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OneTwoSixFive

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  1. 2019 Draft Discussion

    Having a player play well as a rookie starter is a bonus. You don't draft them for their rookie year, you draft them for a career. That even applies to first round picks.
  2. Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

    So true. You hope for the best with rookies, but you have to accept they are just that and even guys that eventually become good players can be overwhelmed early on. The players you should really be getting excited over are last years picks (and maybe even the year before that)............but who the heck ever does that ? For the majority of drafted players (in other words, a generalisation), in the rookie year you hope to get something, and by the seasons end you are halfway between hope and expectation that they have improved. In year two you expect guys to be firmly on the path to being the best they can be, and it is reasonable to anticipate a real jump from rookie to year 2. If it hasn't happened before now, year three is 'the perform or be gone' year. Very talented players like Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams took until year three to shine because there is much to learn and some positions are easier (more instinctive) than others. Good RBs quite often shine as rookies, as their position has a lot of instinct attached to it. Good line play (on O and D) takes time, because rookies (if playing) are very often directly wrestling with real savvy vets that might be five or ten years older. Line play is very mano a mano.
  3. Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

    That kid (Simmons) can't catch a break. There is still the chance (at #12) of Oliver (small chance i admit), Wilkins, Gary. i might have to look closer at Lawrence to see how much he can impact the passing game, but I've never been a fan of guys much over 320 (I think he is 340) due to the likelihood of knee problems. I could go for Dre'Mont Jones a little later (say #44). I would still be interested in Simmons later, but given the wait needed and the increased risk, it would be somewhere like round 4.
  4. Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

    For your point 2. At #30 you will be making a very good choice indeed, if you are getting a blue chipper at any position. You might get lucky but I'd be looking at a solid red chipper there (with just a chance to be a blue). The way I view OTs is that any of Ford/Dillard/Taylor are great value at #30. Cajuste is decent value. Little MIGHT be value there (all in the eye of the beholder, he certainly has "round one feet"). I see Risner as a small step down (but still good, and value at #44). Then we have Edwards (high-ceiling, low-floor guy) that is more of a risk. I could probably find a pick I'm more comfortable with at #44, but if you love his tape then take him there. Then we are on the slippery slope down to Howard and Scharping. Bleacher Report has McGary down at #169. This is why I have OT at #30. I am hopeful this area is a bit of a sweet spot for OTs (though due to demand, it is possible pickings might be thin, even there). Would I reach for Risner at #30 if there was a run on OTs, probably not, though it's close. I might switch tactics and look for a good guard instead (like Deiter or Lindstrom) anywhere after #44.
  5. Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

    You forgot DTs in your list, they are considered a premium position as well. It is right (as you say) that at some point inevitably the premium positions (if they keep getting taken), will stack up less and less well with other positions. I rather doubt anyone argues against that, though for different folks, the point where you choose a non-premium position over a premium one, varies. However that is just a part of the draft equation. For example, you need to look and see where the talent level dropoffs are AT EACH POSTION GROUP. Certain groups, the ones that require difficult-to-find traits, are less deep because of the rare skills needed, and as a consequence the better guys go fast.......and tend to get paid more to be retained, on second and third contracts. You want a pass rusher, good luck throwing the dice on one after round 2, and the best of them (Bosa/J.Allen/Ferrell/Sweat/Polite and probably Burns) are all gone in round one (and you are unlikely to get a better year for them, in quite a while). with OTs, again it's the first two rounds for a good one. With the better DTs (in a terrific year for them) you need to be in the first two rounds at least, most are gone in round one. THIS is why you get these positions early, if you want a decent chance to acquire starter-quality guys. Now this year the Packers DO have an urgent need for an edge guy, since we might well lose both starting OLBs in Perry and Matthews, but even if we only lose one, all those snaps needs to be taken by someone in 2019, and while Fackrell has become a fine backup, you don't really want him as a starter..........hence the talk of an edge guy at #12. It is very likely that four of the guys I mentioned above are gone at #12 (that's how fast the good ones go), but even then I imagine two of Sweat/Polite/Burns are there, so the value is still solid At #30 with the often-injured Bulaga the only viable RT on the roster (and with him unlikely to return after his contract expires after 2019), there is a big need there as well. You have already lost several good OTs, by #30, but several solid prospects should still remain before you take the big drop to the next tier. If you see any of Cody Ford, Andre Dillard, Jawaan Taylor and maybe Greg Little available, you need to think hard about this position, because the value for OTs will not continue much longer. you might get Cajuste or Risner or D.Edwards at #44, but by #75 it's unlikely any remain, and if they are, then they will almost certainly have serious flaws. Despite there being no guarantees a draft pick at OT could play guard for one year (before moving to RT in 2020), it IS a solid plan to go into 2019 with, and allows the move to RT earlier, if Bulaga goes down. As you can see, this year there are almost certain to be good edge prospects at #12 and good OTs at #30, that can be acquired without any big-reach pick. To me it is unlikely all the viable prospects are gone at these picks..........if they are, then by all means trade your pick, or pick a different position group, but I doubt all those I named for #12 and #30 are gone. I'm not suggesting the Packers reach deep down their board for an early-pick premium position, I'm saying that in this draft the value at premium positions (imo) seems to be there, pass rush at #12 and OT at #30. My scenario isn't the only possible one, and the Packers choices depend on how their board is set and how the draft unfolds. If they went DT at #12, I'd think of it as just another way to generate pass rush, and the value there is probably the best of all position groups. My current favourite scenario happens to be DT J.Simmons (#12), OT A.Dillard (#30), DL/Edge C.Omenihu (#44), but i'm no scout. Do I like the TEs available this year, yes. Do the Packers need a safety, yes. Would they be a better team with Devin White taken at ILB at #12, yes. BUT (and it's a big butt ) each pick there means one less pick for key positions of need, so you must do the prioritisation dance that gives you new blood where you need it, of a quality that impacts the team..........it is inevitable that some positions groups will be addressed later in the draft, the Packers choice is which ones get the short stick and which ones get the sexy higher picks. I'd be happier chasing for a safety, TE, OG and RB in rounds 3/4/5 than I would be looking to get a starter-level guy at Edge or OT that late.......and if we get an Edge and OT in round one, we'd still have a 2nd round pick for one of those positions - I'd go with Safety first (heh), TE second, Guard third and RB 4th, but of course it all depends on who is available when they pick.
  6. Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

    That's a nice idea @Packerraymond
  7. Positional Value Study

    Confidence intervals are hard to determine, but give another important facet to deciding who to draft. The popular current expression of confidence, is high/low ceiling, and high/low floor.
  8. 2019 Draft Discussion

    This is kind of my thinking as well. I think the only exception for me would be a play making slot type receiver with special teams ability that falls. If a guy like Andy Isabella fell to the 4th round or so, id be ok with that. I would probably pass on the 5th round, 6'5 receiver that normally splits out wide. The Mizzou homer in me would be ok with Emanuel Hall if he fell late in the draft Slide that to include round three and I'd agree. It's a deep year for WR this year. Beyond that I'd agree. It applies especially to slot receivers (where I'd even go to round 4 being worthwhile). Of course if the receiver is a dangerous returner, then he is viable later.
  9. Positional Value Study

    I recall a TT comment from years back (and he never gave away much), that suggested he gave a 'small bonus' to a position of need, when calculating players values in the draft. In TT's inimitable way, he is supporting what you say here, ie need does play a part..........which is kind of obvious to my mind, but there are others that are pure BPA enthusiasts.
  10. Positional Value Study

    I thoroughly enjoyed that read @rcon14 The only downside to it (for me) is that it isn't helping me very much in my current dilemma, whether to take a DL (3tech penetrator) or an edge rusher at #12. Both have high positional value (as dictated by salary) and both can affect the pass rush, which the Packers could certainly use. There are different ways to view the fragment of your piece that interests me. One interesting way to 'tie-break' is to look at who got the snaps at the positions last year, who is likely to be on the roster this coming year and who will replace the holes created. That tends to favour getting edge rushers, where the incumbent talent for 2019 is likely to be weaker than on the DL, but my instinct is that the chance for a great DL is better than a great edge guy (and instincts have no value in calculation based data, it is just my perception based on nothing concrete. Other things also tie into trying to make this choice, like drafting to a strength making a good unit much tougher to stop. As always, in the final analysis, it's about the level of talent and how it is developed, in other words, "draft well and be rewarded". Apologies for a highjacking of your thread for something that connects only peripherally, back to other posters comments.
  11. Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

    @Shanedorf From draft discussions (posted Saturday) Click on the link next to my avatar picture to read.
  12. CW21's 2019 NFL Draft Thread (Bring On Questions)

    @CWood21 I have a question about who to draft when your aim is getting pressure on the QB. The obvious route to better pass rush (in the 3-4) is getting tall (6'3-6'6") fast linebackers, who ideally can bend well around the corner, push the defender back into the QB, hold up against big guys when the other side runs your way, and have some coverage ability as well. Not surprisingly, this is an almost impossible combination to achieve, so any prospects available are usually deficient in one or more of these areas. Also guys who have even some of these traits go very, very quickly. This is a very good year indeed for pass rushers, but by the time my team (the Packers) get their first pick at #12, Bosa, J.Allen, Ferrell and one of Sweat/Polite could well be gone. If you count R.Gary as an edge guy as well, then five edge guys are gone at #12. There should still be two decent guys left (one of Sweat/Polite and B.Burns), but is this the optimum pick ? If you choose improve the D line instead, going for penetrating 3techs who can apply direct pressure (and it's also a tremendous year for the DL), then Q.Williams, is gone for sure. Probably Ed Oliver too, and if you count Gary as an edge guy, you can equally count him here. Simmons might be gone, but a line has to be drawn somewhere So it would seem a likely case is that five edge guys and/or three DLs go, seven players in total (if you don't count Gary twice). It's a given that at least one CB and QB go in the first 11 picks, probably an OT and an ILB as well. That is all the 11 picks that come before the Packers pick. Finally we get to the question. Taking all this into account, how would you prioritise your picks ? For me, It's Oliver (barely) over Ferrell, then Simmons, Wilkins, Sweat, Gary, Polite, Burns. I think Oliver/Ferrell/Simmons/Wilkins would fit just fine with the Packers (though taking a degree of creativity), Gary could be good, but needs more work to fit than the first three. I went Sweat/Polite/Burns in that order, as I prefer somewhat bigger bodies at edge. Sweat and Wilkins were pretty much equal in my eyes, while Gary was as far down as he was because of fit, rather than overall talent.
  13. 2019 Draft Discussion

    I THINK my mindset is fairly similar, though I'm not looking at Greedy Williams at #12. There have been too many CBs in recent years, imo. My current thinking is to improve pressure by improving the D line. I'm currently obsessing over penetrating 3tech type DTs, Jeffery Simmons, Christian Wilkins, or, if we are really lucky, Ed Oliver (failing all of them, Jerry Tillery at #30). All are DTs with bust the pocket capability. Coupled with M.Daniels and K.Clark they could be a real headache to opponents. I AM looking at edge guys, but mainly (at #44) at Texas DL Charles Omenihu (6'5", 275), who has played all along the line from DT to a wide 9 position (hopefully, a better Nick Perry). My fallback there would be Chase Winovich. Omenihu + (eg) Oliver + Clark + Daniels looks like it could give us lots of pressure. there are several edge guys in this region, but he is my favourite Currently, I'm looking at DT, OT, edge, with the first three picks, then free safety, which might require a move up from our third round pick, for Chauncey Gardner-Johnson or (if very lucky) Juan Thornhill. Bleacher Report big board currently lists these two guys at #63 and #60, Drafttek at #112 and #38, but others (like the Draft Network's several guys) have them going earlier, so this might be a pipe dream at #75. Failing this, my fallback is Fresno State's Mike Bell, with a later pick
  14. 2019 Draft Discussion

    I've been having a bit of a think about who to draft at #12 (assuming we do draft there). For months I have been rather locked in to getting a pass rusher like Sweat, Polite, or even Ferrell if he slipped. i am beginning to think in a different direction. If you had asked me a while back about getting a DL early, I would have laughed. Sure it's a great year for them, but with as many needs as the Packers have, you can make do with Clark, and Daniels as the studs, Lancaster and M.Adams as improving big bodies (possibly making Muhammed Wilkerson expendable) and Lowry as a good-enough -to-get-by-on guy. However, if it is true that Pettine likes his pressure to come from inside the line at least as much as from the outside, I'm re-thinking that no DL at #12 stance. Here is a for-example scenario. The Packers get Ed Oliver or Rashan Gary or Christian Wilkins at #12. At #30 they get the best OT they can find, as by pick 44 the best are gone. At #44 they get a later-tier edge guy, one of Zach Allen, Jaylon Ferguson, Oshane Ximines, Brian Burns (lots of variation on where he goes), or my favourite, Charles Omenihu. A front with (for example) Wilkins, Clark, Daniels, with Omenihu and probably still Nick Perry, is on paper a pretty good group to shove that pocket right back into the QBs face, or just burst through it. If you throw in occasional shifty blitzers like Josh Jones or Oren Burks, the Packers could give another team fits. Given how much pressure Pettine generated with not much to work with, this could transform the Packers in terms of pressure applied and significantly help the defensive backfield in coverage. There is always a downside whoever you pick, in this case it is waiting until after pick 44 for a free safety, and the Packers need one badly. I'm a fan of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Florida) or Mike Bell (Fresno St.). if either is there in round three (currently pick 75).
  15. Aaron Rodgers Depreciation Thread

    +1 @Shanedorf All too many internet opinions are initiated by nothing more than a gut feeling................. and then facts that support that are chosen over ones that don't fit into one's prejudices. These forums are pretty decent, because when the sillier presumptions hit the eyeballs of many of the better posters here, they go off and find X and O play diagrams/stats/quotes/articles that challenge the original posters muddy thinking. There are many sites that are far more forgiving of bias, than this one.
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