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Everything posted by matt79511

  1. QBR =/= passer rating. QBR is scaled out of 100. “Below 70” doesn’t say much, 70 is a decent/pretty good QBR edit: 70 is actually an excellent QBR. https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr
  2. A Year 5 Madden franchise AI signing if I've ever seen one
  3. Wentz got his deal last summer after 3 years as a pro, he and Dak were drafted the same year. He did only have 38 starts though, if that's what you mean by two years- which is kind of the problem here. Dak must feel insulted to see his division rival credited for being on a team that won the SB without him and looking the part while he guts it out week after week for less per year than the top paid guys make per week. If this deal reaches a divorce it'll be hard to say egos weren't a heavy part in it. The rest, fair enough. There's a reason negotiations for Wilson (people forget there were rumors SEA was looking to trade him), Cousins, and now Prescott have all gotten a little haywire compared to most first round picks in the same timeframe.The fifth-year option or lack thereof seems pretty crucial in this respect.
  4. I mean, it's not impossible that we sign him for $40M/yr or so next year, should he quell all doubts with an MVP/Super Bowl in Year 5 (the standard by which all rational teams determine whether or not to sign their franchise quarterbacks to second contracts). But all kidding aside, all that would do is show how foolish the team was to "make him prove it" two years in a row when they could've extended him for much less in prior years and cut the freaking drama.
  5. Yeah I didn't realize the guy I quoted said COVID was the *only* reason, that's obviously not right. Just saying the cap potentially going down next year (while Dak's second tag number is locked in at $37.7M) doesn't *not* factor into this. But really, that would have been motivation to go through it and get both his 2020 and '21 numbers down, if they fully believed in him. The Joneses are also more in the know than we are about the likelihood the season is shortened, how much the cap is going to drop, revenues etc. If it had anything to do with it on the FO's side, I think it's a matter of cash, not cap.
  6. Trading him next year on the tag probably makes more sense than letting him walk in '22. I think, at worst, you're looking at a late-first from a fringe AFC playoff team that could be looking to move on from their starter (IND, NE come to mind). You have to wonder if this team just enjoys being drama queens though and we'll go through this all once more next summer
  7. I know, I just can't help but wonder if, in a normal year, the FO would have caved at the deadline as they have many other times. But, as Barnwell put it in the conclusion of the article I linked, this does ultimately come down to a fundamental disagreement on both sides about the quality of the player and both sides' desire to disprove the other.
  8. I kinda think this too, like that was the final barrier to DAL not caving on 4 years vs. 5. But really, if this is so, they were just looking for reasons not to do the deal
  9. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29467620/no-deal-dak-prescott-cowboys-picking-winners-losers-dominoes There is not enough liquor in the world for this
  10. I see what you’re saying, but again, those seven years and the next three are effectively guaranteed in full, unless Mahomes gets suspended for some reason or they decide it’s worth eating a gigantic roster bonus to move on. The vast majority of NFL contracts are best evaluated in terms of “when is the out year?” because peaks and careers are so short. Mahomes is, in so many ways, the exception to the rule. I don’t think it’s worth speculating if Dak would or wouldn’t take the deal because the Jones family would/will never, ever, ever offer this kind of contract to any player- not even Mahomes. “We’re damn sure not gonna be market setters,” you know? It’s a principle. Even when they do end up making someone the highest paid guy at his position, they haggle and haggle and it goes down to the wire until they cave and barely nudge the market up. If Dak has one foot out the door it is so much more damning of the franchise than it is of him. LAR and PHI had no issues re-signing their QBs because they proved to them that they’re trying to win. For DAL, lapping the field in revenue, avoiding FA spending like the plague, ghosting players and their agents for months at a time while negotiating through the media, trying to argue that players should take less to stay here because that’s the price of being a Cowboy, and winning 3 playoff games in 24 years all the while has caught up to the franchise. We 100% deserve to be ridiculed.
  11. Only because he could go down as the best player in league history. It's an anomaly. No other player in the NFL, now or in the foreseeable future, is getting $30M+ roster bonuses (due in 5+ years) guaranteed two years in advance. It's a mind-numbing paradigm shift
  12. Mahomes' contract is fully guaranteed in practice and incomparable to every NFL contract before it, but sure go on about how his cap hits the next three years make Dak a selfish *******
  13. The dispute over 4 years vs. 5 and how widely that’s been reported makes a lot of sense, though, because without any additional context, it looks like DAL is more committed to Dak than vice versa. But in practice, it’s really a 4-year deal vs. 4 with a team option. We don’t know exactly what either side is proposing, that’s true. We do know that the Joneses prefer to go all the way to deadline on these deals and aren’t above negotiating through the media in thinly veiled ways. The 4- vs. 5-year deal thing is quite savvy in how it plays off of people’s lack of understanding of NFL contracts.
  14. I mean, there's a reason I cited Rodgers and not Brady. I'm aware his/(New England's) record outside the division is superior to inside it, contrary to popular belief, which is untrue of GB under A-Aron. Is Brady the meaningfully better QB of the two, or is the difference here coaching? I would lean towards the latter. And I didn't say it's normal, or preferable, for a good/great QB to be better in the division than outside of it, that's kinda semantical. Rather, if you remove the best 25% of a QB's starts and they're still <.500, they're probably pretty solid, because the league is essentially designed for every team to regress to 8-8. Since 2000, 9/32 teams average 9 or more wins a year, 2/32 average 10 or more: https://i.redd.it/5skbf3i32d841.jpg
  15. I don’t believe that, which is why I didn’t write it. He’s just the first guy that came to mind to support the very bold, borderline audacious thesis of “A QB that beats the snot out of the doormats in his division is more likely to be good than bad.” Of course. But take any QB with, let’s say, 50 or more total starts with one franchise, omit his record against the two worst team in his division, and you will find a shocking lack of bad QBs that are over .500, average QBs that are over .550. I tend to think the obvious gap in the team’s success against divisional/non divisional opponents since 2017 is more a matter of preparation (i.e. coaching) than QB play. I mean our team just seemed totally checked out at times last year, you can’t just put that all on Dak. I suppose this year will bear that out, one way or the other
  16. Rodgers is 78-51-1 (.600) if you take out his games against the Bears and Lions (35-9- .795). Those ratios aren't that far off from 27-21 (.562) and 13-3 (.812). 27 and 21 both start with the number two though so that's all the math you need when you start with a predetermined conclusion.
  17. Yeah I have hard time seeing how CLE gets more than a late Day 3 pick for Njoku, it’s not like he’s done much as a pro. Pretty sure he’s been on the verge of being cut outright at times- maybe it was just Rosenhaus leaking that, but still
  18. Remember when we kicked everyone's butts at this on the old forum Back to back OTs in the 2nd-3rd rounds is a major woof too. Threshold position, just need a baseline level of competence or you'll see diminishing marginal returrns.
  19. Lmfao. I knew this Danny before I clicked the link, he’s such a ridiculous homer It’s our best safety tandem since the 2000s but Woods and HHCD are only decent at best. edit: well I didn’t realize this was coming from PFF but I’m still not buying it. They’re both massive liabilities against the run. Front 7 is gonna have to play a lot better with the back end presumably having to run more Cover 2
  20. I don’t think Dak “gave up his leverage” with this decision at all. Dallas wasn’t afraid of him holding out of camp, that was never going to happen. They don’t want to have to tag him again and he’s telling them he’s comfortable letting that happen
  21. Salute to a class act and genius. I’d wish him good luck, but he clearly doesn’t need it. Man graduated in less than four years with a computer science degree while being a full-time starter for a D1 college football program. I can’t even imagine. It sucks to lose him, but you can’t help but his respect his decision and especially his reason for it- that he knew he’d never again reach his own personal standards and wanted to move on to other walks of life where he could. Tyron may be one of the most impressive specimens to play in the NFL, and Martin may be the guy who pushed our OL over the top, but one could easily argue that Fredbeard was the most transformative player on the OL for Dallas. The immediate stability he provided at C helped take us from a laughable OL in 2012 to a pretty good one in 2013. He made everyone’s jobs easier, there’s no doubt about it. Once more, cheers to one of the greatest players to don the star in my relatively short time as a fan.
  22. I don't know that accidental is the right descriptor. I might go with "unconscious" We all have cognitive biases borne from our upbringings and biological "fight or flight" self-preservation instincts. The important thing is to recognize and fight them. "The first and best victory is to conquer self. To be conquered by self is, of all things, the most shameful and vile." - Plato
  23. Press and media are different though and that's too much nuance for most You can hate CNN or NBC or FOX or do whatever floats your boat, but journalists getting shot by LEO in this country is... new.
  24. This topic would be better with hot bacon grease shot into its eyes
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