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Acrid Josher

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  1. Week 10: Miami WontWins @ Green Bay GDT

    The tweet is trying to insinuate something with faulty reasoning. Mainly that the Packers should be running more on first down. The logic being that they have a high Success Rate but low Run Rate compared to the rest of the league. What this misses is that the Packers shouldn't be striving to balance their run/pass rates at a similar rate to the rest of the league. For all we know, the rest of the league has it wrong (there is extensive analytical work supporting this idea- teams run too much even in this relatively pass-happy era). Better metrics: why we can't just use Win% or Expected Points The best play is the one that gives the overall highest win chance, which is generally the play that yields the most Expected Points. We have tons of data for league average teams over many years on what yields the most Expected Points, but for a specific team in any given year there is a lot of noise in EP data due to the turnover of players and the variation of specific plays. A few huge outlier positive (a 99 yard touchdown run) or negative (pick-6) plays can pollute your Expected Point data over just a few hundred first-down plays through week 10 in any given NFL season. One solution to the limited EP data is to look at a less perfect metric like "Success Rate" (SR). It's less perfect because it will only tell us if the offense hits certain minimal thresholds given down and distance (iirc it's 5 yards on 1st and 10) so it will bias towards more 'consistent' plays like runs and away from plays with bigger explosive potential to get points (big pass plays) but it has the advantage of being a more stable metric that isn't going to be overly sensitive to good/bad luck in big plays. Success Rate So let's talk Success Rate then. We're looking at first down run SR in this tweet, which means that the only metric to compare it to is not to other team league-averages and rates, but to the Packers own pass SR in the same first-down scenarios. It turns out, the Packers have almost dead even run and pass SR on 1st and 10. This means that, ignoring personnel decisions (more on that in a moment) most likely the Packers have been nearly perfect in their first down run-pass play split. As good as you might think they are on first down at running, they've been just as successful passing. There is no season Success Rate argument that the Packers should run more. There are other arguments. What Team Success Rate Misses 1. Aaron Jones is now getting a higher percent of carries. Maybe with more of him and no more Montgomery that Packers run SR can be expected to rise. It is small sample of 1st and 10s so far, but on 39 offensive 1st and 10 plays Jones does have quite a high SR (64%). Williams is not nearly as good (48%) and Ty was about average (53%). If (big if) these rates continue, that would be a strong indication Jones should get more 1st down carries (this is already a trend we are seeing develop as recently as last week). 2. Despite (1), it's possible to argue it is better to pass, because the chance for a big play that passing brings (yes, it is higher than the chance of a big Aaron Jones run) is worth more than meeting the minimum "Success" threshold. 3. Keep in mind SR doesn't take into account turnovers. SR is binary so a play is just as "unsuccessful" on a turnover as on an incomplete pass or a run of four yards. Depending on Jones' fumble rate compared to Rodgers fumble/int rate, it might be better to bias towards the play type that causes fewer turnovers. In his small sample of a career, Jones has a 0.65% fumble rate (1 fumble in 154 rushes). This year, Rodgers has 6 fumbles and 1 INT in 355 pass attempts for a 1.97% fumble+int rate (slightly inflated because it double-counts his fumbles on handoffs from center-qb exchanges on run plays). Conclusion It's probably time to run Aaron Jones more on 1st and 10. Not because other teams are running more on 1st and 10, but because so far early results indicate it's going to lead to more consistent yardage gains (and thus sustained drives) than passing- something this team has at times struggled with. If you believe the turnover numbers will hold (such things are highly volatile with this small a sample- was Jones a fumbler in college?), it's probably a safer move for ball security, too. When Williams is in the game, the Packers should continue passing on 1st down as much or more than they currently do. Running Jones on 1st down will mean less explosive plays to MVS and Adams on 1st down, but it should more consistently put us in better down/distance situations on 2nd and 3rd down allowing an opportunity for later-down explosive gains to our WRs.
  2. This Is Rival Talk v1.0

    If that scuffle at the end of Rams-Seahawks wasn't worth an ejection but a light retaliatory slap to the facemask is there is no sense to the way they handle those post-whistle infractions.
  3. This Is Rival Talk v1.0

    Teams have no loyalty to players and will drop them at a moment's notice. I don't begrudge a vet who has put in his time ending it on his terms instead of pointlessly putting his body through the meatgrinder for a few more months on a team without a shot. If anything it's a gift and let's them get looks at their depth for next year while helping them tank.
  4. Week 9 Post-Game: Packers 17 Patriots 31

    Or hell, even if you do think he's the worst blocking TE in the league (I agree, he isn't) split him wide to keep the need to block out of it entirely and motion Davante to the slot- from what I've seen DA seems like he must be a slight + or at least league-average as a run-blocker vs a CB on screens/run support. High effort with some attitude at the very least. More snaps for Graham just gives us more options and forces more respect for the pass.
  5. Random Packer News & Notes

    Anybody subscribed to The Athletic able to post articles? I kinda wanna read the above and the most recent Michael Cohen but don't feel like throwing then a card number without a preview of article quality.
  6. Week 9 Post-Game: Packers 17 Patriots 31

    For better or worse, Cobb was the 1v1 matchup here. DB played him very physical and impeded his progress so he couldn't get to his spot. FWIW I thought this could have been interference at the time, but given how they were calling the game it was probably most consistent to no-call this one. Question the wisdom of not calling a different play if you see this is the read given the defensive alignment, but then you might be wasting another timeout which people hate. I don't think Aaron was off-target for where Cobb was headed, so much as he got slowed up by physical db play. Not exactly an example of a terrible throw so much as the other guys getting to impact the play too.
  7. AG20 Rams Video Thread

    I'm guessing automatically flagged and taken down by youtube's copyright algorithm courtesy of the NFL?
  8. Week 9 Post-Game: Packers 17 Patriots 31

    Preach. This is the most frustrating season in recent memory. The difference is we're further in the hole than normal with a healthy Rodgers, and the hill to climb with a tough conference and division means unless we pull it together now and just keep winning, we've probably gonna see a team good enough to be in the playoffs who won't get to play in them. Other stuff: * MVS and Alexander are two huge reasons for optimism on each side of the ball. Both are exciting to watch. MVS can already do things like Jordy in contested situations that nobody on the team has been able to do for years. Alexander is gonna have a headache in games where they are calling ticky-tack stuff but otherwise it's a pleasure to watch his physical technique from snap-to-whistle. * Tramon got posterior posterized to end the game. Unlike most I didn't have a horse in this race or the HHCD fallout besides a general anxiety about a secondary position change the week before facing Brady. Besides that play, I thought Williams acquitted himself well, including a fantastic run support play on the goal-line that I haven't seen much of from HHCD the last couple years. Cautiously optimistic he can be a solution here. * 3rd quarter defense was elite. They got jobbed twice by 3rd/4th down reset calls and still made subsequent stops. They have been incredibly inconsistent this year but it's nice to see there is a high ceiling there.
  9. Media obsession with putting Rodgers in the GOAT convo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvkKd572vCw
  10. WEEK 8 GB vs LAR post game discussion (L 27-29)

    I guess we get to find the answer to this sooner than I'd like.
  11. WEEK 8 GB vs LAR post game discussion (L 27-29)

    Why would HHCD be out of here? What the hell would we do at safety without him?
  12. This Aint Packers Talk v69

    Beautiful ******* game. Time to do it again.
  13. Wk 3 postgame: GB 17 • WAS 31

    I didn't realize there was a "FIFA Rules" setting this year.
  14. Surely his arms aren't that short?
  15. Aaron Rodgers and the QB Coaching change.

    You mean the last year he won MVP? If Aaron needs to wear lingerie and lipstick to get back to healthy 2014 MVP levels I'm all for it. How is this sort of sexism allowed by forum rules when everything else is locked down so tightly?
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