Jump to content

5x10

Veteran Members
  • Content count

    786
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

91 Starter
  1. Yep, looks like i missed the 3 against gb i went back and re-checked my #s (dak was my first one and I did it on notebook paper) I’m showing under 500 = 55/30 , 500 and over is 52/37 ive updated his spread percentage below Rodgers = His TD production does not drop when facing 500 and over teams (2.04 vs under and 2.05 500 and over ) ‘Wilson = 6.7% less tds ‘Ryan = 10.8% less TDs Cousins = 14.8% less tds Dalton = 19% less tds prescott = 23.5% less tds Wentz = 26% less tds 2016, tds dropped 4%, 2017 tds dropped 7%, 2018 tds dropped 15%, 2019 tds dropped 54%
  2. I have a dual monitor setup on one screen, I pull up the standing for the particular year on the other screen, I pull up the game logs (espn lists the touchdowns so it’s easy) one by one, I put them all on a spreadsheet (1 column for under 500, another for 500 and over ), I do this for each year once I do them all for the particular qb, I then add up all the tds under 500 and divide them by the # of games played under 500, to give me an avg td per game calc( do the same for over 500) for example, Kirk cousins threw 53 tds in 29 games against sub 500 competition from 2019-2016. He threw 56 tds in 36 games vs 500 and over comp i then take the difference (spread) and divide the spread by the avg td per game vs under 500 teams which gives me the % difference the only reason I picked daltons first 4 years was to compare it to Daks first 4 years and the fact that his team during that time, from a talent perspective, is closer to what dak is playing with vs daltons 2019 team
  3. That’s fine, go ahead and run them yourself and see what you come up with so I think I’m able to explain these #s a little better of course, when playing more difficult teams , you would expect a qb to throw less td passes. ive been looking at the decline of tds, as a percentage , when facing under 500 teams and .500 and over teams here’s what I have come up with (all qbs are for the last 4 years except dalton, I used his first 4 years) Rodgers = His TD production does not drop when facing 500 and over teams (2.04 vs under and 2.05 500 and over ) ‘Wilson = 6.7% less tds ‘Ryan = 10.8% less TDs Cousins = 14.8% less tds Dalton = 19% less tds Wentz = 26% less tds Prescott = 36% less tds
  4. I went ahead and ran the #s for Carson wentz, he’s much closer to dak when looking at the spread to be clear, this is looking at td passes per game vs under 500 teams, 500 and over teams, and then looking at the spread between the 2 #s Dak avgs 1.87 tds under 500 and 1.19 over 500, .68 spread wentz avgs 1.95 under 500 and 1.44 over 500, .51 spread Wilson avgs 1.93 under 500 and 1.80 over 500, .13 spread last 4 years, playoffs included
  5. Dalton could step in and there wouldn’t be much of a drop off
  6. Dak avgs 1.87 tds under 500 and 1.19 over 500, .68 spread Wilson avgs 1.93 under 500 and 1.80 over 500, .13 spread last 4 years, playoffs included
  7. Yes, I specifically looked at passing, as I think that’s daks real crutch when he has to play better teams with better players the stat is not misleading in any way its literally titled passing tds i would love to have a resource to show what the avg spread is for qbs in the nfl
  8. It does answer your question. I am specifically looking at the “passing” tds of quarterbacks, you know, the main way qbs score this isn’t unusual and I would argue that the results show romo was most consistent and dak was the least consistent , when looking at passing tds pf sub 500 vs 500 and over i wonder what the league avg spread is
  9. Because I’m looking at passing tds. Really common thing to do, they even have columns for it on the stat pages
  10. Everything you explained is a constant , regardless if the team is sub 500 or over 500 playoff passing tds were included for all players
  11. Qb1 is daltons first 4 years qb2 is daks first 4 year qb3 is romos last 4 full years romo has the smallest spread(.18), dak has the largest .68 dalton and dak have very similar # of passing tds their first 4 years
  12. What’s wrong with looking at the spread of passing tds in bad vs good teams?
×