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abstract_thought

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  1. Glass Half Full 2020

    Correlation between ESPN Projected Wins and Actual Wins: 0.634 I guess the best you could say is they're "directionally accurate". Anyone paying attention to the NFL could probably produce similar results.
  2. Bears' Dirty Little Secret: They Can't Run Up the Middle

    Didn't Nagy make a bunch of adjustments to the RPO game specifically because Mitch was struggling to properly execute the plays?
  3. Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option

    1. Consider external factors. 2. Watch the player play football games. 3. Look at advanced stats like DVOA, ANAY/A, Depth of Target, etc.
  4. Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option

    Stop looking at the raw stats with no context. That’s how Bears fans oversold Trubisky after 2018.
  5. Who are your favorite possible coaching candidates for 2021?

    Just want to add that KC's special teams have been in the top 5 in DVOA in 6 of the 7 years he's been there. The other year they were 9th.
  6. Good Read from SI: Chicago Bears Virtual QB Room

    Agree with all of this, but it still doesn't change my point. There's an obvious double-standard in Bears fans where everything is expected to be perfect for whichever QB provides the rosiest long-term potential. Poor performance by anyone associated with that QB is used as an excuse to kick the can down the road on finding a replacement. And while poor play in any position group will affect a QB, there have certainly been effective QBs with protection worse than Mitch's in 2019. The NFL reality is that protection is not going to be flawless. Good NFL QBs can make plays even when things don't go 100% according to script.
  7. Good Read from SI: Chicago Bears Virtual QB Room

    Bears fans: We excuse mediocre QB play but expect every other player to execute his responsibilities flawlessly.
  8. Post Draft Big Picture Bears Thoughts

    2019 2018’s performance stacked up with the best defenses of this era and was driven by a lot of turnover and injury luck. The impact of the 2019 unit is far more repeatable as the baseline for a good defense.
  9. Post Draft Big Picture Bears Thoughts

    I agree with this. I think we already saw the defense's regression and we'll see a similar performance in 2020 with a small bounce-back possible.
  10. Post Draft Big Picture Bears Thoughts

    “Last year, I kept talking about 101. Now, without a doubt, I can say with pure conviction we’re in 202 right now.”
  11. Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option

    I'm not making any statement about likelihood. I'm asking how many losses you'd accept this season to give him a fair evaluation. If, like last season, the team starts 3-3 with the offense being the obvious limiting factor, would you replace Trubisky with Foles?
  12. Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option

    How many games are you willing to lose to evaluate him?
  13. Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option

    Let's be realistic though - the CBA and rules in baseball make long-term rebuilds far more common. The NFL treats its executives with a much shorter leash than the MLB for a variety of reasons.
  14. Offensive Roster Projection

    I think Miller is set-up for a breakout year if Foles is made the starter. His career has been held back by QB play.
  15. Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option

    Remember that an 8-8 record may now be good enough to make the playoffs. It's a lower bar now. IMO Pace and Nagy will be around beyond next season and beyond Trubisky. I think the most likely outcome is the Bears are looking for both a veteran and a developmental QB next offseason.
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