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Soggust

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  1. To address the OP - I'm scared the Chiefs will disappoint, personally. I'm skeptical of a Spagnuolo defense, especially in their first year transitioning. Certainly, the offense should put up some points (and we got away with terrible defense last year), but it's not realistic to expect Mahomes to throw 40-50 TDs every year to keep us in 35-40 point shootouts. I hope I'm wrong, but I can absolutely see us underperforming especially with so many high expectations this year.
  2. I'm going to sound like a total Cleveland basher here (especially with my previous post) and it's really not like that, but in the NFL anything is a possibility. The Browns are certainly set up to have a great season, but since their reinstatement 20 years ago, the Browns have had exactly 2 winning seasons (9 and 10 wins in those seasons). I hate to use the "Cleveland gonna Cleveland" logic, but it's certainly not an unrealistic take that the Browns could underperform (as any team could) this season and finish below the Bengals. Until they prove they can be a contender, it's certainly understandable that people are hesitant to buy into the hype.
  3. Respectfully, I think that's kind of a blind homer take regardless of how he performs. You could be totally right and he could be the next McVay or whatever, but realistically at this point, it's like saying "I wouldn't trade Daniel Jones for Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes because he looks like he could be a great QB". He totally could be. But the other option is a proven success (I get you could argue Mahomes isn't "proven" yet, I just picked him to avoid an age argument if I used Brady or Brees or whatever as an example). I sure hope Kitchens succeeds for Cleveland's sake, but at this point, it's ridiculous to not take Tomlin over him from an unbiased perspective. Also, we have seen time and time again where a great OC doesn't make a great coach. Furthermore, he only had 8 games as a great OC. Again, I'm not trying to bash on Kitchens AT ALL, and I hope him the best. I'll even agree that things seem to be trending in the right direction for him. I'm just saying it's a bit premature at this point to project success (or failure), when in reality - He's just an unknown.
  4. You wouldn't take a guy who is a Super Bowl winning coach with exactly 0 losing seasons in 12 years and the second highest winning percentage of active coaches (behind Belichick) over a guy who has never been a HC at any level in his life?
  5. Number of TDs for Mahomes this year

    I think 30-35 is realistic. And I fully expect the rest of the NFL to jump on about how he "regressed" and start questioning him as everyone always does with every player ever. The reality is that most people don't understand just how hard it is to consistently throw that many TDs season to season. Manning : Brady: Brees: Throwing ~30-35TDs is not a bad season at all and probably should be the realistic expectation, but again I don't expect average fans to think that way.
  6. I think it's also excruciatingly clear that a Sophmore slump is not uncommon. Especially when you consider he lost Zeke for 6 games (who the offense was built around). When you subtract the games that Zeke was gone, Dak had 17tds 6picks and 5rushing TDs. Maybe not world beating numbers, but certainly not the "huge regression" you are framing it as. If you want to exclude rookie years, I think it's much more accurate to just compare last year: If you want to say Carson is a slightly better passer and Dak is a bit more mobile, I think that's fair. Regardless, it's a close argument and certainly not ridiculous to prefer one to the other.
  7. Say what you want about Wentz being better than Dak ( I think it's close enough either way that it's not ridiculous to have either opinion ), but rookie year or not - discrediting 40% of Wentz's games (clearly his worst season) and 33% of Prescott's (clearly his best season) is disingenuous when you are talking about 3 year careers.
  8. Nope. He’s there. I even mentioned him in my comment below. Regardless, my point was that Zeke faced more stacked boxes than anyone in the league last year, but again we are arguing something that really doesn’t tell us anything with regards to what kind of defenses Dak threw against, so no point in really hashing it out. I do agree with you that Dak is better than people are giving him credit for. Is he worth 35-40m? I’m not sure, but he’s certainly proved a lot more than Daniel Jones at this point.
  9. I would also add that these statistics as a whole are pretty misleading. These statistics are what % of the time the RB faced a stacked box and still ran. It doesn’t really tell us what was being discussed about Dak throwing on 8 man fronts. A better metric would be how many times Dak threw vs 8 man fronts but I don’t know if that information exists.
  10. I disagree that the majority of guys above him were #1 RBs (unless our definitions of #1 RBs are different). Let's take a look at the guys above him: Clear #1 RBs --------------------- Leonard Fournette Nick Chubb Derrick Henry James Conner Melvin Gordon Sony Michel RBBC ---------------------- Matt Breida Alfred Morris Alex Collins Isaiah Crowell Elijah McGuire Backup RBs ---------------------- LeGarrette Blount Royce Freeman Carlos Hyde Austin Ekeler Latavius Murray Mark Ingram You may disagree on a placement here or there, but I count roughly 6 legitimate RB1s ahead of him (7 if you make the case for Ingram). Certainly, that is not the majority of people ahead of him. Going even further - in 2018, Melvin Gordon was #20 in rushing attempts. He had 175 attempts (which seems like a decent cutoff for RB1 - top 20). Of this list, 5 RBs were in the top 20 of rushing attempts. Sure if you adjust 5%, things open up, but we are also talking about 25%, so 5% is a big swing. Look, I'm not saying that he had some astronomical anomaly of a year at 25%, but he's certainly seeing his fair share of stacked boxes, especially when you consider his massive workload. Remember, it was originally phrased as "why doesn't he face a lot of stacked boxes". Considering his volume of carries, he actually saw more stacked boxes than anyone else in the league.
  11. Why do Texans fans hate Bill O'Brien?

    Not saying you are wrong in general, but wouldn't this be the case for most coaches? I mean, just mathematically speaking, I would assume most coaches do much better vs bad teams than good teams, right?
  12. That is such a flawed argument. We have seen nothing from Jones yet. Until he proves himself at the pro level, I have much more confidence in Dak becoming a top-10 QB than I do a complete unknown. At least Dak has shown the ability to limit turnovers and be smart with the football.
  13. Zeke faced a stacked box on 25% of his carries. No one with a higher % in the league eclipsed 215 carries. Zeke had over 300. What makes you think the Cowboys don't face a lot of stacked boxes?
  14. Chiefs vs. Bengals Preseason GDT

    First Drive on offense thoughts: Mahomes is still Mahomes I have pee dripping down my leg from Mahomes scrambling, but he slid super smartly Kelce is still Kelce Hyde might carve out a solid role as a goal line back
  15. Chiefs vs. Bengals Preseason GDT

    First Drive on defense thoughts: Run D was very solid despite giving up the 1 yard TD Ward got picked on two big plays, but seemed like a product of good offense as opposed to poor coverage Linebackers were liabilities in coverage over the middle DBs played well, but Breeland got burned and was lucky Dalton made a poor throw.
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