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Broncofan

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Everything posted by Broncofan

  1. State Farm Stadium 5:20 PM PST October 18th, 2018 Coverage: Fox / NFLN / Amazon (Announcers Joe Buck, Troy Aikman) DENVER (2-4, 5-11 in 2017, 4th AFCW); ARI (1-5, 8-8 in 2017, 3rd NFCW) Line: DEN -2, O/U somewhere around 41-42 pts DVOA through Week 5: DEN (#15 overall - #10 on O; #22 on D; #19 on ST), ARI (#30 overall - #31 on O, #8 on D, #24 on ST) DVOA Ranks: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff So, 2 teams that have coaching staff on the hot seat - HC Vance Joseph & DC Joe Woods for DEN, and OC Mike McCoy (HC Steve Wilks likely has more leash) for ARI. DEN coming off 4 L's after a 2-0 start against SEA/OAK at home (of which they should have rightfully lost vs. OAK), while ARI is scuffling on O, with a horrible O, and an incredibly unimaginative play calling scheme by good old Mike McCoy, who somehow keeps finding work as an OC despite his history of disasters post-Peyton (hmmm, maybe it wasn't McCoy behind the success there...crazy idea). Keys for this week: 1. How does ARI's awful OL protect Josh Rosen? Can they find success vs. DEN' suddenly porous run D? - The one area where we excel is in pass rush. The ARI OL is just awful at pass protection, and pretty awful overall. Rosen is the guy we should have drafted at 1.5, but hey, it's all good with Case Keenum as our QB (LOL). Still, he's a rookie, and so getting pressure and getting in his face is the key. On the run side, our run D has completely collapsed, with our CB's & EDGE's no longer able to provide contain, and our S & ILB's sudden unable to tackle at the 2nd level, leading to some monstrous games (Gurley & LAR no surprise, but NYJ 2 weeks b4 was an eye opener). The OL is the key here for ARI, because we are vulnerable in the run game, and we are incredibly stout in pass pro (we did give LAR's OL fits in pass rush). One HUGE break for ARI - Shane Ray has a HAS, so he's out 3-4 weeks, which means that our pass rush is easier to account for (rookie Bradley Chubb had a really good game, even if we should have gone Rosen 1.5, at least he's not been a bust pick so far, although he's not a traditional alpha EDGE threat). I'd imagine we see a lot of double-teams for Von on Thursday. 2. Can DEN's "It's Totally OK To Fly" Zone limit the ARI passing game?- Since 2016, DEN's D has been getting awful pass coverage play for RB's & TE's - but now, we suddenly can't cover anyone except for whoever Chris Harris Jr. covers. Bradley Roby should be wearing a t-shirt with a picture of toast on TNF instead of a jersey. Our 3rd CB's have been no better. And our TE/RB coverage is still non-existent. So while Fitz will have his hands full vs. Harris Jr., Christian Kirk, Ricky Seals-Jones, David Johnson and the 3rd WR receiver (Chad Williams?) should all have favorable matchups. It's why protecting Rosen long enough is so key, we are incredibly beatable in our pass protection. We're not the No Fly Zone, we're more like "Fly The Friendly Skies". If Rosen struggles, no surprise given our pass rush and his rookie learning curve. But if he excels, he will certainly show Elway the mistake he made in passing on a franchise QB in a very big and obvious way. 3. Can David Johnson break out this week? - Isiaih Crowell, then Todd Gurley gashed us for 200+ rushing yards. I don't see DJ having that kind of success, but I could definitely see 100+ which for him would feel like 200+..and 6/60 in pass catching. He's an absolute elite weapon mired behind a bottom 5 OL, so this is his chance to shine in prime time. 4.. Can DEN get ahead and rely on the run game instead of Case "OMG Elway how did you pass on Rosen for this guy" Keenum? - Case Keenum just sucks. The take that he was possibly a bargain over Cousins, or better to have than Carr, well, I hope ppl realize how awful those takes were. Late on reads, no pocket awareness, and zero anticipation / placement. But hey, besides that, all good. Ugh. If we are behind, we are dead in the water, having to rely on Keenum to bring us back. On the other had, we have a really good run game with Royce Freeman as the thunder & Philip Lindsay supplying the lightning. Our OL does excel at run blocking. That's the good news the bad news is that... 4. Can DEN's OL find any way to actually pass protect? - we just lost G Ron Leary, who's been battling injuries, and won't likely return for 2019. But the issue as with most teams - our replacement sucks hard (Max Garcia). Our T's literally cannot pass block, they made average Joe DE's/EDGE's look like HoF talent. And given Chandler Jones is a stud, and their front 7 (and safeties) are bringing the heat (with 4 players with 2 sacks and a lot more hurries) with Jones' 5.5 sacks, this is the D matchup where ARI has to be licking their chops. We are now down our starting RT Veldheer and have lost our LG Leary for the season, and both replacements pretty much suck. Our 2017 1st-round LT Bolles is a run block animal, but a total zero in pass pro (16 holds leads NFL since 2017 season started, and a ton of sacks/pressures given up too) 5. Can the DEN WR's / TE's win their matchups vs. ARI's D? - P-Pete we all know is an elite CB. The other emerging talent is S Budda Baker, he's the other guy who's made a huge mark as a game changing S (but no one is in Derwin James' stratosphere right now). PP will take out 1 of the 3 DEN WR's, and Baker's a force in the middle. Combine it with a huge pass rush, and I see the potential for 2-3 TO's for ARI's D on TNF. 6. Turnovers / Field Position / Turnovers - when you have 2 bad O's and losing teams, these little things often are the difference. HFA makes a big difference, although playing in altitude is one advantage that ARI won't experience vs. us. But it's why ToP and field position will be huge here. 7. Will anyone outside of DFS / Fantasy / Bettors / Local Fans even care? - frankly, I don't know that anyone outside of those groups should care lol. I will say, thank goodness for FF and DFS for games like this. With us 2-4 and in cap hell, and without a QBOTF, and the need to dump high-salary vets and get picks for UFA's who we won't be able to re-sign (Shane Ray and Shaq Barrett are the easy calls), it's weird that most of the DEN fans in FF are rooting for a L vs. ARI, to move up in a loaded top-end talent class. On paper, DEN's a 2-point favorite since we kept it close with LAR, and our O problems seem small compared to ARI's O issues. But the matchups actually all go in ARI's favor except our pass rush vs their OL, and our run game vs. their run D. In a tight game, I can see ARI pulling out a 23-17 W. A DEN W could happen if Mike McCoy pulls a McCoy, or we win the TO battle - but the ironic part is most of DEN's fans are hoping we lose, so we can be sellers at the Oct. 30 trade deadline, and lance the boil that is Vance Joseph as HC on our team. It might be the first time in a while that both home and visitor team fanbases are rooting for the same team (ARI) in Week 7 lol. Just over 2 days to TNF...can't wait (kinda, let's face it, we'll take any football then). Hopefully it's not a brutally painful game to watch with the 2 OL's so mismatched for pass protection.
  2. Carlos Hyde to Jags

    RB is that devalued. At least in PIT's case, they can conceivably get back a comp end-of-3rd or end-of-4th when Bell leaves. Hyde was a HUGE overpay for year 2-3 in the CLE deal...which had no guaranteed $ locked in, so that was always going to be a one-and-done deal. He's 6M for 2019 & 2020 each (approx)...which is way too much for RB unless you are elite-level, and certainly not if you are a 2-down thumper only. He's probably not even sniffing half of that next season, barring some major incredible OMG-level run with Fournette re-injury (let's face it, that's what he's been bought for, not just pre-bye week replacement for a huge game next week @PHI, but also because the risk of re-injury with Fournette even when he returns is sky-high). So, Hyde is a rental...and CLE has Duke Johnson & Chubb who can step in and probably give better production. Kind of a natural win-win scenario...for everyone except Hyde fantasy owners.
  3. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    You don't have Patrick Peterson on the team and then put them into a zone D. At the very least, you run a Peterson island - rest in zone type scheme. I think there's a real chance Wilks is one and done. He's trying to fit players to his scheme and not the other way around. That rarely works (see: Rex Ryan in BUF and a top 5 D destroyed the next 2 years).
  4. Carlos Hyde to Jags

    As a Chubb owner in 2 redrafts OMG yes. Fournette owners - DO NOT DESPAIR. Why? Let me explain. JAX is in win now mode. They have a week 9 bye but they have a @PHI game week 8 they can’t win without a run game. And Yeldon is getting beat up. He can’t run 15x a game each week. This is a pure stop gap move because they are all in for 2018. JAX also only has 13M in 2018-19 combined cap room. So they aren’t going to spend to upgrade so they need a cheap stopgap. Hyde’s contract also factors in - as JAX is tight against the cap and faces real problems next year. They are only on the hook for just under 850k of his 1.5M salary. CLE assumes ALL the prior bonus $. And in 2019 - there is no dead money. None. A 1.4M roster bonus is due on the 3rd day of the new financial year (March 2019). Hyde will get cut before then. https://overthecap.com/player/carlos-hyde/2996 Hyde is insurance. When Fournette is healthy Hyde goes to the bench. If Fournette gets hurt again they can go Hyde-Yeldon as the combo that can last. With Corey Grant on IR it had to be more than just Yeldon until Fournette returned. They can’t afford to lose more games if they want the division and a top 2 bye. This just was their all in move. But it’s not even close to a signal they are ready to give up on Fournette this year. And next year they let Hyde walk and hope to collect a comp pick back. There is no long term move away from Fournette. Anyone who says that isn’t paying attention to Hyde’s contract and the JAX cap situation. The player who is screwed fantasy wise is Hyde. Yeldon will get all the JAX pass work like Duke did in CLE . Fournette will send Hyde to the bench once he’s healthy. This just allows JAX to not abuse Yeldon and let Fournette get healthy for when it really matters - but still win while he’s out. And long term Hyde’s going to have to find a new home 1 year older. The owners who should be thrilled are Chubb owners. Fournette owners, don’t despair. Pour one out for the Hyde owners.
  5. GDT: Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

    Re: Lindsay 4Q Freeman sprained his ankle. Given that I think the staff gets a pass. Kinda. I agree Booker could have been better to keep Lindsay safe in a meaningless 4Q. But yeah the rest of our issues you highlighted on O are still there. Just got masked by game script and a truly awful team. We will certainly get a better test @KC and vs. HOU.
  6. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    ...
  7. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    Kinda ironic an Eagles fan would pose that Q. Since Doug Peterson is their HC and a successful OC b4 that.
  8. GDT: Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

    If the Texans have Watson upright then it’s problematic for us (which is no guarantee since they face Jax this weekend). HOU has the worst OL even worse than ARI or us in pass pro - 70 pressures in 6 games (while the 2nd worst is at 45 - dear lord). They also now have 2 decent WR’s in Keke Coutee in the slot and Will Fuller so it’s no longer Nuk or bust there. JAX will likely hammer them at home but if their 3 WR are healthy and Watson’s still standing very different O we are facing then. Unlike ARI the HOU pass game is thriving despite horrific OL play. So yeah it’s possible. Re: @KC I agree Reid will be far more prepared for us now. And that extra half-beat the OL loses in pass pro really matters at Arrowhead.
  9. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    Side note #2 - I suspect ARI wins vs. SF week #8, given the sudden post-firing bump, and 10 days to prepare for SF. A big positive sign was that the ARI D didn't give up (crazy idea to say, but remember ARI O gave up 14 pts on pick-6's, and gave DEN 2 drives inside their own 20, which led to 10 more points, and again, were on the field for 35+ minutes - so 21 pts to the D actually could have been way worse, you tip your cap to DEN D for that Sanders TD pass play, very creative).
  10. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    BTW, if the Cards beat SF next week - watch what the players will say: 1. Simplified the scheme, less thinking pre-snap, more time acting, not reacting. 2. Easier for players to make first reads and go. 3. More diversity in types of plays 4. Way more DJ outside and as a pass catcher (DUH). You see those lines, it's not like I'm Nostradamus - it's exactly what DEN players said last year after he was canned.
  11. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    His one long run of success as an OC - Peyton Manning was the QB. His SD success years as a HC - Ken Whisenhunt was the OC (he's an awful HC, and his scheme may no longer fit the current model of play, but he was very successful as an OC). So yeah, I'm thinking he rode the coat-tails of much smarter guys for the successful years on his CV.
  12. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    Dude, I think you have it the other way around. Bradford was more than OK in MIN last year, his knee did him in. And Rosen isn't the problem other than being a rookie behind a terrible OL and a scheme which leaves him no time to make adjustments, and a short week to prep for a D that while vulnerable in many areas, is a terror in pass rush (which masked all of our other weaknesses quite neatly last night). Believe me, you will be happy you have Rosen. You will be even happier when McCoy is gone. It's no coincidence that DEN players roundly slammed the scheme after he was fired. The same critiques ARI is making now, DEN made then. I'm kinda floored you can't see it, it's pretty obvious as an outsider where the problem lies between the OC & QB. Now, you need 3 real OL's to add to Pugh and Cole (who will be better), too. But let's be clear, McCoy is about 100x more the problem than your QB's.
  13. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    BTW, exactly the same stuff that DEN players were saying last year - scheme was way too verbose, took too long to get plays in, while the scheme itself was incredibly unimaginative. Literally every play you watch, you will see Rosen having to check this mega-list, and the clock is inside 20 secs before the players are ready to break huddle. Then Rosen has to try and make at-the-line reads with less than 12 secs left. And maybe 3 outside runs, and only 1-2 targets for DJ as a pass-catcher. But about 10+ for Chad freaking Williams. SMH, McCoy is an abomination as an OC. May he never be on the sidelines of an NFL, or even CFB team, again.
  14. GDT: Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

    Well, we probably helped ARI out too - that game got OC McCoy fired. May he never run a NFL O ever again. That probably helps DJ and ARI WR fantasy owners out about 100-fold. Too bad it got Seals-Jones killed, and nearly Rosen in the process.
  15. Cards fire OC Mike McCoy

    That's the problem when a team hires a HC late that's not an O guru - they had nothing but horrible choices - retreads, or unproven guys. I'd rather go unproven, but obv. I have little to lose. This will really help Rosen's development simply by not having McCoy's complete lack of imagination responsible for play calling. So many times last night, plays were coming in with less than 20 secs left to the huddle, leaving no time for adjustments. And WAY too many runs up the middle for David Johnson - no touches in space, and no pass catching. David Johnson is probably the most thankful guy in ARI today...followed by his fantasy owners.
  16. Just 3 games into a contract extension.... On the glass half-full side for the Titans, he didn't wait until half-time.
  17. GDT: Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

    Telling stat - rookie QB’s are 4-12 on a short week with TNF. The rookie year is a learning year but then give them only 3 days to prep and it often goes badly. Having said that they need to upgrade the OL for his long term ceiling to be realized. G Pugh and C AJ Cole are 2 guys to keep. Everyone else needs to be upgraded there. But yes the talent is there. Just when you are on a bad OC and bad OL you are going to put up stinkers esp in the rookie year. At least they will be replacing OC McCoy shortly. That was one brutal decision - the problem when you aren’t seen as a prime destination (remember IND and ARI HC’s were the last to be hired).
  18. Who’s the worst team in football?

    Unlike 2017, no team is trying to put an 0-16 season in the books. Stuff like that happens, especially when a team has to shrink the O post-injury like SF did with JimmyG-to-Beathard that week.
  19. GDT: Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

    Huge break for us if the above is true, that was a scary injury. A grade 2 MCL is a 3-4 week injury, that timeline is way too optimistic (unless it's a grade I MCL) FWIW, but really, it's more about the long-term. Just glad if it's not an ACL injury, that was definitely the risk with the head-on impact. Disclaimer - I don't know if they'd have the MRI this early, and so an ACL injury can be missed - I'd be more reassured if that's still the diagnosis after they get back home tomorrow (as I'd imagine they will be doing a MRI then, the clinical test can miss torn ACL's, and being able to walk post-injury on same day doesn't exclude it either).
  20. When VJ gets fired

    Let's face it, the HC/OC we hire is also going to be directly tied to whatever QB we hitch our wagon to (Kelly, 2019 rookie, 2020 rookie if we piecemeal another year <ugh, but 2019 draft is also iffy at the top, and Elway will be hard-pressed to not go early if Kelly isn't the guy>). It's really hard to justify a D-minded HC when any OC we tie our wagon to will likely be ready to be elevated to HC if they are successful here. It's no coincidence CHI hired Matt Nagy to bring Trubisky along, and CLE brought in Todd Haley (who seems like the guy who will succeed Hue Jackson), while NYG brought in Fritz Shurmur for their 2019 guy. Meanwhile, NYJ has Todd Bowles on the hot seat, and no doubt they will look to an O-minded HC with Darnold next year if he doesn't survive. It's also what made ARI's hire of Mike McCoy so ugly - it seemed so uninspired from the get-go. And that's certainly worked out exactly as most ppl thought it would go (McCoy seems like the next OC to go). The guy who's going to get a TON of run is Todd Monken. He's turned that TB O around, after years of Dirk Koetter becoming uber-conservative (not like he was in his ATL OC days). Now, Koetter is on the hot seat, and I could see Tampa promoting Monken to HC, because he's done an amazing job with that O. On the flip side, the guy who looks overmatched as OC is Matt Lafleur - who spent the last 2 years with Shanny in ATL, then McVay in LA. But he hasn't been able to bring anything to make Mariota even decent. That hire I whiffed on, I was really high on TEN moving up in O abilities.
  21. ThuNF Week 7: DEN @ ARI GameDay Thread

    Interesting stat I came across - rookie QB's are 4-12 when playing TNF and not off bye (so short week). Didn't realize it was that bad, but will have to remember that if I ever bet on TNF lol.
  22. GDT: Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

    I hear you, just that's the Q coming out (Rosen was awful tonight, I don't know if he's going to work out...sheesh). If we were this impatient in Elway's era, he'd have been labelled a complete bust (god those were some ugly games way back when lol). Obviously Rosen's no Elway, but it's crazy how impatient ppl are for rookie QB's.
  23. ThuNF Week 7: DEN @ ARI GameDay Thread

    Re: Von as DPOY - listen, I love the guy. And he absolutely deserves to win at least one DPOY. But if it goes to Donald or Mack, I will have zero objections. And it won't be robbery. Maybe Von wins, maybe he doesn't. But I won't sweat about it either way. It doesn't change his status as the elite talent of his generation, along with Mack, at EDGE. Sometimes there can be 2 (Donald is also elite generational level with Watt, but obv. different positions).
  24. ThuNF Week 7: DEN @ ARI GameDay Thread

    So....OU on days to Mike McCoy firing? Has to be Sun AM, Schefter/Rapsheet "leak" right?
  25. GDT: Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

    We all have our ways of coping. Some drink, some kick the dog, some just think out loud. But if you think that whether VJ is around or not doesn't influence Kelly's ETA, we'll just agree to disagree. The sooner VJ is gone, the better. Whether Kelly is our guy or not in 2019 is the most important Q we can answer this year. This was a missed chance to get closer to the next step to finding out, that's all. But, life goes on. All good.
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