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CWood21 last won the day on December 30 2017

CWood21 had the most liked content!

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About CWood21


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    Green Bay Packers
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    St. Louis Cardinals
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    Los Angeles Lakers
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    Oklahoma Sooners

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  1. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    Your argument is that because he won a Super Bowl before he's more likely to win a Super Bowl, which is fundamentally a semi-broken concept. Yes, there's a marginally better chance you're going to win a second Super Bowl because you're playing with similar players. But when you're talking about a significant gap in between years winning a Super Bowl, that likelihood goes out the window. It's been 8 years since he has won a Super Bowl, and the only other HC who went that far between HC is Brian Bilichick. The average years between Super Bowl wins has been less than 3 years. So either you think he's as good as Bilichick or you think he's bunking about several decades of history. Which is it?
  2. 2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

    And you could easily make an argument that Weaver's value would be an underestimation since there's less variable with him. We know he's at least going to be a 1.5 WAR SP. Probably more than that. As for Carson Kelly, nothing has changed with him. He's got 131 PA to his name, and most of it is sporadic PT at best. Put him an organization that will get him consistent PT, and those numbers don't look as bad. Remember how bad Yadi was with the bat when he first came up? And Carson Kelly turned 24 years old a few months ago, let's not act like we're talking about some late 20s prospect. And I'm not arguing whether or not the Diamondbacks would/should ask for Reyes. I find the odds of a team willing to swallow Greinke's contract pretty low. Greinke's $34.M salary for next year would make up at least a third of 7 teams' payrolls last year. Exclude the teams who are near the luxury tax or will be near the luxury tax once you include arbitration raises and the list of teams dwindles further. Realistically speaking, how many teams do you think can handle Greinke's salary? The Realmuto/Goldschmidt comparison doesn't hold any water for two reasons. First, the Diamondbacks in this hypothetical would be tying Greinke's contract along with it. Secondly, there's that nagging fact that Goldschmidt is a FA at the end of the year where Realmuto has 2 more years of FA. Nobody is giving up a long-term asset like Alex Reyes (assuming you still view him as a top 25 prospect) for a potential rental.
  3. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    People see what they want to see.
  4. 2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

    Let's use PoP as our standard for Prospect value. Between Goldschmidt, Greinke, Fowler, AND the draft pick, you're looking at roughly $66.7M in surplus value. Carson Kelly (51-75 Hitter): $24.1M Dakota Hudson (76-100 Pitcher): $15.1M Luke Weaver (76-100 Pitcher): $15.1M That's roughly $54.3M in surplus value. Add in Nolan Gorman (76-100 hitter), and that pushes the surplus value to over $74.5M which means the Cardinals wouldn't have to give up Alex Reyes MATHEMATICALLY. Now if you think that Dexter Fowler's -1.2 WAR last year was sustainable, that's a different discussion. But if it were between you and me, I'd rather water down the package for Greinke/Goldschmidt and give up less in terms of prospects.
  5. 2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

    Come again? There's no way in hell the Diamondbacks could ask for Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver/Dakota Hudson, and Nolan Gorman.
  6. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    And you continue to duck my question. I'll just move on.
  7. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    How can you possibly say with a straight face that McCarthy has a 42% chance of coming away with a second Super Bowl? Simply because he already has one? That's not how it works. Winning a Super Bowl before doesn't somehow increase the chances of you winning another Super Bowl, especially this far apart. The only HC who has won another Super Bowl this far apart is Bill Belichick. So what makes you think that McCarthy is going to bunk that trend? Short answer, there isn't.
  8. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    I really can't believe this simple concept is going over your head. Despite your opinion otherwise, he doesn't have a 42% chance of winning multiple Super Bowls because your "sample size" you used only includes those who already won. It's not simple statistics, it misleading statistics using faulty information.
  9. 2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

    If Paul Goldschmidt was signed beyond this year, I'd probably be inclined to agree. But he's a FA at the end of the year, and there's really no incentive to sign an extension at this point. If we project the price of WAR at $10M/WAR, that's roughly $50M in value which gives us a surplus value of $35.5M. Using that same WAR estimation for Greinke and an average WAR of 3 WAR/year, you're looking at roughly $90M in value giving you a surplus of -$13.2M. Add those two together, and you're getting roughly $22.3M in surplus value between the two of them. Looking back at Point of Pittsburgh, you're looking at a hitter in that 51-75 range or a pitcher in that 51-75 range plus more. The problem is the Cardinals' farm system isn't overly strong at the top. I suppose the offer would start with someone like Luke Weaver or Dakota Hudson and work from there. Maybe even Carson Kelly perhaps?
  10. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    I'm not sure if you're having trouble following along or just purposely being obtuse. I'm guessing the latter. You made the choice to exclude ALL coaches who have never won a Super Bowl to support your argument, which in itself is intellectually dishonest. You chose that because it fit to your argument. Instead of doing the "fair" comparison, you chose to change the standards to fit. Of the 494 head coaches in NFL history, 13 of them have won multiple Super Bowls. That's 2.6% of all head coaches have won multiple Super Bowls. Let me ask you this, which is more likely? Is it more likely that McCarthy is one of the 2.6% of head coaches who wins multiple Super Bowls or is it more likely we hire a new HC who is part of that 6%? And I know you'll ignore me about the periods in between Super Bowl. The only HC who has won a Super Bowl with as long (or bigger) in between championships is Bill Belichick. So that begs the question, do you think McCarthy is as good as Bill Belichick?
  11. Minnesota sending Butler to Philadelphia

    But you still don't have any names?
  12. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    I mean, Sean McVay seemed to do pretty well without having any experience. As did Shanahan. There's no precedent that says that a new HC is going to need time to adjust. It's based purely on fit.
  13. Week 11 Post-Game: Packers 24 Seahawks 27

    I wish the NFL kept track of pace, but I'm pretty sure our pace is way lower than it used to be.
  14. 2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

    I'd definitely see the Cardinals being interested in a package like this. Especially if they can help mitigate that salary by sending out Dexter Fowler as well. Folwer is due $49.5M over the next 3 years, where as Greinke is due $104.5M over the next 3 years. It'd be like getting Greinke at 3 years, $55M which is SIGNIFICANTLY more palatable. A Fowler+prospects for Greinke/Goldschmidt deal would be HUGE.
  15. You Are In Control. Who Replaces McCarthy?

    If you're going to make the argument about sample sizes, let's use the ENTIRE sample. What percentage of HC won multiple Super Bowls compared to the number of total HC? Not just those who won at least one.