Jakuvious

I'd presume Hardman and Robinson take most of Conley's targets. Williams picks up most of what remains from Hunt.

This is correct.

@BleedTheClock I'm not a mod in NFL News, but I'm going to be honest with you, your last two posts are how this thread is going to very quickly find itself locked, like every Tyreek thread before it.

Cool.

If you're including a lack of health, though, his floor, and everyone's floor, is by necessity, zero. When someone says what a floor is, it absolutely assumes health. Otherwise the whole thing becomes pointless. We're more talking a realistic floor than a theoretical floor. Theoretically everyone's floor would be 0, while the ceiling would be whatever amount of TDs is physically possible within the time constraints of an NFL season, which would likely be something in the 100s. So yes, pieces around him can regress, but it isn't like Kelce is going to suddenly become a bottom 5 TE. It is a safe bet that he will still have a great TE. It is a safe bet that Reid will keep calling plays well, as he has for almost two decades. It is a safe bet that Hill will still be faster than 99% of the league. These are things that could, theoretically, go a different direction, but those aren't realistic things to try to factor in when deciding a floor. Maybe Kelce regresses to a low end top 10 TE or something, but he isn't going to suck. Maybe Reid designs plays a little more poorly, but he isn't going to suddenly become Brian Daboll or something. I'm not surrounding the floor comment with things that need to go right, I'm surrounding the floor comment with things we know. If I asked you the Patriots floor for wins this year, I doubt you'd tell me 0, or even the 2 you think they'd get without Brady or something. You'd likely factor in the fact that, hey, we know they have a HOF QB. Hey, we know they have a HOF HC. That raises the floor a bit. Sure, Bill Belichek could spontaneously combust next weekend, and that would likely through a wrench in things, but that's not really useful to that kind of question.

I dont agree with Buck, exactly, because a floor should be a worst case scenario kind of thing. But you should add context to those numbers. The prediction obviously assumes Mahomes's health. The benefits still exist from last year in a strong OT duo, Reid at head coach, and Hill/Kelce/Watkins. Many of the years the QBs you list didn't hit that mark were because of clear unfavorable situations. Or poor health. Or season's in the early 2000s when running in the red zone was the league wide norm. Take Rodgers. 4/11. Two of those years were half injured. So that's 4/9 when healthy. And 3 of those missed years were to start his career, before his first all pro or superbowl. Before elite Rodgers, really. Since he has been 4/6 when healthy. With one of the two remaining being last year when the support clearly wasnt there. Brady, similarly, had a 5 year start to his career without them. In a run heavy league on a defense oriented Patriots team. 2 years injured. So since his first, he is 4/10 when healthy. Peyton, again. 6 years without in the early 2000s. 4/10 once he got his first, including a 3/3 run to end his career. This isn't about every year of Mahomes's career, it's just about next year. We know things about next year that raise the odds in ways that Peyton didn't have in 2001 or Brady in 2005 or whatever. It isn't a rushing league. The coach is there. The weapons are there. The need to score is there with our defense. Mahomes doing it next year is different from someone doing it over their career. A lot changes in 17 years. There's a lot of reasons in those different seasons that those QBs didn't pass for 35.

Allen Bailey would likely be a DT in a 4-3, not a DE. Doesn't have the speed or pass rush moves to play outside. Otherwise, he's....okay. Better as a pass rusher than he is as a run defender. Strong bull rush but that's about it.

Our starting C, despite starting about a third of the season last year, and grading higher than Morse in most regards, is a 58. I get Allegretti being that low, but Reiter showed more than enough to where he should be behind most team's backups. OL is really where I take the most issue with the Chiefs ratings in general. Schwartz is the only elite guy we have, sure, but you don't get an offense of that caliber with garbage at 4 spots on the OL. Fisher and LDT are average to a little above average. Erving and Reiter aren't exactly stars, but both are rated below backups and guys with basically no track record. We were top 5 in rushing YPA and in sack rate. But left to right our OL is 74, 67, 58, 78, 93. That means our OL overall averages out to a 74. Maybe it's the result of the ratings being lower. But a couple of those for sure feel low to me.

Former: Will Shields, Derrick Thomas Current: Patrick Mahomes, Larry Fitzgerald (since giving one to Mahomes would presumably already give one to the Chiefs) Kind of random/strange honorable mention, for former players, but it always pains me to think of the timing of Logan Mankins career. He had the longest career possible with the Patriots this millennium without winning a superbowl. Drafted the offseason after their third superbowl win, traded in the offseason before their fourth. Just painful.

Gotta get in early to rack up those easy likes.

MLB CB CB OLB Interior OL

Maybe. But I could absolutely see different teams take different approaches to it if it's not overly structured or strict on when those 16 games are. Some teams might attempt to push them as late in the season as possible so that injuries can spare them some of the required games missed. Some teams might choose to bench their whole roster once, some teams might do it in pieces so they still have a chance to win every game. Maybe you bench your starting QB in the easiest two games of the season and still try to win those. Maybe you look at the games against the Pats and Rams on the schedule and decide to just not try those. I think there's plenty of ways coaches could choose to approach it. I don't think it's a good idea. But I do think it would be interesting to see how the strategy around it develops. I think those saying you'd just have two more weeks of preseason are underestimating things there.

This could be kind of intriguing from a strategy perspective. In a non-sensical kind of way.

Might have to wait another year still for that 2k season.

They were favored by like 5 or 6, but public opinion was leaning towards Indy going into that game. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/colts-chiefs-betting-odds-opening-spread-trends-for-afc-divisional-game