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RandyMossIsBoss

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Everything posted by RandyMossIsBoss

  1. Preface This season I have been tracking some of the top CBs in football. Using coaches film, I look at every single pass play the CB was involved in, and determine whether or not they did their job in coverage. This project was inspired by Cian Fahey (I think he is a BR writer/draftnik now?) who did a similar project a few years back, as he found that even the advanced targets and catches CB metrics many sites began putting out did not tell the whole story. Who were they covering? Was it actually their fault? Were they benefiting from poor QB play? A couple of notes about my process: For every eligible pass play, a CB either receives a "Success", "Shutdown" or "Failure" if he's in man coverage, or a "Good", "Great" or "Poor" if he's in zone. This is fairly subjective by its' nature, but I obviously try my best to be consistent. I do take into account situations, a CB is not going to get a "Failure" if the QB has 7 seconds to throw and hits the WR for a 10 yard gain who comes running back towards the QB after finishing his route. Letting up a 9 yard curl on 3rd & 10 is not a failure in the 1st quarter, but 4 down territory in the 4th quarter? It would be. Hopefully you get the gist. Man Failure: CB gets beat by the WR, in other words, the WR gets in position where a completion can be reasonably expected to occur. Whether it does or not is irrelevant. Success: WR is able to run most, if not all, of his route but is unable to achieve a position where a completion can be reasonably expected to occur. Shutdown: WR is able to run his entire route, but the CB remains in a position throughout where a completion would be next to impossible to occur. Zone Poor: CB leaves his zone open long enough that a completion could be reasonably expected to occur, or if CB is simply beat by WR in his zone. Good: CB does his job, covers his zone, and prevents any good looks from occuring in his zone. Great: Varies. Generally if multiple WRs cross into the CBs zone, aka it's a difficult play for the CB, but he holds it down, or if the CB shuts down the WR entering his zone. Ah, speaking of man and zone coverage, that is another tricky part of all of this. I am not a football expert, and even if I was, I would not be able to truly know what a CB's responsibility on any given play was without seeing the playcall. Fortunately when it comes to man coverage, their responsibility is blatant, but it becomes a lot murkier in zone. All I can say is I try my best and look at the context of any given play, but when it comes to zone, those are the numbers I have the least confidence in. For some teams (Jaguars) who play plenty of man and zone, even determining whether that CB is playing man or zone can be tricky. For other teams (Vikings), it is very clear from the get go what type of coverage they're running. Personally I use a couple of cues to determine what coverage I believe a CB is in: hip direction, where the CB is looking, and what the rest of the defense is doing. I mentioned eligible pass plays earlier, let me elaborate. I look at every pass play, but I don't judge the following pass plays Designed screen. Designed quick passes. You can often tell if a QB is making 1, or no, reads after the snap. You see it a lot on goal line fades, are in the flat to the HB if the QB identified a hole pre-snap. I'm not crediting a CB for good coverage when the ball got out in 1 second and the QB didn't even look the way of the CB, UNLESS the CB's man is the target on that play, as then I am judging your coverage with the ball in the air. Zone coverage where all pass catchers converge to the opposite side of the field. With that out of the way, let's get to the juicy stuff, the stuff that I think people will find more value in and are more interested by: The charting stats. I've recorded every reception given up, which entails who the WR was, the down distance and quarter, and the general route ran (I go with "general" because WRs do not run their routes as textbook as in Madden!) I am very confident in the accuracy and relevance of this charting data, as there is very little subjectivity, especially when it comes to man coverage, as opposed to the success/fail data which involves more subjectivity. I have already looked at Rhodes, Lattimore and Ramsey. Currently working on White from the Bills and Mills from the Eagles (I wanted to look at a CB who is not considered great). For the first guy we'll look at, I'm going with Rhodes, as he was the easiest to chart and most enjoyable. Xavier Rhodes https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--neUcBs6Sa87GKNa8 From their second game, and until the end of the season, the Vikings put Rhodes on any notable WRs and had him follow them for over 3/4ths of the game. Rhodes played almost exclusively man coverage, and lot of press, and in my opinion did a tremendous job. Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, AJ Green, all shadowed, and arguably shut down, by Rhodes in 2017. He is an extremely physical, and handsy, CB (definitely gets away with his fair share of holds but nothing egregious). Very quick athlete, when WRs make their break Rhodes seems to just snap himself towards them without missing a beat. Rhodes is definitely at his best when he is up on the line and in position to jam WRs, as it not only lets him get extra physical and mess up their break, but it lets him get into trail technique which he does very well playing. Rhodes makes it clear as day what coverage he is playing, which made my job easier. If he's in zones, he'll have his hips towards the QB pre-snap, if he's in man, he'll be squared up against his WR (and often wrapping his arms around each other). While I've only looked at 3 CBs, I already have a hard time imagining there being any corner play much better than this. Notable Takeaways: vs Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, AJ Green (5 games) Allowed just 19 catches on 38 targets for 210 yards. That is an average of 3.8 receptions and 42 yards per game given up in his meetings with who were perhaps the 5 best healthy WRs in the NFL this season. Allowed a passer rating of just 70.4 while in man coverage. Impressive considering he was more often than not covering the opposing team's best WR. Jalen Ramsey https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ndja9fFuwfqq9M5I The Jaguars play a ton of cover 3, and while Ramsey can certainly play zone, I think he is best served in man coverage. Almost every time he got the opportunity to play press man, the WR failed to get any separation, especially on vertical routes. Due to their use of zone, and the fact that they have 2 great corners, Ramsey just stayed on the left side more often than not, but he was given shadow duties many times. Sometimes during key drives down the stretch Ramsey would follow around the opposing #1. It was not always easy to determine what coverage Ramsey was in, and all too often he was asked to play off the WR which doesn't mesh well with this whole system I'm using, making for a lot of judgement calls. Hard to outrun, but susceptible to the double move form shiftier WRs. Notable Takeaways: Only 1 accepted penalty called on him, and it was in the final game of the season. I recall he was also flagged on a TD he let up to AB, which was declined. Considering how physical he is, that is impressive. Was directly responsible for 26 incompletions. QBs had a 54.9 passer rating when throwing to WRs he covered. Marshon Lattimore https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ncxxt40gJ84hvoBA Lattimore is just a rookie but already one of league's top flight CBs. Excellent mix of athleticism and size/physicality helped him to seamlessly transition to the NFL at a position that historically has a steep learning curve. On top of being a rookie he dealt with some injuries. He initially stayed on the right side of the field and played more conservative coverage, but by the end of the year he was tasked with following around opposing top WRs and playing a ton of press man. Not quite as explosive as Ramsey or as fluid as Rhodes, makes up for it by already having a knack for reading routes right before they unfold. Notable Takeaways: No TDs allowed in man coverage. Only 2 TDs allowed overall, 1 of which, that was allowed to Rudolph in week 1, could be argued was not Lattimore's fault. Prior to ankle injury, allowed just 14 catches for 126 yards over 8 games and 245 cover snaps. Upon returning, he allowed 22 catches for 373 yards over 6 games and 198 cover snaps. Ankle injury could have played a role, as he did appear a bit flat footed, but also worth noting that in all but 1 of those final 6 games he followed opposing top WRs, which included following Julio twice. Tre'Davious White https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ngQPcneSzGPHZuAL4 Another rookie phenom, White brings great ball skills and positioning to the table. Unlike the other CBs looked at thus far, White was by and large a zone cornerback in 2018. The Bills primarily played basic cover 2 and cover 4, with White manning the left side and rarely moving. He did a great job in his role, but it was pretty limited as he was essentially asked to simply back pedal and occupy space, more or less, and hope the pass rush could force an errant throw. Got more comfortable in his role as the year went on and rarely had miscommunications or missed assignments in zone. Probably made his zone coverage look easier than it was. Can be physical, and lined up across from TEs later in the season on occasion, despite his slender frame. Notable Takeaways: Faulted for only 13 catches for 193 yards and 0 TDs, while grabbing 3 INTs and drawing 0 flags in final 8 games (not including blizzard game). Over 60% of counted coverage snaps were in zone. Good tackler, allowed just 3.5 YAC per catch allowed. Marcus Peters https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ngQZnDdB48E9cI2v0 One of the trickiest CBs to track yet as his stance in man and zone coverage appeared to be the same and he always tended to have his eye on the QB (normally tell-tale sign of zone) even in what I could only deduce were man situations (no safety help, other CBs playing clear man, etc.). Peters sets himself apart from the other CBs as an extraordinary playmaker, even on routine tackles he is going for the rip more often than not. QBs often overthrew his targets in what I assume were attempts to throw a ball in a place where only the WR could catch it out of fear of Peters. He generally gave his man an 8+ yard cushon, although as the season winded down he was lining up right off the LOS more and more. Regardless of how he lined up, Peters often immediately bailed and would start back pedaling off the snap, letting the WR reach him or even get a step on him, before entering a trail technique. I would say this is all just part of his game as playmaking CB constantly looking to bait the QB. There were only a handful of plays where he jumped routes he shouldn't have and could have allowed major gains, and only a few actually came to be. Chiefs ran a ton of cover 1, and surprisingly I would say the single high safety shaded toward Peters' side more often than not, but honestly I did not track that and could be wrong; though I will say at the very least he certainly wasn't being left on an island. Notable Takeaways: Allowed opposing passer rating of 44.8, lowest recorded yet. Lined up almost exclusively at LCB on plays I counted. Allowed just 1 TD and picked off 5 passes in final 10 games.
  2. 2017 Cornerback Review Part 5: Marcus Peters

    Long break, but finally finished Peters. Kendall Fuller will be the next CB posted, as he was requested, and it will be interesting to see how a slot corner compares and/or whether a comparison should even be made.
  3. Denver Nuggets Thread

    HC- Mike Malone Projected 2017-18 Depth Chart (as of now) PG- Jameer Nelson / Emmanuel Mudiay SG- Gary Harris / Will Barton / Jamal Murray / Malik Beasley SF- Wilson Chandler PF- Paul Millsap / Juan Hernangomez / Kenneth Faried / Trey Lyles / Tyler Lydon C- Nikola Jokic / Mason Plumlee / Darrell Arthur
  4. Free Agency Thread

    Stoked by the Nuggets moves. IT as a sparkplu off the bench and man to run the offense while Jokic is on the bench is so perfect. Of course you're adding an awful defender to a team that already has 2 defensive liabilities in their starting lineup (Jokic and Murray, granted both are improving), but they're not winning a championship this year, develop your core and put the best show on. Nuggets should be even more fun to watch now, especially if Porter is healthy. Hope Faried gets PT in Brooklyn. Great guy, and IMO still a very quality player, just didn't have a spot in this Nuggets rotation.
  5. Predators accept. Allen Robinson to WR #1 Cooper Kupp to PS Release Kevin White from PS
  6. I thought I made it clear I was looking for trade partners who had already given up on their season, so I assumed you fell into that category when you showed interest. I can't be bothered to follow that silly cheesy conference. Obviously yeah, for a competing team, a mid round pick for your best WR is not worth it. However, if you've already given up though and said #1 WR is not going to get tagged (which I doubt Dez would), then there is no reason not to ship him to the highest bidder.
  7. Overwatch

    I LOVE Brig in theory, a healer that can protect themselves better than almost any other character in the game, but you can really pin all the brokenness of her character on the fact that she can shield bash Rein right out of his shield. That little ability alone changes the meta of the game. Sure, you could argue her health pool is too big or her range is too wide, but the real problem with her is that simple stun on Rein. I also just think her skill floor is a bit too high, same as Moira. You can really wreak havoc as either character without much experience just because their toolkits are so strong and easy to utilize.
  8. What if NBA players came to NFL?

    Not enough crossover to warrant a draft, but there are without a doubt a fair share of freak athletes in the NBA, and freak athletes transcend their sport of choice. Would these guys be notable NFL players? Most probably wouldn't, but it would come down to their training and how quickly their brains can absorb all of the new info. Younger they are the better obviously, as that gives more time to learn before they begin losing that athleticism. The sweet spot would be the handful of freak athlete 6'0 to 6'3 guards like Westbrook, John Wall, Zach Lavine, etc. Of that batch, I bet half could make the transition to football within a year and at least make an NFL roster (almost surely at WR or CB). Then you have a few (or maybe just one because I can't think of any other off top of my head) extra special guys like Lebron who in his prime could absolutely have held it down as a WR or TE at 6'6. Those 7 footers though? No way man. None of them are nearly big enough to go in the trenches, and none would have the agility or durability for WR. Maybe situational red zone threat but that's about it, and probably not worth the roster spot needed to find out.
  9. Honestly how are you 0-8 @bucsfan333!? Looking over your team, apparent you have one of the weaker QBs in the sim, but other than that it looks like a team that should be giving a fight each week. I was happy to see you as my next opponent at first but now I can't help but feel you are due for a win, just a regression to the mean.
  10. 4-4, the boys are alive again. Division is brutal though, likely need to finish 6-2 the rest of way, and only 2 sub .500 teams left while facing 4 teams currently slated for postseason. Phoenix Rattlers (0-8) @ South Africa Woolly Mammoths (5-2-1) @ Miami Sharks (6-2) Egypt Starfalls (5-3) Southview Saints (4-4) @ Rhein Fire (1-7) Scranton Papermakers (5-3) @ Motor City Machine Gunners (6-2) Could really use a WR, where are the tankers at? Hammy is asking too much for Hill and Gmen seems to think a player he isn't even going to tag is worth more than mid rounder.
  11. So not including my vote on PML, just 3 final votes were cast on a mafia player the whole game, none until D4. All time bad game for town.
  12. I've been mafia so much on this new board that I feel like I need to model my civ game after my mafia game rather than vice versa like most try to do, so that I don't give away my role... Problem is my mafia game is very demanding on me since I am so calculated with every single post, which becomes a chore after the first few days. Need to reinvent myself. Hopefully I'll draw civ one of these days, play organically, get lynched for playing different the first couple times, then try and translate this style to the next time I'm mafia.
  13. So people kept commenting on the mafia's mistake N2 not to hit LTBF ("oh they must be inexperienced mafia").. here is the logic: LTBF had no invest on N2, and already cleared VikesManDan. With the protector dead, those 2 were equal as far as we were concerned as we could kill either whenever we want. Between the two, one had a chance of dying without our involvement (LTBF), the other would survive unless we did something (VikeMan). We chose the scenario that could see both the civ clears die. We got lucky and he didn't get pardoned, but had he, we would have just killed him the next night before he got another invest off.
  14. Why have we suddenly gotten away from a PML vote?
  15. Wouldn't you know?... If PML is mafia, this is the most desperate lolclear for Gopher right? I feel like we can't go wrong with either. PML tonight, gopher the next. Then perhaps Ole and Slappy?
  16. Jay Train's fantasy value

    Agree with everyone else, it's going to be a RBCC again. If he stays healthy all year I could see him hitting 200 carries, 1000 YFS, 8 TDs, but that's going to be scattered. We'll ride with the hot hand. Ajayi will probably have the type of fantasy season where he has a 20 pt game followed by a 4 pt game, rinse and repeat.
  17. @MookieMonster why the switch from PML to Gopher? ET self vote as soon as heat piles up is as scummy it gets. I don't think frustrated town pulls of that kind of move this late in the game when they know a mislynch for the town means game over.
  18. My OL is without a doubt better than it was last season, yet my run game has gone from solid to trash even though I've got the same pair of RBs. I honestly think my team this year is just as good as conference champion team from last year, it's just the RNG was in my favor last season with close victories, but now has gone the opposite way with close losses.
  19. If I lose week 6 it's all your fault! The gameplan I was planning to employ was flawless.
  20. Well I've been pretty much of no help. ET has made hard pushes for 2 civ lynches (Touch and then KSJ), yet I don't get a mafia read simply because mafia would have no reason to put their name out there and push for someone as adamantly as ET did last night w/ KSJ. Not when mafia is in the driver's seat and can cruise. I have civ reads on mookie, Ole, and squire. That leaves PML, gopher, scrappy, ET, MD4L, Stallyns as the possible mafia candidates to me. Are we still against Bill claiming? The pardon is useless at this juncture, let's get the clear so we can have at least one person who we can trust going forward.
  21. Why are you trying to create such an easy bandwagon for people to hop on and mafia to hide in? This is not helpful at all.
  22. Nevermind about ET going quiet. What is the reasoning for KSJ? I understand there are probably 2 mafia coasting at the moment, but there's about 5 players with little activity so that is a 2/5 gamble.
  23. I think you're reading far too much into that lumberjack game, it had odd mechanics and was not a traditional game. Furthermore, I believe in 2 out of my 3 prior mafia games on this board I was mafia? 3 games is not much of a sample size to begin with. This feels like a pretty lazy push. I thought you soft claimed earlier and thus backed off the suspicions I've had on you all game, but you've gone a different route so I guess that's not the case... feels a bit odd how PML and KSJ have now suddenly jumped on my BW out of the blue. However, I'm not sure why mafia would want me lynched when I was way off base w/ my Touch/ET theory, so there's no reason to think mafia would go out of their way to start a bw on somebody who has not had a lot of heat on them unless there was good reason. Speaking of ET, a bit odd how quiet he has gone right? As far as I'm concerned, mass claiming seemed to be the obvious strategy to go with considering how we've been backed into a corner, so I'm also suspicious of Whicker and PML for being so against the mass claim (Mookie is as well but I already have too strong a civ read on him from earlier). However, I still can't really look past Slappy's N3. If we're not going to get ourselves any clears and some sense of direction from mass claims, I'll go with the safest bet which remains Slappy, but it's still not very safe. Remind me again the drawbacks of mass claim, or at the very least a Bill claim when it gives us at worst a 50/50 lynch, and at best a clear?
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