Trade Chart References: JJ: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp RH: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp
1. Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Until anyone hears differently, this seems to be the consensus first overall pick
2. Redskins: Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State
Seems like Washington is content to stay put and select Young, can’t blame them.
3. Jaguars via Lions (Yannick Ngakoue, 137, Rams 2021 1st for 3): Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Wow, OK so I don’t see the chargers or dolphins moving up. Miami, from everything I’ve read seems fine with going Herbert. LA could then see if Tua falls, which he would if there are no other trade partners, or just take Love at 6. So I think Detrioit goes fishing, and maybe if they don’t have to give up anything this year other than a 4th along with the Rams extra first which won’t be too high, Jax would bite on this. It’s a good fit because they are OK with Minshew playing for as long as they need him to while Tua sits, but no one would be up in arms about Ttua replacing him at some point in the season. If Minshew plays well, they can probably get a second round pick back for him next year, and only end up dropping 20-30 picks or so from where the Rams pick would have been. Meanwhile, Detroit who is in “win now” or at least “get a lot better” mode, adds a playmaker at pass rusher who probably makes them better than anyone they can get at this pick for this season. If you rate out Y.N. as a first round pick, I’m considering that 1000 pts on the JJ model, 300 on the RH. Same rating for the rams first, where the 3rd overall is 2200 and 514 on the JJ and RH models. 137 is 37.5 and 15 respectively. That means on the JJ scale, Jags win this trade +162.5, on the RH, they lose -100... so it’s about right there.
4. Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
I would not be surprised if Jedrick Wills is the pick (factoring in the judge-alabama connection), yet it would be foolish for them to pass an arguably the second best player in the draft at #4 from a value standpoint, especially with a swiss cheese defense. They didn’t pass on Barkley for need, I don’t see them passing on Simmons either. For me there are only 3 scenarios – Simmons, Wills, or trade out. Can’t see any other pick.
5. Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Miami seems content to take to take Herbert. Maybe we are surprised and this is Love, but I don’t see Miami wasting it’s capital to go get Tua when they like Herbert just as much and give up nothing to get him… if that’s true and it isn’t a smoke screen.
6. Chargers: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
I don’t see Green Bay or New England with enough assets to be able to trade up here. That said, it’s possible that a team does go up and get him this high, and I do think SD wants to move back, but for now I don’t see anyone with the assets to go get either Love or Derrick brown here so I think they’ll just take him like the giants did with jones last year.
7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn
Another team that will listen to offers, but I don’t see anything being as good as taking a top tier defensive lineman like brown here, who I have as my #4A overall player behind Young, Simmons, & Burrow and tied with Okudah. 4th best player at 7 is great value.
8. Dolphins via Cardinals (18, 56, 141 for 8): Tristan Wirfs, OL, Iowa
Arizona, not having a second round pick, is a prime candidate to trade down I think. The dolphins have an extra second to give, so they move up to get their choice of LT to protect Herbert, instead of hoping one of the top 3 falls to them at 18. I think Wills is the better prospect, but Wirf’s athleticism is intriguing and could make him the top tackle selected. Miami is in a true re-build and therefore has time to wait on the potential. Trade value here is is +124.5 for Mia on the JJ model and +7 on the RH model. Dallas is another team to watch to trade to this spot to snag Okudah ahead of Jax, but ultimately Miami has more to offer.
9. Jaguars: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
After landing Tua and retaining their first rounders this year, the Jags look to address the secondary in the post Buoye Ramsey world. 4th overall player (tie) at 9 is tremendous.
10. Browns: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
I think Denver will talk to Cleveland about moving up for a wr, but ultimately the asking price is a bit high for a team that needs their picks to get better as a contender in the AFC west. If it was a light WR class, maybe they do it, but it’s arguably the deepest WR class we’ve ever seen. That said, Cleveland stands pat and fills their LT spot with the best tackle in the draft IMO.
11. Jets: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
People have been speculating WR here, but I know Joe Douglas has been quoted saying there is a lack of good offensive lineman in the NFL, and I believe that if he sees one he thinks can be elite, he won’t pass them. This is a deep WR class where he can get one later on. I do think they like Perriman’s potential still too. Thomas is plug and play at either tackle position, and is more pro-ready than a Mekhi Becton. With Sam going into his third year, there is more pressure on this organization to give him tools to win now before he would be due for either a pay day or release, Thomas helps accomplish that more than any other player I think.
12. Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
We saw this year what a big playmaker like Darren Waller can do in this Gruden offense, now you add one outside with the combination of a run game, and this offense is qb play away from being very, very good. Jeudy is a better route runner and probably slightly better overall but I think Lamb would make more of an impact in this offense – although I am interested in Raider’s fan feedback on who you would go with.
13. 49ers via Colts: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
SF is a prime trade down candidate also, yet with Jeudy falling into their lap I’m not sure they could pass on that unless an offer really blew them away, which I don’t see.
14. Buccaneers: Josh Jones, OT, Houston
A little bit of a surprise here. I think Jones is a better pass protector than Becton, and he’s more ready to do so now. Becton has huge upside, but his tape doesn’t really show top half of round one play. Maybe Jones’s doesn’t either, but Tampa needs someone more ready to play rather than a developmental prospect who will need time and coaching which I think gets Jones the nod.
15. Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
Staying put pays off, and they get their speed WR to compliment Cortland Sutton and help Lock develop. My guess is if Lock doesn’t work out, Elway could be gone, so I see him doing everything he can to prove he didn’t waste this second round pick last year and yet another QB.
16. Falcons: Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina
The falcons have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball. They could end up going with Henderson which would make sense, or Chaisson (who I think is the most over-rated prospect in the draft and could fall to round 2), but ultimately Kinlaw is the best defensive player available here and so they add him to further beef up the rotation. You just really can’t have enough defensive lineman, and even with the bigger need in the second level, Kinlaw is just a better player than those 2.
17. Cowboys: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
After losing Byron Jones, I think Dallas has to make this pick or their secondary is going to get shredded by the elite offenses in the NFL, which will keep them from being a true contender.
18. Cardinals via Dolphins via Steelers: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
An ideal fit, that they may very well end up taking at 8 if they don’t trade. Becton’s raw talent fits the situation here and 18 is about right for him. Getting him plus the extra second is a HR for the Cards. My tackle rankings are like so 1A. Wills, 1B. Wirfs, 2. Thomas 3A. Jones 3B. Becton.
19. Vikings via Raiders via Bears (22, 58, 205 for 19 & 81): Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
The raiders convert their extra third into a second (which they don’t have currently) to only move down a few spots. The Vikings meanwhile leapfrog the Eagles to grab what could end up a better version of Stefon Diggs in Justin Jefferson. +40 for LV on JJ, +13 for LV on RH
20. Jaguars via Rams: Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Minnesota
Jags continue to rebuild the defense. Kind of a tough pick to predict here, they could go Chaisson but he’s a poor man’s Josh Allen so I don’t know if that makes sense. Kenneth Murray is the BPA to me on D but he would play SAM here, and I’m not sure the 20th pick is worth a 2-down player in the eyes of the Jaguars org.
21. Eagles: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
After missing out on the top WRs, rather than reach in a deep class I think they would opt for a 3 down rangy LB which is something they desperately need. Then they address WR in round 2.
22. Raiders via Vikings via Bills: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
Gaining a run stopping interior defender who brings a leadership presence would be a nice way to end the Vontaze Burfict run. It’s yet to be seen if Murray can play in space, but the Raiders org never seems to mind what others think, they go get the guys they like.
23. Patriots: K’Lavon Chaisson, OLB, LSU
Adding a player like Chaisson who can probably play OLB in a 43 in addition to a 34 would be a good fit for the hybrid looks they run. It’s amazing how well the defense played last year when you look at the lack of talent on paper. Chaisson might be the BPA at this point, and no QB is worth this pick. They've shown they like to take their shot on undersized tweeners.
24. Saints: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
If Kenneth Murray or Patrick Queen make it here, I could see that being the pick. But with them not falling, I think NO would realize that Latavius Murray is 30 years old (which is death to RB production), Drew Brees is 40+, and reinventing the attack they had when Ingram was there could help them close out tight games. The team really doesn’t have any holes now that they added Emmanuel Sanders, and I do think they take a WR early but I could see them seeing Taylor as making them better right now to try and win a title.
25. Vikings: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
With so many departures at the CB position this offseason, it seems likely they’ll try and replenish there with an early pick. Austin Jackson is another pick to watch here, but I think Fulton is a better player. Jackson really needs some time to develop where Fulton could be plug and play.
26. Dolphins via Texans: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
Mckinney has been closely linked to the dolphins from what I have read, so if available it seems he will be the pick, possibly at 18 if they don’t trade up like I predict. Ashtyn Davis is the other player to watch, especially if McKinney is gone.
27. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State
Bruce Irvin is back, yet they could use another end presence that is better against the run than Irvin is. Seattle doesn’t have a lot of needs, and Gross-Matos is probably the BPA
28. Baltimore Ravens: Cesar Ruiz, OL, Michigan
With Marshall Yanda calling it a career, this run oriented offense needs some new talent to come in and make holes for the reigning MVP and league leading rushing attack. Zach Baun is another often-mocked possibility, but I think they are committed to the offensive line in trying to get a title while Lamar is on his rookie deal.
29. Browns via Titans (41 & 74 for 29): Justin Madubuike, DL, Texas A&M
Tennessee IMO is going to look to move down. The browns, in a division where defending the rub is paramount, move up to take a DT. They have an extra third round pick that allows them to do this, and it helps address one of the weaker spots on the defense. I’ve read 20% of every trade up in round 1 is for a defensive lineman, so here it is as there have been none thus far. Trade is +7 Tenn on the RH, +70 Tenn on the JJ model. Also from an analytics standpoint, which we know the browns are super heavy on, Madubuike is one of the top 5 rated players in terms of likely success in this draft, based on production, size, and athleticism, and round 1 gets them an extra year of him not on big money should it pan out.
30. Packers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
Green bay could really use a receiver that can stretch the defense and open up some route running lanes for Davante Adams. ILB is also a need and if Kenneth Murray was here I think they jump on him.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
With an aging Richard Sherman and not a lot of depth otherwise, SF is likely to address the secondary. Johnson is shooting up boards late right now.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
The chiefs corner situation is in really bad shape, I realize Deandre Swift here could be enticing, but the chiefs should stay disciplined and work on their defense, then grab a RB later on when it’s a better value. I think they are smart enough to do that.
33. Bengals – Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma
Defending the run in this division is of utmost importance
34. Colts – Ashtyn Davis, S, California
Completes the secondary opposite Mailk Hooker
35. Lions – Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State
Everyone thought OSU corner round 1, comes in round 2 instead
36. Giants – Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
An elite playmaker outside could be hugely impactful for Daniel Jones
37. Chargers - Austin Jackson, OT, USC
Potential RT starter with LT upside for the future if he can be developed
38. Panthers – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
In this division, you must be able to cover
39. Dolphins - Lloyd Cushenberry III, OC/OG, LSU
Putting an offensive line together for a young QB shows to be their top priority
40. Texans - Ross Blacklock, DL, TCU
Depth up front is something this defense could benefit from greatly
41. Titans via Browns – Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia
With Conklin leaving, competition for RT will be a good thing
42. Jaguars – Raekwon Davis, DL, Alabama
With Ngakuoe and Campbell both gone, rebuilding the DL will be important
43. Bears – Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Defense, at least on paper, is safety and cb depth away from Elite
44. Colts – Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado
They need another outside playmaker to compliment TY
45. Bucs – Deandre Swift, RB, Georgia
No secret the bucs have been trying to upgrade RB for a while
46. Broncos – Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
Secondary depth will be important for the Broncos to sustain given the departures
47. Falcons – Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
Replacing Desmond Trufant is a must
48. Jets – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
Will serve to help fill the void left by Robby Anderson
49. Steelers – Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Too good a talent to pass on here, playing opposite Juju
50. Bears - Amik Robertson, CB, Louisiana Tech
They can now spend the rest of the draft acquiring blocking and receiving talent… higher than people think but he’s going to go round 2
51. Cowboys – Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame
With Jason Witten now gone for good, there’s a new era in Dallas
52. Rams – Zach Baun, LB, Wisconsin
A steal this late, LA plugs up a hole on D
53. Eagles – KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State
Desean Jackson type playmaker to stretch the field
54. Bills – AJ Epenesa, DE, Iowa
Helps replace Shaq Lawson, another steal this late
55. Ravens – J.K Dobbins, RB, Ohio State
Making a strengths stronger seems to work here
56. Cardinals – Marlon Davidson, DL, Auburn
OL then DL is likely for an organization well equipped with skill players already
57. Rams via Texans - Tyler Biadasz, C, Wisconsin
RB or WR is tempting but infusing youth into the Oline also makes a lot of sense for the long term
58. Raiders via Vikings – Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn
Oline is good but lacks depth, and after picking 2 skill position deepening the trenches should be a priority
59. Seahawks - Jeremy Chinn, S, Southern Illinois
A Kam Chancellor sized safety could be a nice fit in certain packages for this D
60. Ravens - Michael Pittman Jr., WR, USC
Late round steel, not the biggest need but great value
61. Titans – Jordan Elliot, DL, Missouri
Continuing to build up the DL will move this D towards elite
62. Packers – Matt Peart, OT, UConn
OL development, especially at tackle, seems wise given the current situation.
63. Chiefs – Cam Akers, RB, Florida State
KC get’s a potential do it all RB
64. Seahawks - Lucas Niang, OT, TCU
Seattle’s RT position could use some competition