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ny92jefferis

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About ny92jefferis

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  • NFL Team
    New York Giants
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    Thunder
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    Oklahoma State

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  1. FFMD

    I still want to continue Total Controls individual GM mock draft as I know that so many prefer that structure. Part of the issues that FFMD has struggled with on the GM level is that the time required for the GM to put in is given the same voting power as a member that contributed a total of 2 single word posts. The General Manager's vote whom is putting in hours of their time, must carry more value than the "special adviser to Kick holders coach".
  2. FFMD

    With the holidays rapidly approaching (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's and Valentines Day), all of which I expect cards from all of you, can we please start actively discussing this in a healthy debate with forum members and moderators? @CWood21 Thanks
  3. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    After this weeks outcome with the projections, I really can't see using this system on a week by week basis. Only projecting 50% or less just isn't going to cut it. As noted, I still stand behind using this system after the season stats are completed. Perhaps we could look at a quarterly system that would allow for roster adjustments as those figures were pretty solid. I'll run the numbers again after week 8. I know that BDL is using a voting system to determine wins and loses, but personally I think that it requires way too much time and commitment, but I'm open to discussion or if anyone has another idea I'm all ears.
  4. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    fyi, I made a slight change to the formula and it is projecting different winners so I'll post those here, to see which formula is getting the better result. PROJ. WINNER NewEnglandPatriots BuffaloBills NewYorkJets GreenBayPackers DetroitLions NewYorkGiants HoustonTexans IndianapolisColts LosAngelesRams TennesseeTitans OaklandRaiders PhiladelphiaEagles PittsburghSteelers MinnesotaVikings Still working on getting you guys a copy of the document, as it is currently set up in excel and would need to do some work to get it into google sheets, but I'm also wanting to work in some additional variables over the weekend so I'll get it posted within the next few days, depending on what I've got to do this week.
  5. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    I wish it was that accurate...haha. The system I'm currently using isn't as complicated as the system I used in the past when I was gambling. However, like I've said in the past the system hasn't been all that accurate when projecting the outcome of the games when the stats aren't available. The win percentages posted above is the outcome of knowing the combined stats from the last 4 weeks, which allows me to group teams based on their performance and then to forecast a score based on the group facing another group. Older versions of this system took into account SOS, divisional games as well as some other minor factors but I've never included injury. This project is basically to show that trying to project each weeks wins is less accurate than if I was to have the combined stats for the season. Basicly, saying if I have the stats in advance the system is much more accurate than simply forecasting the outcome prior to knowing the cumulative stats. So we'll see how this system does over the season, but I fully expect the forecasting to drop significantly in accuracy when I don't have the stats to back it up.
  6. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    Right now the workbook containing the formulas would be difficult to read, but I'll work on a read-only version over the next few days.
  7. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    Lets see how this weeks scores look before saying anything...haha.
  8. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    Alright so I've collected the stats from the first four games. Based on the formula I'm using to project the winners for week 5 games are as follows. PROJ. WINNER NewEnglandPatriots 19 - 14 BuffaloBills 16 - 20 NewYorkJets 17 - 14 DallasCowboys DetroitLions 27 - 24 LosAngelesChargers 27 - 22 HoustonTexans IndianapolisColts 23 - 26 LosAngelesRams TennesseeTitans 10 - 16 OaklandRaiders PhiladelphiaEagles 7 - 34 JacksonvilleJaguars 30 - 9 MinnesotaVikings Any game projections that you don't see happening? Using the accumulated stats collected from week 4 and reviewing that to the first 4 weeks the projections did rather well, but that doesn't mean much when attempting to forecast future scores, so we'll see where this takes us. Still a firm believer in that the system works much better when it has all 17 weeks of stats to project the scores. Win/ Loss % of games projected correctly Week 1 - 66.7% Games projected incorrectly WEEK_01 | BaltimoreRavens @ CincinnatiBengals WEEK_01 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ HoustonTexans WEEK_01 | OaklandRaiders @ TennesseeTitans WEEK_01 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ WashingtonRedskins WEEK_01 | NewOrleansSaints @ MinnesotaVikings Week 2 - 75% Games projected incorrectly WEEK_02 | TennesseeTitans @ JacksonvilleJaguars WEEK_02 | MiamiDolphins @ LosAngelesChargers WEEK_02 | WashingtonRedskins @ LosAngelesRams WEEK_02 | NewEnglandPatriots @ NewOrleansSaints Week 3 - 81.3% Games projected incorrectly WEEK_03 | DenverBroncos @ BuffaloBills WEEK_03 | PittsburghSteelers @ ChicagoBears WEEK_03 | AtlantaFalcons @ DetroitLions Week 4 - 81.3% Games projected incorrectly WEEK_04 | BuffaloBills @ AtlantaFalcons WEEK_04 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ NewYorkJets WEEK_04 | CarolinaPanthers @ NewEnglandPatriots
  9. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    No worries man, I'm going to just collect quarterly statistics, which is something I can manage. Congrats on the earning the moderator badge.
  10. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    Any of you guys interested in helping me collect stats each week?
  11. Looked like the same struggles that we had last year. The entire offensive line sucked it up in normal fashion again on Sunday night. They have got to figure out a replacement for Bobby Hart and John Jerry sooner rather than later. Trade picks or hit the market because what we currently have isn't going to cut it. Sick of seeing these two players on their backs. Flowers and Pugh wasn't much more impressive. Perhaps I'm alone on this but I don't think Pugh is as good as they make him out to be. Tired of the coaches trying to sell Flowers as being a up and comer and using the excuse of him being young. Really feel he is a right tackle and should of never even started a game on the left side. Paul Perkins isn't the answer at running back either. He seems to be too indecisive when hitting the hole, I understand that the line sucks but you can't dance around waiting for a lane to open up behind this line, there are no blockers to follow, you've got to make your own holes which is what Darkwa was doing. Wasn't a fan of Perkins when we drafted him and that hasn't changed. Play calling was also shady in the passing game, Manning simply didn't have the time in the pocket for these plays to develop. I expect the coaches to start removing more down the field plays and start loading up on the short routes much like they did last year. Expect to see Manning start to roll out of the pocket (if you wanna call it that) more to buy a little time. Defensively, the Giants played solid. Really impressed with Goodson at linebacker.
  12. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    oh did I see some one raise their volunteering hand? Again you'll not need any grand excel skills for this weekly event. This person or persons whom elect to help out would also have an important role in collaborating with myself and others to determine the best formulas for projecting the winners of each game. would also provide collaboration to deterring the best formulas to project league standings. Please let me know as soon as you can about helping out. Thanks Mike
  13. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    Anyone interested in helping me collect stats throughout the season? If so, I'll get you more information via PM. Thanks.
  14. Total Control GM Mock Draft Improvement Talks

    I'm good man, just going through some stuff.
  15. Nick's All-NFL Rebuild Mock Draft! - (2017) - Discussion

    yes it does.
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