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Everything posted by Duffman57

  1. 2020 Draft

    http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=66869&DraftYear=2011 I'm pretty sure the official was 4.63 and the unofficial was 4.53. But either way, I do think Kaep is a little faster, but not significantly. I still think Luck is the best comp for Herbert, very similar athleticism.
  2. 2020 Draft

    Herbert and Kaep ran almost the exact same 40. Just sayin.
  3. 2020 Draft

    Honestly I thought the Murray diagnosing stuff was overblown. It was really 1 game where he struggled (the first matchup vs Baylor), and there were 3-4 of the exact same plays where he overran a gap (that I don't think was really his play to make). Obviously its bad because it resulted in 2 TD's and a big 1st down but it seemed more situational and getting out schemed than anything else. He was the weakside backer in all the plays, and the way they coached it was that the playside LB shoots his gap, and then the weakside backer drags over the top to kind of be a cleanup player. It almost seemed like they told him "under no circumstances do you let anyone outside of you" because every time they ran that motion he was too wide and couldn't get back in time to make a play (it didn't help that the playside LB got pinned and made a huge gap he needed to tackle the RB in without allowing a yard). But outside of that game, I haven't had a single issue with his diagnostic ability. The only other issue is that sometimes he shoots a wrong gap, or tries to undercut a blocker and doesn't get to the play in time. But I saw someone that said it perectly. He's a perfect Will LB, if you have a Mike that can "clean up the trash" for you. If you're going to let him run wild, you better have a sound player that can fix some of the over-aggressive plays he makes, and I think Perryman/White/Tranquil are perfect for that job. None of them are outstanding as playmakers, but they're absolutely great at assignment football. Josh Kelley to me, seems like that guy that's going to be a 4-5 YPC back, that's extremely dependable. What makes him interesting is how efficient he is, and the fact that he has home run speed. He's going to break some big plays just off reading the right gap and going. He's got a little bit of Alfred Morris in him to me. If we can get him just reading the right gap and getting upfield, I think he's going to be really solid. I'm very interested in Reed. I think he can be a really good offensive weapon for us, and he's more of a deep threat than people give him credit for. I also liked the Alohi Gilman pick. He's just that pure try-hard, classic navy guy. He's got more athleticism than people give him credit for, but his game is all about the "want to". I think he fits in perfectly to the gap that Phillips left, and could even play some CB down the road (nickel/dime), since some teams asked him to do that last year. He fits right into the versatile S mold that we love. It's gonna be fun to see what we do on defense this year. So many players that can do so many things. In terms of Hill, I think he does, more because of lack of depth than anything. I think he's just that typical, dependable receiver that's going to get 3-5 looks a game. He's not going to have to play ST's, but I think he's got a shot at PR duties. I think he ends up being what everyone wanted Artavis Scott to be. Just a no nonsense 4th receiver.
  4. 2020 Draft

    Yeah, that's why Luck is my "upside" comparison. But the way they play, and their tape is actually really similar in terms of how they move and how they're footwork is. But yeah, Herbert's always been a though eval because of all of the factors that went into why he struggled. There's just so much to unravel there. But I think it ultimately comes down to the fact that he HAS shown that he can anticipate, and has shown everything you want, and even strung it together for full games (Colorodo was as elite a game as you can find from a prospect), but just when he got rolling, things came to a halt and he had some UDFA looking games. Such a unique eval because of that. It's not like Trubisky where he was stuck behind a UDFA for 3 years that he couldn't beat out, but he also didn't develop like you'd expect a 4 year starter to. But yeah, I think he's a very safe QB, and he doesn't really make a lot of bad mistakes, but at the same time, he'll miss plays that would go for touchdowns. A lot of people are going to freak out about him being all potential and not a QB worth a top 5-10 pick, but it's easy to envision him at least being a game manager, so like at the very worst case you're getting a guy who won't lose you games. But the high end potential is all the way up there.
  5. 2020 Draft

    So this is going to sound really biased, but I went back and watched Andrew Luck, and while they have their differences, Luck and Herbert play REALLY similarly. They were both more "see it" throwers, and didn't really anticipate as much, but they both sort of broke down mechanically when plays didn't develop very well. Luck was better at the nuances of the game, and when things broke down, the biggest difference is that he trusted any one of his 3 NFL TE's to throw it up to. Herbert didn't have anyone to do that with. I would say Herbert is a more underdeveloped Luck. And basically not having a QB coach, and Luck having Pep/Shaw/Harbaugh (which is part of the reason I like the Pep hiring, being able to work with and develop relationships with that type of person/player is going to be really key) developing him through college is a significant source of that difference. Both are athletically gifted, and really smart, analytical football players. But with the rawness obviously comes the increased risk. I think Luck is the "good outcome" for Herbert, while Colin Kaepernick or a more athletic Joe Flacco is probably the down side on the outcome scale. I think that's a fairly reasonable range of outcomes, and the downside is enough to where you can win with him as a part of the offense if you build a good enough team around him, which is something I really like about him. The downside is at a point where he may not WIN you a whole lot of games, but he will rarely lose you any games.
  6. 2020 Schedule Announced

    I find it hard to think our defense doesn't carry us to at least a 7 win season. Probably the best combination of secondary and pass rush in the NFL, MUCH improved run defense with Linval and Murray. As long as Derwin/Bosa stay mostly healthy, we have the depth to weather pretty much any other injury. The offense at the very least, should have a solid run game, and a decent short passing game, if nothing else just off the back of KA, Ekeler and Henry. People have long underestimated Feeney and then this year they're all of the sudden going to say "CAMPEN FIXED FEENEY" when he's been good for the last 1.5 years. The only spot up in the air is LT, but Pipkins shows a lot of promise and could be a good candidate for a guy who is going to surprise, though I could see Peters being a legit option. If Tyrod is exactly what he was in Buffalo, we're at least a team that goes over 500 IMO, if not 10+ wins. I think the other thing, is that we're going to get a lot of wins early in the season because of the massive overhaul that our offense is going to go through. I think there's so many things that a team needs to prepare for, that they're going to have some issues defending us until they have some film on us. But i'm worried about how well the offense is going to push on later in the season. Ultimately this team is going to live and die on just how good the defense and OL ends up being. If we can avoid some injury issues, then this team can play the game very similarly to the 49ers did when they were winning with Kaep.
  7. 2020 Draft

    Yeah, which is something Roman uses a lot, with both the 9ers and the Bills with Tyrod there. I don't particularly think that it'll be a duplicate of that. Also we ran more run pass options with Rivers than you would think, the run was just play action, and were real RPO's.
  8. 2020 Draft

    I think people overstate "taking concepts from x offense". You guys have to remember that Lynn spent a lot of time learning under Roman and developing the offense with him for Tyrod in Buffalo. I think they have a very solid plan in place for him already which was a lot of what they succeeded with when they had him in Buffalo. Roman is one of the best guys out there at designing a running game, and I think Campen will help with that. I also think that Herbert benefits from that same thing. I could see them running a similar offense to what the 9ers ran in SF with Kaep.
  9. 2020 Draft

    Did some early work looking into Josh Dunlop and Ryan Roberts. Both are really interesting. They're very much both lungers and can lose balance at times, but both of them showcase really good lateral agility and have really solid saquare power. They're exactly the prototype guy that I expect from Campen. Really good initial quickness and get out of thier stance quick for reach blocks and pass sets. Both are smart with the awareness to pass off stunts and twists. Roberts especially is incredibly versatile. He's played games at both OG and OT spots in his college career, starting last year for FSU at RT, and taking over LT for the bowl game. In' '18 Roberts played a REALLY good game against FSU and showed off his power and agility in pass pro, and actually held his own quite a few times vs Brian Burns (though like everyone else, Burns got the better of him a few times, it was a battle). He's kind of lost in space, but he gets the job done at the LOS getting to reaches, . If they can reign him in and getting him taking better angles to the ball, then he can absolutely develop into a depth piece at OG/OT. Dunlop is more of a true OT, with more length and athleticism, but he's started games at LT, RG and RT, so he's another very versatile guy. But I actually LOVE his game. There's some refinement to be had there, but I think he's got a legit shot at making this roster if he shows he can play OG. While UTSA got massacred vs Baylor, he really held his own asside from a few plays where he got overextended and bullrushed back into the QB. What stands out to me with him is his combination of hands and feet. His feet put him in position, and then he'll fire his hands which are like vice grips. Has the same kind of style that Campen teaches, where he actually shoots his hands outside at the shoulder/armpit and just locks guys in and mirrors with his feet. He played a hell of a game vs Lynch on Baylor who was a 4th rounder this year. He's a guy who I'm really excited about, and I wouldn't be shocked if he's one to make the roster. I love what he brings to the table as a developmental player. You see all the things Campen looks for, snap quickness, lateral agility/explosiveness and grip strength. If I had to guess he's more likely than Roberts to make the team, but both have intriguing skillsets for the scheme. He's another one of those weird guys where he's a blindside RT with a lefty QB. For a guy who has legit athletic testing thresholds and requirements, its interesting to see the guys he brought in since there isn't testing numbers to be had if you didn't go to the combine.
  10. 2020 Draft

    I've said it all along, and I've watched a LOT of Herbert. But he's a guy that if you put the time in and let him develop, you're going to get a really good one. He's got a weird combo of terrible receivers, and zero consistency there (people were in and out of the lineup all year), terrible playcalling, and zero consistency there (had 4 different playcallers throughout the year). His biggest problem is consistency, and it's hard, when there's zero consistency around him. He's a guy that's going to thrive in structure, just based on his makeup and the way that it seems like he processes information. You watch the Colorado game, and he shows the ability to throw with anticipation and throw guys open. Then he loses his 3 top receivers and it all goes away. His best two receivers both played half the season. He was just in a nighmare-ish situation. That said, his consistency and how he works through things needs to be coached up. There's a lot of projection there. But I love the rout that they're taking with him. Let him sit, and absolutely don't force him into anything. That's something that Telesco said to him right away on the call. "Be patient, we're going to sit and let you develop" or something along those lines. He's got everything you want to develop, including the crazy smarts and intellect and the ability to process information, but he needs to learn the how and get more consistent at it. Because his coaching at Oregon was AWFUL. I've always said that he's the kind of guy, who isn't going to beat you out of structure like Rodgers/Mahomes, but he's a guy that's going to consistently win consistently presnap and at the line more like the previous generation of pocket passers. I think it's pretty easy to see him end up very much like Carson Wentz after sitting a year or two. I still he got "be conservative" beaten into his head to a fault by his OL head coach and RB coach playcaller. You have to snap him out of that. But everything about this draft outside of Herbert screamed "win now mode" to me. Moving up to get Murray just screamed "we're 1 piece away" on defense. I think they feel like they can win the same way as the 2010/2011 9ers won. Decent QB play, but elite pass rushing and defense as a whole, on top of a really good running game. We already matched up with the best of the best on offense very well (Mahomes REALLY struggled against us), and on top of that, we took a lot of steps to address our shortcomings in Run D. That kind of physical, athletic and super aggressive LB was a staple in all of Gus' (and Rich Smith's) defenses between Wagner, Telvin and Deion Jones. We got that guy, who's going to really free up a lot of things in the run game IMO. That was the last piece we really needed on defense. He's one of those guys who's gonna be better in coverage in the NFL than he was in college. He's never going to be Fred Warner, but I think he can be a decent zone guy. Every guy has a particular role to play this year, and I don't think it came in the way that sacrifices the future either (we didn't buy ourselves out of future contracts). Playing with a QB on a rookie/low end deal is going to be big for this team with all of the guys coming up for contract extensions. Kelley's going to come in and be a solid guy for a split backfield, Joe Reed is going to come in and be a return specialist and a spot player as a home run hitter on offense. Gilman is going to be a ST's specialist with future value as a Phillips type player. KJ Hill can come in and be a reliable depth receiver like everyone wanted from Artavis Scott, and he has some PR value too. Also side note, but I actually played around with the idea of Gilman at CB. Some teams asked him to play CB at the Senior Bowl. Would be really interested to see what he does. He really fits the mold of a CB in our system and we love guys with real good 3 cone time and SS, who are physical and instinctive. I would be interested if we don't have him playing some CB at the very least in the nickel. But he also could be a 1:1 replacement for Phillips. Either way, he's a guy who's really firey and supposedly a bigtime leader. He also loves to talk trash, so with everyone that hates on him, I would love to see him as a ST's leader and spot defensive player for a long time. I think that'll end up as a really good pick for us.
  11. Day 3 Steals

    I thought it was really interesting that Anthony Lynn compared Joe Reed to Josh Cribbs. I think he's a guy who isn't necessarily going to be a stud on offense, but is going to be an elite KRer and a gadget player/homerun hitter on offense....
  12. 2020 Draft

    Looks like Peterson is saying Simmons or Thomas.
  13. 2020 Draft

    The second KP left I was kind of out on them. The only one that I really liked and thought was good was Michael. The others are too overreactionary and negative for my liking, and I feel like they just made opinions that weren't as well formed and just ran with them and nobody could tell them otherwise.
  14. 2020 Draft

    One of the guys we both talked to regularly was Kyle Posey who for a while had a connection with one of the guys in the war room. So it was a pretty unique look at the draft stuff. I’m sad he’s a niners writer now. He’s damn good.
  15. 2020 Draft

    Rodgers was the one I left off/forgot about. But yeah, over the span of 20 years, you have that many guys. And of those you listed at this point, pretty much 3-4 of them are repalcement level QB's, and 2 of them (Wilson/Jackson) are guys that the talent was just doubted because people have biases against certain traits, so unless you find a revolutionary type player (which isn't anyone in this draft), then you're basically left with Cousins, Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Prescott. So since 96' you have 5 guys who aren't replacement level QB's, and even the guys that were really successful sat behind another good QB for 2-3 years before they started or did anything successfully. If you're hoping to hit on the 1 every 5 years that comes around, then good luck. If you're taking one of those guys, you need to plan not to play them for at least 2 years, if not 3. And on top of that, that means that OVER HALF OF THE LEAGUE has starters that were picked in the top 10... Basically unless you're willing to develop and wait on a guy (and we might have missed that chance), I don't see the value in taking a QB after the top 10.
  16. 2020 Draft

    I think Herbert is a guy that there's so much to unravel with him that you're going to get a wide range of evaluations. Some people are going to see him as the classic, tall athletic big arm QB prototype that failed over and over, and some are going to see him as a guy who got screwed by coaching/talent around him. He's had 4 playcallers in 4 years, almost all of whom are former RB and OL coaches, a complete lack of talent at WR, and the way the offense ran was about as bad a fit as you could get for his skillset. You saw games like Colorado and Washington State where they actually let him open it up, and he looks great. Then you have games like Arizona state where it looked like they said "just don't do anything that loses us this game" all week. And there's so much that rests on your evaluation of what was situation and what was player flaw. I think he's gonna need to sit and watch for a bit, but if you can clean things up, I think you have such a huge upside in a Phillip Rivers type of way, where he's going to murder you pre-snap and with game prep. I think the way that people are talking about "WE ONLY WANT A MOBILE QB" is a little over the top. Lynn came up under Greg Roman and had influences by Payton/Haley, who's a notorious proponent of QB's who can win outside of the pocket. The way he said it himself was something along the lines of "its a rare skill to be able to consistently win in the pocket, and if you can't win in the pocket, you have to be able to win outside of it". I don't think that's the necessity that you need a running QB, but I think he want's a MOBILE one, which is exactly what Tua is. You look at Drew Brees as the model for him in that kind of offense, where he's winning out of the pocket, but they're not having him run much at all. But the talk about taking whatever QB you have later is a little ridiculous, or passing on them and trying to take them later. If you have your guy, and you don't want to take him 6 overall, then he's probably not a guy you're willing to hand your franchise to. Go look up the hit rate on QB's taken in the 1st round after the 10th overall pick. The hit rate is almost non-existant, it's just not worth taking a QB there. Outside of Lamar Jackson, who went outside more because of how transcendent/controversial a player he was, to a team that really wasn't looking for a QB and jumped on talent over anything else. Big Ben, Cutler and Coulpepper are guys that went 11, so I'm just throwing that out as "basically the top 10". The other guys are Flacco and then you have to go all the way back to Pennington for guys who actually held down a starting spot for a while....Basically, if you decide that you're going to "wait on someone" he's not your guy, and there's no point in drafting them uness you're really forcing a QB. And that brings me to Telesco, who I think has done an absolutely impeccable job, especially early, of not forcing things. He has said all along that especially at QB, you have to continuously look, and if your guy is there you have to jump on him. Tyrod is a guy that Lynn really likes, and that gives us the opportunity to put QB on hold if we don't see a guy that jumps out as a franchise QB. If Tua's there, I'm betting hes the pick. But It's entirely up to Telesco and the scouts as to whether they think Herbert or Love is a guy they're confident in and is "their guy". The more I think about it, the more it seems that they'll let Tyrod play out, and the fact that there's a very good QB class, that also consists of mobile/athletic QB's that can win outside the pocket, on the way helps too (though the same was said this time last year about this class), but if we do indeed pick a QB, I think they're very confident that he's their guy long term. If it's not going to be QB, then I don't know where we go. Thomas is probably the safest bet, if it's an OT, I'd bet its him (unless we want to get Wirfs who has elite OG potential too, and see who wins at LT between him and Pipkins). But who knows how they see Simmons or Okudah or even Derrick Brown. With Linval/Harris it doesn't seem like they're jumping on either of those positions, and I really don't like the outlook of Simmons, because you have to look at this as a franchise player, and it's just so hard to pay the elite LB's and IDL's market Value and win long term, unlike with premium positions (you see how it came back to bite the Jags). But it's something you can do temporarily when you have a rookie contract at QB. There's just so many things to think about long term. If I'm taking a non QB there, I would want Thomas over everyone else other than maybe Okudah. But it's just so hard with all of the top players on the board being non-premium position guys.
  17. Sleepers?

    Darnell Mooney has a little bit of John Brown to his game.
  18. With the 221st pick the Chargers select... Kyle Murphy OL, Rhode Island @PR get to it....
  19. Honestly I'm just going to pick someone at this point...lol
  20. I don't like, and our scheme is very averse to very slow, unathletic LB's. I'd rather take the dude from Kansas.....Azuka Azul Kamara or something like that. At this point IMO it's about guys who can play little roles, like a versatile backup OL, H back or LB who can contribute on ST's etc. That's why I'd go with Either Kamara, Keene/Nick Ralston or Murphy. I actually really like Marcus Bailey who's a really good coverage backer but I feel he's redundant to Vigil.
  21. I'm a big Kyle Murphy fan for our OL coach (fits his mold well) so I might take him....
  22. We're on the clock. I was thinkinga about either going someone that's an H Back type like Toamoepeau, Keene, or I guess Breeland. Or someone at EDGE like, i gotta be honest I don't know a single name at edge left, maybe an OL or CB too.
  23. I can understand that stat breakdown, but McFarland barely played through the middle of the season because of a high ankle sprain he got in the 3rd game after he got done running the ball 26 times for 130 yards. I think he had like 20 total touches over 3-4 games, and then was in and out of the lineup a lot. Leake really had 2 games where he did half of his damage, and the rest were pretty meh. I think part of the problem is that he's one of those guys who's got really good vision and all that, but just isn't athletically gifted enough to amount to anything. You can't be a 6' 215lb back and run almost a 4.7 in the league and be a good KR guy. You have to be more explosive than that. If we're going to go with that, I'd rather go a couple rounds higher and grab Antonio Gibson or someone like that.
  24. FFMD II '20 - Discussion / Guidelines

    And we got the other one....right?
  25. I’m busy right now so I’m I can’t really make the pick. Would you mind announcing it over in the GM mock draft thread. I’m on board with all of those. With the run on WRs, Mooney would probably be my pick but it’s good.