AlNFL19

Brees and Thomas will probably put up the biggest numbers, but if he gets reinstated, watch out for Flash Gordon and Brady. They were (unsurprisingly) pretty good together last year.

I'm a Patriots fan who has been on the site since around January of last year, and have really started to try to get involved with the draft in the last two years. The year before this year, I took a more traditional approach, but this year, I didn't have the time to watch film on many prospects, which was a real disappointment. I've been interested in the statistical side of the game for a while, so one of my recent projects has been to try to develop statistical methods of projecting NFL success for college players based on their draft position, college statistics, and combine measurables. Eventually I hope to use it to create a big board for this past draft and future ones and be able to look back at which teams drafted the best this past year by my methods. If you look for a bit, I'm sure you'll be able to find some of my threads, which are grouped by position. We've got a great group of film junkie kind of guys here, so I think expanding our collective reach with another way of looking at the draft would just make the whole experience all the better. I'm looking forward to seeing the work everyone puts out here in the future, no matter how small.

@BleedTheClock Wow, all things considered, that’s very impressive. I didn’t personally follow the draft much in 2014 (2014 was my introduction to following the draft), but I’m sure my takes would’ve been worse. @Ragnarok Looking forward to more draft stuff. Thanks for your work so far.

If Gordon gets reinstated and N'Keal Harry is any good, the Patriots could have a killer offense again, even without Gronk. Having Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, and Harry would be a pretty good start in the passing game, along with James White, and the running game looks like it should take a step forward this year with Damien Harris and a second-year Sony Michel. As long as Scarnecchia is still coaching, the left tackle issue doesn't worry me at all, either.

With the Gurley knee situation, I think Barkley's in a tier by himself. Elliott and Kamara are close, and some other guys could get there with big years (DJ, CMC, Le'Veon could get up there again), but right now Barkley is in my eyes the undisputed number one and by a good margin at that.

Sorry, should clarify two things: Froholdt is a guard. Also, these models are built for players drafted in the first three rounds because that’s where the data they’re built on is from.

Added Offensive Tackles to this thread. 7 of 11 projection models are now done (remaining: IOL, EDGE, CB, S). The eventual goal is to be able to compile a big board, regardless of position. So that's what's coming in the (hopefully near) future.

Sorry, I should have clarified this. The broad jump and vertical jump are actually not included in the model, because they didn’t have a significant correlation to success at the NFL level in the way that other drills did. Specifically, the 40, 10-yard split, 3-cone drill, and short shuttle are all included because they correlate a lot better. The only one of those in which Hill performed very well was the shuttle, which is only included in a formula that measures it, the 10-yard split, and the 3-come together. So of what the model really looks at, his numbers weren’t special.

I hope he's not out for long. Tom would have quite the time with Josh, Julian, N'Keal, and James White at his disposal, I dare say, no matter if Gronk is gone for good.

Yeah. I think you can say a lot more with statistics and context than you can with one or the other, so this is just the one side of it. Still, it’s reasonable I think.

I've taken a break but here's another statistical take on this year's rookie class. If you want an explanation, look through one of the other threads linked at the bottom of the OP. I'm too lazy to type it again. What goes into the model: Volume stats like Tackles For Loss and Sacks Efficiency stats like Sacks per Defensive Attempt Combine Testing It provides a projection in terms of average AV in years 3-4 based on a data set from 2006-2015, as well as a % chance to bust (<5.0 AV) or reach Pro Bowl (10+ AV) status. Probabilities of Hitting Thresholds (2006-2015) Projection: >5.00 AV Threshold Reality Projected Avg. Pro Bowl 23.53% 24.48% Hit 82.35% 80.16% Bust 17.65% 19.84% Projection: <5.00 AV Threshold Reality Projected Avg. Pro Bowl 4.17% 3.94% Hit 31.94% 32.46% Bust 68.06% 67.54% Here's the 2019 class rankings: 1. QUINNEN WILLIAMS, ALABAMA Q. Williams, DT, Alabama Statistic Figure Projected AV 6.23 Bust Chance <1.00% PB Chance 33.23% No surprise here. Williams was the best defensive player in the country all year and put up freak numbers at the combine. Williams' projection is third all-time to Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh (not bad company). 2. ED OLIVER, HOUSTON E. Oliver, DT, Houston Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.52 Bust Chance 21.15% PB Chance 23.91% Oliver's 2018 season fell short of the astronomical expectations many had of him, but his production was good enough that it spat out a good number when combined with his freak athletic traits, like a 4.73 40 time. 3. JEFFERY SIMMONS, MISSISSIPPI STATE J. Simmons, DT, Mississippi St. Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.01 Bust Chance 36.69% PB Chance 17.22% If I were a Titans fan, I would be thrilled with this projection, and here's why: it's a pretty conservative estimate. Simmons' ACL injury meant he didn't complete much in the way of athletic testing, so the model takes a very conservative path in that regard. Despite that, Simmons' projection is still high. 4. CHRISTIAN WILKINS, CLEMSON C. Wilkins, DT, Clemson Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.99 Bust Chance 37.30% PB Chance 16.96% Wilkins' projection is below the 5.0 hit mark, but he's got a high likelihood of success regardless (62.70% hit chance). His projection is the highest of any since 2006 to fall below the 5.0 mark, at 4.985, to be exact - right between that of Corey Liuget and Trevor Laws. 5. JERRY TILLERY, NOTRE DAME J. Tillery, DT, Notre Dame Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.66 Bust Chance 47.35% PB Chance 12.63% Tillery put up pretty good numbers all around, good enough to have a more-than-half hit chance, including a second-in-the-class 8.0 sacks, tying Quinnen Williams. Tillery's projection suffers, however, from playing for a Notre Dame defense that faced 37.3 pass attempts per game, knocking down his efficiency statistics. 6. DEXTER LAWRENCE, CLEMSON D. Lawrence, DT, Clemson Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.21 Bust Chance 61.06% PB Chance 6.73% Lawrence, serving as more of a traditional nose tackle, didn't rack up the stats at Clemson to give him a great projection. However, he did have some stellar athletic testing. Lawrence's 5.05 40-yard dash doesn't jump off the page in terms of time, but at 342 pounds, it's a very impressive mark. 7. DRE'MONT JONES, OHIO STATE D. Jones, DT, Ohio State Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.04 Bust Chance 66.24% PB Chance 4.50% Viewed as a potential Day 1 pick coming into the season, Jones' stock fell before he declared for the draft despite putting up a rankings-best 8.5 sacks in 2018. Jones wasn't a good performer at the combine, clocking in a 5.12 40 despite weighing just 281 pounds, far and away the lightest of the group. 8. TRYSTEN HILL, UCF T. Hill, DT, UCF Statistic Figure Projected AV 3.97 Bust Chance 68.37% PB Chance 3.58% Hill was drafted above Jones, but this model thinks he shouldn't have been. Hill's production wasn't very high at UCF (36 total tackles, 3 sacks in his final season), and his athletic testing wasn't really anything special. *There is no projection for Khalen Saunders because he played in the FCS, with which the model isn't really compatible because of the obvious discrepancies statistically between it and the FBS. If you want a more in-depth explanation on how this kind of model works, or are interested in similar things, check out this thread, or the other ones named "(Position) Statistical Projections", which are linked in the thread below: EDIT: I've decided to add the Offensive Tackle projections to this thread because I don't think it merits its own due to the lack of real on-field stats at the position. The offensive tackle projections include: Draft Position Combine Testing Here's the 2019 class projections, without explanations because there isn't much to explain. The model counts Draft Position, 40 Time, 10-Yard Split, and Vertical Jump highly. 1. ANDRE DILLARD, WASHINGTON STATE A. Dillard, OT, Washington State Statistic Figure Projected AV 6.04 Bust Chance 27.42% PB Chance 22.33% 2. TYTUS HOWARD, ALABAMA STATE T. Howard, OT, Alabama State Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.86 Bust Chance 31.58% PB Chance 19.11% 3. KALEB MCGARY, WASHINGTON K. McGary, OT, Washington Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.84 Bust Chance 32.04% PB Chance 18.75% 4. JONAH WILLIAMS, ALABAMA J. Williams, OT, Alabama Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.83 Bust Chance 32.27% PB Chance 18.57% 5. CODY FORD, OKLAHOMA C. Ford, OT, Oklahoma Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.21 Bust Chance 46.61% PB Chance 7.49% 6. GREG LITTLE, OLE MISS G. Little, OT, Mississippi Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.13 Bust Chance 48.46% PB Chance 6.06% 7. DALTON RISNER, KANSAS STATE D. Risner, OT, Kansas State Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.09 Bust Chance 49.38% PB Chance 5.34% 8. MAX SCHARPING, NORTHERN ILLINOIS M. Scharping, OT, NIU Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.97 Bust Chance 52.15% PB Chance 3.20% 9. JAWAAN TAYLOR, FLORIDA J. Taylor, OT, Florida Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.92 Bust Chance 53.31% PB Chance 2.30% 10. TREY PIPKINS, SIOUX FALLS T. Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.89 Bust Chance 54.00% PB Chance 1.77% 11. CHUMA EDOGA, USC C. Edoga, OT, USC Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.46 Bust Chance 63.94% PB Chance <1.00% 12. BOBBY EVANS, OKLAHOMA B. Evans, OT, Oklahoma Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.44 Bust Chance 64.41% PB Chance <1.00% 13. YODNY CAJUSTE, WEST VIRGINIA Y. Cajuste, OT, West Virginia Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.25 Bust Chance 68.80% PB Chance <1.00% Although with Scarnecchia, Cajuste might be the most likely to outperform his projection. Or not. We'll see.

Sorry I totally forgot to address this until just now. Only a little late. Thomas' projection was rather unremarkable, falling in the 46th percentile of the data set, but it wasn't terrible: M. Thomas, WR, Ohio State Statistic Figure Projected AV 4.04 Bust Chance 59.91% PB Chance 7.98% Thomas had middling efficiency stats and volume stats and was a second-round pick, so his projection is very middling itself.

For those of you that factor positional importance into draft grades and such, how do you do so specifically?

Sorry Though as a D2 late-round pick Hill would, I’m sure, have a terrible projection were he eligible (D2 and FCS stats obviously don’t capture the same things as FBS stats).

He’s technically not eligible for the model as a late round pick, but also I can’t really run the numbers because he finished up his collegiate career in Division II.