Jump to content

y2lamanaki

Moderators
  • Content Count

    18,900
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

y2lamanaki last won the day on August 10 2019

y2lamanaki had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

2,263 All-Pro

About y2lamanaki

Favorites

  • NFL Team
    49ers
  • MLB Team
    White Sox, Giants
  • NBA Team
    Magic, Warriors
  • NHL Team
    Sharks
  • College Team
    West Virginia, Florida, Notre Dame
  • Players
    Frank Gore

Other Information

  • Location
    Lancaster, PA
  • Job
    Digital Marketing
  • Hobbies
    Writing/Performing comedy

Recent Profile Visitors

1,292 profile views
  1. I mean at this point, he really only needs to play a full game and he's just as useful in 2020, no? Hope everyone is well! Don't know why this is the 2020 season thread I decided was worthy of a y2 cameo, but here it is 😃
  2. I think it's a shame for two reasons, because I think I corrected the things you accuse me of in that post through the entirety of the argument, and I did my best to add some language that would hint that there was no negative tone intended in my post - meaning you jumped to some pretty wild conclusions without moving through it. You're reading far too much into it. Somewhere in "no disrespect intended" in my original post in this conversation and "with all due respect" in one of my replies, I suppose you found disrespect and no respect due. I cannot begin to imagine why when we've been largely in agreement on football over the years and in which we've spent hours conversing with one another through podcast creation, giving you plenty of firsthand knowledge of my general tone of voice. I'm lost here. I'm especially lost, because YOU first called MY valuation odd and excessive, which seems like a point I should be taking up with you - especially as you had quoted the post where I specifically typed out that I intended you no disrespect so that you would take none. After all - why would I intend any? We're talking about opinions on the value of 6th and 7th round picks, certainly there would be something more valuable to argue with. This forum is way too mercurial and I'll never understand it.
  3. You agree he wouldn't play in 2020, right? So how are you going to trade him in 2021 (the final year of his contract and last year you have control over his contract) for a better pick than what you used to trade for him in 2020? And if he doesn't beat out Garoppolo for the starting job, what does it matter if the coaches train him up and make him better?
  4. I'm not sure you're convincing me that I am. I want to use 6th/7th picks in the way our GM/HC are good at using 6th/7th round picks and have had proven success in doing so - on players who make roster contributions. You wish to use a 6th/7th on a guy we hope never plays a snap. In this way, and in this way only, you have told me I'm overvaluing picks because I prefer A over B and not B over A. No? We picked Will Sutton up off the street in 2018 and Jullian Taylor made the roster over him. We picked up Niles Scott off the street in 2018 and Jullian Taylor made the roster over him. Last year we picked up Jay Bromley off the street and Jullian Taylor made the roster over him. Jeremiah Valoaga, Damontre Moore, Kevin Givens, Jordan Thompson - all off the street and off the roster with Taylor on it. Once Taylor went on IR, we brought someone off the street to replace him. That was the order of things. And certainly someone advocating messing up the QB room over $3M is not going to advocate bringing in a veteran player over the 7th round pick salary of Jullian Taylor, correct? Similar to the above, we understand that Justin Skule made the roster over Andrew Lauderdale, Najee Toran, Joshua Garnett, and Ross Reynolds, and while you could argue that some of them are not tackles, certainly if Skule needed to be replaced, he'd be replaced correct? And that the first player chosen to replace a tackle was Justin Skule, meaning he had earned that position over Daniel Brunskill, another tackle still on the roster. Yes he was replaced, absolutely. He was a 6th round pick who was forced into starting. But - having experienced worse tackles than Justin Skule at much higher paychecks, again I'm quite fine with keeping his low 6th round rookie contract around as the 8th offensive linemen. Guys like that have spaces on roster. Better to pay Justin Skule the $540k we paid him then to pay double that on a worse player like J'Marcus Webb as the Dolphins did. Yes, we both made arguments that Exum should have made the team. I acknowledge I am an imperfect being capable of mistakes - I also said on the podcast that the 49ers wouldn't lose again after the Ravens game, for example. In either case, Marcell Harris is still on the team and Antone Exum is right where we left him. They are important pieces. In case you haven't paid attention to the last like 15 years of 49ers football (I hope you understand this as the lighthearted joke it's meant to be - obviously I know you've paid attention), the people that make the 53-man roster are not the same 53 that will be there at the end of the year. The same 22 starters won't be the same 22 to start all the games. Players get injured and others need to play in their place. This team made the Super Bowl, not because of it's 22 starters, but because of its impressive depth that withstood the wear and tear of a football season. Are they easily replaceable? Year 3 for Taylor, Harris, and James, and yet all three appear ready to stick around in 2020. But could you replace them easily with other 6th and 7th round picks? Absolutely! So long as you don't trade them stupidly for a player who will never play a snap on the team when you already have multiple players who fit that job description and already know the system better. What I most don't understand - how you can so readily advocate saving $3M by trading for Josh Rosen and not understand that you will spend more to replace 6th and 7th round contracts - among the smallest in the sport - with players who will make more. And certainly $3M is greater than the $300k difference in some cases - no arguments there - but you need to build a roster with a lot of players making those $610k, $540k contracts, but that becomes hard to do if you are always willing to trade those picks for players on higher contracts. And you have always been willing to do so because you don't see the value in 6th and 7th round picks - you see them only as interchangeable bottom-of-the-barrel contributors (and with real luck, maybe a gem is uncovered). And you're not wrong - Marcell Harris is likely interchangeable with any other 6th round safety Shanahan and Lynch could find. But you need a 6th round pick to select him. You see Jullian Taylor, Richie James, Marcell Harris, Justin Skule, and Charlie Woerner as players no different from their nameless veteran counterparts (as you suggested with Harris and Cyprien), yet haven't done the math to add the extra salaries for five veteran counterparts, at which point now you might be adding $1.5M-$2M to a pressed against the cap team. Justin Skule, for example, does not currently count against our cap because he's not one of our top 51 salaries. Hroniss Grasu, who will not make the team, currently does count against our cap as one of our top 51 salaries. Put yet another way - the value of a 6th round pick and a $540k contract to the team is that maybe they can replace someone like Jullian Taylor in 2021, who by then will be making over $900k. That might save only $300k, sure, but if you instead sacrifice that 6th round pick for a $1M contract, you are actually losing $460k in value and space. Put one final way - the value of 6th and 7th round picks isn't of the 6th and 7th round picks themselves - it's in them collectively. Because when you consistently find players like those mentioned above (as our front office has proven excellent at doing), you are keeping the bottom of your roster inexpensive and not replacing them with slightly higher priced veterans or slightly worse undrafted free agents (I think our front office has shown that they will keep the top 53, regardless of whom those players are or how they happened to arrive on the roster, hence the 6th and 7th round picks above were deemed superior to the UDFAs released on cutdown day). (I don't speak to the accuracy of the exact figures above, but I do speak to the accuracy of the conceptual nature of the difference between rookie and veteran salaries.) Sure. Here's the debate: Kyle Williams. Now everyone understands the value of Richie James, and there should be no debate. Truly - not being Kyle Williams is the best attribute for a returner. Spelled out: Richie James doesn't fumble. Simply not turning the ball over does much more for our average starting field position than an extra 2 yards average per return on the 20 kick returns we take out of the endzone per season (he's top 10 in yards/punt return, so I imagine nobody faults him there). You missed my point, but that's because it was very poorly stated so I can't blame you in any way. In fact, I can see that you are already actually in agreement (which I expected you would agree with this point if it was properly explained), so that's a nice starting point, haha. To put what I was trying to say another way - imagine an alternate 2020 where there is an offseason, and imagine in this offseason, we have coaches who get to examine the players from May through July as is generally the case, but was not the case this year. As you noted, if there was a situation where the team got to see Deebo, Aiyuk, and even just Taylor on the field together, they may have easily come to the determination that Kendrick Bourne would be at best the 4th option. To add Dante Pettis into the mix, simply complicates whether or not Bourne might always be #4 among the wide receivers. Even without a full offseason, there are some who thought Jauan Jennings had a chance to sneak onto the roster, but maybe with an offseason, he'd have made a case to be worthy of making an NFL roster. At that point, certainly we can see the value in 7th round pick Jauan Jennings making $610k over Kendrick Bourne making $3.25M, correct? We both agree that Bourne is a nice depth piece in a deep receiving corps - that's where he's settling in - but if we can replace that with a 7th round rookie, we do - right? And we understand that if we had traded that 7th round pick last year, we'd have no expectation that Jauan Jennings would even be an option to replace Bourne, correct? --- I suppose in the end, it's not even so much looking at trading a 6th for Josh Rosen in a vacuum, where conceptually the idea doesn't affect me much, and if given no other context, I'd say 'whatever' and let it go. But given the context of being a team that has demonstrated the value of quality depth, given the context of a team up against the cap and in need of cheap labor that doesn't lower the quality of the depth on the team, given the context of this being a team that has traded a number of picks in recent years to obtain players for starting roles (all of which - Ford, Sanders, Williams - I have supported for filling vital needs on the team) - I can't advocate getting rid of more cheap labor to find a player who we hope never plays a snap, when that player doesn't ALSO notably upgrade the position. And I guess one final point - where is everyone getting this $1M figure from? I found the number $2,079,796 for this season and $2,879,694 for 2021 at the following link. On Sportrac, that 2020 projection was off by less than $100k as his current cap hit is $2,169,796. If $2.1M would indeed be what we have to pay, let me note that would be an INCREASE in nearly $1M (assuming we cut Beathard and not Mullens, it's even greater if it's the other way) in 2020. And Sportrac has a number that is once again, just around $100k higher at $3,049,694 in 2021. https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/3/4/18251017/how-much-salary-cap-space-would-be-used-in-a-trade-for-josh-rosen Given these numbers, wouldn't the difference between Mullens on a 2nd round tender in 2021 ($3,259,000) and Rosen in 2021 ($3,049,694) be exactly $209,306? Because if that's the case, the answer is no I don't want to trade a 6th round pick for $209,306 in savings and for a possibly worse backup QB situation that lasts exactly one year. I'm feeling I could have saved myself a lot of typing if I had looked this up sooner.
  5. Sure, player for player would affect my thoughts no differently than free agency would. I didn't mention it as I assumed that would be assumed. Though that requires a team to trade a young quarterback for a player we don't need and not receive a pick in return, which is uncommon though not unusual. I'm not overvaluing 6th/7th round picks. I perfectly understand the value of bringing up players in a system like DJ Jones (starting NT) and Richie James (steady KR/PR), same as I understand the importance of Justin Skule (our swing tackle), Jullian Taylor (DL rotation/depth), and Marcell Harris (special teams/safety depth). This says nothing of the positive reviews of Woerner either. And I understand that those contributions, however minor, are still more than what a backup QB brings. I'm finding a franchise with a franchise QB, a backup very comfortable in the system, and a talent acquisition team with proven aptitude at finding meaningful contributions in those picks. You want to save $3M, through which there are a variety of ways one could do that. Woerner's cap hit as a 6th round pick is $610k, is it not? You don't see the value in letting a Kendrick Bourne (over $3M this year and might reasonably make that much per year on a second contract) walk and slotting in someone at that salary? Inevitably we have to replace people. I'm sorry if I don't see the brilliance in replacing people AND losing draft picks AND not even getting any contributions. Also, sure you could re-sign Josh Rosen, but you could do the same thing with Mullens in the offseason. Nothing says we MUST sign him to a RFA tender. We have a cap wizard. Use him. Now we saved the same amount, and don't need to lose a draft pick to attempt to rebuild a former first round pick about to join team #3 in year #3.
  6. I mean, AJ McCarron signed a $4M contract, I have to imagine Josh Rosen would have at least that value, no? Otherwise, again, why even re-sign him? And if he shows he's a quarterback closer to Alex Smith than a bust, he'll definitely cost more than that. And with all due respect, Kaden Smith is the lone draft pick in the Kyle Shanahan era to not make it to a second offseason with the team (Joe Williams and Tim Harris being the only other two yet to make the roster), and even their later picks have been consistently able to contribute. I would much prefer they make their own choice on a player. If Rosen was a free agent, I understand the switch if you can still pay him that low on a deal with more time. Otherwise, I don't see the appeal in paying the price of a draft pick on what is almost certainly a one-year rental on a backup who never sees the field.
  7. I'd much prefer to have a UDFA backing up Garoppolo in 2021 than give up any draft picks on what essentially would be a one-year rental (again, assuming a 2020 as 3rd QB) on a backup QB that would cost more in 2022 than Mullens would in 2021, and feasibly might never take a snap. Either Rosen or a UDFA would be a sign of losing anyway. I just see no reason in dropping a draft pick on renting a backup who is not remotely needed. A QB drafted with said 6th has the bonus of potentially being around 4x as long. And nobody says we need to use the 6th anyway. A late 3rd was where we found Beathard, and even Beathard would suffice. In that way the 6th can be whatever we want it to be.
  8. No disrespect intended, but trading for Josh Rosen makes no logical sense. Not even considering what the compensation would be (even a 7th round pick 12 years from now would be illogical), trading for Josh Rosen's contract is foolish. Not because of finances, but the years left. We acknowledge Rosen would be very unlikely to pick up the system starting in September, which means all of this year - the third year of his contract - is a wash. Even if Jimmy were to go down, we would prefer Mullens to enter as the backup due to his 3 years in the system. So we would be giving up assets under the hope that Josh Rosen would be an improvement over Nick Mullens in 2021, while still sinking or swimming with Jimmy G at the helm. There's no way we would pick up a 5th year option on a backup QB, so he'd very likely be elsewhere in 2022. So what's really the point? If we need to save money on the backup QB, almost certainly we would get more value out of just drafting a QB with the pick we would trade for him. If Rosen is cut and becomes a free agent? Much different conversation. Then I'm merely ambivalent to adding him.
  9. I'll have to think on this. All I know is I'm definitely trying to save coronavirus for one of the later weeks.
  10. Mike Person and Ben Garland got us to the Super Bowl, and at one point a line of Justin Skule, Laken Tomlinson, Weston Richburg, Mike Person, and Daniel Brunskill ran the table. Kyle's got this. It won't be pretty, but he's got this. There are totally justifiable concerns, but I see a lot of reasons to keep faith.
  11. Here's a fact that is unlikely to be exactly true beyond this season, but is one I happened upon while investigating another crazy stat: If you rank the 25 wide receivers the 49ers have drafted since 1997 (year after T.O.) by career production, Jason Hill is the 7th best pick. I have removed Aiyuk and James from this stat. The original stat, which is also crazy and true - the drafted receiver with second most yards for the 49ers behind Michael Crabtree is Arnaz Battle (since 1997). This is extraordinarily bad.
  12. Exhibit A for the argument "Why you should never count players who have never played a snap as reason not to address that player's position group."
  13. I disagree with you both. I think there was an excellent chance that he made the roster. Deebo might miss a few games, Richie James is injured, Taylor and Hurd are unproven and coming off injury, and Aiyuk and Jennings are rookies of very different pedigrees. The only healthy veterans are currently Kendrick Bourne and Dante Pettis. He had an amazing opportunity to make the roster. His ability to last on the roster the entire season? Well that's another matter entirely.
  14. Hey @oldman9er - I intended this to be the last post, but I wanted to apologize for it. I'm going through stuff and took it out on you passive-aggressively. Not an excuse and I recognize it. It was a big overreaction.
×
×
  • Create New...