So, I'm going to take 3 years from now as the start of the 2023 season, as that specifically is important for certain contracts in this discussion.
Absolutely, 100%, without a shadow of a doubt: Chiefs, Texans, Seahawks
Chiefs, Texans, and Seahawks I think are the only three teams that have proven, consistently high performing QBs, that will still be under their current contract come 2023. I do think Wilson probably renegotiates by then, but there's almost no chance something doesn't get done there if it comes to that.
Probably, but rookies: Bengals, Chargers
I like Burrow and Herbert but don't trust a 6 game sample size.
Probably, but I could see a drop off happening, and the contract will be endable: Bills, Ravens, Titans, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals
I think Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott are all seen as young franchise QBs by their respective franchises, but I think there's just enough time and just enough doubt for something stupid to happen. Dallas seems to really not want to pay Dak, and the injury will only make things more complicated. Jackson and Allen each have a presumed 2 years left on their deal, and should be locks for an extension at the end of that, but weirder falloffs have happened. Could see a situation with a down year but still wanting to get paid by MVP candidates. Not likely, but not Wilson/Mahomes level locks. Tannehill is still under contract at that point, so if he's anything close to this he'll be kept. At 35 at that point, though. Wentz is the trickiest one, I think, because he's still under contract at that point, it's just a question of if the spiral continues. I'd be really surprised if the Rams move on from Goff by then, but at the same time, I'm just so very uninspired by Goff. Murray has shown a bit, but not quite enough to call him a lock either. I would expect him to get the option for 2023, but there's a lot of time left there.
I don't think so, but it could happen: Patriots, Browns, Jacksonville, Broncos, Las Vegas, Bears, Lions, Panthers, 49ers
I honestly like Minshew, but I don't trust that team to be stable enough to keep a QB that long. They'll have a new FO and new coach and that almost always brings QB turnover. Mayfield has a similar FO situation I don't trust, with the added benefit of me not thinking he's a good QB. I think if Baker is still around by then, it will have more to do with Stefanski panning out as a head coach, than Baker panning out as a QB. Newton seems like a stopgap in a weird season, not a long term solution. Also it's just hard to like his playstyle when he'll be in his mid-30s by then, too. Lock seems really uninspiring to me so far. I keep seeing articles about how he has "it" or how you just have to believe in him, and it all just seems like really verbose ways to get around the fact that he just hasn't played all that well as a QB so far. Burrow and Herbert have already passed him by, IMO. I think Vegas gets just impatient enough with Carr to move on. He's a free cut in 2 years, a free agent in 3. If you don't win anything with a QB in like 8+ years, I feel like you should move on. But he could just be the next Stafford, too. Speaking of, I just have to imagine he's sick of it by now, right? He has to try something different, as does Detroit. If Stafford still starts for Detroit in 2023, it'll be a damn shame. Bridgewater doesn't strike me as the guy long term. Fantastic stopgap, but I feel like they have to want their own guy as a long term plan. Jimmy G is basically a free cut after this year, and I really think he just holds them back more than he helps.
They'll probably retire, but what is age anymore?: Steelers, Colts, Packers, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers
Ryan is the youngest of this group, at 35, so he could still be around at this point, I just don't know why he would want to be. The others should be clearly over the hill by then. Rodgers at 40 would be the next youngest, but Green Bay would jettison him by then if he doesn't retire.
No chance whatsover: Dolphins, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Vikings
Fitzmagic will probably still be playing, knowing him, but there's literally 0 chance it's on the same roster. I think Darnold should get some time to sit and learn somewhere, but far, far away from the Jets. Daniel Jones is trash. I assume that isn't a hot take anymore. I don't see any of the Redskins QBs surviving that long, for obvious reasons with each.
Cousins I want to separate here, because his contract situation is....fun. I don't think it's possible to argue, from an on field perspective, that Cousins should not be immediately removed from the Vikings roster this offseason. But there's a really crucial contract trigger on day 3 of the 2021 season, so about 4 or 5 months from now. His 2021 salary is already guaranteed. So if he is cut at any point prior to day 3 of the 2021 season, they'll eat his full 2021 salary of $21M, and his prorated bonuses for 2021 and 2022, for $20M total. So on roster in 2021, he would cost them $31M against the cap. To cut him, he would cost a total of $41M. So the dead money exceeds his cap hit by $10M. Rough hit to take in a (likely) low cap year. BUT, if they wait, it arguably gets worse. Because on day 3 of the 2021 league year, his 2022 salary gets guaranteed. That 2022 salary is a whopping $35M. Throw in the prorated bonus, and his 2022 cap hit if he is on roster, OR if he's cut after day 3 of 2021, would be $45M. That's Mahomes money at that point, for a QB no one wants. My expectation would be that the bite the bullet, cut him ASAP this offseason, and take the extra $10M hit in 2021, to save the $35M hit in 2022. But there will almost unquestionably be consequences to that, financially.