker. That still didn't help the Bears all that much. If you think Urlacher took that Bears team to the Super Bowl in 2006 alone, you're wrong. Three other Bears defenders made the pro bowl that year, and that didn't include Mark Anderson, who had 12 sacks for the Bears that year, Charles Tillman and an elite defensive team. Urlacher was drafted in 2000. They went to the playoffs 4 times in his 12 year career.
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