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  1. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    And for all the cautionary examples of RBs not living up to their contacts... There are plenty of similar examples for qbs: Brock Osweiler, Blake Bortles, Joe Flacco, Mike Glennon, Matt Flyn, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, etc...
  2. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    Different cap era... The cap has tripled since then... Cap roll over was not a thing back then... And rookie contracts were out of control. Ie, Young got a 58M contract as a rookie, 26M guaranteed right out the gate...this when the cap was just over 100M. Fast forward to now where Murray got 35M, 23.5M guaranteed. This was an era where GMs would have to extend contracts to lower cap hits... Mortgaging the future for wins in the moment. But yeah, the Titans got into cap hell in 2006, 2 full seasons after Eddie played his last down as a Titan. The league and contracts have changed so much since then. Teams now minimize salary bonuses in lieu of roster bonuses, making contracts easier to get out of, without having to mortgage future cap seasons.
  3. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    We may not have made the SB, but we, along with other teams showed that you can definitely win in today's NFL with a balanced team. But to put contracts in perspective... And taking just APY for the sake of simplicity... Eddie's context in 2000 was 6/42 (plus an additional option year... Which never came into play as he was gone 4 years into the contract) = 7M/year... With a 62M cap. That's 1/9th of total cap room, 11%...APY-wise. Even if Henry gets 14M APY, that's with a 200M cap... Less than 1/14th of the cap... 7% (not even taking into account the 20M roll over). The devaluation of the running game is already a part of the current market.
  4. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    I keep saying Henry has surpassed the "just a RB" talk, into an Eddie realm. Eddie obviously had more success early on, rushing for 1290+ yards each of his first 4 years. In fact, bulk stats are better... 1360 carries, 5365 yards, 3.9 ypc, 28tds, 114 rec, 994 yards 8.7 ypr, 6 tds... to Henry's 804 carries, 3833, 38 tds, 4.8 ypc, 57 rec, 578 yards, 10.1 ypr, 3 tds. Henry's been the more efficient back, both in yards per touch and tds per touch. But there are similarities between Henry now and when Eddie became one of the highest paid RBs in 2000 (6/42M). Just like Henry, Eddie was the leader and face of the team. McNair was obviously one of our all time greats, but it was Eddie who rallied the team, especially off the field. Eddie didn't have his 1500+, SB bound season until 2000, after he signed his extension. He wasn't able to replicate his success after 2000,but he also had over 1750 carries after those 5 seasons. Even if Henry matches his workload this coming season, he'll have over 600 less carries than Eddie had through 5 years. I know we have to worry about the on the field product, but reality is we're a team in desperate need of an identity, a face, marketability... Not just in Nashville, but outside it. There are acouple people at work whose kids, early teens, became Titans fans this postseason... They have no connection to the Texas team like some of us "old timers" do. Henry was obviously the catalyst to that. And while that kinda effect should only be secondary, it can't be ignored. Henry's value off the field, in the locker room, in the media, and with fans has value. But it's not like that's all he offers. While he may not be in the conversation for the best all round back in the NFL, he's probably the best pure runner in the league... He's able to get the tough yards and also able to take it to the house on any carry... He breaks tackles in the backfield and is a nightmare once he gets past the 1st level. He's also the type of player that gets better as the game and season wears on. He has probably about 2-3 years of this elite level play left in him, which is why the structure of the contract will matter much more than the total and APY values of the contract. But we need to bring him back. Analytics and conventional wisdom be dammed... <<gasp>>
  5. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    The Colts have 91M and that OL... Would be deadly there and we'd face twice a year. The Dolphins also have 91M and I don't think they'd mind giving someone like him to help transition a thing qb. The Bucs have 81M and need a RB... Imagine having to defend Evans and Godwin while been shredded by someone like Henry. The Seahawks have 60M and love a bruising back. Would pair great with Wilson. The Texans and Chargers also have more cap room than us currently... And have a need at RB. I can also see Patricia liking him in Detroit, and are sitting with 49M. Would be the best back Stafford has ever worked with. If he tests the FA market, he's getting paid more than you think he is. The key is getting him at a "discount" without testing the waters. He seems willing to do that. APY and total contract don't matter... It's all about the guarantee and the first 2-3 year structure.
  6. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    Big difference between cap hits and APY. I'm almost positive Henry will be resigned before FA. Even if he gets something around 13-14M, his cap hit year 1 will be around 7-9... The smaller it is te more you push forward. We can technically give him all SB and minimal salary in year 1 to minimize his cap hit now... But it puts you up against it later. Hoy can save 1.5M by franchising Conklin and transitioning RT (instead of vice versa)... But that make negotiations harder with Conklin, setting a slightly higher guarantee starting point. But the goal, even if tagging them is to resign them long term eventually. Ideally you sign Conklin long term... Something like 4/60...and keep his cap hit in year 1 around 8-10. But tagging both and taking Henry's cap hit into account outs us at close to 50 of that 70M... And still with a lot of holes to fill. You can still sign an impact Edge for a similar cap hit to Conklin. So that's Henry @ 8M, Conklin @ 10M, edge @ 10M...that's 28...another 24M for RT with the transition tag... And that's 52...leaving 18M to fill in the roster w/value FAs. I still think we decide between Casey and Daquan... That's 22M committed to them 2. Maybe Daquan extends, lowering his cap hit. But if we go 4-3 as the "base" and even if we plan to continue running a "2-4-5 base", Daquan is a luxury 3rd DT we'd have to trim.
  7. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    That figure includes the projected increase. The cap is expected to be between 196M and 201M (per the NFL... Up from 188M this year)... The figure I used (from Spotrac) figures the cap at 199M, so it could go up or down a couple million, depending on the final actual number. This figure also includes 20M of rollover from this year's cap. 51M (give or take a couple M) is our starting point before cuts and resignings/extensions.
  8. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    Currently projected at ~50M (51.5M)... Can save 5.5M from cutting Wake 6.5M from cutting Walker 4M from cutting Lewis 2M from cutting Succop That automatically puts us in the 70M range (69.5). We also have a few other less likely options: Cutting Daquan saves 7M. Unlikely move... but if we move to a 4-3 D... are we going to carry the 3rd DT (behind Casey and Simmons) with an 8.3M cap hit?... Cutting Casey saves us 10M. Again, an unlikely move. Finished the season stronger... and has been our best player and team leader for so long. But we do need to acknowledge that 10M is 10M. He carries a 13+M cap hit through '22. Cutting Butler saves us 7.4M. Unlikely, although could be an option if we prefer to resign Ryan. I think it's more likely we keep him over Ryan while drafting a CB early this year to potentially replace Butler in '21 (when we save 10M from the cap if we cut him then) Also, in regards to our FA's... Firsker, Batson, and Gilbert are all ERFA's... and can be kept at the minimum salary. Tye Smith is an RFA and can be tendered at his original round (5th) for 2M. Everyone else is a UFA. But we can use both the transition tag and franchise tag this year. Those projected figures are: Position Franchise Tag Transition Tag QB $26,895,000 $24,373,000 DE $19,316,000 $16,338,000 WR $18,491,000 $15,926,000 CB $16,471,000 $14,570,000 LB $16,266,000 $14,080,000 OL $16,102,000 $14,666,000 DT $15,500,000 $12,321,000 S $12,735,000 $10,801,000 RB $12,474,000 $10,189,000 TE $11,076,000 $9,267,000 ST $5,297,000 $4,884,000
  9. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    Our D definitely took a hit after he went down Week 9. We went from giving up 236 pass yards/game in the first 9 weeks to 279 after. Other factors come into play (ie, Wake going down Week 12, Adoree missing the final few weeks, etc), but getting Butler back healthy next year helps a lot. At this point, I've just about given up the thought of Ryan coming back. We got him "cheap" at 3/30M last time. If we could get him on a similar deal, it's almost too good to pass up... but you'd think he'll cost at least a little more due to cap inflation... and the fact that he's a better player, a widely regarded as such since last time he was a FA. Some team will offer more than we'll match. But I'm ok with that... and using his money to get a top tier pass rusher... Clowney (27 - 6/120M), Ngauke (25 - 5/85M), Dupree (27 - 5/83M) or Fowler (26 - n/a) Beasley (28 - N/A)... the parentheses are their current age and Spotrac's calculated market values. There's some value guys we can get, but they come with some question marks... Barrett (27 - 4/63M), Judon (28 - 4/65M), Lawson (26 - 4/30), or Golden (28 - 4/54). JPP could be an intriguing option, but is also a bit older at 31, although he's still putting up high sack numbers (8.5 sacks and 16 qb hits this past year, and 12.5/20 the year before). I'd have the same concerns about him as I did with Wake... maybe slightly less, but still there. Either way, JRob seems to have a ton of options at Edge, which he absolutely needs to target. If we land a strong pass rusher, I'd move CB to the top of my 1st round wish list. I'd still also double up on an Edge in the early/mid rounds. I'd also love to keep Correa, but his finish to the season may have priced him out as a rotation player here... he quietly put up 6 sacks in the months of Dec/Jan (after putting up only 1 in the first 3 months).
  10. 2020 Titans Off-Season

    Thought more people would jump on this... But this speaks to his character and leadership. It's what helped Brady become who he is... And why the argument that a RB is not worth much is failing in this scenario. Henry is much more than just a RB. Zeke and Gurley were never seen as team leaders, worth as much in the locker room and in the PR area as they were on the field. In an age where everyone wants to test the market and get every last dollar... Henry's saying he's willing to take less than what the market dictates to stay with the team he loves.
  11. 2020 Titans Off-Season

  12. Titans DC Dean Pees Retires

    Yeah, he did great during his time in ... ranked top 5 in D all 3 seasons or 2 of the 3 with the other being a top 10 finish. Also ranked among the highest in blitz %... very aggressive, attacking defense. And it was down to us and the Giants a couple of years ago... Vrabel's first and only target before he turned to Pees. Maybe it'll be a connection the 2nd time around. He's also extremely flexible... would run numerous formations where the 5 guys near the LOS would consist of 1 DL and 4 LBs crowding the line, almost acting as interchangeable DL. Even after the failure in NY, I'd be very intrigued to pair him with Vrabel.
  13. Titans DC Dean Pees Retires

    Bettcher and Richard are the 2 names that intrigue me most right now.
  14. From "The Guy of the Guy"

    That's officially my stance as well. I'm not pro/anti Tanny, Brady, Rivers, etc. While I believe Tanny is our best option going forward, I don't think he's dramatically better than the other FA options, and not worth a substantially richer contract. But I also think our offense has a better chance to continue its success with Henry and a one of those other "top" FA QB options than we are with Tanny without Henry. Tanny is a good game manager, but not someone who's going to consistently win when he needs to be the main catalyst. Henry, Brown, Davis, Smith, Humphries are not a group to sneeze at. This would be a great set of tools for any of those QBs available. Another year of continuity on the OL is also going to be huge.