If Davis comes back soon i think he make the 53 because, as Chili said, his ST usefulness is high and that is what you want from back-end receivers (and his good showing as a WR this year helps cement that). However, the longer Davis is out, the better things are for Shepherd, who is younger, is showing very nicely as a WR, and while I don't know if he can be a gunner, he certainly has return ability and experience. while Davis is in no way old (4th year) Shepherd's youth might feature as a tie-breaker. You've heard the old chestnut, the best ability is availability.
It would be difficult to cut Kumerow with what he has shown in camp, because if you cut a guy who played that well, what is the point of a training camp, it would send a bad message to others.
The only way Moore makes the team is if the Packers put potential way ahead of production. I don't see Moore making the squad because so many other receivers have shone, but the coaches may be so reluctant to cut a 4th round pick in their second year, they ignore what has been shown on the field.
If Davis makes the team, then Shepherd should be a lock for the PS. Moore might stick on the PS, though I feel it is likely he is be taken by another team as a roll of the dice. Lazard, who has also looked good, is a classic PS guy, imo.
For me they rank as follows. 1.Adams (a true no.1 guy)/2.MVS (part of his high ranking is potential)/3.Allison (slot guy)/4.Kumerow (played himself onto the team, could easily be ranked 5 or 6)/5. ESB (ranked mostly on potential, hasn't had a bad camp but hasn't stood out)) 6.Davis (if fit soon)/7.Shepherd (rank him 6 if Davis isn't fit soon, could also replace Allison in the slot, if required )/8. Moore (purely on potential)/9. Lazard (looks like a good PS candidate).
I think the Packers keep 6 this year, and in the order of priority mentioned above, unless injury thins the ranks, for example Davis (who is injured) might quickly be supplanted by Shepherd, or if Allison gets injured, Shepherd has another chance at making the roster as a slot receiver replacement (I don't know who would be the favoured slot guy, between ESB and Shepherd).
Questions about the ranking ?
A) Is Kumerow ahead of ESB ? I ranked him above ESB, I had to decide on good production versus reasonable production + youth, + high upside. You could also view his ranking relative to Davis, either way - Kumerow the better receiver, Davis the more valuable ST guy.
B) Will Moore be claimed off the PS ? Who knows............I'm guessing yes he will be.
C) How long before Shepherd ranks above Davis ? My guess is that if Davis doesn't play next week, and Shepherd plays well, then he suppplants him.
D) Does Allison deserve to be locked into the no.3 spot ? I need some evaluators better than I am, to answer that. I recall Andy Herman putting him as a solid 3rd, a few days back.
E) Does Lazard's elite height (6'5") and solid showing in camp mean he should be on the 53. Too many good guys above him and many of them almost as tall, so it's the PS for him.
F) Potential..........it's a thing, it has value, but it isn't the only thing and doesn't outweigh everything else.