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Broncofan

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Everything posted by Broncofan

  1. TNF GDT: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

    Pack fans have to be nervous if the O doesn’t score. They’ve been dominating and yet only up 4. That missed 3rd down read by ESB and 3 key penalties (DPI, KO iffy hold call and that ESB block in back) are only reasons it’s not a 14+ pt lead. Now SEA gets another chance. Wow.
  2. And now this news for Week 14... Hard to blame the NFL - it was going to be SEA @ SF week 13 and PIT@OAK week 14.
  3. How many wins will it take for the Chargers...

    Meh it’s not like the plays are that much of a secret. Going pass on 1st down isn’t giving away a lot of info teams can glean future game plans off. It’s not like there are 5+ Philly special type plays waiting to be unleashed.
  4. How many wins will it take for the Chargers...

    Yeah I’m not down on Lynn at all. I just want him to stay aggressive. Too many teams HC’s lose their edge over time. If you have a good unit you believe in them. Playing kill-the-clock only makes sense if the odds are so much in your favor only mistakes can bring a team back. Hopefully we see that aggression of going for it on 4th and short or letting the O win games (rather than McCoy’s don’t lose play calling that lost so many games they should have won) continue.
  5. Do the Eagles win the Super Bowl last year with Wentz?

    Given how badly Foles has played this year and pretty much every year except the 1st year Chip Kelly's novel O baffled D's, I'm going with "Doug Pederson would have been fine with any QB that day".
  6. How many wins will it take for the Chargers...

    After a really rough first couple of years, Telesco has really developed a good scouting department - the last 3 drafts (while it's early, 2018 returns are already paying off with James, that was a total gift for him to drop that far) have been stellar. Plus, getting rid of McCoy as HC and putting in even an average HC would have been a plus alone, but Lynn seems to get it. Just avoid having Lynn playing it too safe in-game (didn't like what he did in SEA going run-run-pass early in the 4Q after they were killing the SEA D, and their clock management vs. TEN was pretty suspect, after a very strong first 8 games), and hopefully Badgley can stop giving away points that Sturgis was really good at doing, and you've got something there this year, provided Bosa comes back. Next year, with Henry and Perryman back in the fold, man, that's a powerhouse roster (doubt Verrett returns, too much $ given his risk).
  7. MNF WK 11 Chiefs at Rams NOT IN Mexico City

    FWIW, this move to LA to me cements the Over....in case that matters to some of us.
  8. How many wins will it take for the Chargers...

    The steps to success: 1. Have Spanos family sell the team. 2. Move back to San Diego. 3. NFL fronts the stadium cost 50/50 with new owner. San Diego has the 2nd biggest available market, next to San Antonio. Until then, it's going to be hard for the Chargers to have a big fanbase. Go back to SD, however, without the Spanos family....and you've got a shot. Obviously I'm talking big-picture, not just FF lol.
  9. Who gets the top two seeds in AFC

    Blitzing Brady hasn't been the right idea in the past - it's the ability to get pressure with only 4 guys, and pressure inside even more so. Teams that can do that have always given Brady the most trouble.
  10. So, Who Has a Good Defense This Year?

    My beef with raw stats - doesn't account for opponents, or game flow (i.e. if you are up 3-4 scores, who cares if you give up a TD late). CHI's D, given who they have faced compared to the AFCS schedule, there's just no comparison. I say that with nothing but respect for TEN & HOU's D. But man it's not that close, it's CHI and no one else right now. Keep in mind that pass pressure rating of 32% is with 3 games without Mack (or pretty much without, in that NE game he got hurt early).
  11. Le'Veon Bell -Farewell Miami

    Yeah, there's no argument there. To commit to return 2x, and then back out, it's a bad look. I just think it's overblown how ppl are saying teams are going to stay away. Bell clearly wants the security and the $. Frankly, almost every player gets that. And every FO gets that, too. A team that provides that won't need to worry about his motivation. I don't think PIT's offer esp. this year was in good faith, and they own that. But I don't think they deserved the treatment they got from Week 2 onwards, either. It seems like the moral of the story is don't let a relationship get as broken as it did between Bell and PIT this year. And on that, both sides are hardly blameless here. Even the NFLPA isn't blameless - for their reps to call out Bell literally sabotaged all of their own efforts. And the fact they couldn't get the ruling on Bell's 3rd year tag status until the last week before the Nov. 13 deadline, it calls into question both the NFLPA & Bell's agent's true qualifications here. That should have been stuff they knew about months ago - and presented to PIT as the worst case option. Not the way it went down this past week.
  12. Random Thoughts

    I'd be all for that simply because then hope could be sold for 2019, and we'd still be free to hit 2020's draft class hard if it didn't work out. But, the 2 flies in the ointment for that scenario: 1. Will Gruden trade Carr in-division for a 3rd? I don't know that he's going to find a buyer who beats an early 3rd...but remember, he traded Mack to CHI supposedly to keep Mack in the NFC, so that might happen to us. 2. Will Elway commit to Carr at 19.9M and then cut Keenum to save 11M, but still end up committing 30M to DEN's 2019 salary? That's a huge Q mark for me. Personally, if it costs us 9M more to go this route (than the status quo with keeping Keenum at 21M and then going Rd1 early QB) to avoid a 2019 reach AND that allows us to hit 2020's QB class hard, then I'll stomach that anyday. Sucks for us short-term, but probably ensures our long-term health. But while I might think that way, I don't believe that Elway would. Given the above, I'd think a Tanny in FA and cut-Keenum scenario as more palatable to Elway - or better yet, get Tannenbaum to take that 21M contract for Keenum and we save 7M more, then we can do the trade for Carr/sign Tanny or even Bridgewater (but only a truly moronic GM would take Keenum in trade right now). But with 10M dead money and no trade likely, that's a big albatross on our QB spending in Elway's eyes. What we can't have though is the status quo. It's just a Q of what change Elway makes for 2019.
  13. Rookies of the year

    Yeah I should have been clearer - he's the backbone of their run D now. They still have a huge problem defending the pass, both with needing more pass rush and better CB's. He can't really take the blame there though. When he's around though, they are so tough to run against - which losing Hankins, I wasn't expecting.
  14. Where will Le'Veon Bell sign in the offseason?

    Let's face it, you need OL upgrade, CB upgrade, and keeping Clowney and Mathieu are crucial. You will have lots of room still left, but as you said, Watson's going to break the bank. This is the time to get an impact RB - but Ingram & Coleman will also cost half of what Bell can bring. More importantly, I don't think HOU will get into a bidding war with the highest bidder. It's doesn't seem like McNair's style AFAIK, no? And I do think there will be several interested teams. I posted this on the News thread - I don't think it's nearly as cut and dried as people are making it to be that teams are worried about Bell. This is from a locker room that has no invested interest other than as outside observers....if that's how they feel, guess how FO's who aren't involved might feel, too.
  15. Given how Cox is the biggest mismatch problem, I don't think moving the G's out to T is the answer. I'd guess either it's Bushrod at LT with more help, or Bushrod at RT and Ramczyk at LT this week. Just an outsider's view, but I'd imagine keeping the interior unit's play at an elite level is most important given what Cox can do.
  16. Le'Veon Bell -Farewell Miami

    Just so it's a little more balanced - DEN obviously has no dog in this show, interesting take...
  17. Random Thoughts

    Yeah, trust me, I agree with your assessment. I have no idea what Gruden is smoking re: 1st. Just keep in mind that Keenum got 36M/2. Bradford got 20M/1 (of which they got out of 4M by cutting him early). So Carr & even Winston's 20M is the going rate for average, fill-in starting QB's. I know, I know - ridiculous. But it's honestly the market now. That's why I don't see Tanny coming here at starter rates....maybe we could trade Keenum to MIA for a 6th and get 7M more off the books, then suddenly we can pay 18M to Tanny....and GM Tannenbaum might be dumb enough to bite lol. But that's a serious pipe dream (although we almost had RT Juwan James for CJ Anderson this past offseason, dammit). And to be clear - I would love it if we got rid of Keenum & got Tannehill on a 1-year deal. Or got Carr without giving up anything of significance except paying the $. Because then we could skip the 2019 draft class Rd1-2, and only take a dart throw later - and justify it to the fanbase. And then hit the 2020 draft class hard if we still don't have any long-term answers. Tua, Fromm & Eason, even before we have other guys emerge? Anything that saves a Rd1 reach for 2019's class and allows us to still hit 2020's class early? Yes, please. EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. But Elway will not go into the 2019 season with only Keenum around. He's going to have to make a change, or draft a QB who is labelled as the 2020 "next one". When faced with that type of situation, I'd do backflips if we could simply swap out Keenum for Tannehill or Carr, no matter if it cost us 7--8M more (but better if we traded Keenum and saved 7M more, and in Carr's case, gave up no major draft capital, because dude looks like he could be irreparably damaged). The Q is do I think Elway would stomach spending 28-30M+ on QB (if we cut Keenum and take the 10M hit, and then spend 18-20M on a 1-year prove it deal with Tanny or 20M with Carr) or stick with Keenum at the 21M known cost, and no picks (for Carr) or uncertainty of FA (Tanny), when we have so many other needs to hit? That seems pretty iffy.
  18. Random Thoughts

    Re: Carr, his OAK contract is basically a series of 1-year prove-it 19M-20M deals from 2019 to 2021, with no dead money for any team acquiring him (OAK takes all the 7.5M dead money away from his prior bonus in 1 go). So I think a trade is coming - it's just a question of how much Gruden will ask for...and get. The talk of 1st round picks is ludicrous. We certainly shouldn't even dream of anything higher than a 3rd..and even then, scary. Agree Tanny's going to get a 1-year prove it-deal, but thinking it will be a 1/10M type-deal, that's backup money. Don't see backup money coming his way if he's the #2 or even #3 QB on the market. Then it becomes a Q to Elway of if he's willing to spend more at the position (Keenum is 21M/1-year basically, with 10M dead money without a trade).
  19. Random Thoughts

    Totally agreed - just that from that list, Tanny looks to be the #2 FA available. He's going to get a starter's job AND decent $ offered. We'd have to pretty much guarantee we're cutting Keenum (or find a sucker GM to trade, that's a pretty big stretch to find someone that dumb lol), and then offer 2nd-3rd FA-on-market $. One part I could see, but both? Seems very, very iffy.
  20. Where will Le'Veon Bell sign in the offseason?

    I think we know Bell's going to chase the $, and not the rings. For that reason, the simplest answer is most likely to be correct. Jets, jets, jets. They offered insane $ to Cousins, but unlike Cousins, Bell's going for the dead presidents this contract. Plus, NYJ is going to counter NYG who will have rookie QB / Barkley and say "how about Darnold/Bell". Too much of a fit all the way around, and we know the NYJ GM & ownership aren't afraid to throw insane $.
  21. Rookies of the year

    To be clear, rookies starting is a terribly misleading stat, because if the team is bad, you'll see more rookies starting. But, given CHI is actually a division leader, that has more worth. Just wouldn't use that as the argument. While Tru's selection will always be a hot topic, Pace has done an excellent job otherwise. Like I said earlier this summer, Miller is my favorite WR of the entire draft, and I think value-wise we'll see that play out as the years pass. Getting Roquan and Daniels look like hits as well. The reality though is by year 2, you see a draft's full impact. I will give props to IND, I thought Leonard was a horrible reach at Rd2, nope. Nelson was going to be a beast, but Braden Smith and Leonard have completely transformed the OL and front 7 for IND. Pace clearly is a GM with a plan. Much respect. TBH, I think Leonard is more deserving of DROY, but I think if LAC goes deep into the playoffs, and they somehow find a way to beat KC in Arrowhead and take the 1 seed, James is going to get so much love, he'll take the award. Either guy deserves it 100 percent - they've transformed both D's (before ppl say LAC was a good unit, they were just a good unit last year with Bosa around, and this year with no Bosa, they were a very meh unit, until James stepped his play).
  22. Broncos VS Texans GDT

    BTW, with another L - it's time for a new guy to put up the GDT. Doesn't have to be a big production.
  23. 2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

    The problem with the reach isn't just that it's a reach for talent - it's that Elway will then exclude himself from a much stronger 2020 class. I agree 100 percent Elway's in an awful spot. No Lynch (which we all knew was happening) and no Kelly.... it's going to really hard for Elway to sell hope without somebody there. A Rd3+ pick on a project would probably the smartest thing (as it wouldn't prevent us from hitting Rd1 2020 if that 2019 guy didn't show he was close to ready to take over), but even then it's a very iffy proposition in terms of appeasing the fanbase. Kelly really killed us. Even if he failed in 2019, just the ability to not reach out of desperation had a ton of value. Honestly, our best hope IMO given we are not likely going to pass NYG - we go 2-5 ROS or 1-6 and then pick in the top 7-8, high enough where elite non-QB talents are there (Bosa & Oliver are generational, but we have 5-6 other elite talents after them..sadly none at QB). And then we justify picking Rd2 or later for a QB. This draft has a ton of guys who are Rd2-3 guys, and while QB's get overdrafted, it's when the demand exceeds the supply - this year, there are probably only 3-4 teams who are desperate for QB's (NYG, OAK, us as the obvious 3, but add MIA if they walk away from Tannehill, covered in other thread lol). If we pick in the mid-teens, though, then the elite non-QB talents are gone. Then the decision to take a huge reach for QB becomes harder to resist. There are 7-8 Rd 2-3 types, so there will be someone of that type still there - the issue of course is Elway patient enough to do that, or does he zero in on "one guy" like he's done in the past? Before 2017, zero chance we'd see Elway be patient. But a big part of 2017's change in draft methodology (besides being skill-based over raw tools) had him waiting for value....does he do it again in 2018? EDIT: It's kinda funny and sad that the argument that Keenum could play better and justify us holding off on QBOTF hasn't been brought up. It's been that bad. SMH.
  24. Random Thoughts

    Yeah, Winston would be a candidate for sure - but from all reports, the team's likely going to give him the 5th year chance to prove himself. The way to be absolutely sure, though - if the team doesn't re-insert Winston as the starting QB once they are eliminated (and at 7 or 8 losses, there's no way to make the WC), then it's a sure sign they don't want to risk the injury guarantee that comes with the 5th year option. Winston would be far more expensive than Tanny, however. But if we hear that Winston's replacing Fitzmagic in the next week or 2, then it's because they are thinking 2019, and letting him prove himself for the 2019 option, we can probably take Winston off the FA board. That's going to be worth tracking. Re: Tanny, the issue is more where he fits in this year's FA class. As I see it, there are 8-9 teams that would look for QBOTF / QB upgrades at present: 1. DEN (duh) 2. NYG 3. MIA 4. JAX 5. OAK (the PR pieces on Carr are no coincidence, and obviously Gruden's statements can't be taken at face value, given he said no one was being traded....3 days before Cooper was traded lol). 6. TAM (if they don't stick with Winston) Then we have the teams who want to find a successor for QB, and soon, and who have no clear successor: 7. LAC 8. NO 9. NE Those last 3 won't necessarily be paying top $ for FA QB's, but they will likely either drive up the QB draft market, or at least ensure that guys find a job as a backup QB - where the going rate for a very good backup is 7-8M minimum, and as we saw from Nick Foles, where they need him for a few games, the market goes up to 10M+. Also, keep in mind a key backup like Josh McCown is likely headed to retirement. So, who's going to available? This is the QB FA market (let's assume Winston stays in Tampa, easier to do 1-for-1, and I'll explain why I suspect this is the case shortly): 1. Bridgewater (NO can't really afford to pay him top $ unless Brees is retiring - unless NO wins a SB or a terrible injury occurs, I don't think that's happening). 2. Tannehill 3. Carr (who OAK still owns the rights for, so we are more likely to see Gruden try to trade him than be a FA) 4. Bortles (if JAX is going to get someone else, he's got to go). 5. Fitzmagic (who after the hot start, has gone 2 TD's / 5 TO's after being re-inserted...back to his usual cycle). 6. The rest (Foles, Tyrod, Eli - all of who really showed why they were a big "no thanks"). I didn't include Brissett because IND has so much cap space, and they need to absolutely have a capable backup given Luck's injury history, and GM Pace knows this, so it's hard to see him leaving there. So when we look at the market, it's not just a matter of how many teams are out there - it's how desirable the candidates look. Now, if you include Winston, for sure he's way more desirable than anyone except Bridgewater - but TAM's GM likely realizes this as well, which is why it makes more sense for them to just renew his 5th year option and NOT have to commit to multiple years (which the top 2-3 FA's would require), and see if he's worth extending or not after 2019. Bridgewater is going to be the #1 FA target for sure....out of all those other guys, though, Tanny will look very appealing. So it's hard to see him being a bargain. If he was the 5th guy with 5-6 teams left, sure, absolute bargain possible. But it seems like he's the 2nd guy on the list with 5 teams (or 3rd guy with 6 teams, if Winston gets let go). The last 1-2 guys end up being bargains, the first 2-3, not so much. We saw that last year with Keenum & Bradford as the #2 / #3 guys signed. And the kicker? Any team who takes anyone but Bridgewater, they're probably still thinking long-term. So that also doesn't dilute the QB demand in the draft. To be honest, that's probably a good thing in terms of Rd1, since it will hopefully help us avoid a bad, bad reach for QB Rd1. I do think we'll see LAC, NO and NE all dive in Day 2 for their project (it's a horrible year to find a franchise QB with an early pick, but a project you can be patient with, and also throw away in 1-2 years and look again, there are way more intriguing guys in that mold this year).
  25. Random Thoughts

    In a vacuum he’d be a decent stopgap option. Here’s the problem - we have sunk 21M into Keenum for 2019 and 10M dead money. Could we sign Tanny for 11M or less and not add to our QB budget with a Keenum cut? Bradford was the one worse FA signing (but only 1 year) that cost ARI 16M. The other stopgaps signed for 10M or less. The issue is in 2018 there were 6 QB FA’s who could stopgap (and 1 elite guy in Cousins among them). This year it’s Teddy B and whoever gets released. The cost of getting a stopgap doesn’t seem bargain friendly. So it’s hard to see Tanny go that cheaply. Then it becomes a Q of how much Elway wants to invest at stopgap QB. That seems iffy if it’s not a long term solution. So the cap hit and Keenum dead $ makes it less likely unless a bargain signing is possible. Which seems unlikely.
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