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Awsi Dooger

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  1. How bad are the Miami Dolphins?

    Congratulations. You are another simpleton backfitting moron who has no idea what he is talking about. Classic case of no situational awareness at all. But very typical. I've seen this stupidity recited on one forum after another from numbers nitwits. There is nothing more pathetic in sports than the new obsession with strength of schedule. It is butchered in real time terms far more often than not. Prior to that 1972 season the Dolphins were considered to have one of the toughest schedules in football. It was an ongoing theme on all the preview magazines and televised programs. The opener was at Kansas City in not only an instant revenge game for the Chiefs after the famous Christmas Day 1971 double overtime playoff loss to Miami, but also as the Chiefs opened a new ultra hyped stadium. Consequently the Dolphins were 4 point underdogs in that opening game. On all the talk shows during the preseason and before opening week, Kansas City was a consensus pick. Many analysts were picking the Chiefs by wide margin. After all, the Dolphins had been trounced by Dallas 24-3 in the last meaningful game they played, the 1971 season Super Bowl. Then as now, these was desperation to disbelieve in the upstart Dolphins. That's why almost every public analyst was heavy on Kansas City's chances. The Chiefs were actually a popular pick to regain the Super Bowl title. It was an ultra talented team with numerous eventual Hall of Famers. I always get a kick out of all the numbskulls who place that Chiefs game on the "easy" list, with zero comprehension of how it played out at the time. Miami controlled the game from start to finish. The final score of 20-10 was not as lopsided as the game itself. Kansas City scored its only touchdown as time expired. Two weeks later the Dolphins were also a 4 point underdog at Minnesota. That was a highly anticipated game because beloved Fran Tarkenton was returning to the Vikings after 5 seasons with the Giants. Consequently every Minnesota home game became an energized tribute to Tarkenton. The Vikings were desperate for a home victory because they had narrowly dropped their home opener to an excellent Redskins team, the same team the Dolphins would eventually face in the Super Bowl. That Vikings game was the one game Miami should have lost. No question about it. Minnesota out hit the Dolphins all game long. Larry Csonka was nearly broken in half by Wally Hilgenberg. Only some timely turnovers kept Miami in the game. Then Garo Yepremian somehow connected on a 51 yard field goal in the middle of the 4th quarter. Everyone was shocked. That type of kick was seldom made in those days, especially outdoors at multipurpose Metropolitan Stadium. The score was 14-6 prior to that kick. No 2-point conversion in that era. Very basic: If Garo misses that kick there is no Perfect Season. It ends tamely at 2-1. I always get a howl out of people who condemn Garo for the Super Bowl gaffe, with not one fleck on knowledge that the 1972 Dolphins never earn the legendary status minus Garo's clutch kick at Minnesota. That kick energized the Dolphins. After being stymied all day, Griese drove Miami methodically down the field for a winning late touchdown pass to Jim Mandich...16-14. Now, imagine this toward 2019. Let's say one of the current 2019 teams is 3-0 after 3 games, and 2 of the victories were road games as 4 point road underdog against quarterbacks who were obviously on the way to the Hall of Fame. And yet at the end of the season you have some genius proclaiming that it was one of the easiest schedules of all time. That genius would be laughed out of the room. He'd be an instant fool. Everyone would remember the situational realities of 3 months earlier, when those games were considered likely defeats. But none of that is present with SSS, the Strength of Schedule Simpletons. They can make the world anything they want it to be. They are comically clueless toward place and time. For example, entering 1972 the Baltimore Colts were a long term dynasty, winner of the 1970 season Super Bowl and AFC Championship Game participants in 1971. There was no expectation or logic that they would fall apart in 1972. The first meeting between the two teams was first half of the season. Baltimore was struggling but nobody took that game for granted, given the long term class of the organization. Miami was a very small road favorite. There was tons of talk that the Colts would try to rescue their season by upsetting the Dolphins. Keep in mind there was still tremendous animosity and tension regarding Shula leaving the Colts prior to the 1970 season to take the Miami job. Baltimore saved its best efforts for those home game revenge outings against Shula. Miami was outscored 49-3 by the Colts in the two games at Baltimore among 1970 and 1971. Then in 1972 the Colts were indeed extremely active and motivated early in the game. It was Baltimore's largest home crowd of the season. The crowd was so loud the announcers said they could barely heard each other in the booth. Yet Miami methodically churned out a 23-0 win. I could keep going and going. The 1972 Miami Dolphins were the first team in NFL history to defeat 5 eventual Hall of Fame quarterbacks. And they did it at all stages of those quarterback careers -- Dawson and Unitas near the end, Tarkenton and Namath near the middle, and Bradshaw near the beginning. Three of those victories against Hall of Fame quarterbacks were on the road. I stopped short of saying Miami 1972 remains the only team in NFL history to win 5 games against different NFL Hall of Fame quarterbacks. That was true for a long time but I haven't seen it publicized recently. It is possible it has been matched or exceeded, even though I think I would have heard about it. Obviously a key variable is that the Dolphins went unbeaten with a 39 year old rickety backup quarterback directing most of the games. Age 39 at that point was closer to 45 today. Morrall's frame certainly didn't remind me of Brady or Brees, let's put it that way. The 1973 Dolphins team had a healthy Griese all season. But he was rusty and had an awful season. The 6.6 YPA was by far Griese's lowest for any full season after Shula arrived. There was so much local concern regarding the passing game that it was a huge topic late in the season, until a breakthrough 4 touchdown game in the regular season finale hosting Detroit. It is laughable to claim 1973 as superior. That 1973 team faced a similar early season road challenge as the 2 games from 1972. Instead of underdogs in week 2 at Oakland, the 1973 Dolphins were favored. But they lost the game and were handled most of the way. It ended up 12-7 but never seemed that close. Miami trailed 12-0 in the 4th quarter before a touchdown pass from Griese to Mandich. Late that season the Dolphins traveled to face a miserable Colts team. This time the Dolphins were a double digit road favorite, completely unlike 1972 when it was tiny favoritism. But 1973 Miami sleepwalked throughout the entire game. Never threatened at all. Granted, Griese did not play. But he didn't play at Baltimore in 1972 either. Morrall played again and the crowd was every bit as active as the 1972 home game, but since 1973 Miami had a vulnerability that 1972 Miami lacked, the Colts trampled the Dolphins 16-3. As someone who witnessed all those games and remembers virtually every detail, it cracks me up every time the 1973 Dolphins are asserted as superior. Yeah, the team that got taken apart by a 2-10 Colts team. Yep, that's the Dolphins team I want to hang my mantle on. It makes perfect sense to Strength of Schedule Simpletons. That's the hilarious aspect. They never have the slightest clue. But as long as they have a record book and a gullible public loaded with fellow simpletons, any butchering is readily available.
  2. Seahawks trading TE Nick Vannett to the Steelers

    New Orleans had a ton of energy early, which made a ton of sense given a team of that caliber coming off a defeat. One of the great betting angles is to trust an elite team on the road after a straight up loss. Somehow the mainstream media never mentions stuff like that. Plus the Saints were rallying around a backup quarterback. The Saints got big plays on defense and special teams to build the lead. But once the margin settled then Seattle got plenty of late yardage, leading to misleading stats. Seahawk fans who still want to believe they are a championship contending team will clutch those stats as evidence, even though they were content to ignore the stats in the Bengals game. Dissly looks very good, especially considering the injury he suffered as a rookie. The trade makes perfect sense from a Seattle perspective. As a Dolphins fan I wish Pittsburgh embarked on a semi-tank, just good enough for the 2-5 pick. I'm not sure why that is too much to ask. I'll be in Pittsburgh in late October and want to be entertained by the misery of local fans.
  3. Well done. This is my favorite thread. As a Canes fan and season ticket holder I'll mention that Lawrence Cager looked really good for Georgia at wide receiver. Fromm trusted Cager repeatedly on the late drive that pushed the lead to 10. Cager was always a disappointment at Miami. He played tall and monotone, plus had the drops. I was amazed at how different he looks under Georgia coaching. Now he is considerably more condensed and active at the line of scrimmage, really churning his feet. That style enables much sharper breaks. But he can still play high to his height once the ball arrives. Regarding Paulson Adebo, I should mention that Northwestern is last in the nation at 4.6 YPA. Adebo earned raves for that game early in the season but I'm not sure Northwestern's stationary offense is a valid measure of a cornerback. However, it could also be the reason that Adebo was shell shocked and ineffective, when suddenly he is forced to deal with pass offenses from USC and UCF immediately after facing a joke passing game like Northwestern. I always try to consider situational influence
  4. Official 2020 QB Thread

    Joe Burrow is averaging 12.3 YPA. If he maintains anything close to that pace he is going to be a high first round pick. I've applied that simple formula for years and it has never let me down. It is unbelievable that Urban Meyer stuck with JT "Little Game" Barrett for so long, including when he had Burrow on the roster. That single decision may have changed the course of Meyer's final years at Ohio State, and the college football landscape in general. Barrett would put up sub-5 YPA in major games and I remember one or two sub-4 YPA. He did improve somewhat as a senior. Jalen Hurts holds the YPA asterisk. He is averaging a surreal 14.4 YPA. I believe that is the highest I have ever seen at this point in the season, for a non-option quarterback. No question Hurts looks more relaxed than at Alabama, and with superior touch. But he has to be downgraded, given where he was rated at the end of 2018. Tough evaluation. I wouldn't trust him. Reality is finally catching up with Jake Fromm and his 8.75 hands. I have no idea why it took so long, or how he was up there in the first place. That entire Georgia team suffers from what I would call Razor Ruddock Syndrome...reputation based on two close losses in contests that should have been won. Lotsa luck when that is your calling card. Tua is still averaging 3 YPA above Lawrence, identical to 2018. Lawrence still doesn't have one game on his collegiate ledger that matches Tua's YPA average from 2018 or 2019. The comparisons of Tua to Steve Young are very good. However, I think Young was more wiry and streetwise. He willed himself to bounce off all those Vikings in the late '80s playoff loss to Minnesota, after relieving Montana. You could see the absolute determination in Young's eyes and body language. I don't see Tua ever replicating that. Very smooth player who is rightfully the first pick but I won't be surprised if it takes him some time to adjust to NFL pressure and poundings. Jordan Love without his 2018 running backs is now forced to throw 45+ times per game. That team is still capable within its own league but faces a daunting task a week from Saturday at LSU. It would be interesting in that game if each quarterback switched sides for a half.
  5. The Polls are open; Miami to 0-16 or not 0-16?

    It has to be No To All Three. No thought required. You always want normalcy to work for you, not against you. I bet sports in Las Vegas for 24 years. The guys who succeeded in that realm limited subjectivity and allowed overreaction to work in their favor. The guys who were always broke and begging were the ones who thought they had to watch every game, allow every game to change their mind, and took every projection to the extreme. Those are the ones who would be confidently asserting 0-16. Football with a week between games is ideal for that type. There is a reason ESPN has a weekly segment called, "Overreaction Monday." They are mocking the practice but doing so because they know it is so prevalent in this sport. I'm a life long Dolphins fan but haven't been watching the games this season. Stephen Ross is not my favorite, to put it mildly. Those ghastly uniforms Miami wore yesterday were symbolic of the caliber of decision making during the Ross tenure. I tuned in yesterday for the first time this year, to take a look at Rosen. Anything is preferable to 7 years of Ryan Tannehill. That was beyond hellish. Rosen has more ability, instincts and moxie than Tannehill but is not as accurate. I was not surprised that Xavien Howard struggled so badly. Amari Cooper versus Xavien Howard is a monumental mismatch. One guy has been elite all his life. The other guy is recently made and paid as something he has never been. It's too bad the Dolphins overreacted there, while making so many otherwise astute choices in recent months, dating to the Rosen trade. I posted on this site a couple of months ago that it was a foolish decision to pay Howard all that money, given his resume and lack of ideal frame...only 31 1/4 inch arms. I posted that Howard is a good player but would be viewed as a disappointment in regard to that contract. Not exactly a difficult call. I posted the same on Miami sites regarding Reshad Jones, who may possess one of the most absurd contracts of all time. Paying Jakeem Grant was another strange decision. He needs everything to be going well, not poorly. He would be a splendid occasional weapon on a team like the Chiefs. But to pay him while going through a struggle period is not ideal. Without special teams blocking and without a clicking passing game. Grant's weaknesses are going to show up more than his strengths.
  6. Patriots release WR Antonio Brown

    Well done. The media needs exponentially more influence, not less. One of the great litmus tests of society is opinion of the mainstream media. They are the great protectors. Simplistic angry males are the ones who typically scorn media. Now they try to pretend they can thrive via their own media. Meanwhile, it is difficult to restrain or conceal their true character and caliber. This is merely the most recent example. History will have a field day with this era
  7. Dolphins bench Ryan Fitzpatrick, to start Josh Rosen

    Thanks. I lived in Las Vegas for 24 years and don't remember a week with two pointspreads of this level. As you mentioned, anything 20+ is exceptionally rare. But the league is becoming more and more imbalanced. That was inevitable once they changed the rules to favor the passing game. I predicted it immediately. Teams with elite quarterbacks now have a much less strenuous time winning 11+ games. The old days featured wonderful contrast. You'd have teams conceding they didn't have great quarterbacking, so those teams would be built around brutally physical defense and a relentless running game. Given the right set of circumstances they could spring the upset over the cupcake passing teams. That was the era of "Any Given Sunday." Now that era is basically gone. Everybody thinks they have to throw the ball,. But with the dependable allotment of pathetic quarterbacks you end up with terrible quarterbacks asked to wing it 40+ times. No chance. Also, the change to 4 team divisions was a massive, massive switch in favor of disparity, although that is seldom mentioned. Those division games can be hellish. With 5 teams in each division you'd often have strings of 3 or 4 consecutive division games. Heck, I remember 5 consecutive. That wears out a team, no matter how talented. The opponent simply knows you and is determined to physically pound you, even during a lopsided game. After the string of division games then there was the natural letdown factor in the game immediately following the divisional battles. Now that is basically gone. The 1972 Dolphins (and everyone else) had 8 divisional games among 14. Now the ratio for every team is 6 division games among 16. I am always astonished that the variance is seldom spotlighted.
  8. Cowboys release DE Taco Charlton; claimed by Dolphins

    That's why many Dolphins fans aren't overly excited about the extra draft picks. You've still got Chris Grier making those picks. He apparently loves all these edge types who bomb the analytics. I also read a report today that the Dolphins prefer Justin Herbert above Tua. That would be classic Chris Grier.
  9. Dolphins bench Ryan Fitzpatrick, to start Josh Rosen

    Road game as a 22 point underdog. No problem. BTW, is this the first week in NFL history with 2 teams (also New England) favored by more than 20 points? Probably not. But I'm not sure I remember another example. I haven't been watching the Dolphins games but it seemed like Fitzpatrick was doing a swell job toward that #1 overall pick. That's the only reason I oppose this.
  10. Cowboys release DE Taco Charlton; claimed by Dolphins

    Analytics reject. There is simply no reason to draft an analytics reject so high at that position. The Dolphins made the same mistake with Dion Jordan and again with Charles Harris. Other positions can be debated in terms of analytics applicability, but those change of direction and lower body explosiveness tests really pinpoint edge rush success or failure. No reason to care about the exceptions when the examples are so many. Just because an edge rusher looks like an athletic fit based on subjectivity doesn't mean it will pan out that way if his relevant numbers are ghastly. Waldo was obviously way ahead of the game here years ago. I also like the Common Man Football guy on YouTube because he is the first I have seen who smartly incorporates age of the prospect into his analytic ratings, instead of pretending that a 3rd year guy and 5th year guy should be viewed in parallel. This was Jim Cobern's summary of Taco Charlton in 2017: https://draftcobern.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/2017-nfl-draft-analytics-profile-taco-charlton/ "Metric Analysis: Taco Charlton looks the part from a physical standpoint. But his production and athleticism are significantly below average. And he didn’t meet the long-term starter speed score threshold. Charlton has the overall profile of a reserve to backup caliber player. He has some good indicators, but most of his data profile is just ugly."
  11. Official 2020 CB/S Thread

    Finally. I've been waiting for some real-world reviews of this guy. I keep thinking I'm catching Adebo at his bad moments. Meanwhile there are nothing but bad moments. He doesn't even look the part, not unless I want to draft Lurch at cornerback and tell him to make sure to never look for the ball. Sometimes I think I'm looking at a Taylor Mays version of cornerback. I realize that has to be overly harsh. If Todd McShay and others are hyping this guy as early first round, then there must be something I am missing. But gad am I missing it. I feel like they owe me 25 consecutive great games to balance out all the poor plays and weaknesses I've seen. Right now if my team spent a reasonably high first round pick on Paulson Adebo I think I would want to cry.
  12. That's what I expected...a #2 and a sweetener. I am amazed at the value the Dolphins got in the Tunsil and Fitzpatrick trades. Likewise the Rosen trade. It doesn't matter if that one works out or not. Sending a late #2 for a very young healthy quarterback who was picked 10th one year earlier is a tremendous risk/reward scenario. You just close your eyes and do it. The name of the player doesn't matter at all. I'm thrilled the Dolphins finally understand that type of thinking, instead of a mishmash of worthless subjectivity. That worthless subjectivity and rationalization is what led to 7 years of Ryan Tannehill, the human spare. Also, I don't expect the Steelers pick to be a very high or Top 10 pick. That organization is too solid and the coach too sharp to have a truly dreadful season. I am very content with mid first round for Minkah. Given his less than imposing physical skill set, and essentially a demand to be traded, I never thought it would fetch a #1, let alone a #1 from an 0-2 team.
  13. I hope Grier and the front office are sharp enough to maneuver those picks so this does not curtail as a 1 or 2 year gold mine. Teams tend to get excited on draft day and over value guys in the second round, or even late first round. Miami needs to take advantage of those slobbering teams. Trade a #2 in exchange for the following year's #1. That will always be available if you are patient and don't fall in love with guys in that crapshoot second round. Trade a #3 for next year's #2. It's one of the reasons I am more interested in the extra #2 and #3 picks than the first rounders. Miami has ammo now to allow extra high picks year after year, if this is done correctly instead of a scattergun tunnel vision waste within 2020 and 2021 alone. Just keep making good value investments and everything will fall into place. I lived in Las Vegas for 24 years as sports bettor. Once I learned the concept of value it was amazing how simple everything became. It was shifting the math in your favor. I didn't care if I liked a team or not. If a bizarre bargain was available I'd grab it and allow normalcy to work in my favor. Of course, those were the years with 40+ independent lines in Las Vegas and the sportsbooks didn't communicate with each other, or know what lines each other were using. It was very simple to find amazingly favorable numbers -- and plenty of blatant sportsbook errors -- as long as you did the legwork. These days with corporate mergers and painted lines the guys in that town actually have to pick winners. I feel sorry for them.
  14. Giants Bench Eli, Name Daniel Jones Starting QB

    There's someone with the proper perspective. My dad bought Miami Dolphin season tickets for the family beginning in 1972. I was a young kid but I remember every game. I was wise enough at that age to save countless keepsakes, and still have them. Eli Manning is the second greatest quarterback of all time, behind only Bob Griese
  15. Absolutely correct, as a USC alum and Dolphins fan. Minkah is exponentially more effective the closer he is to the line of scrimmage. Shifty instincts and enough nastiness. You play him there and allow his frame to grow into the role. By far his best play as a Dolphin was when he sniffed out that screen pass from Cousins last year and took it the distance, just as the Vikings were seemingly on their way to a 28-0 lead. Teams are fooled because he is so narrow and doesn't look like a Polamalu or Jamal Adams. Therefore they waste time trying to make Minkah into something he is not. He's never going to be more than somewhat above average if you ask him to cover downfield in traditional fashion. It would be a pure waste. I wasn't paying attention to the Dolphins this season but it is impossible to ignore these trades. Miami hasn't won trades to this extent since very early in Shula's tenure. Just too bad Joe Thomas isn't still there to make the picks. That Miami roster was already loaded when Shula arrived...Griese, Csonka, Kiick, Morris, Little, Stanfill, Bouniconti, Anderson, etc. What happened to the Steelers from a patience perspective? It seems like they went on tilt the year they were so desperate for a cornerback and drafted Artie Burns. How in heck does Artie Burns become a first round pick? I'm a Canes season ticket holder. The guy looked promising as a freshman, specifically when he thumped a field goal off the edge at North Carolina. Otherwise there were obvious weaknesses all over his game. I always thought I was looking at a 3rd or 4th rounder at best. I was literally astonished when there were suggestions of first round status, especially after he bombed the combine and SPARQ numbers so badly. But it seemed like Pittsburgh camped out at every pro day of any second tier cornerback who might be there late in the first round...desperate to force matters with one of them.
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