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e16bball

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  1. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    The Wizards will need to get lucky to move into actual contention status with Beal, that’s for sure. Probably twice. Whether that’s Hachimura turning into Paul Millsap or Brown Jr turning into Iguodala or winning the lottery next season or Wall coming back better than ever in 2020 (with a Lowry-esque late career jump shot?) or one of the Lakers guys or Schofield turning into an average or better starter — they need some luck. But as long as he’s willing to re-sign here, I think I’d prefer that to most realistic trade offers. Unrealistic trade offers, like the LAC trade for George — which, again, was a total one off and entirely not instructive as to Beal’s value — well that’s a different story. If someone comes in and bowls you over with a mega-offer for Beal, of course you take it. But otherwise, I think you keep him if he’s willing to stay. The NBA is a star driven league, and stars are hard to come by. Beal is a star. I think there’s still an opportunity to hope you can find second and third stars to put out there with him. When healthy, Wall was a star. Maybe Hachimura becomes a star. Maybe they get someone like Anthony Edwards or James Wiseman or RJ Hampton in the draft who becomes another star. It’s a long shot, but all their options are long shots at this point. I’d rather start with one star and try to build up from there than go back to zero stars and hope for one more miracle to go my way.
  2. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    Who would hate that for OKC? It’s awful for the Wizards, but it’s clearly OK for OKC. Their salaries are essentially a wash for the next 3 seasons, about 3/$124M for both. Wall has the huge 2022-23 salary of $47M, that’s the difference between the two from a contract standpoint. Since Wall will likely sit out the 2019-20 season, you’ll clearly get more production from CP3 in the upcoming year. But neither team is trying/hoping to compete this season, so that production will essentially have no value. Probably negative value, when viewed with a long-term lens. In terms of long-term potential production, the edge clearly goes to Wall. That’s not to say Wall is a sure bet to contribute a whole lot — it’s just to say it’s a pretty sure bet that CP3 won’t be worth much (if anything) in a couple seasons. Undersized PGs usually age poorly, and you can see the decline already starting with CP3. He turned 34 a couple months ago, his last 3 seasons have been dogged by nagging injuries that have kept him out for 20+ games a year, and his numbers plummeted pretty dramatically across the board last season. The cliff is coming, and quickly. There’s just no chance he ever contributes anything of value on the next decent Wizards team. Wall may well never contribute anything of value either, but at least there’s a greater than zero chance of that happening with him, given that he’s 5 years younger. I’m not sure I would trade Wall for CP3 straight up. But I’m damn sure I wouldn’t trade any (1st round!) picks to do it. As I’ve said before, for teams like the Wizards, trades that prioritize future cap space over future picks are really bad ideas. Cap space is only as good as what you can do with it, and the Wizards will never be able to do much with it. Especially if/when the roster has been stripped down to nothing.The only way they’re ever going to get true elite talent to come to DC is through the draft — and giving up some of their best chances to pull that off, in order to gain a year’s worth of cap space in 2023, is really foolish.
  3. Predict QB Haskins

    I don’t think he’ll be bad, so that eliminates Blackledge. I don’t think he’ll be the kind of rare quarterback who puts up huge numbers regardless of the talent level around him, so that eliminates Marino. I don’t expect him to burn brightest early on and then fizzle out after a couple seasons, so that eliminates Eason and O’Brien. Which leaves us with Elway and Kelly. Two HOFers, so it’s already likely too lofty a comparison. But I’m going with Jim Kelly. He had some rough patches through his first 3-4 seasons, with some issues taking sacks and throwing picks. The Bills were only 28-29 in his starts through year 4. But once the supporting cast of Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, James Lofton, Don Beene, Pete Metzelaars, etc. was all in place and clicking, Kelly and the Bills really took off. We all remember their 4 SB appearances (some more fondly than others), but it was remarkable for me to be reminded that their Run-and-Shoot offense ranked 3rd, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd annually in the league in points during that span. I had been thinking that defense was more their calling card, with the Bruce Smiths and Cornelius Bennetts and Darryl Talleys running amok, but that was definitely a high-powered offensive team first and foremost. To me, that’s who Haskins will be. A guy who can make all the throws, but probably not consistently enough to be a surgeon that can carve you up regardless of who’s out there catching his passes. If you give him a good scheme and a good set of receivers, though, he could be very dangerous and very prolific. I would expect his career arc to mirror the quality of his surrounding cast, and while I think that’s true of most good-maybe-great-but-not-legendary QBs, I think Kelly is the best example of that among the choices.
  4. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    Kind of a tricky situation though. I don’t think there’s any meaningful/reliable way to approximate what we could have gotten for Beal based on what they gave up for George. You can’t ballpark it based on Beal’s relative value compared to George, because they wouldn’t have given up that amount of assets just for Paul George either. They did that trade because acquiring George was the domino that needed to fall in order to get Kawhi to take their money in FA. In essence, they paid that price to secure the George/Leonard combo. I don’t think they would’ve traded anything close to that for Beal, because I don’t believe adding Beal would have gotten Kawhi to sign on. George, coming off a 1st team All-NBA season, is a substantially better player than Beal. He’s a legitimate top 10-15 player in the league, whereas Beal probably sits more in the 20-25 range. He’s also an elite wing defender, which Kawhi presumably values in a player (because it’s a big part of his value as well). Moreover, from a perception standpoint, they’re not even close. George has the “profile” of a superstar, with the perennial All-Star games and the USA basketball roster spot/gold medal and the unquestioned “franchise player” label from his time with the Pacers. Beal is still trying to shake free from the label of “John Wall’s sidekick” on a national scale. There may have been an opportunity for a trade of Beal to LAC, especially if they had missed out on Kawhi. But I don’t think it would ever have even approached what OKC got once Kawhi signed off on George as his “second star.”
  5. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    With Leonard gone from Toronto, I wonder if they’ll revisit the Ujiri conversations now. He and Kawhi evidently had a great relationship, and they would have had a shot at the repeat if Kawhi had stuck around. Now that he’s moved on, though, one would have to think that job has lost a lot of its luster. May be time for Ujiri to pivot and move on to his next step...
  6. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    No way it would’ve been the same — George is clearly the much better player, and more importantly is someone good enough to get Kawhi on board. Woj mentioned Jrue Holiday in the same sentence as Beal in the original article, which I think gives some insight into the way both of those guys were viewed (backup plans). But it still would’ve been worth considering even if it wasn’t that giant haul. The Clippers had a surprisingly large number of major assets in their arsenal.
  7. Predicting the 53 man roster

    I'll be very surprised if JoJo Wicker makes the active roster. I do expect them to carry 6 DL, but I'd wager they'll grab a veteran backup between now and mid-training camp. Allen Bailey is still out there, although he would certainly be overqualified for a full-time backup role. Maybe Ethan Westbrooks? McGee and Ziggy are both still out there as well... I don't know much about JoJo Wicker, but the fact that I've never heard of him makes me a little skeptical of his staying power. Plus, I just don't know if that's a winning name for a 300 pound defensive end. Wicker reminds me of my grandma's outdoor patio furniture, and the name JoJo just reminds me of this rather NSFW but classic Ari Gold rant.
  8. Jalen Thompson

    He's taking the supplemental draft thing very seriously.
  9. Highest rated Redskins each year in PFF ERA

    I dunno, take a look back at that 2011 offensive group. London probably had higher value on offense for us that year than anyone who actually, you know, played offense for us.
  10. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    I think most fans are pretty familiar with Moe Wagner, but I find these other two guys interesting as well. I knew virtually nothing about either one until I saw the trade announcement, but both really have some intriguing characteristics. Isaac Bonga is a 6’9 point guard. Yes, you read that correctly. He’s extremely young and the knock has always been that he can’t shoot, but evidently he made a lot of progress in the G League last season. The pre-draft reports rave about his passing and instincts, so there’s a lot to like there. Who knows where he’ll end up, but he could be of value if the jumper keeps coming along (34.4 3pt% and 81.6 FT% in the G League last year). Jemerrio Jones is another really interesting case. In looking at his numbers from his rookie season, the one thing that jumped out at me was 8.2 rebounds per game. From a 6’5 SF coming off the bench. Granted, it was only six games — but in those 6 games, he had 15+ rebounds twice. Plus another 10 rebound game. There were only 47 guys in the league last year with multiple 15-rebound games, and every one of them played a hell of a lot more than 6 games. Take a look at this article about Jones as a draft prospect. It’s really remarkable — the guy rebounded amazingly in college as well. To the point that the author compared him to legendary college rebounder Paul Millsap, or perhaps PJ Tucker given that Jones is a good deal smaller than Millsap. His assist numbers were also very strong, leading the author to mention names like Draymond Green when it came to comparing the rebounding/passing abilities of Jemerrio Jones. I have no idea if any of these guys turn into anything. But I really like the move, and the idea behind it. Let’s take on a couple small salaries, into our trade exception, and carry some lottery tickets on the roster for the next couple seasons. And get an additional draft asset coming to us for our trouble. The only thing I don’t like is that we willfully put Lebron in position to get another damn max player...
  11. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    I agree there were higher upside picks there. Were it me, I likely would have swung for the fences with Doumbouya on the idea that whether he booms or he busts, either way it could be a good thing for the Wizards long-term (in that they may find themselves needing to detonate it and hit rock bottom at some point in the next 3-4 years). Reddish and Little, I guess they have more upside? They’re younger and they had great recruiting pedigree — but they both kinda stunk in college. You’d have to hope that they’re totally different players in the NBA than they were at Duke and UNC, because they were not particularly useful to their college teams. Especially Reddish, although at least he was able to get on the floor in a major role. I also agree that I would have taken most of the guys from the late lottery in 2018 over Hachimura (although not Robinson and possibly not Michael Porter because of the severe injury issues). But I’m not sure how valuable that information is, because I would have taken all those guys over Reddish and Cam Johnson and PJ Washington and Tyler Herro and Romeo Langford as well. It just wasn’t a deep draft this year — or, maybe more accurately, the 3rd tier that usually encompasses the late lottery wasn’t very strong. The statistical models all punish Hachimura harshly for being older than the average draftee. Which, nine times out of ten, is entirely fair. Older guys tend to have more polish and less remaining projection, so they generally have a lower ceiling. But this guy is a late-comer to the game, and the areas where he struggles (defensive awareness, passing, confidence to let the 3-ball fly) are aspects of the game where one improves with time. I think there’s still upside there to be tapped, and he’ll certainly get plenty of court time and experience with the current roster.
  12. Really hard to argue with @MKnight82 on most of his ratings, which are pretty much dead on, so I’ll just post the areas where I disagree slightly. I would combine the OL and DL groups into one, and give us a 3 for the OL and a 5 for the DL. The overall talent level on the OL probably would qualify for a 4, but the injury risk/history has to drop them a full grade. For similar reasons, I give the TE group a 3. Reed is probably good enough for a 4, and VD is a decent enough backup still, but the injury risk is too high to avoid the durability penalty. I would give Collins a 4 at SS and I would give Kerrigan/Sweat a 4 at OLB. Not much depth at either position, but Collins and Kerrigan are perennial Pro Bowl candidates and I’ve been fully bought in on Sweat since about February.
  13. Didn’t get where he is in life by giving up and packing it in when people told him his goals are unrealistic. I also think it’s unlikely that he ever takes a meaningful snap again — but I don’t doubt for a second that he truly believes it’s still a possibility. Would love to see him do something like return to the Chiefs at some point and back up Mahomes in a sort of player/coach hybrid role.
  14. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    I’m really puzzled by some of these projections of Hachimura’s “upside.” Not a starter on a legit contender? Danny Green, Maurice Harkless, Nikola Mirotic, and the fossilized remains of Andrew Bogut all just started for teams in the Conference Finals. JaVale McGee, Tristan Thompson, Zaza Pachulia, JR Smith, Iman Shumpert, and Timofey Mozgov were all full-time starters at one point or another for the two teams that dominated the last half-decade of basketball. I would agree that it’s hard to envision superstar or probably even All-Star upside with him, but I don’t think he’s got a low ceiling for a back-half lottery pick. He has a higher realistic ceiling than the guy picked in front of him (Hayes), who will likely never be anything more than a rim-runner and rim-protector — which, while useful, is close to dime a dozen in today’s NBA. And he clearly has a higher ceiling than Cam Johnson, who went 2 picks later. As I’ve said, I didn’t love the pick. But I think it’s over the top to say there’s a bench ceiling on a guy who goes 6’8 with a huge wingspan and hands, put up 20 a game for a top 5 team, has a great frame and physique, can score effectively on each level and shot 42% from 3 as a junior, and has only been playing organized basketball since high school. It comes down to the shooting, as it always does nowadays, but if he can continue progressing and hit the NBA 3-ball at a solid rate, I’m not sure why he couldn’t be Tobias Harris (for example).
  15. Off-Topic: The Washington Wizards Thread

    Pretty decent pick there with Schofield. He’s so bulky that it’s kinda hard to envision him transitioning well to the NBA game with the emphasis on fluidity and mobility, but he’s such a good athlete that I think he’ll be able to be a valuable defender. Offensive game is a little limited, but he shot the hell out of the ball last year, so that could make him pretty valuable as a rotation guy from day one.
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