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Andrei01

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  1. Conklin’s 5th year option declined

    I know, and again, when you ignore the first half of the picture, which is the Rams trade, it looks worse than it actually is. That 2nd round pick already turned into a future 1st (5th overall + an extra 3rd in the same Draft) and that 3rd that we didn't own to begin with turned into two extra 2nd round picks. It was a calculated risk based on the haul we already secured that they could spare a small fraction of those extra Draft capital to move up and pick the prospect they said they pretty much wanted all along. And for two years, that seemed like a smart investment. Even if that turns out to be all the we got out of the pick, if you don't overlook the Rams trade (which, again, you really shouldn't) we still netted a bunch of extra top 100 picks. Which means that it wasn't a costly move at all, on the contrary, and it's not a blunder of a top 10 pick considering we got better value out of it than most teams have done so in recent years holding that very same pick in the Draft. Anyway, this should really be judged in more detail after next year when we'll know for sure if he has managed to return to his old form or not. We'll see.
  2. Conklin’s 5th year option declined

    Well, yeah, we could've done better. That's honestly the case with just about any pick. Again, put it under the microscope, and the fact remains that though we traded up for him technically, we still netted extra high picks or traded up across several rounds and still landed him, a player that so far got us at least 2 good years out of 3 on a rookie deal. So I understand it's not ideal, I understand it's great to have high standards for a high pick in the Draft and wanting to hit on that pick and secure his future with the team for at least two NFL contracts. But it's important to know how to evaluate your choices against the tough reality of the NFL and accept that sometimes things inexplicably go wrong. And the reality is that there are different degrees of busting as a top 10 pick. Again, out of the previous six players picked at that same spot as him, he panned out pretty much better than anyone not named Tannehill, who like I said is currently the backup for Mariota. Maybe he didn't meet the expectations, but he still represents a small exception to that trend of 8th overall choices busting hard.
  3. Conklin’s 5th year option declined

    We also received a "king's ransom" prior to making that trade up, we had picks to spare. I mean, at the end of the day does it make it sound worse than it actually is? Well, yeah, but if you look at the bigger picture, comparing what we spent versus what we got in return, we basically traded down to 8, moved up from the 3rd into the 2nd round and got also an extra 2nd round pick, plus exchanged our 2nd round pick of 2017 for an extra 1st round pick (that ended up being 5th overall), and I could be wrong on the math but I think we also landed another 3rd that year (?). Then it doesn't look as bad anymore. Also, yes, I would pretty much consider Locker a waste of a pick.
  4. Conklin’s 5th year option declined

    For the sake of the argument, I've looked up every 8th overall pick in the Draft since 2010 and prior to Conklin (since for the most recent ones it's obviously early to tell). Here they are: 2010: Rolando McClain, played 3 seasons for the Raiders and was waived afterwards. Bust. 2011: Jake Locker. We know how that turned out. 2012: Ryan Tannehill. We know a little something about how this turned out as well. Had some decent years and looked for a while like he was on the verge of putting it all together, but never did, then hit some tough luck with injuries. Perhaps not a bust in the truest sense of the word, but ended up being traded for basically a 4th round pick after 6 seasons played in the league. 2013: Tavon Austin. Don't think this requires much explanation, pretty obvious bust. 2014: Justin Gilbert. Played in 23 games over two years, then traded for a sixth round pick. One more year before he was released and now completely out of the league. 2015: Vic Beasley. One good year out of four in the league. So far a bust, especially considering the expectations. Obviously that's not every Draft ever, so you could argue it's a small sample size. But at least recent history proves that it's alright to have high expectations for an 8th overall pick, but you're likely to miss more often than not. It's just how the game goes. Out of all those six players, (okay, Beasley might have a case) only one has provided more value to their teams than Conklin, and that one player is now Mariota's backup.
  5. Conklin’s 5th year option declined

    Or it could be just insurance in case he doesn't. Or they could structure his contract in a way that even if he's paid more money than the option would've paid him they do it in a way that works better for the team. Given the situation, I'd rather them be cautious rather than having blind faith he'll be worth it next year, but no, I don't think this means they've given up on him at all.
  6. Conklin’s 5th year option declined

    Miss is what I'd go for. Waste implies we didn't get anything out of that pick (which, again, is what someone like Dodd is), which is simply not true. He was good, or at least above average as a RT starter, for two years. While that's not necessarily the return you'd hope for out of a 8th overall pick, that's just the way this business goes sometimes. Players go through injuries and regress, or fail to continue their development on their own. And sometimes you miss on players, which is something you need to accept, both as a fan and as an executive. What if he lights it up this year, but he's asking for too much money, and they decide they already have a ****load to continue paying Lewan, and want to make sure they pay someone like Mariota, Byard, maybe Henry, before him, and he moves on in FA? That'd make it three good years of play of at least above average at the cost of a rookie contract. Which, again, is not the best case scenario for a top 10 pick, but it'd be very far from being a waste of a pick too.
  7. Conklin’s 5th year option declined

    That's a little silly. He was a pretty big reason for the quick turnaround in 2016, helped sending this team to the playoffs in 2017. And this comes from someone who never believed in the hype as much as most people, but that's just absurd. J Rob is definitely not responsible for Conklin's injury or for how he looked coming back from it. Dodd is, IMO, still by far the biggest mistake (at least in the Draft) he has made since taking over. It's undeniable though he improved this team tremendously and sent it on the right path. Even a miss on a top 10 pick won't change that.
  8. Titans select Amani Hooker (4th Round)

    Yeah, he seems like a pretty solid instinctive safety with great coverage and ball skills. At the very least, I would expect a very serviceable rotational player that will produce his fair share of turnovers for us. Not bad at all. Had no idea who he was before the Draft, but I love the pick.
  9. Pick 51 Titans Select AJ Brown

    Why be skeptical about it? We now have a WR corps that features a natural, classic X prototype of a WR in Davis, a deep threat in Taylor, a quick, shifty, more traditional slot receiver in Humphries and a physical, solid route runner with YAC ability that could line up in multiple positions in Brown. We really couldn't be more diverse than that, and it's far from a bad thing. I mean, we went from having a league high number of TEs on roster to now featuring this WR corps, and I couldn't be happier about it. Realistically, I think if Walker somehow has a down year, we could very well see Brown leading the team in either targets, receptions or yards. I just think his play style might very well translate into a "QB's favorite target" type of receiver.
  10. Pick 51 Titans Select AJ Brown

    Yeah, I think finding a way for Brown to see more snaps in the slot would be ideal. He could dominate in 1-on-1 matchups there, and Taywan I think is best suited on the outside anyway. I'm so interested to see what a much more diverse and well rounded WR corps with Davis, Taylor, Brown and Humphries looks like.
  11. Day 3 Draft Talk

    I haven't followed the pre-Draft process this year, but I know some of the people I highly respect value Julian Love as a borderline 1st round talent, and from what I saw I like him too. So I think that'd be some great value for this time of the Draft. You can never have too many quality DBs. There are some other names I'm familiar with still available. For example, I'd love to see what Vrabel could help Christian Miller turn into.
  12. Pick 51 Titans Select AJ Brown

    Love it! Good WR and such a great value for that pick. I have honestly been hoping for this to happen for a while, now. The one receiver I kept thinking about when watching him was Rishard Matthews, and so I always loved the idea of adding his skill set to the offense. Regardless of how that relationship ended, Matthews has been good for us while it lasted. I think Brown is the same, in the sense that he likely won't ever be the most explosive receiver on a team, but he's just too good of a route runner with good body control and just reliable enough to eventually become a QB's favorite target.
  13. I don't really think there should be any pressure to find day 1 impactful players in the rest of the Draft. Thanks to the work he has been doing, we're in a pretty damn good situation roster wise to not have to rely on rookies as much anymore. And we already have two very promising last year rookies that can grow into bigger roles and fill them successfully. As for Simmons, I'll admit I haven't been as caught up in the pre-Draft process as in the past years and don't know all that much about him. But I've read some positive things about his evaluation, and from what I saw he definitely looks talented as a pass rusher. Plus both JRob and Vrabel seemed excited talking about him and about having him, which is very encouraging.
  14. Marcus Mariota: Is it Time ??

    I don't think we need to promote from inside to ensure some continuity. I've seen this argument on twitter and it makes a lot of sense. Vrabel is a defensive minded coach. They will always ask to be able to run the ball effectively and often enough. It also fits with Robinson's philosophy of building the team, so far. So that part I hardly think will change anytime soon. It's why I think someone like DeFilippo makes, frankly, no sense coming here, knowing he was fired for not running the ball often enough. And it's hard to believe that at this point Mariota will lose the see-it-throw-it stigma for good. It's not a bad thing, it just means that whoever comes next to call plays won't be able to make much of a change as to how things are being run. And frankly, it's probably for the best. I think both Mularkey's and LaFleur's systems were pretty similar. Both run heavy, both intending to pick their shots down the field carefully, often with a limited number of receivers running them. I just think that LaFleur was better at scheming and designing those shots, although that's not necessarily reflected in the offensive numbers. And I would also expect a variation of the same system in place for next year too. I think it's what Vrabel/Robinson would ask for in an OC, and very arguably what's needed too.
  15. Offseason Thread

    Good OTs don't get traded that often. Cordy Glenn is the only one I can remember being traded recently, and Buffalo was entering a rebuild phase, Glenn was paid a lot and they badly needed to trade up in the Draft. All it took for Cincinnati to get him was a trade down of 9 spots and they moved up from the 6th round to Buffalo's 5th round pick. That's not a lot, and Glenn plays LT, which needless to say are worth more than RTs in general. It's also not hard to argue that at their best, Glenn has been a better player than Conklin. Conklin was drafted top 10, but his stock was more like mid-1st. It's really hard to argue he played well or consistent enough for that stock to remain as high as it was on Draft day. He's also approaching the end of his rookie contract and he comes with injury concerns. Those are important things to keep in mind. Whoever would line up to trade for him, would do so knowing that A. it's possible he's only a stop gap due to injury concerns, therefore not worth paying for more than one year B. would have to pick up his 5th year option and/or C. sign him to a long term deal. So with all of that in mind, a late 1st would be pretty other worldly. I'm not saying take it, but it'd be foolish not to consider it, if that offer was to come. We have other talent on roster they will need to pay, this would save them some cap to do so and at the same time get them some pretty incredible compensation too. Plus Kelly is still under contract, who we know if needed, can hold it down just fine. Arguably at least at the same level of play Conklin has be able to for at least this past year.
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