AlNFL19

Sure, Sony isn't the most creative runner and that leads to a lot of 4-5 yard carries, but he's a good back. He's way better than Dion Lewis. He's a real lead back, and if the line stops holding every time he gets to the second level, his stats would reflect that. Plus, we don't know the status of his knee totally. It could be that he is a better lateral-movement back than we think, and I think that might be the case. Even if it isn't, Sony was 100% worth the pick I think. I don't think you need an All-Pro if you're drafting an RB at the bottom of Round 1 - the running back position isn't really "dying." He's the best running back we've had since at least Corey Dillon, I think, not "painfully average."

I actually really like the Rams' white uniforms, but I'm not so fond of the home ones. I wish the logo on the shoulders was the white one though, it looks much better IMO. I know it said not your team, but the Pats regular and color rush uniforms are great too.

Patriots need a DT early. The run defense is god awful.

Just watched my first real game tape of the year: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri at Florida (W 38-17). Just watched to look at mechanics and accuracy more than progressions and scheme, etc. My takeaways (just from the one game, will continue with 2-3 more games of Lock - probably Memphis, Alabama, Georgia - later): Pros - Consistently high velocity; throws a tight spiral - Release is consistently quick - Adapts arm slot to pressure - Drives the ball well deep - Athletic and comfortable runner Cons - Inconsistent footwork; doesn't always follow through or throw off proper platform - Release sometimes is a little quirky in ending; arm can lag behind - Troubling accuracy (38% good/perfect, 34% mediocre, 28% bad); intermediate accuracy is very mediocre

I think he was the right pick. If you give me the opportunity for the Giants to take a swing at a "blue chip" quarterback (and Darnold, Allen, and Rosen look less than promising right now) or take a running back like Barkley, I'm taking Barkley. Saquon is something else.

Good slate of games this week. I might miss tonight's, sadly. A lot of close ones in my projections for this week: Kansas City (54%) 33-31 Los Angeles Chargers Houston (61%) 26-21 New York Jets Denver (62%) 30-24 Cleveland New England (55%) 31-29 Pittsburgh - Pats projected to clinch AFC East. Atlanta (64%) 33-26 Arizona Buffalo (50.36%) 24-23 Detroit Chicago (60%) 27-22 Green Bay Cincinnati (59%) 33-29 Oakland - Obviously, the model doesn't know Jeff Driskel is starting this game (though it might not matter). Indianapolis (52%) 23-22 Dallas Minnesota (59%) 24-20 Miami New York Giants (58%) 28-24 Tennessee Washington (53%) 26-22 Jacksonville - Again, the model doesn't know Josh Johnson (who?) is starting for Washington because it takes stats from all season. Baltimore (67%) 32-24 Tampa Bay Seattle (69%) 33-24 San Francisco Los Angeles Rams (68%) 34-25 Philadelphia New Orleans (59%) 36-32 Carolina

Should be a close game, maybe a little too close for comfort. My model's projection: New England (54.66%) 31-29 Pittsburgh. Brady goes over 300.

Jeez - my projections for this week were the worst of the season so far, and dropped my model from 66% to 63.8%. Would be 64.7% now without those last seven seconds. Hopefully I can right the ship next week. No team next week is even a 70% favorite though, so things could get crazy.

That was a very up-and-down first half.

It combines a bunch of rate stats (ex.: ANY/A, TD%, etc.) for offense, defense, and special teams, weighted according to relatively how closely correlating they are to scoring and such and converts it to a total percentage above the average from the last three years. Obviously, special teams is weighted less in total. It also incorporates Pro Football Reference's Strength of Schedule scores. For example, Kansas City is No. 2 (LAR is No. 1) at +25.21% with an offense that ranks +32.76%, a defense at -10.13%, a special teams of +7.27%, and a current schedule strength of 0.4 (0 is average).

According to my model, the Titans are statistically the worst team with a winning record (-12%), so I'll say them. Dolphins and Bills I agree with somewhat though too - they have a really bad offense even though it's gotten better (-18% - was -50% earlier in season).

God, I hope so.

I think I've seen a similar thread but I don't know if I'm remembering correctly. For the Patriots... 1.23: Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia - Wynn tore his Achilles and has been on IR all year. With Trent Brown playing great, he might not have a spot other than replacing Waddle & co. as the swing guy. My grade on him was 7.1 (potentially good NFL starter), so I like his chances at becoming solid. 1.31: Sony Michel, RB, Georgia - Sony has been a slam-dunk so far. He's a true bell cow back and is living up to my expectations of him (7.43 grade - good NFL starter). He's the best back the Patriots have had in a long time in terms of actually running the football. The knee injuries are a concern though. 2.56: Duke Dawson, CB, Florida - Dawson has also been on IR for the whole year, so there's nothing really to show from him. My grade on him was only decent (6.65 - good chance to become good starter) because he wasn't a real special tackler or athlete. However, reports say he's a high-ceiling nickel corner, and with Jonathan Jones struggling recently, that's a good sign. 5.143: Ja'Whaun Bentley, ILB, Purdue - Bentley has been on IR all year but right now looks like a slam-dunk. He called plays in his third-ever game and was a tackling machine before he broke his arm. I didn't scout him before the draft and had no grade on him. 6.178: Christian Sam, ILB, Arizona State - Sam has been on IR all year too but has potential. I did scout him before the draft and gave him a 7.2 (Potentially good NFL starter) because he's an explosive tackler. He might, however, never reach that ceiling. The rest of our draft picks haven't been super important (Berrios, Etling, Dawson, Izzo). J.C. Jackson has been solid.

Here's this week's games, and some numbers: Which games are you most interested in? Thursday Night Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) @ Tennessee Titans (6-6) ESPN FPI Projection: TEN 63.4% Spread: TEN -4.5 TeamRankings Projection: Tennessee 20.6-16.1 Jacksonville NumberFire Projection: Tennessee 23.2-19.4 Jacksonville My Projection: Tennessee (53%) 23-21 Jacksonville Sunday 1:00 PM Eastern New England Patriots (9-3) @ Miami Dolphins (6-6) ESPN FPI Projection: NE 73.7% Spread: NE -7.5 TeamRankings Projection: New England 26.4-19.0 Miami NumberFire Projection: New England 27.5-19.7 Miami My Projection: New England (62%) 28-22 Miami New York Jets (3-9) @ Buffalo Bills (4-8) ESPN FPI Projection: BUF 71.5% Spread: BUF -3.5 TeamRankings Projection: Buffalo 20.4-17.5 New York NumberFire Projection: Buffalo 23.1-17.1 New York My Projection: Buffalo (51%) 19-18 New York Carolina Panthers (6-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-7-1) ESPN FPI Projection: CAR 59.8% Spread: CAR -2 TeamRankings Projection: Carolina 23.6-21.5 Cleveland NumberFire Projection: Cleveland 24.8-23.4 Carolina My Projection: Carolina (55%) 31-29 Cleveland Atlanta Falcons (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (4-7-1) ESPN FPI Projection: GB 64.1% Spread: GB -5.5 TeamRankings Projection: Green Bay 27.5-21.7 Atlanta NumberFire Projection: Green Bay 28.3-21.8 Atlanta My Projection: Green Bay (59%) 35-31 Atlanta Baltimore Ravens (7-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-2) ESPN FPI Projection: KC 75.2% Spread: KC -6.5 TeamRankings Projection: Kansas City 29.8-24.2 Baltimore NumberFire Projection: Kansas City 31.5-22.9 Baltimore My Projection: Kansas City (66%) 33-25 Baltimore New Orleans Saints (10-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) ESPN FPI Projection: NO 74.2% Spread: NO -8 TeamRankings Projection: New Orleans 30.8-23.7 Tampa Bay NumberFire Projection: New Orleans 30.1-21.7 Tampa Bay My Projection: New Orleans (73%) 41-30 Tampa Bay New York Giants (4-8) @ Washington Redskins (6-6) ESPN FPI Projection: WAS 53.3% Spread: NYG -3.5 TeamRankings Projection: New York 22.5-18.9 Washington NumberFire Projection: New York 22.8-21.0 Washington My Projection: New York (54%) 28-26 Washington Indianapolis Colts (6-6) @ Houston Texans (9-3) ESPN FPI Projection: HOU 64.0% Spread: HOU -5 TeamRankings Projection: Houston 26.7-21.7 Indianapolis NumberFire Projection: Houston 30.0-21.0 Indianapolis My Projection: Houston (55%) 24-22 Indianapolis Sunday 4:05 Eastern Cincinnati Bengals (5-7) @ Los Angeles Chargers (9-3) ESPN FPI Projection: LAC 90.3% Spread: LAC -14 TeamRankings Projection: Los Angeles 30.8-16.9 Cincinnati NumberFire Projection: Los Angeles 30.3-16.8 Cincinnati My Projection: Los Angeles (68%) 37-28 Cincinnati Denver Broncos (6-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-10) ESPN FPI Projection: DEN 59.5% Spread: DEN -4.5 TeamRankings Projection: Denver 25.6-22.4 San Francisco NumberFire Projection: Denver 26.2-18.2 San Francisco My Projection: Denver (73%) 33-23 San Francisco Sunday 4:25 Eastern Philadelphia Eagles (6-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-5) ESPN FPI Projection: DAL 67.2% Spread: DAL -3.5 TeamRankings Projection: Dallas 23.6-19.6 Philadelphia NumberFire Projection: Dallas 27.5-19.3 Philadelphia My Projection: Dallas (60%) 29-24 Philadelphia Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4-1) @ Oakland Raiders (2-10) ESPN FPI Projection: PIT 73.5% Spread: PIT -10.5 TeamRankings Projection: Pittsburgh 32.2-21.3 Oakland NumberFire Projection: Pittsburgh 27.3-20.6 Oakland My Projection: Pittsburgh (66%) 35-28 Oakland Detroit Lions (4-8) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-9) ESPN FPI Projection: DET 55.9% Spread: DET -2.5 TeamRankings Projection: Detroit 21.5-19.1 Arizona NumberFire Projection: Detroit 23.4-20.5 Arizona My Projection: Detroit (52%) 28-27 Arizona Sunday Night Football Los Angeles Rams (11-1) @ Chicago Bears (8-4) ESPN FPI Projection: LAR 56.4% Spread: LAR -3 TeamRankings Projection: Los Angeles 26.8-24.0 Chicago NumberFire Projection: Los Angeles 25.7-24.6 Chicago My Projection: Los Angeles (52%) 26-25 Chicago Monday Night Football Minnesota Vikings (6-5-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5) ESPN FPI Projection: SEA 65.5% Spread: SEA -3.5 TeamRankings Projection: Seattle 23.3-20.5 Minnesota NumberFire Projection: Seattle 27.2-20.2 Minnesota My Projection: Seattle (55%) 24-22 Minnesota I'm going to watch NE-MIA (obviously), the night games, and probably BAL-KC because I haven't really seen Lamar play yet live.

Not sure if he's under the radar anymore, but James White is on pace for 99 receptions, 879 yards receiving, 8 TDs. He's the guy the passing game really runs through in New England now.