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Broncofan

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Broncofan last won the day on March 20

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  1. Allbright says no. Klis says no as well.
  2. It goes without saying MIA props don't work if the big Watson deal happens (unlikely he'd play this week, and Brissett vs. ATL is a whole different prop, no thx).
  3. Well, that's the thing - especially if you're only doing 1-2 plays a week, then you're really narrowing the focus to what you like the most. The benefit of single bets vs. teasers ROI-wise is over time, over large numbers of bets. The risk inherent with taking +money bets if you're only making 1-2 bets each week means there is a LOT bigger swings in bankroll, too. The math clearly shows the benefit to the ATS / ML single bets - but it assumes a large bankroll, and a high enough volume of picks where the difference plays out.
  4. I would stay far, far, far away from DEN-CLE line. Yes, OMG Case Keenum sucks. Yes, there is no Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb. Here's the thing though - the one guy who made Keenum OK for one year - Minnesota OC Kevin Stefanski in 2017. And the formula was a top 10 OL, a great run game, and a D that only allowed 17 pts per game, so no pressure on Keenum to produce points. Against DEN, the CLE D isn't great (see below for more), but they may be able to create a similar situation with DEN not scoring a ton (17-20 pts). Now, we know Keenum is NOWHERE near as good a thrower as
  5. The reason why single plays are more profitable than teasers are for 3 reasons: 1. Teasers have a fixed payout. As I mentioned, approximately 75 percent of dogs who cover ATS with +6 or less also win the game. ML's for dogs are uber profitable, and RACES even more so. You don't even need to hit 40 percent correct to be profitable. 2. Single plays are riskier in theory - but they are also only subject to variance for 1 game. With teasers, you could make great calls on both games, but random variance alone means some of those games won't hit (TAM going -4 vs. DAL on TNF is a
  6. I actually took IND ML. The one reason I'm a little leery is Frank Reich, both in how he limits Jonathan Taylor's usage for Mack (which is totally asinine), and his game management decisions which fails to maximize their win potential (on full display MNF @ BAL). It's not even that I'm calling the IND victory as a lock - just IND has more paths to victory with J-Taylor / Wentz than I see with JimmyG / no Kittle (sorry @N4L). There's a really neat stat that shows that if an underdog covers +6 or less - they win the game outright >75 percent of the time. I won't do it for TEN +5.
  7. To say that's an exaggeration is an understatement. Losing Baker and having Keenum is a 3-6 pt swing (about 2-3 pts in Vegas terms). So it's significant. But putting those 4 on the list if they play, that would still put CLE ahead in my books. But I had the Browns winning 30-20 before with Baker. This becomes more of a 23-20 / 24-20 type deal, and obv. the Broncos could pull it off. It's pretty dire though when a team loses their starting QB and both RB's, and best ILB, and yet the team is still a favorite (yes, we've lost our ILB's, but if we lost both RB's and Teddy and h
  8. Week 7 Denver at Cleveland Carolina at N.Y. Giants Atlanta at Miami Washington at Green Bay Cincinnati at Baltimore N.Y. Jets at New England Kansas City at Tennessee Detroit at L.A. Rams Philadelphia at Las Vegas Houston at Arizona Chicago at Tampa Bay Indianapolis at San Francisco New Orleans at Seattle Survivor: LAR (CIN, CAR, DEN, CLE, DAL, IND)
  9. Interestingly, action is on the under, so now it's D'Ernest Johnson O59.5 - 105. I'll gladly take that for 2U. I also like Courtland Sutton O65.5 yards with the Baker news. The CLE run game should still be successful, but I don't foresee CLE dominating ToP with Keenum as the QB. On the flip side, I expect Sutton to have a lot of success vs. the CLE secondary. I do have 2 longshot TD props this week - both on Den's side. First, I'll go with Kendall Hinton +450 TD / +6600 2+ for 0.8U/0.4U, and then John Brown +1000 TD / +125000 2+ for 0.55U/0.25U (2U total TD props). The CL
  10. Sadly, most of the fanbase would take a L if it would convince the FO in what's looking already like a lost season (if we finish 9-8 vs. 7-10, not really a huge difference in the end) to finally cut bait. Lose the battle, win the war. It certainly does change this from an easy W with Baker/Landry/the T's back to now a much closer game, though.
  11. Re: Hinton's he's probably no better than a 4th WR on a good team right now, but he shows he belongs on a 53 man roster. I do like the elusiveness he brings and he's tightening up some of his cuts and patterns (he looped too many, and didn't attack the ball enough last year). He's got some wiggle and obviously is a smart guy being a former QB. Out of all the guys on our current backup WR stable, he's probably got the most room for growth. His raw tools give something to work with, and the progress he's shown is encouraging. If Jeudy's sitting out the TNF game (which I think is
  12. Teddy was acquired as a 1-year stopgap. It certainly wasn't a barrier to taking QB IMO. The decision to pass on Fields was purely out of the evaluation to win now, which IMO was a mistake. The perils of a GM coming in with a win-now HC and FO that has trouble looking long-term.
  13. I think it's a compound effect, with the DT's losing Bosa is trying to get upfield more, and that's create bad edge control vs. the rush. But I don't rewatch Chargers all-22 so could easily be off, just my impression when I watch the plays live and on early replay live.
  14. There's a TNF prop that ppl need to hammer hard now. D'Ernst Johnson O60.5 yard rushing -110 2U. Thinking VERY hard of doing 4U, TBH. Both Chubb and K-Hunt are ruled out, the other RB who's active is Felton, but he's a pure pass catcher (he's literally lined up as a wide receiver for the majority of his snaps). The backup RB is someone signed to the PS this week (John Kelley) who won't have the playbook down at all. And Johnson has stepped in 2-3x in 2020, and played well. So he has the coaching staff's trust. Denver's starting ILB's Josey Jewell & Alexander Johnson are
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