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soulman

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  1. GB Pursued Mack Aggressively in 2018

    They say a lot of crap like that but just saying it won't make it so anywhere but in their own minds.
  2. What sticks out like a sore thumb to me is we gained only 3.7 ypc on 1st down/ten behind Jordan vs a league average of 4.7 ypc. I was not aware we'd done that poorly and clearly blocking was not the only issue. Nagy's inability to feel comfortable throwing to Howard in 1st/ten resulted in more longer yardage calls on 2nd and 3rd down. That should change dramatically this year and for once is nice to see how well Pace and Nagy are responding to the tweaks that need to be made in order to make this a top ten offense to match a top ten defense.
  3. GB Pursued Mack Aggressively in 2018

    Just killing some time prior to camp with another look back at the Mack trade. It's kind of ironic that one of the biggest factors in the Raiders decision to deal him to us was their perception that they would end up with far better picks and in reality they ended up with our 2019 #24 and not GB's #12. Added to that was GBs unwillingness to give two #1 picks whereas Pace agreed but only on the basis of getting a 2020 #2 in exchange for our 2020 #1. Given our prospects it entirely possible that pick may also be a mid 20s pick or higher and if we receive a top 10 2nd round pick back we've lost very little but actually gained since 2nd round picks will be much less expensive to sign. The other issue of course is money but we don't come out badly there either. GB has committed $52 mil gtd and an average annual value of $33.5 mil to Z Smith, P Smith, and R. Gary to bump up their pass rush. We're on the hook for $90 mil gtd but $10 mil less in average annual value at $23.5 mil. Now the question is will Mack have more sacks, pressures, hits, turnovers in 2019 than all three of those guys? It could happen.
  4. Packers were aggressive in pursuing Mack in 2018 Print By Kevin Patra Around the NFL Writer Published: July 19, 2019 at 10:33 a.m. Updated: July 19, 2019 at 10:40 a.m. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001036263/article/packers-were-aggressive-in-pursuing-mack-in-2018 The past is writ in indelible ink as the moving finger advances towards future endeavors. The unimpeded march of time does not preclude us mortals from contemplating rearward events that could have altered our future if we'd acted differently. So it is for the Green Bay Packers, who 10 months ago came up short in their bid to trade for Khalil Mack, instead watching rival Chicago Bears snag the former Defensive Player of the Year from the Oakland Raiders. Green Bay's team president Mark Murphy told 105.7 The FAN's Gary Ellerson during the Packers Hall of Fame Golf Outing that the Raiders decision came down to predicting which NFC North team would have a worse record in 2018. "Well the whole Khalil Mack thing. It's not that we didn't try," Murphy said. "We were aggressive. We wanted to sign him. I think, ironically, the Raiders took the Bears offer because they thought they would be a better draft pick." Perhaps the Raiders figured an Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team would be better than a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears team that had been stuck in the cellar and picked inside the top 10 the previous four seasons. Such analysis would ignore what it would mean to the Bears to add a game-changing talent like Mack, but Oakland couldn't have anticipated the Packers would have fallen apart as they did. It could have been the case that whichever team the Raiders sent Mack to would have had the better record. The Packers ended up 6-9-1 with the No. 12 overall pick. The Bears won the NFC North at 12-4 and gave Oakland the No. 24 selection. Aside from Murphy's claim that the Raiders figured Chicago would have a worse record, the Bears willingness to offer two first-round picks likely played a role. As noted by Cheesehead TV's Zachary Jacobson, it was reported last year that the Packers offered one of their 2019 first-rounders and a plethora of other selections, but not both first-rounders. Continuing a supposed defense as to why his team didn't up the offer to pair a generational talent like Mack to a generational QB like Rodgers, Murphy noted he'd have to hand the pass-rusher a record-setting contract, just days after he just gave one to the quarterback. "I don't know if it is good to have the highest-paid offensive player in the league, and the highest-paid defensive player in the league," asked Murphy. "Is that a good way to build a team?" Sure, there would have been trepidation in paying two players an exorbitant percentage of the salary cap. It also means the Packers likely wouldn't have had to shell out boatloads of cash for free agents Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith this offseason. If they'd landed Mack, they also wouldn't have been in a position to draft Rashaan Gary at No. 12. Thus ends today's edition of What If We Rewrite History. Murphy's rational, reasoning, excuses, or whatever you want to call it, doesn't change the past one iota.
  5. He did a nice job of separating how differences in their running styles behind different blocking schemes also separate Howard from Davis and from what we've seen from his college highlights Montgomery is like Davis plus. The fits are there without a doubt. I just posted a thread on how NFL teams have been using first down passing to their RBs to enhance their offenses and stay out of 3rd and long situations and it makes sense. If we were averaging less than 4 ypc on 1st down runs in 2018 and we can both enhance that with better RBs or by throwing more on 1st down averaging 6 yds per play that creates a whole new approach to 2nd and 3rd down play calling. Nagy's offense needed another Kareem Hunt type and both Montgomery and Davis fit that need far better than Howard did. IMHO Jordan Howard is still a productive back just not one whose the best fit for Nagy's overall schemes. Soble's analysis made that fairly easy to see.
  6. LOL..... Come on man......Wims has shown us more than Currie. He was one of those fast midgets Mike Martz favored wasn't he? Wims is 6'4"/215-220lbs and Cordarrelle Patterson is 6'2"/228lbs. In the event of an injury IMHO either could be used in Burton place IF Nagy chooses to get them set up to do it. Remember we didn't realize Burton would be lost in that playoff game 'til the day before the game. Given how Burton is used a bigger WR may do better in that role than a slower TE. Patterson and Burton are about the same size but Patterson is far more explosive and I would love to see Nagy find more ways to get him on the field and get the ball to him. He can do enough things to earn his keep that if Nagy can exploit that he could be a huge difference maker this year as far as point production. I could easily see him used as a move TE as well. Wims should have a good shot at making the final cut if only because other than Patterson he's the only big body WR we have to add depth behind ARob. I think what it may come down to is Wims vs Ridley to see whose the first off the bench backup to the starters.
  7. Robbie Gould Update; The Stalemate Continues

    It looks to me like this is the path we need to follow. Ideally either Fry or Piniero are gonna be our longer term solution and we should know more as we watch them both in preseason. But I also believe that if whoever does win out can't continue to show the consistency needed in the regular season we need to bring in an experienced vet for 2019 and keep searching. No more second and third chances like Parkey was granted. I may come off sounding a little brutal about this but we need to be. There is no telling what Parkey's miss in that playoff game may have cost us. We can't end up going down that same road again. I care less about ultimate distance than I do about 100% accuracy on kicks any decent PK should be making and those kicks are in the 30-49 yard range.
  8. Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be By JJ Stankevitz July 18, 2019 1:04 PM https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/david-montgomery-tarik-cohen-mike-davis-jordan-howard-chicago-bears-running-backs-pass-catching-receiving-what-to-watch-for-training-camp-bourbonnais 
How much better Mitch Trubisky will be is the defining question for the 2019 Bears. But we won’t begin to know the answer to that question until September — it’s not something that’ll be easily discernible during training camp practices in Bourbonnais or a handful of snaps in preseason games. Those can sometimes produce false positives and false negatives. The Bears believe in Trubiskiy, of course, and you’ll likely hear Matt Nagy and players laud their quarterback’s growth over the coming weeks. But belief is one thing; tangible production is another. And we won’t truly get to see that growth until the night of Sept. 5 at Soldier Field. But there are a few things to look for in Bourbonnais that could clue us in that a big-time leap is coming for No. 10. We’ll begin this mini-series leading up to the start of training camp next week with this: Better success from running backs catching passes on first down. It’s a narrowly specific angle, but one that carries plenty of weight. Consider this excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview: “First down has long been perceived as a running down. In 2017, the league-wide average run-pass split on first down was 47-53. It was 50-50 last season, but that was still well below the 59-41 league-wide split on all downs. Yet passing to running backs on first down is significantly more effective. “In 2018, there were 6,248 running back rushing attempts on first down. They averaged 4.5 yards per carry, minus-0.01 Expected Points Added per attempt, and a positive play rate of 41.3%. When teams threw to running backs on first down, they averaged 6.02 yards per target, 7.8 yards per receptions. 0.08 EPA per attempt — slightly more efficient than the average of all passes regardless of down at 0.05 EPA — and a positive play rate of 52.3%.” The larger point here (especially if your eyes glazed over some of those numbers — which, we promise, make sense) is this: Scheming more throws to running backs on first down is an area in which almost every team in the NFL can improve. It's worth noting the Kansas City Chiefs' most effective play on first-and-long in 2018, per Sharp, was a pass to Kareem Hunt. And the good news is the Bears re-worked their running back room in a way that could optimize their success throwing the ball to David Montgomery, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen on first down. The 2018 Bears simply didn’t have the personnel to do that regularly or successfully. Jordan Howard was only targeted nine times on first-and-10, catching five passes for 42 yards. All nine of those targets were short throws, either to the left (two), middle (one) or right (six), and Trubisky had a passer rating of 83 on those attempts. Meanwhile, Howard carried the ball 128 times on first-and-10, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only generating nine first downs (the NFL average for rushing attempts on first-and-10 in 2018 was 4.7 yards per carry). Cohen was, roughly, the inverse of Howard’s numbers: He caught 30 of 37 targets for 241 yards (6.5 yards per target) and generated seven first downs through the air, but averaged just 3.2 yards on his 46 rushing attempts with four first downs. Neither player was particularly balanced in these scenarios: Howard was mildly ineffective running the ball and not a threat catching it; Cohen was largely ineffective running the ball but was a threat catching it. And for the crowd who still believes Nagy wasn’t willing to establish the run: The combined rushing attempts on first-and-10 of Howard, Cohen, Benny Cunningham and Taquan Mizzell totaled 182; the combined pass attempts by Trubisky and Chase Daniel in that down-and-distance was 176, per Pro Football Reference’s play index. The Bears, in 2018, averaged 5.5 yards per play on first-and-10, tied for 24th in the NFL. Yet only three teams — the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts — averaged fewer yards-to-go on third down than the Bears’ mark of 6.9. That’s a sign of Nagy’s playcalling prowess and the talent on this offense, and it’s not a stretch to argue an improvement of first-and-10 success will have a significant impact on the overall success of the Bears’ offense. So back to the initial point about passes to running backs in these situations: The Bears believe both Montgomery and Davis have some untapped potential as pass-catching running backs. Montgomery caught 71 passes in college at Iowa State, while Davis was targeted the most by the Seattle Seahawks in 2018 on first down (17 of 42 targets). Cohen, of course, is already an accomplished pass-catcher. The “Run DMC” backfield needs to have more success carrying the ball on first-and-10 than last year’s group did, of course. But if you’re in Bourbonnais or watching a preseason game, keep an eye out for how effective the Bears are at passing to their running backs — especially if those passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage (another inefficiency noted by Warren Sharp's 2019 Football Preview). If you start seeing Montgomery making defenders miss after catching a pass, or Davis looking fluid with the ball in his hands, or Cohen breaking off some explosive gains — those will be significant reasons to believe in Trubisky and the Bears' offense in 2019.
  9. Robbie Gould Update; The Stalemate Continues

    I have no idea where to find a data base that would allow us to extract only XP attempted and made from a LOS at the 25 yard line. But my premise still holds. If any PK is constantly practicing kicks from 33-39 yards he should have at least 95% accuracy from those distances.
  10. Random Thoughts for May 2019

    By the way Fox kept him reined in by and large they were about as valuable as preseason games as a test of his abilities. It's traditional for the Bears to always have a QB problem so.......even if we don't have one some must invent one for the focus on an article because some of those morons aren't clever enough to find a new slant. To me it's a lot like....."oh, oh". "Looks like Happy's learned to putt".
  11. I'd agree about Wims but I do expect to see him again in preseason and evaluate where he's at. Is he better or can he be better or has he plateaued and if so where does that place him in the WR mix? If he's still ascending over a 16 game season he may get more shots than we realize. Deon Bush: It's good that Pace brought HHC-D in to play SS and let Bush know the job wasn't automatically his. If that doesn't push his game up a tier or two he's gonna be gone by 2020 or he becomes a career ST guy and backup. A younger McManis. Dax Raymond: Nice name. Could be a movie star if football doesn't pay off. We could use a backup to Burton in the form on a smaller quicker TE. Or would Nagy prefer a bigger Kelce sized guy? Braunecker won't lay down either and he plays ST well. Duke Shelley: Gonna be one of the more interesting guys to watch ascend. Skrine is not all that bad as a Slot CB and he has a huge edge in experience. It may also depend on how often Skine gets flagged for holding or PI.
  12. Robbie Gould Update; The Stalemate Continues

    And that's all I was saying. These guys are pros or wanna be pros. Most have been kicking since HS and many have had college careers, attended kicking camps most of their lives, and some have had some preseason or pro league experience somewhere. Expecting a competent NFL PK to make 90% of his total attempts shouldn't be an upper limit. It should be a common expectation. The greatest majority of kicks now come between 33-39 yards. Most every NFL PK will attempt at least one XP and one FG per game from those distances. That should be a PK's "sweet spot" and he should be 95%-99% from there. And he should be at least 88%-90% accurate between 40-49 yards. 50 yards and over 50%-60% is probably the best you'll get with any consistency. Those are my targets and I hope they're Pace and Nagy's as well.
  13. Will the Bears Defense Regress in 2019?

    As I've posted. In some quarters the Bears are still a very disliked team many hope will fail. Those who do write columns predicting it. It's whistling past the graveyard kind of wishful thinking. Let's see how correct they are come January.
  14. Will the Bears Defense Regress in 2019?

    But as it relates to both the media and any preseason analysis no one can contemplate injuries in the mix so none of that is in the mix. Those media types who want to insist the Bears will regress would have to do it on the basis of the team remaining reasonably healthy. What would GB's chances be if Rodgers was lost during the opener? Or Cousins in Minny or Stafford in Detroit. What would happen to any NFCN defense if it lost one or two of it's top players? IMHO the thinking about a defensive regression is based on two things; 1) the loss of Vic Fangio, and 2) we can't possibly create as many turnovers in 2019 as we did in 2018. Neither is extremely valid but since when have some media type ever been required to validate their opinions in the same way a stats/metrics analyst like Jonathan Woods does? And when proven wrong, as many were last season, which one then writes a mea culpa column confessing it? Crickets........ Didn't think so.
  15. Robbie Gould Update; The Stalemate Continues

    So does that mean we should be willing to settle for less? The best in the game have hit 88% or more of all kicks, PAT and FG. Robbie Gould has hit 87.7% of his career FG attempts and 97.6% of his XP attempts. His overall career accuracy is 93%. Now, please tell me again just how impossible it is to find a PK whose that accurate and do you all understand what I'm saying? We had him and Fox wanted him gone. Hooray.....long live John Fox, the f'n moron.
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