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jetskid007

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  1. Someone decided it's OK to delete my posts without holding themselves accountable, which has become a troubling trend. When I considered the overall diminishing content, the inflow of uninformed opinions/statements, how these arguments were starting (as me calling someone out for having an uninformed opinion) to how they were were ending (off topic and crybaby-ish), and finally upon seeing my posts get deleted while a tyrant allowed their own non-football related posts about me remain, I thought, "you know what, it might be my time to move on." Then I wanted to take a peek yesterday, and I was actually impressed with some of the content of the posts, until I saw one which broke every rule of logic out there. I made a harmless post and went back to doing what one does in these quarantine times, until I saw a DM in my emails from a particular individual who seems unhappy with being proven to be so foolish time and time again. I said to myself, "should I just leave, or should I make my point heard with a very intelligent football-related post, which will make this person look like a fool in the process." So I made a decision. If one were to chart the past 10 years of first round picks, here is what the breakdown looks like in terms of safest/most successful position group investments to least successful by charting "successes" as players who were primary starters. Since some of the player's are out of the league right now, Jet X came up with a nifty cumulative "primary starter rate" which is the ratio of total seasons accumulated as a team's primary starter out of possible seasons. My breakdown of each is below. #1 – CENTER (77.4% primary starter rate) Picks: 7 Possible seasons: 31 Seasons as primary starter: 24 (77.4% – 1st) Approximate value: 202 (6.52 per season – 2nd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 3 (9.7% – 3rd) Pro Bowl seasons: 14 (45.2% – 1st) First-Team All-Pro players: 2 (28.6% – 2nd) Pro Bowl players: 3 (42.9% – 3rd) #2 – OFFENSIVE TACKLE (75.6% primary starter rate) Picks: 38 Possible seasons: 225 Seasons as primary starter: 170 (75.6% – 2nd) Approximate value (explanation): 1,278 (5.68 per season – 3rd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 6 (2.7% – 11th) Pro Bowl seasons: 14 (14.2% – 11th) First-Team All-Pro players: 5 (13.2% – 9th) Pro Bowl players: 12 (31.6% – 10th) #3 – SAFETY (71.2% primary starter rate) Picks: 22 Possible seasons: 111 Seasons as primary starter: 79 (71.2% – 3rd) Approximate value: 540 (4.86 per season – 10th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 10 (9.0% – 4th) Pro Bowl seasons: 24 (21.6% – 4th) First-Team All-Pro players: 6 (27.3% – 3rd) Pro Bowl players: 9 (40.9% – 4th) #4 – EDGE (70.2% primary starter rate) Picks: 10 Possible seasons: 47 Seasons as primary starter: 33 (70.2% – 4th) Approximate value: 335 (7.13 per season – 1st) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 8 (17.0% – 1st) Pro Bowl seasons: 18 (38.3% – 2nd) First-Team All-Pro players: 4 (40.0% – 1st) Pro Bowl players: 6 (60.0% – 1st) #5 – OFFENSIVE GUARD (69.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 15 Possible seasons: 88 Seasons as primary starter: 61 (69.3% – 4th) Approximate value: 462 (5.25 per season – 7th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 9 (10.2% – 2nd) Pro Bowl seasons: 24 (27.3% – 3rd) First-Team All-Pro players: 4 (26.7% – 4th) Pro Bowl players: 6 (40.0% – 5th) #6 – 1-3T DEFENSIVE TACKLE (66.7% primary starter rate) Picks: 34 Possible seasons: 192 Seasons as primary starter: 128 (66.7% – 6th) Approximate value: 1,039 (5.41 per season – 5th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 11 (5.7% – 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 29 (15.1% – 9th) First-Team All-Pro players: 5 (14.7% – 8th) Pro Bowl players: 9 (26.5% – 12th) #7 – LINEBACKER (60.0% primary starter rate) Picks: 24 Possible seasons: 115 Seasons as primary starter: 69 (60.0% – 7th) Approximate value: 611 (5.31 per season – 6th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 5 (4.3% – 9th) Pro Bowl seasons: 21 (18.3% – 7th) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (4.2% – 12th) Pro Bowl players: 7 (29.2% – 11th) #8 – CORNERBACK (58.4% primary starter rate) Picks: 38 Possible seasons: 221 Seasons as primary starter: 129 (58.4% – 8th) Approximate value: 970 (4.39 per season – 12th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 12 (5.4% – 7th) Pro Bowl seasons: 35 (15.8% – 8th) First-Team All-Pro players: 8 (21.1% – 6th) Pro Bowl players: 15 (39.5% – 7th) #9 – TIGHT END (58.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 9 Possible seasons: 36 Seasons as primary starter: 21 (58.3% – 9th) Approximate value: 114 (3.17 per season – 13th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% – 13th) Pro Bowl seasons: 4 (11.1% – 13th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% – 13th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (33.3% – 9th) #10 – 5T DEFENSIVE END (56.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 42 Possible seasons: 252 Seasons as primary starter: 142 (56.3% – 10th) Approximate value: 1,267 (5.03 per season – 9th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 13 (5.2% – 8th) Pro Bowl seasons: 38 (15.1% – 10th) First-Team All-Pro players: 7 (16.7% – 7th) Pro Bowl players: 16 (38.1% – 8th) #11 – RUNNING BACK (53.3% primary starter rate) Picks: 16 Possible seasons: 90 Seasons as primary starter: 48 (53.3% – 11th) Approximate value: 457 (5.08 per season – 8th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 5 (5.6% – 6th) Pro Bowl seasons: 17 (18.9% – 5th) First-Team All-Pro players: 4 (25.0% – 5th) Pro Bowl players: 9 (56.3% – 2nd) #12 – WIDE RECEIVER (49.7% primary starter rate) Picks: 34 Possible seasons: 191 Seasons as primary starter: 95 (49.7% – 12th) Approximate value: 902 (4.72 per season – 11th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 9 (3.1% – 10th) Pro Bowl seasons: 35 (18.3% – 6th) First-Team All-Pro players: 3 (8.8% – 11th) Pro Bowl players: 8 (23.5% – 13th #13 – Quarterback (49.0% primary starter rate) Picks: 30 Possible seasons: 157 Seasons as primary starter: 77 (49.0% – 13th) Approximate value: 883 (5.62 per season – 4th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 3 (1.9% – 12th) Pro Bowl seasons: 20 (12.7% – 12th) First-Team All-Pro players: 3 (10.0% – 10th) Pro Bowl players: 12 (40.0% – 5th) Enjoy.
  2. I feel like that's kind of every year, but for me I'm just trying to dot connect as much as possible. The sports marketing firm my cousin is with has close ties to a number of agents and quite a few prospects in this class are their clients. Two of the top 6 "consensus" are in her network, and from what she has heard from agents is that they feel really good about their prospects going in round 1. I guess the logic behind it - valid or not - is that lack of pro days and additional workouts doesn't allow HCs/GMs/scouts to "sensationalize" prospects the way they usually do. For OL it's pretty much you're solid or you're not, unless you have a significant injury history or if you're extremely raw, and the "statistics" say it's the safest position to select in the first round. I think when you factor everything in from different combine format (resulting in a lot of skewed times/non-workouts), lack of normal offseason/pro day circuit, COVID-19 uncertainty going forward, talent pool, need across NFL teams, and it being the largest position group (5 starters), it seems to just make sense
  3. Yes- I think a combination of other teams looking to move up and the allure of a 3rd year option would propel the move. I think they take two guys they value highly and see where each fits best. Bartch's lack of length indicates he's likely best inside at G. He'd likely be a backup for his rookie season, but I think he'd replace either Billy Turner next year since they can get out of the contract, or Jenkins if he moves to C. Corey Lindsay is going to be a free agent after the season. Now I realize that GB has traditionally invested later picks in lineman, but Gutekunst has made it clear that he's not Ted Thompson. He's also shown a tendency to "stack" positions in the draft, but drafting multiple players in the same position group. I think he's going to prioritize the OL more than Thompson did, especially with Rodgers entering the 4th quarter of his career. The one thing that kind of throws this prediction into whack is their need for WRs and the Ricky Wagner acquisition, but Wagner isn't making much and again, the draft is flush with WRs deep in to the 3rd day.
  4. Albert Breer also mentioned that with so much uncertainty in this draft RE: COVID-19 teams are opting for "safer" picks and scouts believe that means "draft big guys" (OL). I've also heard that we could see the most tackles go in round 1 ever. I would think Wilson is a fit for the Seahawks at the end of round 1 given his playing style and their need/infatuation with size-athleticism
  5. I agree. Passing on a WR all together in both rounds would seem tough, but I'm keeping in mind how their administration has sought to build the team (inside-out), Staley's age, Thomas's ability to potentially play guard for a season before moving to tackle, and of course the depth of the draft class at WR as opposed to the scarcity of legitimate tackles. I also considered their current group: Deebo is Deebo, but they seem to really like Bourne, and I'm not sure if they're going to give up on Hurd and Pettis just yet even though usage seems to suggest they could. I think we see a record number of WRs taken in the 3rd-5th rounds, which is part of the reason why I didn't make one lol- becomes too complicated as WRs we had rated in the 6th will come off the board while someone like Bryan Edwards falls out. So if this were to go 7 rounds, I'd probably have them jump up to the 4th by sending a 5th and a future pick to draft an X receiver like Isaiah Coulter or John Hightower
  6. Enlighten us, who would you take - since mocks seem to not fit who you want the eagles to take 🙄 Great work @goldfishwars as always. You cover all the 3 position groups the Joe Douglas has made clear the Jets will go heavy on: WR, DE, OL. Still not convinced the Jets will go WR round 1 the tackles are still available, but it's certainly possible. Terrell Lewis is a player I really want as a fan, but I personally don't think he'll make it to 48. Being said he's certainly someone I'd love seeing in green and white. Just can't teach his traits and while the injuries are concerning, but he's the kind of guy you take a risk on if you're looking to hit a home run. Star potential. A few notes on some Douglas trends as they relate to teams he's been a member of (since 2002): First round: OL most often (4 times) with DE (3) the next most frequent Second round: Douglas always cites Ozzie Newsome regarding his draft philosophy, so one trend to point out that makes sense: Ozzie used 8/17 2nd round picks on EDGE rusher during his tenure as GM (2002-2018). I don't think it to be a coincidence. Third round: Douglas teams targeted OL often in round 3, but DB was the most popular trend (4 safeties, 2 CBs). Fourth round: RB, WR, and DE galore. 6 4th's spent on RBs, 5 on WRs, and another 5 on DEs. Ravens loved stockpiling 4th round picks Fifth round: pretty random - no real trend, but TE was a popular pick. Sixth round: QBs, WRs, and OL most frequent selection. Seventh round: WRs and RBs overwhelming majority
  7. I posted a mock to see if my predictions fall in line with what each fanbase’s respective team would conceivably do in order to compare how accurate I ultimately am; appeasing people isn’t my goal (most fans are not thrilled with every one of their teams picks every year as it is). I’ll take some of the constructive feedback, do more research, and make a new one right before the draft.
  8. To you, and again, I really don’t care what you think. Sorry.
  9. For this one I'm relying on Benjamin Allbright. As we know he was a former poster on here and happens to be very tapped in. He's been rather adamant that the Broncos love Ruggs and may have him as their top receiver. Specifically, he says that Fangio is fond of guys like him for his own team because he knows they're the hardest to defend. When you couple that intel with the very real info that the Jets have been eyeing Ruggs for over a year and the apparent infatuation Adam Gase has with him, I would think the Broncos (holders of 10 draft picks, 3 of which in the 3rd round) would consider making that jump to get a player they're really hot for
  10. I'm saying that the Eagles will really like a playmaker who figures to be a movement Z who can create yards for himself after the catch. I'm saying they will seek out receivers with burst, acceleration, and explosive playmaking ability. Ruggs isn't on the board, so I penciled in a like kind replacement. May not have the 4.2 wheels, but Ruggs and Aiyuk are both big play threats who can be YAC nightmares or beat defenses over the top. I get it if you're not a fan of it, but the way you and @Jeezla dismissed it was as if it was blasphemous. I think it's a realistic possibility despite what some of the "draftniks" like Matt Miller and guys at thedraftnetwork or profootballnetwork say, who contradict themselves every time they post a new mock every other day. Again, totally understand if your not a fan of it, just saying I think it's a realistic scenario.
  11. A former scout who is well respected in the industry and one of the most tapped in draft analysts who has a personal connection with Howie Roseman thinks the player is a clear first round guy, has him rated as his 24th overall player (only 3 spots shy of the 21st pick) and had him mocked 24th in his most recent mock, but a few Eagles fans on a message board think it would be a horrible pick at 21? Please. With all due respect, I'm not looking for everyone to be happy campers. I'm not trying to appease anyone. I'm just trying to predict what will happen. I can't say that I'm sure where Aiyuk will go, but I'm reading the tea leaves. Jeremiah and Dane Brugler (who had the Eagles selecting Brandon Aiyuk in his most recent mock draft) are two of the most respected voices in the draft community and two of the most accurate mock drafters overall. I'm going to trust them and stick with my prediction.
  12. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001108021/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-2020-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-40
  13. https://giphy.com/gifs/shaytards-five-shaycarl-neUgd9l6VHIJO
  14. I was trying to find the right partner. They usually make a lot of deals with the Ravens and I almost had them make a deal there. If Murray were on the board I’d have them move down
  15. Edited. Need to fix this version of the draft.
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