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Everything posted by Broncofan

  1. Chiefs defense- is there an elixir?

    I'd disagree that the Chiefs D is actually good - they're built to be a frontrunner D and capitalize on teams that have to play catchup. Their pass rush is very good, and Chris Jones is an emerging interior force. It's unfortunate that Eric Berry has missed time, no doubt. And don't get me wrong - I like Speaks a lot, love Jones, and think they've got some interesting young talent emerging. But the CB's still give up a lot of chunk plays, and they don't often come up with critical stops on 3rd down - if the pressure doesn't get there, they don't make a lot of stops on their secondary's talent (although ironically the FS who's replaced Berry is the one that impresses me the most - Eric Murray). Kendall Fuller has really struggled, which surprised me. And most importantly...they're awful against the run. That's a formula where KC is going to struggle a lot vs. evenly matched teams. Thing is, there aren't a lot of teams that can match KC's O output, well, at least their output pre-Hunt drama (and yes, I realize KC put up 40+ on OAK..but I think we know OAK's D is a bottom-5 D). They do give up a lot of yards because of gamescript...but they also have very real vulnerabilities. The real Q is can they play well if behind, or even up. I realize it was a road game, but the part that worried me about KC's D vs. LAR - Gurley was a decoy from the time his ankle got rolled up on...and LAR still scored a ton on them. That's worrisome. The D can make big plays, especially when they are ahead. A lot of D's are built that way, though, and are far less effective once that lead vanishes. Maybe the KC O doesn't let that happen too often, but that's also more likely as we get to the playoffs. I guess we'll find out then.
  2. Best Landing Spots for Kareem Hunt?

    Or they could use AP, Guice & K-Hunt. That trio would be un-beat-able.
  3. Best Landing Spots for Kareem Hunt?

    FWIW, if a team signs him to a 1-year deal, they own his RFA rights for the next year, with only 2 years of service time. And if he was suspended for more than 10 games in 2019, his service time wouldn't accrue, and he'd still be on that 1st year of the 1-year deal in 2020, and they'd still own his RFA rights in 2021. So really, it's going to be almost no push for a team to offer a 2-year deal, at least in terms of guaranteed $. Normally, a player like K-Hunt would also be nuts to sacrifice his RFA rights for a year 4 deal of minimum salary, too. But obviously, this isn't a normal situation.
  4. Random Thoughts

    Yeah speed is a must in today’s NFL. As much as it was a free shot to find an ILB cheap, Alexander Johnson might not work out because he is weakest in that area. He did make it back to the PS FWIW, so still a shot there, but I do admit I worry looking at his skill profile, how it translates to today's NFL. The problem with Jones is he’s got great chase instincts and speed those are the skills to excel on ST. His instincts for the ball, reading run vs. pass, stack/shedding blocks and pass cover footwork / technique are all key to ILB success on D. And obviously a big unknown with him. It’s too bad we didn’t have a Jones toolset and Jewell skill set. That’s an All Pro combo (where the lack of speed is the one weakness that could limit Jewell’s ceiling but he's so good in all other facets, I'm confident he will succeed - just may never be an elite player - which for a Rd4 pick, is still a fine result).
  5. Kareem Hunt clears waivers, is officially a Free Agent

    Let’s be really clear - the NFL and KC let the ball drop in a huge way here. Full link: https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/article222623665.html We now know: 1. NFL & KC supposedly had an open investigation since Feb. 2. We can now confirm from the CLE PD that neither the NFL nor KC made a formal request to see the video. None. They say they had a verbal conversation now...lol. 3. As inflammatory as the video appears the facts and all parties agree this isn’t DV. So it doesn’t carry near the same risks inherent with DV. 4. KC and the NFL basically are going hyper-extreme because of both their past history - KC in saying they vetted Tyreek Hill with all due diligence and the NFL saying they would take every step to leave no stone unturned. When we now know they didn’t go far at all. Add it up - because the CBA allows it, the NFL are going to go hard on K-Hunt to deflect attention from the above points. After the stance the NFL took with Zeke and Ray Rice - they will make an example of K-Hunt to cover up that they basically turned their back on due diligence when they said “never again” after doing it with Ray Rice. And no doubt the league made that clear to all the GM’s. When we look at how lax the NFL and KC were - they’ve painted themselves where a cut was the only way for KC to save face on their part. Now the NFL is likely going 8+ games or more on K-Hunt using 2 very iffy episodes (January one only thing you know is he was there; other former player is the guy fingered). I say all the above not owning K-Hunt in fantasy and happy he’s off the KC team as a DEN fan. But it’s ironic that the cover up of the NFL’s complete lack of diligence here is going to translate into a much harsher penalty than if they had reviewed the video and issued a penalty this past spring (and IMO he’d likely be still a Chief).
  6. Random Thoughts

    Dude is a ST ace so that will justify his roster spot alone. Would need several games to see how it translates to D though, CIN isn’t a great test (OMG that was a decimated OL with zero discipline so many penalties). As we saw from guys like Latimer the ST skills aren’t necessarily transferable. The agility and quickness though can’t hurt.
  7. Lamar vs Flacco

    If BAL wants to win vs. KC - they actually need to keep Lamar in there. The way to beat KC is to keep their O off the field, and wear their D out with the run. That's a lot more unpredictable with their RPO with Lamar as the QB. Worst-case Flacco is ready to step in if Lamar falters. The hard part is that the Arrowhead noise and road experience is really something else. Could easily see Lamar falter hard there. But on the flip side, if they go with Flacco alone, KC can defend BAL's O a lot more conventionally. And the chance of wearing out the KC D and keeping the O off the field is significantly less - KC can definitely be beat in the air, but they are also an opportunistic D, harder to capitalize on that if it's the Lamar/Edwards RPO show. Frankly, if Flacco is OK, they should think about using him as a Lamar like weapon, and flip the script. And have him ready if Lamar isn't ready for the bright lights of an Arrowhead road game. But that should be plan B. Long-term though, this is Lamar's show. He's just touching the surface on his QB abilities, as he really has the placement/anticipation & accuracy from his college days. What he lacks is read progression and D recognition, and just being used to the NFL game speed - which is now a trial by fire, and why TO's like his fumble are going to happen. But the future's bright - unlike RG3 in the past, he's not a just a runner who plays QB long-term - there's an actual throwing QB in there, just needs time.
  8. Dwayne Haskins

    Jeff Fisher says hold my beer.
  9. AFC vs NFC

    I'd still say NFC by a clear margin overall at the top end. The top 3 teams in the NFC are just tough to beat IMO overall except vs. each other. KC is the one team that can hang with them with their O, but their D is so very bad (I mean, teams like OAK & ARI can score 21+ pts on them, and before someone points to LAR, they did that with Gurley as a decoy most of the game).... The difference is that the middle-tier, the AFC is catching up, though.
  10. Under The Radar Breakout Years

    Big credit has to go to your OL coach. We're experiencing the same thing with our interior OL decimated by injury and 2 backup G's and G McGovern switching to C - and our interior OL's play actually improving since the switch happened. Feiler does get props though - same goes for Billy Turner on our end, which is kind of surprising, because unlike Feiler, Turner's played a fair bit before, and looked awful. But that's a result of coaching IMO.
  11. Dwayne Haskins

    So...with Day taking over for Meyer - any effect on Haskins’ chances of staying / leaving? If it was anyone but Day Is say he’s gone for sure but that move does seem like a fairly seamless transition.
  12. Broncos @ Bengals GDT

    FWIW IMO the game where we match up the worst besides LAC is CLE - fierce pass rush, talented skill players and a secondary that’s got an emerging CB in Ward. And while Baker isn’t quite ready to be crowned yet as elite, he clearly should be a good QB (but his recent success before Week 13’s struggles was propped up by facing 3 bottom 5 pass D’s, 2 at home and that toothless CIN D) - just like his struggles at HOU aren’t a reflection of his present level, either, just the lumps rookies face, even on good teams with bright futures. Their T’s are hurting though which helps us immensely and playing at home makes that even harder. So we will likely be favored and rightfully so. But if there was a matchup that’s not in our corner CLE definitely fits the bill. That’s a much different team without Hue Jackson at the top.
  13. Kareem Hunt clears waivers, is officially a Free Agent

    Yeah, it's a double jeopardy situation - but this isn't the law, it's the NFL CBA, so it gets to stick (SMH). In theory the NFLPA should fight this tooth and nail, but they've got so many other priorities, this won't be high on their list, given the bad PR optics. But it's just bad practice to be able to be dinged 2x for the same act...but the NFLPA is just inept as a player's union altogether. So this is par for the course. The "only" solace for K-Hunt is this year will still toll his service time forward so he's got 2 years under his belt But to qualify for pension & medical, he's got to get 4 years. And he'll need to play at least 6 games (or be on the 53-man roster for 6+ games) next year for the service time to toll forward. It's very possible if he ever got more than 10 games (I'm talking theoretical) - that a team would sign him for a prorated min. wage contract, and then get him for his ERFA and RFA years in 2020-2021. Remember, service time counts - so there is actually very little way that K-Hunt will suddenly benefit financially - the only way it happens is if he's suspended less than 10+ games (seems possible), AND a team offers him a multi-year deal that's higher than the RFA tender year 3 1st/2nd round (not as likely). More than likely, he'll get a 1-year prove-it deal that might break even (it would have to be 2x as much as reg. 3rd year ERFA salary to make up for the lost games), and then get a 1st/2nd round tender, which he'd have received anyways. At best, K-Hunt can hope to break even - but given how radioactive he is right now, there's no jackpot that's coming sooner, because service time matters (as I mentioned in the other thread, the only reason why we never see this is because pretty much any valuable UFA already has 4+ years of service time in the books - which @Forge knows, since I was posting to him earlier, but bears repeating in this thread).
  14. MNF - Philly v Washington GDT

    The flip side - if PHI beats DAL & WAS - they are 5-1 in the division, while DAL is 4-2 (and they are 1-1 against each other). They would be both 7-6 headed into the last 3 weeks - but then PHI would own the tiebreaker (since they would be 1-1 vs. each other). DAL, meanwhile, gets @IND, TAM & @NYG Weeks 15-17. DAL wins out, it forces PHI to win out, and yeah, doubtful with that schedule and LAR playing for HFA at home. BUT, if DAL drops a game @IND or against TAM - then all bets are off. And before you dismiss either possibility - TAM just beat CAR, and they certainly have the weapons to beat any team (and I actually think they will give NO everything they can handle this week - the D suddenly has found some identity, and Bad Jameis has gone away...how long, who knows, but when bad Jameis doesn't show up, that's a team that suddenly works). Really, PHI just has to take it 1 game at a time. Beat DAL, and then they have to match DAL, that's it - they win the tiebreaker. Lose to DAL, though, and it's over, barring an epic collapse (given DAL would own the tiebreaker and a 2-game lead with 3 to go). So, really, like tonight, PHI is playing for their season next week @DAL. After that, if they win, then all bets are off - they may not be the favorite then, but it's not nearly as narrow needle they have to thread. And keep in mind as Division winner, they'd get 1 home game, too. It's kind of crazy with how decimated their secondary is, and how poorly they've played, but a W next week, and PHI is very much alive. But it's definitely do-or-die next week, no doubt about it.
  15. MNF - Philly v Washington GDT

    Kinda fitting that Sanchez fumbles and recovered with his butt. Career full circle.
  16. Best Landing Spots for Kareem Hunt?

    Service time still applies. A team that signs him to a 1-year deal would then get him at RFA rates for his 4th year. If they sign him to a 2-year deal with non guaranteed year 2 $ he could make more than a 1st/2nd round tender. But that would have to be the mechanism. Almost every UFA has 4+ service time years. Why this doesn’t come up.
  17. When VJ gets fired

    1. Unclear but no longer a lock he’s gone. 2. Playoffs and he’s back. 9-7 but no playoffs unclear. 8-8 or worse I’d imagine it’s curtains. 3. There are no Kareem Hunts in the room. You’re safe.
  18. If LAC gets to play more prime time games and he can play as well as he just did, I think that sentiment will come around on James (I happen to agree he's the top DROY). But I mean, LVE has had 2 showcase games on national TV, and enjoys a bigger fanbase and media coverage. Roquan Smith is the Mike on the #1 D (yes, he's got a lot of help around him). Darius Leonard is a huge reason for IND no longer being a pushover on D (but same small market issues). Frankly, my own fanbase would howl if Bradley Chubb doesn't get consideration (even though I'd be the first to admit that playing with Von Miller tends to throw a lot less attention your way). Re: King, his slot play has been just meh compared to last year - but as you said, he's a ST lethal weapon. And there's really no good reason for his 2nd year mini-slump at the slot. So I'd expect that will bounce back. Re: RB, let's not go overboard - it's going to be the MG3 show when he's healthy. I think what this means more is that it's not going to be the Ekeler show while MG3 is out. Which TBH is probably best - Ekeler is a capable inside runner, but he's a lethal weapon in space, and it sure looked like running inside early took away some of his juice. Let Jackson do the between-tackles stuff and tough yards, and get Ekeler in there for space plays (but Ekeler can run inside whenever needed, so it's not completely giving away what LAC is doing).
  19. AFC Playoffs: Who gets the 6th seed

    I say this as someone who took a while, but come Draft Day, felt it was definitely worth taking Lamar in late Rd1 as a developmental QB, and still believe his chances of working out are excellent. But he's definitely going to hit an adjustment phase. The only Q is when. OAK, CIN (especially with no Vigil then and Lawson/Brown on IR, and their banged up secondary) and ATL (although it helped to get Deion Jones back, they're decimated with their injuries) aren't exactly a gauntlet of D's to face. The same 3-game stretch Baker Mayfield enjoyed against bottom-8 pass D's had everyone ready to crown him as the next elite QB. He's still got a bright future, but a road test against a good D like HOU showed the issues that remain (just as we shouldn't get too high when SSS success occurs, no need to get too low, either, when they struggle). The same no doubt will happen to Lamar - I don't think KC will pose that test, however. The HFA and noise at Arrowhead could induce mistakes, but that's a bad, bad D he's facing. Worse, they can't really stop the run, which he and Edwards/co. can exploit mercilessly. If the Chargers had Liuget & Perryman, for sure I'd see them as the test. Outside of CLE's D, I do think the schedule is pretty soft for Lamar (issues more being on the road for KC/LAC). As it is, I do think TAM, LAC & CLE are all games they could lose. That D is good enough provided their pass rush holds up, though, it could still get them to 3-1 pretty easily. There just won't be any gimme games for sure.
  20. Yeah the thing is we all think it can never get worse. It doesn’t mean that we should let the status quo hold but history has always shown it can ALWAYS be worse. Refs, QB’s, coaches (although it might be tough to get any worse than Jeff Fisher).
  21. But the gig is such a magnet for groupies, right? I mean, right up there with off hours club DJ, right?
  22. Guys - there’s basically 1 full time paid official per crew most weeks. We are still a LONG ways away from full time officials. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000839763/article/nfl-hires-21-fulltime-game-officials-for-2017-season
  23. Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers GDT

    Btw some good news - CHJ’s fracture is apparently a chip fracture and not a break. If it was a break it’s 6-8 weeks recovery. With a chip 4+ is possible. It probably still keeps him out of the RoS but long term there’s pretty much zero risk. Best case scenario.
  24. AFC Playoffs: Who gets the 6th seed

    I think so too - everyone will point to how we should have beat HOU at home - but a road game is a totally different animal. And they had basically 1 WR that game, and a banged up Watson just recovering, and 2 CB's out who are now back. At Mile High, both the altitude and half-beat the OL loses with the noise when we are on D are gone - and our OL loses that half-beat vs. their pass rush @HOU. Then factor in that Chris Harris Jr. won't be there. Add it up, it would likely be a slaughter. Frankly, although a lot of the familiarity would be there, the Colts would likely pose the biggest threats to the Texans - Luck knows that D well, Hilton & Ebron give them a ton of problems, and that OL protects him so well and can establish a run game. Meanwhile, IND's D isn't great, but with ILB Leonard and S Malik Hooker, that's the kind of playmaker who can swing a game. And Leonard makes a good spy vs. Watson. It's more a matter of the Colts getting there. Losing to JAX really hurt their chances - not impossible, but the path just got a LOT harder.
  25. AFC Playoffs: Who gets the 6th seed

    Winning vs. PIT/LAC was a combination of 3 factors: 1. TO's - we were a +6 and no TO's on our end. And not just TO's that led to points - took points off the board - LAC was driving for a FG/TD at our 25 that would have sealed the game already up 10 pts - and instead a Von Miller pick returned it to their 20. TD later, 1-score game instead of being up 2-3 scores. Same deal with Conner's fumble up 7, and that incredible play by Will Parks on TE Grimble, forcing a fumble out of EZ instead of a TD or a 1st and goal at the 1. 2. Gamecalling - in the LAC game, for some reason, the Chargers decided to call pass on 3rd down, even though we had no TO's, and would have pinned them inside their 20. Instead, bubble screen that Rivers blew by throwing it a the WR's feet. 3. Youth - because we're young, we also finish games strong. I think it explains a lot of our late-game drama, and it's a credit to the team's character in the core that gives DEN fans the greatest amount of hope long-term. We do a lot of things right - we can run the ball, and our pass rush is incredible. Our run D is an enigma, because we let 2 200+ yard rushers...and then stuff teams on other games. The big difference is unlike 2016-17, our core of best players besides Von Miller are our young guys - Elway finally went away from physical-tool / no-skill guys in Day 1-2 for the draft this year, and it's produced huge dividends. And we obviously hit the jackpot in the UDFA pool with Lindsay (something Elway does regularly, one strength amid his very obvious draft Day 1-2 prior flaws and inability to select/develop future QB's). We might have a starting G from 2017's UDFA pool in Elijah Wilkinson, and we have another UDFA darling Jeff Holland that we were lucky enough to stash on the PS, but he's active now, and that should help when we lose our 2 depth EDGE's to FA. But we also have a ton of weaknesses - first and foremost, our QB Keenum really still sucks. He's just been limited from making mistakes the last 3 games. Basically, he's been put in caretaker mode. As long as we are ahead, tied, or only within 1 score, it works. Anything more, though, and we're likely dead in the water, barring a gift play sequence that LAC gave us in that 4Q. Secondly, our pass pro has been suspect, which compounds Keenum's issues - although, to be fair, we've been a lot better the last 3 games (CIN wasn't really a test, given they didn't have 2 of their best pass rushers, and I doubt SF will pose much of one, either). The Jets and Ravens absolutely destroyed our OL in pass pro. What hurt was that the pass rushers on BAL/NYJ weren't particularly good (Suggs is still good, but not great, no knock against him, most guys his age would be retired). We did well vs. LAC in Bosa's 1st game back, so that's a surprise to say the least, but rust could have explained it (but even then, it's hard to discount 3 games of increased success). On D, we are incredibly vulnerable to the pass game. It used to be just TE/RB, with our ILB's, but now the 2nd/3rd WR's can make hay. And that's about to get worse with Chris Harris Jr. with an IR injury (broken fibula). Basically, we are toastable everywhere. Now, a great pass rush can sometimes mask that, and mask it very well - PHI 2017 wasn't as bad as we might now be, but their elite front 7 play helped them win a SB, so it can be done. I'm not even close to suggesting we are even legit-contender level, I've said all along we're not (and taken a fair amount of flak for it in the home forum lol). But against teams like SF & OAK, the pass rush's ability to get to the QB may mask our secondary's complete vulnerability. Against good teams with either good OL's, or good to great QB's, though - barring a ridiculous TO margin win like vs. PIT/LAC, we're sunk. Frankly, whoever is the 3 seed, if they have a good OL and aren't complete sieves vs. the run game, they should be hoping we make it. On the road, against a team that is far worse than us, we've won 2 games. I'd think we should be able to repeat that vs. SF but only because they have JAG at QB. We face @SF, CLE, @OAK and LAC in a game that LAC may not be playing for much - so I'd say we probably have a 50-50 shot to make it by going 3-1 or better - but going 1-3 or 2-2 would NOT surprise me in the least, either. Especially against CLE, whose OL play and pass rush/D are exactly the problems we have trouble with (HFA being a big equalizer always). But in the very unlikely event we sneak into the playoffs, against pretty much most 3 seeds on the road, we'd be roadkill. So not making it in, well, wouldn't bother me in the least, as I'm all about long-term and legit contention first & foremost.