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AZBearsFan

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  1. What if Mitch is not the guy?

    This is exactly the kind of stuff I’m talking about, yeah. I’ll be interested to see it after we have more than 2 game sample sizes too. Thanks for sharing. I’m a big fan of what you’re doing there. Your tool is still somewhat limited in being outcome-based though IMO, at least in its present form. This statement is not meant in any way as a criticism of your tool so please don’t take it as that. It sounds like you have plans already to address some of that, and it’s somewhat backward to not consider results when football performance, especially at QB, is largely a results-based game. With that, I’m curious to see if you can figure a way to account for poor decisions that go without consequence like a dropped INT, a throw back across the field after a rollout resulting in an incompletion, a QB taking off and running when a receiver was open and a better option or a check down when a bigger chunk play was open. In a strict statistical analysis, Mitch is downgraded for getting a pass tipped at the line and picked off Monday even though he seemingly made the right read, but not so for the dropped INT at the goal line, and that’s flawed to me. What about circumstantial plays like 4th quarter and trailing, 4th down forced plays, receivers falling down after a pass is thrown or Hail Mary plays? What about a guy on 3rd and 18 throwing a 50-yard pass that results in a pick but is effectively the same as a punt? Those things all matter too when measuring a player’s value and performance and go beyond analysis of standard measurables, and I’m not sure how they can best be quantified short of one completely unbiased yet credible person watching every play by every QB and charting them. Nobody who would actually do this kind of thing doesn’t like football a great deal ahead of time and because of that probably has some bias introducing allegiance somewhere. In case it isn’t showing through, this kind of complex analysis is fascinating to me, and IMO gives a much more thorough picture of how well or poorly someone is performing. Thanks again for sharing. I’m looking forward to seeing this evolve.
  2. What if Mitch is not the guy?

    Let’s take this a step further then (someone with more time than me) - let’s microanalyze every other QB’s every decision too to see if they also occasionally miss an open receiver or make a bad throw or decision, and then compare apples to apples. You’re fooling yourselves if you think every other QB doesn’t also do these things - the true measure is frequency in which they do them. To say Mitch has done these things (which he definitely has) is somewhat meaningless when we are presenting the information without proper context. The measure shouldn’t be outcome driven, because that also takes into account other variables like successes or failures of other players which is beyond Mitch’s control (which cuts both ways in cases of defenders dropping INTs, etc.). Someone used to do a bad decision metric and for the life of me I don’t remember who. Someone more credible than PFF. Do they still do it? I’d be curious to see where Mitch ranks on that. I know logic isn’t in vogue in the modern hot take culture but if we are going to super scrutinize everything Mitch does or does not do we should at least do so in a functional and meaningful way.
  3. Why I have faith in Nagy

    IMO, Nagy won the players over with a few things Trestman didn’t: - Recent high level NFL success - Relatable experiences as a player - Pushing them to embrace their individuality Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.
  4. What if Mitch is not the guy?

    Alex Smith 2012-present: 1754-2730 (64.2%), 19,892 yds (7.3 ya), 117 TD, 38 INT, 94.5 QB Rating. 56-28-1 record. Yeah, that would be awful. 😑😒😖
  5. What if Mitch is not the guy?

    Well at least you aren’t being reactionary or anything... 🤦‍♂️
  6. What if Mitch is not the guy?

    The 1999 Rams, also known as the Greatest Show On Turf and one of the greatest offenses in the 100 year history of the league, advanced to the Super Bowl by beating Tampa Bay 11-6 in the NFC Championship Game. It’s a team game.
  7. What if Mitch is not the guy?

    I think Greg Gabriel (with whom I frequently disagree) summed this up well for PFW: ”I have come to the conclusion that fans expect second year quarterback Mitch Trubisky to be perfect. He’s not allowed to make mistakes and has to complete just about every throw. That’s just not realistic. Did Mitch play a perfect game? No, far from it, but it was an improvement over last week. Yes, he missed a few open receivers and threw two interceptions (one his fault, the other was a tipped ball) but he also threw two touchdown passes and the Bears final touchdown drive that gave them a 17–3 lead was perhaps the Bears best drive of the new season. Mitch was 25-for-34 for 200 yards, a 73.5 percent completion percentage. He improved over last week and the game was not too “big for him." The hope is that he continues to improve each week as he gets more familiar with the offense and the players around him.”
  8. Seahawks @ Bears, 9/17/18, 7:15 CT, GAME THREAD

    Yeah turning around would have been ideal. Credit where due though - that was a frickin’ dime by Wilson and a great grab.
  9. Seahawks @ Bears, 9/17/18, 7:15 CT, GAME THREAD

    FINISH THIS DRIVE
  10. Seahawks @ Bears, 9/17/18, 7:15 CT, GAME THREAD

    I’d like to see something that’s targeted more than 6 yards down the field. I get staying on schedule and what not but we can’t play to win 10-3. Well this D is awesome. Maybe we can.
  11. Seahawks @ Bears, 9/17/18, 7:15 CT, GAME THREAD

    Nice drive. Get 7 here boys.
  12. TABT

    People should be clear and open about their expectations then. We all WANT Mitch to be transcendently great, but to expect that as it seems many do is just not realistic. If 10 years from now he compares favorably to the KC version of Alex Smith then that’s a good return IMO. I want more of course, but an above average and occasionally great starter for a long time at the QB position is something most NFL teams don’t get. Expecting him to be a HOF player because of his draft status would be setting ones self up for disappointment, especially this early on, but it seems that’s where a lot of people are.
  13. What if Mitch is not the guy?

    We see what we want to see. FWIW Watson’s performances to date have translated into a 3-5 record as a starter, and his 3.7% INT rate would trouble me in the long term picture as a Houston fan (for reference, Cutler’s career INT rate was 3.3%). But, his career (like that of Mitch) is also very young and nothing is set in stone. There are a lot of examples of QBs not being turn key stars who went on to excellent careers. Favre, Brees and Alex Smith come immediately to mind. There are also a lot of examples of guys who flashed right away but after a few years were exposed. RGIII and VY are recent examples. Drawing any definitive conclusions even in January is probably too soon no matter how this season plays out.
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