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  1. I want 2 edge rushers in this draft

    This is what I'm referring to. Statistically the expected approximate value of a player pretty much flatlines around 150ish through 175ish until the end of the draft. Obviously aV is not perfect and there are extreme outliers and mostly for the reason you suggest but at that point you're pretty much getting lucky (If you actually think a guys going to be really good you're not waiting that long to get him, i.e. if the Patriots knew what they had with Brady or the Seahawks knew what they had in Sherman etc etc they would have taken them with their first pick not waited, that's luck not skill) and the more cracks at it you have the more likely you are to get lucky. IMO at that point you're basically throwing darts blindfolded and therefore it's best to have as many darts as possible.
  2. I want 2 edge rushers in this draft

    The difference in expected value is almost nonexistent between 5th round picks through UDFAs. I'd almost constantly trade back from about pick #150 on to get as many picks as possible as late as possible. They're basically all just loterry scratch off tickets at that point. None is more valuable than the next so the more you have the better your odds of getting lucky are. I'm surprised noone tries this except for the fact that if I know this then everyone in the NFL obviously knows this so in theory it's a sound strategy but I'm sure it's pretty impossible to actually accomplish.
  3. All Things Wrestling Thread

    It's obviously Vince's terrible idea. I was discussing it with a coworker last night and came up with the brilliant idea that with the XFL coming up soon maybe Vince didn't want anything that would remind viewers of the NFL so Raiders was obviously a no go. I was very proud of myself after explaining it to him for having figured out some sort of semi-logical hypothesis. That lasted about 3 seconds until I saw the disappointed look on his face as he shook his head at me. LOL
  4. 2019 Draft Discussion

    But what it really means is that, much like the guy who has to argue everything on the interwebz, he's just too dumb to realize his yapping has no actual affect on what's happening.
  5. 2019 Draft Discussion

    I was literally just thinking about interwebz "arguements" on my way to work today. I walk past the same three dogs almost every day. They're all behind fences and while two of them go about their business as I pass one of them gets up, rushes at me, and barks his head off. Its like, there's a six foot wooden fence between us buddy and this happens every day. You cant do actually do anything about it, relax!
  6. 2019 Draft Discussion

    I really like Porter Gustin when healthy. Unfortunately I feel like he's too maxed out and to much of a weight room warrior to count on being consistently healthy. He's built himself up to a place I feel is unsustainable on his frame. He's going to be a beast like 8 games a season for a few years i bet.
  7. This Aint Packers Talk v69

    As a professional cook this statement has gotten me probably more flack in kitchens than anything else but..... I like instant mashed potatoes more than the real thing. Sorry, not sorry.
  8. This Aint Packers Talk v69

    My favorite thing about Colorado winters is getting to respond to these types of posts. Reel feel of 82° on Tuesday afternoon. Real feel of -8° and 5" of snow Wednesday evening. Snow was melted on the sidewalks when I woke up and I didn't have to shovel Thursday morning.
  9. I definitely ran the numbers awhile ago for a thread on QBs and I'm pretty sure the only time a team has won the Superbowl with a defense that wasn't top ten in PPG during the regular season or held its opponents to what would have been equivalent to the top ten for the season during the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens. They were close but like 11th or 12th for both IIRC.
  10. MFW comparing Burns to two recent EDGE prospects with very similar size and combine #s is "absurd" but comparing him to a DE from 15 years ago who was 20lbs heavier and .2 seconds slower because they went to the same school makes sense to someone.
  11. Packers Pre-Draft Visits Thread

    The local visit thing always seemed like it was extremely unfair to me. A team like Miami would get a distinct and unfair advantage over a team like Minnesota. Being in a recruiting hot bed (So Cal, Texas, South Florida) or having a high quality college team nearby would make it much more valuable to some teams versus others.
  12. Packers 2019 Threshold Players

    That was off the top of my head. nfldraftscout used to have both combine and pro day numbers for just about everyone but I don't know if it's shut down or something is going on with it. Started not working (for me at least) a couple months ago. Anybody know what's going on? I just googled "jermichael Finley pro day" and there is an article with his pro day 40 at 4.65 half way down the page.
  13. Packers 2019 Threshold Players

    Definitely ran under at his pro day.
  14. Cole Madison reports to Packers Activities Today

    I'd guess like 99% of people over the age of thirty would consider THEMSELVES "kids" at the age of 22 or 23. I certainly do. I don't think it's disrespectful or meant to be. Do you mind me asking how old you are?
  15. This Is Rival Talk v1.0

    Former Packer and AAF all time great Charles Johnson signed with the Eagles. With a decent season (29 catches and 3TDs) he can make me pay up on a random 3 year old interwebz wager. His career stats vs. DA17's first two seasons.