Always happy to explain a pick. Some players are purposely chosen high or lower than most people have them graded, and that's done purposely, as it always work out that way in the actual draft year after year. I hope you all enjoy
1. Arizona - Nick Bosa, DE, OSU - I think they end up passing on a qb, it would make them look foolish. Toss up on BPA between Bosa and Williams, but I'll give the nod to Bosa here.
2. San Francisco - Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama - SF will flirt with trading down, but staying but and getting one of the top 2 players in the entire draft is not a bad deal at all.
3. Green Bay via NY Jets - Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky - My thought is that GB never picks as high as 12, and this year having 2 first rounders, plus the jets looking to recoupe some picks, I think the Packers go for it to get that premier EDGE player, and keep their other first rounder in doing so. The Jets then pull in a slightly larger haul than last year, but to move down some more spots too.
GB receives # 3; NYJets receive #12; #44; #75; and 2020 third round
4. Oakland - Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma - Oh Jon Gruden, smh. I know people won't like this, I just wouldn't be shocked in the slightest. Mayok's comments on Carr were NOT a ringing endorsement, despite what people think.
5. Detroit via Tampa Bay - Montez Sweat, EDGE, MSU - Lions fans may not like this, but you could have a situation where they fall in love with Sweat, and rather than risk him going at 6 or 7, they go get their guy with a Tampa Bay team that's eager to drop a few spots. They end up not giving up any 1st or 2nd round picks to do so.
Detroit receive #5; Tampa Receive #8; #88; and 2020 4th round
6. NY Giants - Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan - Look, no matter how badly we want it to happen, one thing is crystal - Eli Manning will be the QB for the giants. The sooner we get on with that reality, the better we'll feel. The Zeitler trade tells me they will wait to add an OL through the draft, and will go with the BPA on defense here, then shift focus to the offense on day 2 and most of the draft.
7. Jacksonville – Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida - I think the Jags would love to move out of this spot, but I see teams bein patient with this QB class when you consider how good next years should be. That being said, Jags should look to improve the right side of the OL that was originally fired by the NY Giants (yea, that's how bad it was). Taylor has the most potential I think of the OL in the class, and makes sense if they stay put.
8. Tampa Bay Via Detroit – Greedy Williams, CB, LSU - After a savy move down, Tampa Bay has their choice of BPA. I think secondary has been such a sore spot for them, and with Arians/Bowles having had success in the past with fellow LSU DBs Honey Badger and Pat Peterson, I feel like this is the way they'll go.
9. Buffalo – DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss - With good but not great OL left, and a thin WR class, I think Buffalo once again tries addressing the position they have swung and missed at a bunch of times in the recent future. Teams with first contract QBs in this draft will likely not go defense, I think you'll regularly see that trend, unless the talent gap is large enough.
10. Denver – Devin White, LB, LSU - I'm sure Haskins will look enticing here, but Elway has made his career as a GM putting together stellar defensive units rather than drafting QBs, and it's kept him his job. White draw comps to Patrick Willis, which I'm sure this team would love to add to a win now unit trying to get one more run out of Big Joe.
11. Cincinnati – Dwayne Haskins, QB, OSU - Well, he is going to go somewhere. We've all had questions about Andy Dalton for a while now, and while Marvin was around, he stood by his guy. Well theirs a new sherrif in town, and I think how people have said the last 4 years "never know, Bengals could go QB"... well I think if Haskins were to fall this is the year they would do it, it makes sense if Taylor has a high grade on him.
12. NY Jets via GB – T.J Hockenson, TE, Iowa - Not a sexy pick, and may be a reach with someone like Ferrel on the board, but I don't see anyway the Jets don't use this pick to build around Darnold. Hockenson is a complete player who will help on both facets of the offense, and I think they can afford to reach a bit for that considering what they bring in in extra picks on the trade.
13. Miami – Clelin Ferrel, EDGE, Clemson - I think I read Cam wake is 37? Wow. They tried here before with Dion Jordan, Robert Quinn, it's been on their mind. Ferrel is safer than those guys I think, he's polished and ready to contribute right away. I think Miami is committed to the 2020 class at QB, so I don't expect a qb here. Rather, I could see a Teddy Bridgewater signing on a 2 yr deal, as Flores will need some time to develop as a head guy before his 4 year clock starts on a fresh arm.
14. Atlanta – Ed Oliver, DT, Houston - This is kind of a lazy pick because everyone is making it, but it makes a lot of sense considering he's pretty much the BPA and a good schematic fit.
15. Washington – Drew Lock, QB, Missouri - The Gruden boys are deep in it this year. I know they acquired Keenum, but it's a plan B in case plan A doesn't work out. I think Lock is plan A.
16. Houston via Carolina – Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama - I could see Carolina staying and making this same pick too, but I believe the roster has too many potential holes that if Houston came calling with their extra set of picks to jump Minny, Carolina would go for it. For Houston, protecting their investment in Watson is paramount, and this proves their intent.
Houston receive #16; #154; Carolina receive #23; #55
17. Cleveland – Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson - This is pretty much a BPA pick. It could be considered a need too, but I think Wilkins sort of falls into their lap here, and may be the final piece in a stellar defense. It goes against my mantra with 1dt contract qbs, but again the talent differential here between him and any OL TE WR RB to me is too large a gap right now, esp as RB/TE are not needs at all.
18. Minnesota – Jeffery Simmons, DL, MSU - Of Course they need to address the OL, however I think Simmons potential would be hard for them to pass on here. Pre-injury, Simmons looked like a potential top 7 pick. They're paid Cousins to do it on his own at this point, and he has maybe the best WR duo in the league, I think they tell him go get it done and we'll look at OL later. Maybe it's not the right move, but this is a business and he's being paid to make plays no matter what he's got around him - welcome to the lift of Eli Manning.
19. Tennessee – Brian Burns, EDGE, FSU - Retirements and FA open up some room on the edge. Landry looks like a fine player, but another guy out there would go a long way. Noah Fant is also in play here, but Mariota is on that bubble as a 5th year option player. He needs to show he can carry them now while the team builds a championship level defense.
20. Pittsburgh – Byron Murphy, CB, Washington - Murphy just feels like a Steeler. They have spent numerous premium picks on the secondary, and I don't see them stopping until they have it fixed, again following the mantra of "our QB will do it for us on O, let's build the D"
21. Seattle – Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma - There's a lot of ways they can go with this pick, it's a tough call. I think Safety will actually be in play too. It seems Seattle still is interested in a power run game even with Wilson, maybe to try and increase his career length, and so I'll go with a potentially dominant run game player here in Ford while they can before a bunch of teams with OL needs come up.
22. Baltimore – Garrett Bradbury, OL, NC State - Bradbury to me has really shot up boards, I have him with a mid 2nd grade. The goal for the Ravens, and I'll say it one more time, is to put pieces in place to support your first contract QB. Having a guy with the movement skills Bradbury has on a line with Lamar Jackson at the helm to me makes sense, even if it's higher than most people have him. Baltimore doesn't seem to mind reaching for the guys they want, and a lot of the time it works out for them.
23. Carolina via Houston – Johnathan Abram, S, MSU - Abram is a stellar athlete who I think fits in well schematically here. I think you'll see Cam get a little of the Cousins/Eli treatment here with a team that says you are in your prime, we need to build a defense to win while you carry the offense with CMC. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.
24. Pittsburgh via Oakland – Nasir Adderly, S, Delware - Did I mention the steelers cant stop wont stop until they fix this secondary? And oh yea... a little trade here. Creative I think because they do net a first rounder, but according to the trade value chart, brown is only a second round pick in this deal. And then there's John Gruden and Mike Mayok - continuing to screw with the league...
Pittsburgh receive #24; Oakland Receive #83; WR Antonio Brown
25. Philadelphia – Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss - Obviously Lane Johnson is a big piece, but opposite him Peters is 37. Little has upside as a true left tackle, but to learn from Peters for a year or two would probably be really beneficial for him, so I like this fit.
26. Indianapolis – Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama - I see Leveon ending up in a Jets uniform. That said, it would be nice to get Andrew Luck a similar type of back, which is exactly what Jacobs is. I do like Marlon Mack, I just don't know if he can be trusted to stay healthy. Defense would also make a lot of sense here - to me Jacobs is a first round talent, I think Indy makes more sense than any other team late, but with Philly and KC also in that mix.
27. Oakland Raiders – Devin Bush, LB, Michigan - So after landing THEIR franchise QB, his LT a year ago, and a top WR for him to throw too, they finally opt to go defense. Bush is the BPA here, which is why he gets the nod. Will be interesting to see what happens with Carr…. Miami? LA Chargers? Tampa Bay?
28. LA Chargers – Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State - Another not so sexy pick, but they really need a RT upgrade, and I think Dillard gives them that. The D is already championship contender level to me, now it's about filling in the couple of holes. DL is the sore spot of the D if there is one, so that'll look good here, but I see the safe pick coming. I see the league trend to be Contract 1 QBs get support, Contract 2 QBs get nothing because you're building a D and are now paid to carry - contract 3 QBs get the BPA, offense or defense, and then the old guys go back to getting supported a bit - if you last that long. That's the case here I think.
29. Jacksonville via Kansas City – Daniel Jones, QB, Duke - It's typical to have 3-5 QBs round one lately, I don't see this draft being any different. Jax, already getting an OL for Foles, roles into the next gen with a developmental guy in Jones. Moving to round 1 gives them an extra year of affordability, but getting him now gives them a plan B in case Foles flops. KC meanwhile picks up an extra pick they can then use on defense to try and get a title out of Mahomes in contract 1, while he is already performing like a contract 2 player.
Jacksonville receive #29; Kansas City receive #38, #98
30. Green Bay – Noah Fant, TE, Iowa - Having made the bold move to go get a premier defender, I think they go for some Arod support now by grabbing the Athletic TE here. He allows them to do some interesting things down the field, which is what you want with Arod back there now probably on hole #10 or 11 of his career.
31. LA Rams – Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson - Having such a good team already, and also having a need to take guys away from Aaron Donald so he can make even more plays, I think Lawrence would make a lot of sense here. Hopefully he can stay out of trouble in this market, but the risk is worth the reward here as he is the BPA. Suh will likely not be back.
32. New England – Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma - Not your typical NE pick. I think they are ticked Coughlin beat them again by getting to Jones first. Still, brown potential here is worth looking at if you are the pats, who have consistently been trying to add playmaking wrs other than Edelman, to not much success. I expect a trade to be honest, I just can't think of one at the moment.