AlNFL19

The Patriots got Jason McCourty, a starting cornerback, basically for free. Also, the two Cooks trades meant the Patriots rented Cooks for a year and moved up in the first round. And, of course, trading a third for Trent Brown to start at LT before getting a third (compensatory) back for him. Compensatory thirds have been a theme for the Patriots recently.

Just think about how freaky good this Clemson defensive line was. DE - Austin Bryant DT - Christian Wilkins DT - Dexter Lawrence DE - Clelin Ferrell So how many teams would take that crew over their own?

Yeah. I think it's kind of useful. It does show the fact that, really, quarterbacks drafted in the third round will basically amount to nothing if they didn't have dominant college statistics like Russell Wilson did. It has been historically pretty close with its probabilities: Projection: >5.00 AV Threshold Reality Projected Avg. Pro Bowl 44.44% 40.63% Hit 55.56% 49.60% Bust 44.44% 50.40% Projection: <5.00 AV Threshold Reality Projected Avg. Pro Bowl 4.76% 12.46% Hit 9.52% 18.12% Bust 90.48% 81.88%

Neither is projected by Scouts Inc. to be a Day 1-2 prospect, so I didn't include them, but here are their projections: Regular Projection: T. Jackson, QB, Buffalo Statistic Figure Projected AV 3.22 Bust Chance 89.81% PB Chance 2.98% C. Thorson, QB, Northwestern Statistic Figure Projected AV 1.36 Bust Chance >99.90% PB Chance <1.00% Experience-Adjusted Projection: T. Jackson, QB, Buffalo Statistic Figure Projected AV 3.21 Bust Chance 89.88% PB Chance 2.91% C. Thorson, QB, Northwestern Statistic Figure Projected AV 1.39 Bust Chance >99.90% PB Chance <1.00% Either way, the model hates both of them. Starting a million games wasn't enough for Thorson to overcome some dreadful statistics. **Keep in mind, statistics for quarterbacks drafted after Round 3 are even more unreliable than before (which is certainly saying something), so these projections might be more off than the other ones will be.

Okay, so I've been working the last few days on updating the model. I came up with an adjustment factor for Experience. It correlates just as well to success as the original model, so I'll just show the experience-adjusted projections here: Experience-Adjusted (2016-19 Classes) 2016-2019 Draft Classes: Experience-Adjusted Projections Year Player Projected AV Bust Chance PB Chance 2019 K. Murray 6.93 31.91% 58.31% 2018 B. Mayfield 6.80 33.93% 56.37% 2018 L. Jackson 5.94 47.34% 43.57% 2017 D. Watson 5.78 49.83% 41.18% 2017 M. Trubisky 5.75 50.30% 40.74% 2017 P. Mahomes 5.62 52.32% 38.80% 2016 J. Goff 5.54 53.57% 37.61% 2019 D. Lock 5.46 54.82% 36.42% 2019 D. Haskins 5.43 55.28% 35.98% 2018 S. Darnold 5.31 57.15% 34.18% 2016 P. Lynch 5.28 57.62% 33.74% 2018 J. Rosen 4.60 68.22% 23.61% 2019 R. Finley 4.59 68.38% 23.46% 2018 J. Allen 4.53 69.31% 22.57% 2017 D. Kizer 4.48 70.09% 21.82% 2018 M. Rudolph 4.27 73.36% 18.69% 2019 D. Jones 3.97 78.04% 14.23% 2019 J. Stidham 3.68 82.56% 9.91% 2016 J. Brissett 3.49 85.52% 7.08% 2016 C. Hackenberg 3.36 87.55% 5.14% 2019 W. Grier 3.00 93.16% <1.00% 2016 C. Kessler 2.86 95.34% <1.00% 2017 D. Webb 2.60 99.39% <1.00% 2017 C.J. Beathard 2.30 >99.90% <1.00% Some notes: The experience adjustment knocks Murray's projection, but not by much: from 7.10 to 6.93, still an elite projection. With the experience adjustment, Murray and Mayfield both rank Top 3, behind Mariota's 6.95. The experience adjustment hits Trubisky with a -0.12 net, knocking him below Deshaun Watson. The experience adjustment makes a big difference in this year's rankings, as it puts Drew Lock ahead of Dwayne Haskins And the 2019 rankings, adjusted for college experience: 1. Kyler Murray 2. Drew Lock 3. Dwayne Haskins 4. Ryan Finley 5. Daniel Jones 6. Jarrett Stidham 7. Will Grier

It doesn’t tell you anything. It’s not “shying away from contact” to throw the ball away. Most of the time, it’s being smart and making the right decision.

I disagree, particularly with throwing the ball away. Throwing the ball away is smarter than taking a hit and a loss.

Just based on how close their final projections are. Not a good sign. But I think the Pats could turn Finley or Jones into something, if anyone can.

Yes, I do. I have every FBS QB drafted Rounds 1-3 since 2006. Ponder was actually far higher in projection, which even further makes the case against Jones. However, Ponder was still projected to likely (58.63%) be a bust. C. Ponder, QB, Florida State Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.22 Bust Chance 58.63% PB Chance 32.77% And in terms of projections, these were the players that ranked the same in their respective classes: 1. Cam Newton ; Kyler Murray 2. Colin Kaepernick ; Dwayne Haskins 3. Andy Dalton ; Drew Lock 4. Jake Locker ; Ryan Finley 5. Christian Ponder ; Daniel Jones 6. Blaine Gabbert ; Jarrett Stidham 7. Ryan Mallett ; Will Grier And the 2011 class was significantly better in terms of average projection, though Kyler's projection is the highest of all listed. Not a good thing either. Edit: Jones' closest comparison by projection is Brian Brohm.

I developed a statistical model that I displayed in the NFL Draft subforum, and it doesn't like Jones either (neither do I). His projection (in terms of Years 3-4 average Approximate Value): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke Statistic Figure Projected AV 3.95 Bust Chance 78.29% PB Chance 13.99% That's good for fifth behind Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Finley. Of the 21 qualified (drafted in first three rounds) prospects since 2006 to fall under 5.0 projected AV, there have been 2 to cross 5.0 AV in reality (Matt Ryan and Chad Henne - Henne hit exactly 5). Not a good sign.

I'm disappointed that I haven't had the motivation this year to do much pre-draft stuff like years prior. It kind of sucks not knowing much beyond the, say, top-50 prospects. On the Haskins question, if he's there at 32 there's like a 95% chance Bill would trade the pick for an absolute haul to a team looking to get him with a fifth-year option ahead of the top of the second where more teams might look to take a QB.

If they've ever played for Belichick, there's probably a good chance they're a mentally tough guy (with some exceptions, obviously). Other than that, I don't think stats reflect toughness in any way. Snap counts are influenced by injuries that are mostly bad luck, or by team system.

"The best ability is availability" I believe it was.

The current split for quarterbacks with a higher projection than Jackson (excluding Mayfield) is 6 "hits" and 4 "busts", which isn't a great rate but when the projected average bust rate for the 10 is 41.55%, 40% is right where you'd expect it to be. The bucket directly below Lamar is 4-for-7 hitting 5.0 AV, despite an average projected bust rate of 50% (around 41% in reality). Basically, the numbers are slightly on Jackson's side. This is probably because, interestingly enough, one of the statistics I tested with the highest correlation to NFL Approximate Value for quarterbacks was Rushing Yards per Attempt. It sounds crazy, but it makes some sense. Check this out if you feel like it, I think it explains it a little: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qb-functional-mobility-model-2019. Jackson's 6.9 final season YPA rushing is second since 2006 to just Murray at 7.2, which obviously projects highly.

Sure. Sorry for the delay. 2016 NFL Draft Player Projected AV Bust Chance PB Chance J. Goff 5.51 54.01% 37.19% P. Lynch 5.25 58.11% 33.27% J. Brissett 3.52 85.12% 7.47% C. Hackenberg 3.34 87.94% 4.77% C. Kessler 2.82 95.98% <1.00% 2017 NFL Draft Player Projected AV Bust Chance PB Chance M. Trubisky 5.87 48.47% 42.48% D. Watson 5.80 49.56% 41.44% P. Mahomes 5.65 51.90% 39.20% D. Kizer 4.52 69.51% 22.37% D. Webb 2.61 99.25% <1.00% C.J. Beathard 2.31 >99.90% <1.00% 2018 NFL Draft Player Projected AV Bust Chance PB Chance B. Mayfield 6.75 34.68% 55.66% L. Jackson 5.93 47.46% 43.45% S. Darnold 5.35 56.60% 34.72% J. Rosen 4.62 67.97% 23.85% J. Allen 4.56 68.83% 23.03% M. Rudolph 4.23 73.94% 18.14% Some things to note: Mayfield's projection is 5th since 2006 Beathard's projection is 3rd-worst since 2006 Allen's projection is the 2nd-worst for a 1st-round pick since 2006 (Brandon Weeden) Jackson's projection is 12th since 2006