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AlNFL19

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Everything posted by AlNFL19

  1. Lots of people on Twitter seem to think Jarrett Stidham is the plan.
  2. Today is a sad day for New England, but I’ve found my new favorite NFC team at least. Go Bucs!
  3. While #TankForTua went by the wayside with his injury and Joe Burrow's meteoric rise, Tagovailoa is still almost sure to be a Top-16 pick this April, and many think he's a Top-5 pick. What says FF? Reminder: Questions are multiple choice.
  4. Let's see what people really think of the No. 1 overall pick this coming April. Reminder: Questions are multiple choice.
  5. So polls can only have 3 questions apparently. Should I keep the formatting the same? Kind of scratching my head here.
  6. Should I format the questions as above average / average / below average again, or as excellent / average / poor as @Kiwibrown suggested a while back? Or both (if polls can have 5 ?s)
  7. So I just wanted to bump this up to see if anybody thought it would be a good thing to do for some players this year, particularly the QBs, probably starting with Joe Burrow. Just going to @ some people who are pretty active in the draft forum so hopefully this gets seen: @Ragnarok @Danger @goldfishwars @VanS @CalhounLambeau @SmittyBacall @Counselor @jrry32 @Ozzy @HoboRocket @BleedTheClock
  8. ESPN's Total QBR, despite being kind of a joke of a statistic, has been a decent predictor of NFL success. Based on the data I collected from quarterbacks drafted from 2006 to 2016 in the first three rounds: Share of NFL ANY/A+ Predicted Statistic R-Squared Draft Position 15.53% Total QBR 14.20% Passer Rating 4.36% No other college passing statistic had an r-squared of greater than 9.66% (Total TDs), so I think Total QBR is at least worth taking a look at for college players (if you value college stats at all, which is in itself another debate).
  9. Final projections for this year: There's a new red variable here that's the probability that each quarterback matches the average from the 2006-2016 Rounds 1-3 sample that I used to create the model, which was around 89 rather than 100. Burrow's championship game performance boosted him above Newton and Mayfield to 3rd since 2006 (Murray, Mariota). Hopefully I'll get some time to do some tape study with these guys to get some complete grades (probably weighting it half-and-half). And the raw point estimate for ANY/A+ (can be interpreted as a rough 0-100 grade): Obviously it wasn't exactly created for this purpose so some of the intervals between players seem pretty small.
  10. I split the data in my model to test it against out-of-sample data, and made some changes based on that (correlation is 0.50). With just one game left in the college season, my model's rankings stand at: Model adjustment bumps Burrow down to 5th since 2006 (Newton) Model adjustment flips Stanley and Eason
  11. I think these are, in no order, the top four: Drew Brees (2019): 281/378 (74.34%), 2,979 passing yards, 27 TDs, 4 INTs, 8.33 ANY/A, 7.1 TD%, 1.06 INT%, 13-3 Record, lost in Wild Card Round Tom Brady (2018): 375/570 (65.79%), 4,355 passing yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs, 7.26 ANY/A, 5.1 TD%, 1.93 INT%, 11-5 Record, won Super Bowl Tom Brady (2017): 385/581 (66.27%), 4,577 passing yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, 7.56 ANY/A, 5.5 TD%, 1.38 INT%, 13-3 Record, lost Super Bowl Brett Favre (2009): 363/531 (68.36%), 4,202 passing yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 7.61 ANY/A, 6.2 TD%, 1.32 INT%, 12-4 Record, lost NFC Championship I think my #1 is 2017 Brady because his regular-season statistics were pretty dominant, he led the Patriots to a 13-3 record, and he was masterful in the playoffs.
  12. College overtime is weird in my opinion, and it would mess with statistics a lot (do you just not count OT stats? what do you do when a huge shootout happens and a QB throws 10 touchdowns on short-field drives?). I think playing a 10-minute or whatever set period would be fine.
  13. Other people have already said what I would about this, so I’ll just point out one more thing: DJ Chark is not a rookie.
  14. They ran more time off the clock than they should have been able to by taking two penalties. Bill talked about it earlier this year.
  15. That’s why I said it was frustrating.
  16. AlNFL19

    Tom Time

    I hope he comes back. This year had so many problems I hope he'll want to prove to people that he wasn't the reason they lost.
  17. Frustrating that Tennessee running 1:46 off the clock through a loophole ended up mattering so much, but this was to be expected. The Patriots' offense was a disaster all season.
  18. Volume stats like passing yards and such are almost never a complete (and completely good) picture of quarterback play. Let's take a look at some efficiency stats: Russell Wilson: 66.1% completion rate on 9.4 Intended Air Yards per Attempt, 6.0% TD rate, 1.0% INT rate, 7.42 ANY/A (116 ANY/A+) Carson Wentz: 63.9% completion rate on 7.9 Intended Air Yards per Attempt, 4.4% TD rate, 1.2% INT rate, 6.26 ANY/A (100 ANY/A+) With the exception of interception rate, which Wilson still bested Wentz at, these are pretty significant differences, most notably in Wilson's 1.16-yard advantage in ANY/A, a stat that regarded Wentz as dead-on average. Sure, the pair threw for close numbers of yards, touchdowns, and such, but that becomes suspect evidence at best for them having "similar seasons" when you notice that Wentz attempted 91 more passes.
  19. I redid my quarterback projections this year, working around the chance that a player hits 100 ANY/A+ for his career. For those who don't know, ANY/A+ is a measure of how much better or worse than the average player in a given year that a quarterback is in terms of Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), where 100 is average. These are the all-time single-season leaders: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_index_single_season.htm The model values rushing surprisingly highly, because having a dual-threat quarterback is becoming more and more necessary for NFL success. The numbers have started to back that up: from 2006 to 2016 among highly-drafted (Rounds 1-3) quarterbacks, college Total Yards, Total Yards per Attempt, and Total Touchdown Rate, as three examples, all correlate higher to career ANY/A+ in the NFL than their pass-only counterparts (Yards, Y/A, TD%). Anyway, as it stands right now, these are the projections for the 2020 class, using Scouts Inc.'s projections as a stand-in for draft position. Name College ANY/A+ Score* J. Burrow LSU 35.02% T. Tagovailoa* Alabama 30.72% J. Hurts Oklahoma 26.88% J. Herbert Oregon 20.25% A. Gordon Washington St. 17.67% J. Fromm Georgia 16.02% J. Love Utah State 15.57% J. Eason Washington 14.82% N. Stanley Iowa 14.47% Burrow ranks 4th since 2006 (Murray, Mayfield, Mariota) Eason (28th overall by Scouts Inc.) would be the worst first-round QB since 2006 in terms of projection, with Fromm a close second (27th overall)
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