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Awsi Dooger

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  1. The Dolphins are taking this regression season stuff a bit too far. The 1-4 start didn't surprise me at all. But losing to both Jacksonville and Atlanta is shockingly inept. I expected two wins and one by big margin. At least the pointspread finally caught up. The +2.5 today was extreme value, even though it barely cashed. At the end of the season when I chart every game for pointspread purposes Miami getting 2.5 at home to Atlanta is going to stand out among the top 5-7% value of all games this season. I've done this for 37 years so it's easy to identify in real time. Even if Miami
  2. Good question. I keep looking at the numbers and he's the only one with the gold standard 11 YPA, other than Stetson Bennett.
  3. I have to say that is one of the most unnecessary videos I have ever seen. He wobbles all over the place minute after minute before briefly finally arriving at the correct summary: Freddie Solomon was the vastly superior player. That's why you play him, regardless of anything from last week or anything you momentarily thought or said. If the entire league operated on that perspective instead of absurd overreaction to yesterday, every team would be better off. He actually made the coach look good in the one example he decided to spotlight, despite the mocking tone throughout, and anything
  4. It's a long term move for a Dolphins coach and general manager who suddenly have an accelerated interest in long term employment. I have no idea how anybody could look at the 1-5 record as less logical toward acquiring Watson. Stephen Ross certainly won't view it that way. Besides, you have to take everything Watson is accused of and divide by Jack Easterby. The league understands that. Fans do not. On that side of the aisle anyone is eligible as predator once enough phone calls are made.
  5. No touch. No mobility. An endless string of mindless line drives. That repertoire can dictate a game here or there but no chance long term. Eason reminds me of all the 100 mph quarterbacks who dotted the league when I began following football in the late '60s as a kid. Bobby Douglass howitzers equating to 43% completion average. That's what it would equate to right now if the offenses and rules were still the same. I never understand the attraction toward quarterbacks who can't vary pace and loft to fit the evolving needs of the play. Eason didn't look draftable by that criteria.
  6. Henry isn't anywhere near as agile or adaptable as Jim Brown. As others have mentioned, the league doesn't care about stopping the run these days. This is equivalent to raving about some NBA player who repeatedly sunk 3-point distance shots before there was a 3 point line. Be my guest. Fire away from out there all you want. All time running backs show it early. The raves are immediate. It's not 4th year in the league before your own team decides you need the ball.
  7. The Jaguars really screwed up in that game also. Late third quarter they led 17-13 and had 3rd and 1 at the Miami 10. As a Dolphins fan I'm expecting the automatic quick aggressive run toward Raekwon Davis. He is a big guy but hardly agile and therefore horrible in short yardage situations. Davis had already been abused at the goal line earlier. Actually he's much worse at the goal line than further upfield because he always takes the wrong angle or allows himself to be submarined. Somehow the Jaguars brainstormed the always-clever roll right play. Let's voluntarily cut off half the field
  8. I didn't watch it. I'm not a Titans fan and didn't want to see them win. Buffalo is very good but not awesome. That long winning streak guaranteed that their intensity level would not be close to something like Chiefs at Washington, for example. Elite teams on the road after a defeat is the most dependable scenario in sports. It works in college and pro football, plus college and pro basketball. Now the Bills essentially waste this loss because they have a bye then home game. Once a top team loses you want to look at that schedule and see a juicy road game next.
  9. It was actually 9 with very high juice on the over...-150. The vast majority of online predictions favored the over. I've been aware of regression scenarios for more than 35 years but somehow the concept never enters the thought process among NFL fans. All they look at is personnel and somehow rationalize that all the ingredients toward the overachieving season were supposed to happen and will continue to happen. Brian Flores should not be fired. Flores has made a few mistakes, like the ridiculous punter switch that continues to burn the team every week. Flores is not aggressive eno
  10. I can't see it that way unless Tua isn't close to full health. Miami has a lot of very clever offensive designs. They went down the field twice with ease against the Patriots in the opener. Then all of those wrinkles have basically been absent without Tua. The RPO game was totally shelved under Brissett. However, Parker is out again. Also Howard on defense. Neither one is a surprise. Parker leads the league every season in looking unguardable in a few games and out with soreness in the remainder. Howard knows how to make sure his contract is always based on what he did the season before h
  11. It's interesting that game fell near the number. During all the years I bet the generic classification system, the cutoff point on Cream at Crowd was -7. You had a small historical edge giving the points. But when I put it in action it was trading dollars. Break even in that price range. You had a big edge at -3 or -4 but it really leveled off once it reaches -7. The decisive variable, as always, is what the road team did the week prior. Cream teams coming off a loss have big edge even in the -7 range. But if that Cream team is coming off a victory, and especially a string of victories,
  12. Palardy among the worst punters is absolutely correct and it's been an underreported aspect of Miami's problems this season. Flores got comfortable playing conservatively between his own 30 and opponent's 40 the past two seasons. Haack would reward the confidence via flipping the field or pinning deep. Now Flores is utilizing the same strategy. Palardy botches it time and again. The overall stats may not look vastly different but key moments are not remotely comparable. One duck after another. And it made no sense to begin with. How much money were you saving? Not enough to somehow pursue
  13. No kidding. It's like situational influence doesn't exist. We're in an anti-media age so all the dullards who think that way just pounce without any clue what they are looking at. I couldn't believe it this afternoon when the story was gaining even slightest traction. Adam Schefter is an NFL insider. He is not a probing investigative reporter. To receive early meaningful tips from around the league there has to be give and take. I hope Schefter aggressively responds to this and puts the simpletons in their place. Just because he asked for review of the article doesn't mean he changed anything
  14. I don't care what he wrote. Thinking like that is the issue. The absolute worst people I have ever met in my life express views like that. The Las Vegas sports betting community was flooded with that type of simplistic angry male
  15. Why would it continue to go down? You need to be well ahead of pace so you can afford the logical late season reversion or one or two bad games. Plus deeper in the season it becomes hellish to make up those two tenths. They need several nearby games allowing nothing or next to nothing to end up at 2.7
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