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soflbillsfan

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About soflbillsfan

  1. The Josh Rosen Hype / Rumor Train to Buffalo

    Yea cousins is my top choice and production is what a franchise qb we want if any qb we draft what are your expectations 4K+ yards 65-69% completion 25+ td. It is all relative no matter what a franchise qb you go to pay what the going rate is for this year as next year can be over 200 million. As the salary cap goes up the bigger the contracts will get. I get it the bills will likely not land him but I also dont want to see the bills giving up so much to move up. They could have landed someone like Watson this past year and not given up anything. I dont necessarily care about which player they get I just dont want to give up a ton of picks. They can go in to free agency and try someone different that may work out. We all know Case Keenum had a great season and no one expected that. Bills can find someone like that for now and build up the team as they are molding a team for the future by going younger. I just hate to see them go full rebuild by going all in on a rookie who may or may not be on the team 2-3 years from now. We will see in a few weeks when free agency comes and Ill be good with what beane and mcdermott does im not going to be pissed as they proved themselves this year
  2. The Josh Rosen Hype / Rumor Train to Buffalo

    I can try to explain it. Im all for going hard for a franchise qb but by drafting a qb in the 1st rd doesnt necessarily mean he is franchise material. The success rate on getting one is essentially 1 in 10 qbs or 2 in 10 if you want to be generous about it. So giving up 4-5 picks on a qb who is likely to be a franchise guys is 10-20% where you have a better chance of them being a bust. Also this defines the organization on a move like this. If it hits then they are the next Mike Tomlin, Bill Belichec or heck even Marvin Lewis where they stay 10-15 years as HC and then beane at GM. Statistically it going that way are low where there is a greater chance of them becoming a bust which leads the HC and GM out the door with in 2-3 years. Spending money on a top FA that has produced at the prolevel is less riskier and can easily get out of where giving up those draft picks can set a franchise back several years. This is why people argue the risk on putting all your draft picks essentially in one basket and it can fail miserably. Sticking with Tyrod and drafting those other positions like you mentioned I get isnt the right move. I as sure as heck do not want tyrod starting next year but I also dont want the bills to pull a washington and draft the next RG3 where they gave up 3 first round picks for 1 decent season of production. They havent had a chance to build up their team because of that draft, they tried making up for it by paying players to plug holes instead of building through the draft
  3. Off Season moves outside of QB

    I agree with everything you said. I dont necessarily agree with cordy glenn this year simply because the bills will only clear 4.8 mil and have a dead cap of 10 mil but if the trade was worth it yes. I do not want it to be like a Marcell Dareus trade where they just wanted to dump him based on his salary cap. One thing is he finally had surgery on his foot when he should have done it last year and he would have been healthy this year but unfortunately it did not. If keeping him and pushing Dawkins to RT that would be solid as it worked well for 4-5 games this past year. Im good with keeping or trading him. Adding on to saving the cap the bills have over 80 million next year so to free up future cap its really not a huge impact and they could also let him play a full year and trade him next offseason for top dollar as he would show how good he is when healthy.
  4. Off Season moves outside of QB

    Depends on who will be qb if its already answered in free agency and they believe a DT like Vita Vea or LB Roquan Smith can be an instant impact compared to other players in the draft.
  5. Off Season moves outside of QB

    A lot of the topics have been about the QB position, so I though about adding a different thread. I wanted to talk about other positions that may impact the bills future, whether it is extensions, cuts, trades or additions to the roster. Name some and why you think it is a good move. My two extensions that I believe could benefit the bills is Richie Incognito, and Kelvin Benjamin. Yes Richie Incognito had a questionable ending with the slur that may have been said or may have not been said. Either way as fans we do not know what went on however we do know that he performed once again at a pro bowl level and was a solid anchor on the offensive line. With a few penalties he had he still graded out as top talent in the league. Going on 34-35 years old and 1 year left on his contract I think the bills should extend him another year if not 2 and the $7.75 mil cap could reduce and leave some cap space for other signings. Another person I feel is a long term answer on the bills roster is Kelvin Benjamin. Beane didn't spend a 3rd and 7th rd pick to bring in a guy for a year and half. I see him as the bills #1 target and he could get a contract similar to Alshon Jeffrey's which was 4 years 52 million (13 per year) hopefully a 4 year 40 mil would be better but somewhere along those lines can give any qb a massive target and a big red zone threat. Some have mentioned cutting hughes, I do not necessarily agree with that as it doesn't benefit the bills financially this year and the pass rush is so thin that it would be a glaring need. Not going to blame outside factors on why his sack rate went down but having a thin DT squad hurt him as well as the coaching style which McDermotts plays leave minimal blitzing and pass rush which had hughes dropping in coverage can be argued on this. I think another year on bills squad would be wise and if he doesnt perform as well as he is getting paid then next offseason is where you cut him as that will clear up 9-11 million in cap space. I would like to tag the ERFA to those who are allowed to get it including O'leary as they all have been deserved to keep and the price is cheap. I would like to see the bills resign EJ Gaines for the right price, the bills passing d was solid and he played a huge part in that. When he was injured the pass d dropped a bit as Wright was being abused at times. I think a 3 year 20 mil deal would be acceptable anything more then that they may need to find another option. Leonard Johnson is another guy that I think deserves to be re-signed as he played fairly well in the slot and he would likely be cheap 3 years 4-6 million. Bringing in Albert Wilson would be a nice addition to whoever is qb. He ran a 4.37 in his proday so he is fairly quick and could be the deep threat the bills need. He can be had for 3-5 mil a year which is very reasonable. If bills do not go big in FA with QB I would like for the bills to spend big at DT as they can land 2 of these 4 guys. I also believe that Kyle Williams will retire if not then bringing him back for another year around 5-6 mil should get him signed. If not then I would like to see them go after Star, Poe, RIchardson, or Wilkerson (once he is cut which will be likely in the next couple weeks before his guarantees kick in). Setting the trenches was a huge issue for the bills last year especially against the run bringing in 2 of them will allow the bills to shut it down. I really like Wilkerson if he is willing to play he can fill in at any position along the front 4 and dominate as he proved that with the jets, but my concern is he may not have the passion to perform at a high level as I noticed this in 2017 season with the jets. Nigel Bradham would be a nice addition as well as a familiar face in case Preston Brown isn't resigned. Vontae Davis for the right price on a prove it deal could be a nice depth move or even a starter if Ej Gaines isn't resigned to play opposite to White and would be fairly cheap. If Cordy Glenn stays then Dawkins moves back to RT, I can see the bills moving on from Mills. I would like to cut ties with John Miller who was inactive for majority of the season. It started being a healthy scratch but he was injured later in the year during practice which he couldnt recover from. That will clear up almost 2 million. Another guy is Vlad Ducasse at times he was just lost out there and was the biggest liability on the oline, again it will clear up close to 2 million in cap space.
  6. The Josh Rosen Hype / Rumor Train to Buffalo

    Im comparing him to manziel as to the fact they were handed everything in life as they both had a wealthy upbringing and that both were handed the starting QB jobs at college. Rosen was a big time partier and has caused some issues nothing close to domestic violence, but partying and drinking was a big thing for Rosen especially his first year at UCLA. I have no problem drafting rosen if the bills were a top 5 pick but the fact that they have to give up 21 + 22, likely a 2nd this year and a future early pick next year and possibly a player is to much to give up for a guy who may or may not be a franchise qb as I mentioned only 10-20% being generous on the 20% side of first rd qbs become franchise material the rest become busts. That is my issue with the bills picking rosen cause he could easily not have the passion or drive if the pressure on bills fans get to him which will happen with all these draft picks that will be in play. I still dont see why everyone counts the bills out for Cousins simply because of the money, as the bills have it. Look at it from cousins perspective if he is looking to win and get paid the bills offer both of those. The bills organization is stable with a year under the GM and HC belt which they both mesh well. They are coming off a playoff season ending the drought that has been on their backs. They have a top 5 offensive line whether you agree or not both profootballfocus and nfl.com breaks it down to prove they are 2nd and 4th in the league. They have a top 5 running back in shady. They have Clay and Benjamin both solid weapons. Along with 5 draft picks in the first 3 rounds that can benefit cousins. A blue collar HC and GM with the mind set of winning, Cousins comes from a blue collar town and played in the cold his entire career. Bills have one of the best secondaries in the nfl. Denver and Minnesota dont have the capital to offer Cousins a contract without having to lose players. Bills have more cap then both of them this year, next year, and 2020. Denver will be giving up one of their corners, one of their top wr, likely Cj Anderson, and holes on the oline. Plus Elway and Vance dont get along, and one almost got canned. Minnesota has to many upcoming young guys on both sides of the ball that will be needing long term contract so they cant afford to pay them plus why pay someone when keenum took that team to the NFC Championship? Bottom line I rather see the bills miss out on the money then miss out on all those potential players they can have by building the squad up in the draft. Those 5 players will equal one free agent in salary cap 4-6 mil. You give away 3 or more of those picks you have to fill them in free agency which will cost a lot more then that. So even if you argue about 25-30 million a year plus the 4-6 mil in draft picks that feeds 6 positions that can easily start next year at 29-36 million. You take the draft picks slide up to 2 your paying that guy 5.3 million in 2018 according to Trubisky's contract which will likely be more as the year increased, so 24-31 million is left to pay in free agency to fill all those holes you are giving up to move to draft slot 2. Then if rosen is available at 2 and bills take him, and he turns out to be a dud which is 80-90% of failing based on previous qbs drafted in the first rd. Since he failed and the way things go in the nfl if you cannot produce you get canned so Beane and McDermott will be out of a job and the whole process starts all over again like with the 10+ other coaches the bills have had since Marv Levy. With cousins signed it would be a dent in cap space but will not destroy the foundation of the team as they will have a shot to go after a qb in a future draft. I dont know about you but if the bills dropped 3-5 draft picks and possible players for Rosen I sure as heck would be pissed to spend another 1st rd pick on a qb in 2020 draft because they failed on rosen.
  7. The Josh Rosen Hype / Rumor Train to Buffalo

    Not this is a knock on Darnold personally but USC QBs tend to be busts. Outside of Carson Palmer who had a decent career but never put a team on his shoulder to carry them week in and week out. Every other qb that came out has been a complete bust in the NFL. I think Darnold could be there as well. Rosen is a possibility but hearing his issues off the field, showing that he isn't hungry for the game reminds me of Manziel, who both were handed things their entire lives. Coaches and players have said he doesn't want to listen on how to better himself on the field and tends to just walk away with out regard. Allen has the arm strength to toss the deep ball but foot mechanics is something hard to fix and will take more time for him to develop also accuracy is another issue which I think is because of his footwork. Mayfield seems to be the only Qb I would be comfortable having as he is the most QB ready. Outside of his dumb antics that could be fixed with maturing but his game play has been on point. He has worked hard his entire life walked on and started for 2 colleges. He is said to be the 1st and last on and off the field as well as the gym. With that said it seems like giving up a ton of picks to move up to get one guy to me isn't worth it. I think the bills should focus on free agency and build the team up via draft with the picks they have. Maybe swing for Rudolph in the 2nd rd or Lamar in the 3rd rd which I believe is where those 2 guys should get drafted. Reaching for one of those 2 in the 1st rd is just as bad as moving up. All in all I would much rather pay Kirk Cousins. 5 years 125 million (85 mil guaranteed 75 in the first 3 years) is where I think he would be happy with if he truly believes that being a contender is more important of getting paid. 1st year 15 mill, 2nd year 30 mil, 3rd year 30 mil, 4th year 25 mil and 5th year 25 mil. The bills will have 85 million in free cap in 2019 before letting guys like Jerry Hughes or Cordy Glenn, 2020 they have projected 140 million again doesnt reflect the 2 biggest contracts on the books. Bills will have 25 million left in cap space after signing him and cutting tyrod which can allow them to bring in a couple more important pieces to start right away plus the 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.
  8. What Do YOU Want to do at QB?

    You mention a 6% success rate in 2nd round but the success rate in the 1st round isnt that much higher, its between 10-20% and thats being generous. With that said both Lamar and Allen are extremely raw and will likely need time and may not develop to what people expect.
  9. What Do YOU Want to do at QB?

    This is one reason why I do not want the bills to go qb in the draft especially trading up. Everyone is basing him off of potential but not signs of immediate impact. If the bills are looking to give the farm to move up they sure as heck better come away with a guy who can start week 1 cause the bills will be at full rebuild mode if he doesnt and losing all those picks hoping he catches on early will hurt them just look at how the sammy watkins trade impacted them and that was only a fraction of what the bills will have to give up to get one of these 4 top qbs. Media fixates on these QB prospects and hypes them up but in the long run hurting their careers because the team that drafts these guys high are pressured to start them as soon as possible and majority cant come in playing like Andrew Luck did as they need time to learn at the pro level and correct their weaknesses like footwork which takes time. I remember the year when the bills drafted Ej Manuel, everyone (media) had Geno Smith, Ej Manuel, Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib hyped up as possibly all going top 10 and that panned out horribly. Not comparing this years prospects to them just stating that everyone (media) gets the fans all drooling over these guys and they aren't who we all want them to be. I rather bring in a sure fire qb like Cousins who has proven he can produce at the top level and then build around him through the draft. Everyone says that it will cost a fortune but having a qb who ends up being a franchise qb will want double that in 4 years so no matter what in the long term some qb will be getting paid if the bills are correct with this offseason. So why not be a contender now by paying Cousins, build up the team and when those draft picks are due for an extension the bills will have the space to do it as cousins massive contract, majority of it will be paid off by the end of year 3 of his 5 year deal. To me it is all relative whether you pay a qb now or later but I prefer now as I want to see the bills be a contender in 2018.
  10. Vontae Davis Visiting the Bills

    I wonder if he is going to replace EJ Gaines or fill in as depth and replace Shareece Wright
  11. What Do YOU Want to do at QB?

    We don't know if browns want him so if they don't take him then it comes down to what they are going to give up? if it involves three 1st rd picks I rather not make the move. Glenn could possibly be a trade piece for Giants as they need to strengthen that oline up for Eli. I would be okay with giving up 21 or 22 this year a 2nd rd pick and next years 1st for him. Anything more then that they should move on and force Giants to draft him. If the bills do end up drafting rosen then they should look at keeping tyrod but extend him another year to make the cap more manageable and once rosen is set to start let Tyrod walk.
  12. JMillzz21's First GM Mock

    I am not sure what bills fans expectations are in a QB but if a guy can post those stats which only Drew Bledsoe reached 4,000 yards in a season as a bill while this guy is averaging it each year isn't considered a game changer then I do not know what everyone is expecting. Im sorry but there is a better chance of getting a qb that ends up being the next EJ Manuel then the next Aaron Rodgers. Just look at what has turned out for these QBs since 2010 Draft in the first round: 2010: Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford, Tim is out of the league. Sam Bradford best year was 2010 3800 yds and 20 touchdowns, with injuries and lack of talent Sam has bounced around the league and is incapable of being a franchise qb. 2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert. Cam came out and made it to a superbowl and has been a franchise qb, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert have washed up and done nothing in their careers. 2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Brandon Weeden, and Ryan Tannehill. Weeden has been a massive bust and is back up after a disastrous career in Cleveland. RG3 didn't fit the NFL and got injured and never recovered from that. Luck has been a good QB but with injuries he may never be the same after missing 2 years worth of football. Ryan Tannehill has been average at best and will likely get his last chance this year after coming off an ACL injury. 2013: Ej Manuel, you know how this ended up. 2014: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater. Blake Bortles is the only thing holding back Jacksonville from being a superbowl contender, he is not a franchise qb. Johnny Manziel was another complete disaster for Cleveland. Teddy Bridgewater is still unclear after his disastrous leg injury. He may or may not be a franchise qb. 2015: Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota. Winston injury clearly plagued him this year. Marcus Mariota has shown glimpses of being good but mostly has been a disaster. 2016: Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. It is to soon to see if they are franchise material, with Goff having a horrible rookie season but moving forward with a new HC made him elevate his playing in 2017. Wentz has shown signs of greatness but injury showed that the team was able to be a superbowl champ with out him. That being said the chances of landing a qb in the 1st rd that is a franchise qb is about 10-20% successful. So giving up multiple picks to move up for that small of a chance is tough. I rather pay kirk cousins which the bills have a ton of cap space to do it in 2019-2020 to have a guy for 5 years signed which they can also give him another contract after that if he continues the production he is having now. The bills will then have 5 draft picks which 2 of them will be signed under 5 years and the other 3 under 4 years where they are getting paid rookie contracts and a higher success rate at their position then at qb. Yes Kirk may cost 25-30 mil a year there is no question about that but think about taking 3-4 of those 5 picks this year not to mention next year to move up to #2 or #3 and land their qb whether it is darnold, mayfield, rosend or allen. They have to fill those holes in free agency at other positions so landing a capable DT this offseason like Star, Poe, Richardson will range from 8-11 mil. Going after another DT as both are needs will cost probably the same if not a bit less. Then going in and paying a MLB that can cost 5-10 mil depending on the person they get. RG since the market is slim they will end up paying someone 5-7 mil a year. Thats just 4 positions and those guys make up the 30 million that it will cost for the next 4-5 years. To me I think paying a guy at the most important position in the NFL the 30 million would be worth it and then drafting those positions that I mentioned for rookie contracts and being an immediate contender in the AFC East then wait 2-3 years to see if any of those qbs can turn in to a franchise qb and may or may not reach that production that Cousins already has met.
  13. What Do YOU Want to do at QB?

    Thought this was a great article: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/2/12/16998960/why-i-want-buffalo-bills-sign-kirk-cousins-tyrod-taylor-quarterback-situation-2018-nfl-free-agency
  14. JMillzz21's First GM Mock

    I think Kirk Cousins isn't a band aid if he is then its one heck of a bandaid his stats are there. As for LA and Philly both the QBs and HC are offensive style guys and QB gurus, unfortunately the Bills do not have that. Not that it is a big deal but they paved the way for those 2 QBs to be who they are, just look at Foles under the wrong coaches he was bad but with the right type of coach he fit perfectly and won a superbowl, but couldn't beat out . Goff was horrendous with Jeff Fisher, but Sean McVay knew how to work with him and has shown great stride. Mariota to me is worse then Tyrod Taylor so I dont agree with you on him being a franchise qb. He hasnt proven anything other then mediocre play. Like the bills his defense and running game got the titans to the playoffs not his performance. With that said and done those teams gave up 2 draft picks which 1 was included as a swap and Tenn was #2 at the time to get their guy, your talking about giving up 5-6 pieces to get one guy thats a huge difference. Those teams also had the ability to build around them especially Philly who has the solid defense and top oline in the league so they were in different situations then what the bills are in. 18 FA this year 6 starters leaving (WR #2, MLB, CB #2, CB Slot, DT #1 DT #2) Not including losing Glenn in this scenario so making that 7 as Dawkins would fill in as LT. Plus the weak positional play in RG and now RT. Along with depth that is needed.
  15. What Do YOU Want to do at QB?

    As you have seen in my other threads I am a believer of paying Kirk Cousins he is 30 years old (7-10 more years left in him). Proved to perform above most QBs (4000+ yds each of his starting 3 seasons, 65% completion, and 25+ td) with less talent on the offense especially this year with 4 OLineman out for majority of the season, they lost Garcon and DJax, Jordan Reed TE was injured most of the season, his best offensive weapon in Chris Thompson went down with season ending injury in Week 9. Leaving a massive bust in Pryor and then Doctson as his only weapons. Chris Thompson is a great gadget RB but wasnt a workhorse like Shady if you give him that weapon along with a big range WR in Kelvin Benjamin and then slot wr in Zay all they would need is a speedster WR opposite to Kbenji and you got the weapons for a good push at winning the AFC East. Especially with a healthy Glenn now that he is said to fully recover from foot surgery and being able to put dawkins back at rightside leaving RG as the only hole to fill. Both speedster WR and RG can be filled in the draft with the 5 picks they have in the top 3 rounds or can go with a tier 2/3 WR in FA like Albert Wilson who runs a 4.37. Yes paying Cousins 25-30 mil a year could be a tough pill to swallow but it puts the bills as contenders this year and continuing their momentum of building to win now and the future. My reasons why I do not want to draft a QB are: 1. it will involve multiple picks to trade up which will put the bills in a tough spot with the other massive holes on the team such as 2 DT's as dareus was traded and Kyle Williams is likely to retire especially with a rookie QB being brought in. 2. The chances of a QB to become a starter in the league from college to correlate to franchise material is slim as more QBs in the draft in round 1 have been busts then boom, statistics are there. 3. the bills will take a step back as they lose more players and bringing in a QB that will need time to develop and will be tough to develop when they have no pieces to draft those other holes because they used them to move up. 4. It will take 2-3 years for a rookie QB to start progressing as a franchise qb if he makes it over the hump of not being a bust. This will then put McDermott in year 4 and the bills fans and organization will become impatient which can lead to his firing and starting this horrible process all over again since 1999 with a new GM and HC. No matter what happens I do not see Tyrod Taylor sticking around, he has had his chances and even though the bills made the playoffs his mediocrity at QB isn't enough for him to stick around. Also he said he will not take a paycut and if people have a problem paying a guy like cousins the 25-30 mil then you should have a problem paying this inferior qb just under 19 million dollars this year
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