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abstract_thought

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  1. Rank your favorite draft pick ...

    I'll say Stephen Denmark. His range of positive outcomes is so varied because of his athleticism and physicality. I'll be interested to see how the Bears develop him.
  2. Is Pace Trubisky Proof

    It depends. If you have a generational top 4-5 QB, he's probably worth paying. If not, you end up in a weird situation where you hope for a few great draft classes in a row because that's the only way you can contend. The question Pace needs to answer is whether Trubisky is good enough to keep the Bears in contention when many of the pieces around him go away. Could Trubisky lead a team like the Packers or Vikings to the playoffs?
  3. Is Pace Trubisky Proof

    The answer to this entirely depends on how they handle Trubisky's next contract. They'll contend while he's on a rookie deal. If he sucks and they sign him to a mega deal, the competitive window will close quickly and people will point fingers at Pace.
  4. Debating the ‘Value’ Of David Montgomery

    We don't know yet about Philly and LA. They've had short windows of contention so far but we can't say whether it will be sustainable. The question here isn't whether giving away assets can build a competitive team. We've seen it done several times already. The bigger question is whether the competitive window of a team built in this way is shorter than one built by accumulating more assets. This also applies to the Mack trade. When evaluated in years 1 and 2 it will obviously look great. The question is whether the draft picks and salary cap money given up for Mack will prevent the Bears from building a competitive team 4-5 years from now.
  5. Debating the ‘Value’ Of David Montgomery

    The issue with that reasoning is that drafting is not necessarily random and treating it as such ignores the contextual stuff that heavily influences the success of a pick. With that said, it's obvious that draft picks are one of NFL teams' limited resources and that consistently trading away your limited resources can have negative consequences. To make this clear, imagine a team trading away 2 drafts worth of picks for the #1 overall. Even if the player turns into an All Pro, the team will be severely limited when trying to build out the rest of the roster. I think the thoughtful critics of Ryan Pace view his team-building strategy as something which may result in a short-term contender but which will not create a sustainably good team. The most important unanswered question is whether a sustainable team-building strategy exists in the modern NFL and if teams that employ alternative strategies (e.g. accumulating resources) see longer competitive windows.
  6. Debating the ‘Value’ Of David Montgomery

    His criticism of Barnwell is unsound and borders on hyperbole. I'd like to see a more thoughtful breakdown which shows the success rate of trade-ups. Instead we got weird appeals to failed GMs and personal criticism of a writer without any sound refutation of his arguments. Emery didn't fail because he didn't take risks. He failed because he was a terrible evaluator of talent and because he picked terrible coaches. Similarly, Pace won't succeed or fail due to his tendency to trade up for specific players but instead for his talent evaluation.
  7. Debating the ‘Value’ Of David Montgomery

    This is ludicrous. We should strive to evaluate arguments based on their merits, not based on the arguer. I could understand if this guy made a case involving factual evidence, but most of his advocacy for the pick relies on speculation. The factual evidence he does provide (e.g. wingspan) is head-scratching and doesn't do any service to Montgomery. If the writer wanted to make a case for Montgomery against Harris and a case for the trade, he could have pointed to Montgomery's unique skillset and passing game value.
  8. Kind Of A Damning Review Of Emanuel Hall

    We don't know that he wasn't drafted because of route running. There are plenty of equally raw players without his physical profile who were drafted. It's more likely that teams passed on him because of concerns with his personality or attitude.
  9. Kind Of A Damning Review Of Emanuel Hall

    You don't run every post the same way. Sometimes you run it skinny. Sometimes you come off the route. Without knowing the scheme or the playcall it's almost impossible to make that judgment. That's one of the reasons I dislike PFF - you have to infer the player's responsibility to come up with a "grade" based on film. I know it's popular to hate on pure traits players but people have taken things in the opposite direction where they overvalue positional skills that are easy to coach. Let's see what happens when this guy works with NFL coaches. I'm not going to evaluate his route-running based on what he did in a weird college spread coached by a bunch of weirdos.
  10. NFC North Rivals 2019 Talk

    The Packers have taken a few serious risks this offseason but that's probably what it will take to put a contending team around Rodgers given how much he's paid. Gary is a boom or bust pick. At this point the Packers probably need to gamble a bit and hope for a big payoff.
  11. Chicago Drafts RB David Montgomery

    We'll probably not see another back sustain a high level of performance over a career like Payton. Defenders are simply too big and the collisions are too violent. Many of the top RBs in the league were high picks, but they often peak for a few years at most.
  12. 7[238] Bears Draft CB Stephen Denmark

    One thing that encouraged me was his physicality. That's something you typically worry about when converting guys to defense, but this guy seems to enjoy contact. As more teams use move TEs, there's a growing need for box CBs with the size and skills to cover but enough physicality to play a LB-like role against the run. This guy is perfect for that position.
  13. Rd 6 Pick 205 - CB Duke Shelley, KSU

    I don't think this depends solely on Shelley's performance. The Bears invested in Michael Joseph last year. He has the athletic traits to offer long-term potential and immediate special teams impact. Tolliver is another guy who can step into the 3rd/4th DB role with a strong camp. There are several options already on the roster. But I'm in agreement that saving money seems prudent. That money could be earmarked for extensions or could be used to sign veteran depth at another position. Good veteran players will be cut in the next few months.
  14. Rd 6 Pick 205 - CB Duke Shelley, KSU

    I'm thinking McManis gets cut. The Bears can save about 1.7M and have plenty of bodies for the 4th CB/ST spot.
  15. Chicago Drafts RB David Montgomery

    Not just hands but his route-running is very good. He consistently got open at the top of his routes. IIRC his RB coach came from Toledo and said that DM is a better receiving back than Kareem Hunt.
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