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Broncofan

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Broncofan last won the day on October 9 2018

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  1. Free Agent Frenzy

    And half the mileage, too. I love what Wolfe did for us, but I'll take Harris at 2.5M guaranteed, and only 750K more in bonuses. 6.5M isn't bad at all, but the risk baked in with Wolfe's 3rd contract, and his injuries & wear/tear, sorry, that's an easy decision there. Harris offers more potential for inside pass rush disruption, too. Not going to second guess Elway at all on this decision.
  2. Free Agent Frenzy

    Interesting that Shelby took the deal at that price (clearly getting the market rate now that the first wave has passed). Wonder what Wolfe ends up getting and with which team . I have nothing but respect for Wolfe but for the $ I’d have chosen Harris at that price too.
  3. 2020 College Prospects

    In a perfect world he’s the 2nd WR we take. Rd 3-4 it’s such a great opp to get high end talent. It’s so rare to see both RB & WR be loaded at the top tier talent wise but that’s 2020. I’d love that pick too.
  4. Broncos sign Melvin Gordon

    No objections to that advantage as a reason like I said he’s a clear upgrade in the pass pro and catch game - but the opportunity cost on allocating resources there and then also passing on RB Rd3-4 as a result are still the problems down the line. If Elway still mines the RB elite talent pool in Rd 3-4 it really mitigates one of the major issues.
  5. Broncos sign Melvin Gordon

    Yeah, if Elway still took a great RB at Rd3-4 with 4 picks in that range, a LOT of my objections with his signing would go away, given the impact rookies make usually is felt in year 2-4 for Day 2 picks (or later). Then the objection becomes more about allocation of resources there and leaving CB/WR/DL unaddressed, and how much of an upgrade MG3 really represents if you make him the running bellcow over Lindsay (there's no argument on pass pro and receiving MG3 gives us something Lindsay hasn't matched, or come that close) - but it's a secondary concern for me. The worst case scenario for me is where we don't leverage this incredible opportunity of high-ceiling RB talent likely available in Rd 3-4, and if that comes to pass, it will be totally due to Elway signing MG3.
  6. Broncos sign Melvin Gordon

    Well, that same abundance of high-tier RB's is why teams usually wait until Rd2-3 to pick a RB even when they have a need. The devaluation of RB's is insane. We could see 1 or no RB go Rd1 this year (well, you never know what SEA will do lol). Having 6-7 top ceiling RB's and this WR class, there's likely 2-3 RB's that fall to Rd3. That's the sweet spot. Teams like us that have 3 3rd's, really have a unique opportunity, as we could take RB as overall BPA - but that probability goes way down, given the way Elway usually operates once he thinks we are close to contention. The bird-in-hand analogy is fair - but the lost opportunity cost if DEN passes on one of those top tier guys in Rd3 is the bigger point. And the economics really matter because of where we're not allocating it to. Paying MG3 8M is 8M to a WR2, or a CB, or a DL. That's the part that's a lot tougher to swallow. Again, I have nothing against MG3 - he's a good player. Just not elite...so giving him 20+ touches, and giving Lindsay 10-12, isn't nearly as big of an impact than say Lindsay/rookie RB & addressing a different, more difficult-to-find help position. That's all.
  7. FFMD ll 20’ - Denver Broncos Front Office

    Sorry guys normally I'd love to help but RL intervening. If I get 1+ hour to browse all day/night that's rare. GL guys, just remember if the top 3 WR's are gone, BPA will still land you someone great unless the FF guys all ignore QB. GL!
  8. Broncos sign Melvin Gordon

    The problem is this - this draft class has literally about 6-7 guys who could let Lindsay be the Batman, and they be the Robin - and potentially be better than Lindsay has been. And when you see 6-7 guys like that, there are 3-4 guys who we're likely missing. So the opportunity to mine a 3+ year starter-level RB at rookie wage prices from Rd3-4 is literally one of the market inefficiencies we can exploit. And unlike other years, we don't have to spend a Rd2 pick to get a guy who normally goes in the top tier of talent - because the top-end talent is that rich. Fundamentally, it's not just about the 8M - it's about the replaceability of the position, and in this year's draft, the lost opportunity cost. If this was a team that was a RB away from putting it over the top...sure, I can see it. But we're not. Lock's given us way more hope than we've had since pre-PFM for a young QB. And the core is getting better. But this wasn't a fortune-changing move, it was a win-now 2020 move. Which is laudable in some respects - but the win-now moves the past 2 years have been the ones that have generally backfired the most, though I will grant Kareem Jackson signing at age 29 is the one shining exception, and we all hope the no-risk trade for Jurrell Casey is as well. But those positions are almost impossible to replace with a Day 2 rookie pick - where RB this year, it's literally one of the best around (we're also spoiled by the 2017 RB draft class, but 2020 shapes up to be in that range). Don't get me wrong, MG3 is a good player. And he's a big upgrade in the pass catching game. But he's actually not nearly as good of a vision/power runner as Lindsay (though he knows how to get the tough extra yards and get skinny to find the first down marker/EZ, which Lindsay has as well). Still, there's no doubt MG3-Lindsay is a much better 1-2 punch. It's just that a Lindsay-Rd3 RB offers the potential to be just as effective, or 90 percent - at a much, much lower cost, and 4 years of cheap cost control - which then allows us to spend on 2nd WR, CB, DL, etc. It's just a horrible allocation of resources for our team make-up. Thinking win-now even with teams iffy on the talent to get there, we all know it's been Elway's motto. He's never willing to concede that the chances to be a true contender are small,and plan long-term over short-term since pre-PFM. If he keeps drafting well on Day 2 for a 3rd straight year after his disaster 2013-7 run, it's going to be completely justifiable very soon vs. the past 2 years, when it's been completely indefensible. It's just that it's not as likely to be the key move here....and even if we go with the win-now scenario, RB allocation over CB/WR/DL....man, pretty iffy.
  9. Free Agent Frenzy

    Dorsett signed a 1-year / 1M deal too. A guy like Sharpe, Higgins, Dorsett all would fit the bill so cheaply. Dorsett & Perriman (who was much more expensive, so I get it) offer the verticality that we lack. Again, to be clear we clearly should target WR with likely 1 of our top 2 picks, given the top-end talent that will be available (would not reach at 15 for anyone outside the top 3, though). But the thought we only need to invest into 1 high-end rookie is questionable. There is NO one on our roster that we can assume can be a WR2 - and a rookie being ready to help right away is a 1-2x a year event. Even guys like Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown took a while to really take off - and they're already outliers for having a year 1 impact. There are a ton of rookie WR's who end up being elite ceiling / top-tier guys...who don't make much an impact year 1. Even Sutton's impact was tough to call him WR2 level. The draft is not how you improve present-year odds outside of Rd1. If it happens, great. But you cannot be banking on it, save for RB, and maybe ILB (but even then, it's not even close to the same as RB impact). It's why I truly don't see our legit window for sustained contention to open until 2021, even assuming Lock progresses, and our youth core advances. We're headed in the right way, but the holes our roster has post-FA now, and likely still even after the bargain basement / roster cuts providing choices, just has us at that better-but-not-contender stage. Then again, we still have a lot more hope than last year, and it's refreshing not to have to worry about what QB Elway is targeting this offseason (succeed or fail, it's Lock's team for likely 2020 & entering 2021). Side note - the draft going on schedule is a terrible move by the NFL. Draft guys not doing full workouts, and no interviews/visits - man, there's going to be a TON of variation on player valuation this draft. The NFL should delay the draft 4-6 weeks - it's not like there's a realistic hope OTA's will be happening as scheduled, or that players will be in the same conditioning/readiness then anyways. SMH.
  10. Trade idea! Thoughts?

    If a team wants one person badly enough they will pay to move up at book prices or better. But if that special guy isn’t there book price doesn’t apply either as it’s too high. The Pats have traditionally move down not up. I don’t see the QB class left as someone that will entice them to change that view. I know it could apply to other teams but this offseason is different in that the vet talent supply outweighs the demand. That situation has really suppressed the QB market. It’s hard to see how it will shake out after Tua & Herbert go. Sadly if there’s big movement it seems like it’s going to be for Tua. The buzz on other guys not even close to the same degree. Now on our end - assuming 3 QB do get picked before 15 seems safe. The odds that a difference maker a marked tier above In the ceiling / floor is there compared to what’s left at 20’s seems really high. Last year when we were at 10 the drop to 20 wasn’t that high. Why trading down made sense on paper. But if we are sitting on 1 of the top 4 T or top 3 WR at 15, a D guy like Simmons (ok lets face it not happening) or even Kinlaw as overall BPA then it’s an easy no. That tier of talent won’t be there at the 20’s.
  11. General Final Fantasy Thread

    Yeah these are first world problems. This is the first time thought that the digital model will probably get no complaints if all the stores have shut down.
  12. General Final Fantasy Thread

    I have always bought physical copies of games but the threat of a lockdown might push this to an online purchase. Man. Ive got my preorder in with no deposit so I’m good either way but have to admit I’m not at all convinced either stores will be open or the games will arrive on the 10th. Fingers crossed.
  13. Free Agent Frenzy

    That’s the issue in a nutshell. Signing MG3 likely means Elway won’t invest a Rd3-4 pick in this loaded top end RB class. The rookie deal value compared to MG3’s FA deal isn’t even close. Now, most years the guy you get at Rd3-4 are iffy to project star level ceiling impact. Or those types come with incredibly low floors. This class is so loaded at the top end, though, that it’s a huge opportunity to mine Rd2 typical RB value at Rd3-4. That’s the huge lost opportunity. And it makes an even bigger compound effect if Elway then waits to 2021 or 2022 to draft RB - because it’s incredibly unlikely either class will match the same top-end depth. The kicker is Lindsay is due to get paid when MG3 is in his final year. So it’s more likely Elway will pick RB out of need then rather than mine peak value now and not be forced into a need pick situation. MG3 is a good player. He’s not elite. And it’s literally the easiest skill position to replace. Just can’t feel good about this move at all.
  14. Free Agent Frenzy

    The biggest problem is that I’d bet dimes to dollars that Elway will now pass on RB in Rd 3-5 when it was could have found a difference making talent - Akers, CEH, Gibson, etc. where we had 4 picks in Rd 3-4 in the 77-120 range. The numbers game meant at least 1 top 6-7 RB was likely going to be there. Getting a lead back with rookie level contracts is one of most exploitable market inefficiencies around. Instead we are likely passing on that opportunity in one of deepest top end RB classes around. Ugh this is 100x worse than letting Janovich go, if that scenario comes to pass. The $ could have been spent better elsewhere for sure, but the lost opportunity cost if we pass on this deep top end RB class is going to hurt way more. Meh.
  15. Free Agent Frenzy

    Not a fan of this. The most disposable and replaceable position around. Meh.
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