AlNFL19

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Here we go again with the Round 2 DB.

Lots of people on Twitter seem to think Jarrett Stidham is the plan.

Today is a sad day for New England, but I’ve found my new favorite NFC team at least. Go Bucs!

While #TankForTua went by the wayside with his injury and Joe Burrow's meteoric rise, Tagovailoa is still almost sure to be a Top-16 pick this April, and many think he's a Top-5 pick. What says FF? Reminder: Questions are multiple choice.

Let's see what people really think of the No. 1 overall pick this coming April. Reminder: Questions are multiple choice.

So polls can only have 3 questions apparently. Should I keep the formatting the same? Kind of scratching my head here.

Should I format the questions as above average / average / below average again, or as excellent / average / poor as @Kiwibrown suggested a while back? Or both (if polls can have 5 ?s)

So I just wanted to bump this up to see if anybody thought it would be a good thing to do for some players this year, particularly the QBs, probably starting with Joe Burrow. Just going to @ some people who are pretty active in the draft forum so hopefully this gets seen: @Ragnarok @Danger @goldfishwars @VanS @CalhounLambeau @SmittyBacall @Counselor @jrry32 @Ozzy @HoboRocket @BleedTheClock

ESPN's Total QBR, despite being kind of a joke of a statistic, has been a decent predictor of NFL success. Based on the data I collected from quarterbacks drafted from 2006 to 2016 in the first three rounds: Share of NFL ANY/A+ Predicted Statistic R-Squared Draft Position 15.53% Total QBR 14.20% Passer Rating 4.36% No other college passing statistic had an r-squared of greater than 9.66% (Total TDs), so I think Total QBR is at least worth taking a look at for college players (if you value college stats at all, which is in itself another debate).

Final projections for this year: There's a new red variable here that's the probability that each quarterback matches the average from the 2006-2016 Rounds 1-3 sample that I used to create the model, which was around 89 rather than 100. Burrow's championship game performance boosted him above Newton and Mayfield to 3rd since 2006 (Murray, Mariota). Hopefully I'll get some time to do some tape study with these guys to get some complete grades (probably weighting it half-and-half). And the raw point estimate for ANY/A+ (can be interpreted as a rough 0-100 grade): Obviously it wasn't exactly created for this purpose so some of the intervals between players seem pretty small.

I split the data in my model to test it against out-of-sample data, and made some changes based on that (correlation is 0.50). With just one game left in the college season, my model's rankings stand at: Model adjustment bumps Burrow down to 5th since 2006 (Newton) Model adjustment flips Stanley and Eason

I think these are, in no order, the top four: Drew Brees (2019): 281/378 (74.34%), 2,979 passing yards, 27 TDs, 4 INTs, 8.33 ANY/A, 7.1 TD%, 1.06 INT%, 13-3 Record, lost in Wild Card Round Tom Brady (2018): 375/570 (65.79%), 4,355 passing yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs, 7.26 ANY/A, 5.1 TD%, 1.93 INT%, 11-5 Record, won Super Bowl Tom Brady (2017): 385/581 (66.27%), 4,577 passing yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, 7.56 ANY/A, 5.5 TD%, 1.38 INT%, 13-3 Record, lost Super Bowl Brett Favre (2009): 363/531 (68.36%), 4,202 passing yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 7.61 ANY/A, 6.2 TD%, 1.32 INT%, 12-4 Record, lost NFC Championship I think my #1 is 2017 Brady because his regular-season statistics were pretty dominant, he led the Patriots to a 13-3 record, and he was masterful in the playoffs.