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  1. Needs 1 more season to finish Top 5 in passing yards and TDs. He'd stay Top 10 for the forseeable future while waiting for induction. The historical precedents are the following: Dave Krieg retired 8th in TDs & Yards and didn't sniff the Hall. He made 3 Pro Bowls and went 3-6 in playoffs so certainly below Rivers resume. Sonny Jurgensen retired 3rd in TDs and 4th in yards and appeared in only 1 playoff game, made it on his 4th ballot. Lead the league in yards five times and TDs twice with 5 Pro Bowls and two First Teams. It really depends on which of the two Rivers is closer to. 8 Pro Bowls, Lead league in yards and TDs once each (separate seasons) with 123-101 record in regular season and 5-6 in playoffs making 1 conference title game. You also have to look at his peers. In his favor is the fact Manning retired well before him but against him is the fact Brady, Eli, Ben and Brees are going to be real close to his initial induction years. You also have to throw in Rodgers who probably doesn't have that many years left. That's 5 guys clearly ahead of him on the pecking order for his position. Depending on backlog you also have Matt Ryan who could come up ahead of him too.
  2. Also, a really important factor to note with progression is ticket sales. Tix for St. Louis games going forward start at $53 a pop. Averaging say $70 for the 29,000 sold is over 2 million before fees, etc. That's decent money when you consider the rental for the stadium in St. Louis is $700,000 for the 4 game regular season plus $100k for additional playoff game if it happens. I can't find concrete numbers for team salaries but going off averages it's likely under 3 mill per team. So assume ticket sales for 4 regular season games is $8 mill total before fees and overhead, this doesn't include concessions or store purchases. That should theoretically cover the stadium and salary costs at least. Unless I'm missing something. It'll obviously take for the season to end for us to know total net losses but keep in mind McMahon can use losses to write off taxes. He accounted for a total $375 mill loss over 3 years and again unless I'm missing something he seems to be well below that after granted 3 weeks.
  3. Choosing LA over San Diego was the wrong move from a fan stand-point but it's clear McMahon was gong for exposure, which even with the lower attendance he is getting in LA. I also think it was expected the league would expand by 2 teams after year 2 if things went well and in that scenario San Diego and Oakland make the most sense and I think they would indeed get teams. The viewership doesn't surprise me with the scorelines. You've had 5 of 12 games be competitive and of those 5 I believe only 2 were really good finishes. The league obviously needs more close, down to the wire games and obviously when the wins matter more. For week 4 the Dallas/Houston match-up can do wonders if it's a good close game, same deal for Seattle-St. Louis actually.
  4. My picks with Brady: 1. Cowboys 2. Raiders 3. Chargers 4. Titans And although I believe a lot more teams will make the call I think Brady wouldn't look past the above four. The Titans being in the AFC South and having that run game with Vrabel coaching have an arguement but it's not as strong as the other 3. I don't think playing in the same division as the Chiefs bothers Brady all too much. But I do think it's hard to look past the Cowboys for their talent and weak division along with it being in the NFC and Jerry Jones the owner. There's also a ton of money to be made outside football.
  5. I think Cowboys make sense for the division, talent around and management wanting the spotlight. While Vegas makes sense for talent and location as well as being closer to the west coast. I really think it comes down to those two although the Chargers are obviously going to be considered until they're not.
  6. Probably Top 20. Gotta think off the top in SB era: Sterling, Rice, Owens, Moss, Fitz, Bruce, Brown, Carter, Andre, Calvin, Reed, Lofton, Irvin, Cliff Branch. That's 14. Steve Smith, Wayne, Harrison, Stallworth, Beleitnikoff, Ward, Largent are the only others I'd consider over him and that's 7 and his career ain't done and I don't think I'd put all of them ahead.
  7. Yeah. Trade for a ransom if you get Brady.
  8. This thread will blow past 100 by week 3. I'm rooting for the Hawks.
  9. Euro division of 4 teams, 2 in England and 2 in Germany make the most logistical sense. And yes, I'm assuming all of those teams would be losing money initially if not at least 2 of them. But the stadiums are there (although could be upgraded) and in a 4 team division the travel would be greatly mitigated. Obviously that begs the question of adding 8 teams to have even 5 divisions per Conference, however given the circumstances the league could theoretically have an extended schedule for the Euro division where instead of playing 6 games against eachother they played 9 or even 12. But scheduling games with those teams outside the division now would seem complicated, in a 16 game season. However if the league extended to 17 games that would bring in a whole bunch of logistics. But having 1 lone team across the Atlantic makes so sense to me. Yeah sure, Toronto is the lone foreign rep in two leagues but geographically it's not a 6 hour flight for most teams. So whether you have to specially design a 4 team division OR you wait for a mega 8 team expansion or some other type of re-alignment like 2 euro teams and 2 NA team with six 6 team divisons then that makes more sense. Expanding to 36 teams and having 6 divisions does make the most short-term sense. I imagine Bills-Pats-Ravens-Jets and 2 EU teams would make sense geographically.
  10. x0x

    Tom Time

    Vegas and Los Angeles make a lot of sense because of the stadiums and where they are located. It's hard to consider teams like Indianapolis or Tennessee from a lifestyle perspective. The more prolific these players become the free agency market boils down to location, location, location. Given the 2022 Super Bowl is in Los Angeles and obviously it's just that much closer to post-career Brady though makes me think Chargers.
  11. Well Vick won 2 playoff games, including in Green Bay. So right now that's a big NO from me. Gotta understand eras. More aggressive defense in Vick's day and I would argue he had a significantly weaker offense to work with. I can also bring up 1990 Randall Cunningham for a duel threat QB season. Everything now is tainted because of the heavy bias towards offenses. And it's hard to simply say passing TDs are inflated. Inflated by how? And scrambling QBs are way more common these days. Like Marino, there is no real comparison to what Vick was. People can only compare numbers. I'm still more impressed by Vick and given how handicapped defenses are I probably always will be.
  12. The standards are going to drop moving forward with early retirements and how the position has changed. Christian McCaffrey has had two pretty massive seasons. Like, the reception totals are pretty insane for a non-Larry Centers type guy. So he could get in with "just" a couple more really. Ezekiel Elliot & Derrick Henry are in the same vein but being more traditional backs they need more accumulation. Keep in mind Terrell Davis is in because of his playoff resume and Priest Holmes would be in too if he had a bigger playoff resume (as it is, he still had the greatest game for a RB in a loss out of the 2 played). So in Derrick Henry's case, maybe if he lead the league in rushing and won a Super Bowl with great numbers he'd already get in, eventually and same could be said for Elliot who has more career numbers. Currently I put Elliot slightly ahead. 4. Saquan Barkley 5. Nick Chubb
  13. I find it's easier to mark off the cities that wouldn't be good options: Sacramento & Memphis struggle with attendance of their NBA teams and until their new stadium the Kings were going to relocate while Memphis is the next likeliest relocation target. Oklahoma City is doing well with the NBA so far but will be going through their first rebuild stage and are one of the smallest markets. Salt Lake's only pro team is valued 19th of 30 which isn't bad but when you consider how relatively remote the city is being the main hub in the state and the average income, the question is how passionate fans would be to support an NFL team which would require a new stadium and higher prices than their college team. St. Louis lost their team just recently because they wouldn't build a new stadium and that's the 2nd time in 25 years so unlikely any time soon. Mexico City, Vancouver and Montreal are international markets which brings up currency exchange issues and while both Toronto and Vancouver have the financial base to support a team when built, both would need new stadiums with Canadian permit laws and existing NFL teams in close enough proximity. That leaves Portland and San Antonio. From that short-list it's San Antonio by a pretty healthy margin because of the money and population. Now in Portland's defense they are close in metro population to San Antonio (they're listed one spot below at 25th to San Antonio's 24th) and are valued 14th in NBA teams, again just below San Antonio but they don't have the surrounding population which with only 8 regular season games can very well be seen as within 3 hours driving distance or the financial wealth of the area not to mention expected growth. San Antonio's Mayor has also been vocal for whatever it's worth. That said I think either Portland or San Antonio would likely be successful in maintaining an NFL team. Realistically though I've kept saying that with only 4 teams per division I could see a 4 team Euro-Division coming sooner than later because a single London team, even with long home and road stretches would be too big a gap for very long to exist on its own for an entire continent. And Germany did support the NFL-Europe teams it had until the end (even if most were losing money). I also think if you're looking at a 20 year conquest plan for the league, investing heavily in a cross-Atlantic build-up would seem to make sense. You also have less stadium issues in Europe because of euro-football. Sure you'd probably need stadium upgrades for serious NFL franchises but you wouldn't have to worry about brand new builds. So I think London, Manchester, Berlin and Dortmund (metro area and stadium, look it up) make sense.
  14. Except in the case of a legendary offensive season on a playoff team like Adrian Peterson in 2012. Lamar Jackson could be argued to have had a better defense to lean on and at least a slightly better line to help in blocking (Ingram had 5.0 YPC to Carson's 4.4)
  15. In the sense of being relied upon to subsidize several offensive short-comings? Because a lot of mediocre QBs have gotten to the Super Bowl where you don't need an elite All-Pro if you have a good enough team. Alex Smith's special teams and defense were the reason he didn't make 2 Super Bowls (well 1 for certain, the other is a probability).
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