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Awsi Dooger

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  1. That game was classic situational influence. An 0-2 road team often has extreme energy and intensity level because there is such a vast difference between 1-2 and 0-3. Consequently there are frequent results that deviate wildly from expectation, like Buffalo's blowout at Minnesota in 2018 as 18 point underdog. The Bills won by three touchdowns. Road teams coming off a loss historically do much better than road teams coming off a victory, in terms of pointspread expectation. The bottom line is 54% of road teams coming off a defeat cover the spread, compared to only 45% of road teams coming off a victory. At home it really doesn't matter if you are coming off a win or loss. But every home team should always hope that it's opponent wins the prior week. You'll get a less desperate opponent. That's why the 0-2 road team can have such unusual energy level. It's already a high energy scenario while coming off a defeat, and when you combine the specific aspect of 0-2 then the advantage can be to extreme. Obviously this doesn't work every time. But as someone who lived in Las Vegas for 24 years betting sports, it was a well known trend that the wise guys took advantage of. For whatever reason the mainstream media is totally clueless regarding situational variance. The only problem with tonight's game was the short week. I made a smaller wager than the norm since the 0-2 road advantage conflicted with the road Thursday disadvantage.
  2. I can't believe I'm reading about Al, Dan and Frank. But I guess not many here are old enough to remember Howard, Don and Keith. The first season Keith Jackson was play by play. Then ABC grabbed Frank Gifford away from CBS a year later. BTW, the first game Jets at Cleveland is famous for the Don Meredith line about never meeting a Fair Hooker. That was the name of a Browns wide receiver. In recent years some young goofs on certain websites have written articles and tried to pretend it was all invention, that Meredith never said it. That is 100% garbage. Meredith absolutely said it. I remember it plain as day because it was a strange comment and at 10 years old I didn't know what it meant, but my dad burst out laughing. He was in a recliner. I was laying on the couch. I remember turning and looking at him as he roared. Then the following day at school kids were talking about it and I got the gist of the meaning. The comment was instantly famous. If a tape surfaced without the comment then it's not the version that ran in real time.
  3. As a '72 Dolphins season ticket holder when I was a kid it was awesome to see you guys ruin his perfect season. In fact, I remember registering on Chiefs Planet to compliment you guys. Everybody jumped all over me. It was priceless. The Chief fans were every bit as jealous of the Dolphins' feat as everyone else, so they didn't want to have a Miami fan in there squawking in approval. Actually I think a season like this is by far the best chance of the Chiefs or somebody else running the table. No pure road games really diminishes the natural obstacles. Anyway, I'm not surprised Rodgers did some self evaluation. I posted in this thread recently and in the Draft Forum months ago that the Jordan Love selection was the most ineptly evaluated draft pick of all time. The Rodgers decline and malaise had gone on so long with no end in sight that the only logical move was to make him feel threatened by drafting his potential replacement. That move offered at least 10x the potential than drafting some wide receiver or similar patchwork.
  4. Did he attend a rally? That sounds like a COVID remedy
  5. This thread is long past overdue. In recent years it's been absurd hesitancy to define Aaron Rodgers toward how he's actually played the past 5 years. There have been some tentative articles by Bob McGinn and not much else. The Jordan Love selection was the most ineptly viewed draft choice of all time. I posted that here and elsewhere. The last thing the Green Bay Packers needed was a wide receiver or some complimentary piece. They needed to smack Aaron Rodgers in the head to determine if he actually has any intention of devoting to the game and returning anywhere close to his peak form. Basically all Rodgers has done the past 5 years is say all the right things on Saturday from the 17th tee of that Lake Tahoe celebrity golf tournament in July, and make some occasional wow throws, while otherwise making sure the underachieving gear is chosen 80% of the time. We might as well be raving about Ryan Lochte
  6. Yeah, it's a riot when the young stats guys try to pretend they have any clue about that era. The 1978 rules changes opened things up but it was even more condensed and physical prior to the so-called Isaac Curtis Rule in 1974. I used to absolutely love it as a kid in the Orange Bowl when Curtis Johnson and Tim Foley would immediately wipe out the opposing wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, taking them out by the legs as soon as the ball was snapped. A leggy rookie like Isaac Curtis was such easy prey we were literally in hysterics during that playoff game. Kenny Anderson was dropping back to throw with his top guy sprawled on the Poly Turf. Unfortunately it was so blatant the announcers made a big deal out of it, leading to the rules change the following offseason. The star rookie Curtis going deep against the Dolphins was one of the anticipated matchups of that game, but since he was physically abused he was no factor at all, with one insignificant catch. Anyway, Drew Pearson was always considered a Hall of Famer during that era. Summerall and Brookshier took it for granted on CBS telecasts. Pro Football Weekly raved about Pearson every season during the mid to late '70s. If the voters went back and read those articles this would have happened a long time ago. Pro Football Weekly was the first publication that devoted to scouting as well as traditional analysis. They had the first draft guide and they included personnel recaps during every issue. Pearson was praised for everything he did away from the ball, which was huge for a wideout in that era. Of course, we had no idea the game would change so severely via those 1978 rules changes, and then the Bill Walsh impact. That's what skewed everything in favor of the numbers guys from the '80s forth, and leaves some earlier guys relegated lower than they should have been, including Pearson. I think he would have been in a long time ago if Dallas had won either of those two Super Bowl meetings with Pittsburgh, both 4 point games that came down to the wire.
  7. Charts like that are passed around on certain partisan websites, designed for minions to spread. It is the latest failed deflection. We need to be looking at coronavirus as if this were 2040. Given the clarity of 20 years from now with death numbers known and various survivors dealing with lung issues, kidney issues, liver issues, stomach issues, heart issues and brain issues, nobody would believe that anyone in summer 2020 actually gave a flip about resuming football or any sport. Here is a National Geographic article from February 18. Nothing was a mystery. I realize many posters will be too scared to read this. Others will note how incredible it is that we ever reached this point: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/
  8. Not good but entirely logical and predictable. Somehow this was being treated like a frozen dinner where you invest a certain amount of time and then it's done and dandy. The football demographic is not going to fare well in evaluating something like this. That was a guarantee from the outset. I emphasized it on many sites. College will be worse than pro and college football fans will be worst of all. It is begging for disaster if college football stadiums are open for business as usual, given the dismissive attitude that will prevail.
  9. It will be decades before the true death rate is known. And it will be exponentially higher than any of the current estimates. From the outset there were indications of lung scarring among survivors, even from young survivors. I watched a panel of doctors discuss this way back in March. You could tell by the look on their faces that what they were seeing on the scans was ominous down the road. Young people are kidding themselves if they think this is no big deal simply because they can thwart it off now. These are the only organs you'll ever own. I have always looked at it this way, as a handicapper: If this hasn't happened in a full century, that's all you need to know. The extreme is going to prevail. Anyone who errs high is going to be correct every step of the way and anyone who errs low is going to play the fool. From anecdotes I have read on many sites for weeks, Texans have been dismissive and erring low. I am not surprised by these numbers. We are in early stages of this
  10. You just described why I wont be attending. No chance. The demographic who attends sporting events is the same demographic who didn't take this seriously throughout. It is absolute guarantee they will flaunt that dismissive attitude in crowded stadiums, if given a chance. It would be even more prevalent in college games than the NFL. I would be exponentially more likely to attend an event primarily populated by women and not men. Throughout this pandemic men have taken it less seriously, both beforehand and once they have developed symptoms. Men don't honor social distancing as dependably. Etc. etc. All of the studies have been 100% predictable along those lines.
  11. The two conferences evolved totally differently. The NFC was stocking up on big physical athletic ruthless linemen and linebackers while the AFC used the 1983 draft to rationalize that it should play cupcake football, a full 25 years before cupcake football would be rewarded by the rules changes. Consequently it was one refreshing NFC massacre after another. I loved it and hoped it would never end, even though I was a Dolphins fan. I was living in Las Vegas and wagering on sports. You could plan your entire year around stocking up on Super Bowl props focused on NFC dominance. Every year there would be hype that this season would be different. There were always bargains available during midseason once some AFC team feigned legitimacy. AFC football during that time frame was an absolute insult to anyone who was old enough to witness the physical run oriented '70s. That's why I've never been a Dan Marino fan and am flabbergasted that any Dolphins fan has positive memories or impressions of that era. We were laughing at the cupcake teams during the early '70s then volunteered as a cupcake team in the mid '80s and remained there for a full decade. It is still disgusting every time I think about it. Fortunately the Canes saved the day with physical play on both sides of the ball. It is very true that Denver's running game with Terrell Davis is the variable that ended the NFC's dominance. If that had been merely another AFC pantyhose passing team then Green Bay would have waltzed. It is the reason I always have to laugh at Aaron Schatz and the gang at Football Outsiders for their numbers-only totally clueless interpretation of NFL football, especially regarding the impact of the running game and in decades before they were old enough to know what was going on from a situational perspective.
  12. My comparison to Trevor Lawrence is Rory McIlroy. You have to follow golf closely to understand that, but it fits. McIlroy has the most gorgeous driver swing and tempo and ball flight of all time. When course conditions favor the driver and McIlroy is clicking, he can look absolutely dominant. It led to 4 majors early in his career and projections that he might reach Tiger Woods or even Jack Nicklaus. But once that driver is not dictating, McIroy can look incredibly ordinary. Follow him on the course and it's astonishing how many weaknesses he has and how many stupid mistakes he makes. That Alabama game shoved Trevor Lawrence to sharply inflated status because the driver was allowed to dictate. All game long. And especially those deep sideline passes that the OP spotlighted. Ross and Higgins were making circus catches sometimes a yard outside the boundary. Those plays hardly translate game after game yet somehow every fan assigned it as Trevor Lawrence's forever normalcy. In the recent championship game against LSU the final 20 minutes or so could not have been more boring. It was exactly like the familiar sight of Rory McIlroy missing one green and putt after another. The deep sideline stuff wasn't working yet Lawrence forced it continually. One hopeless 25 yard line drive after another. I was literally clicking the channel to true crime programming, only to return just in time to see another Lawrence errant throw. He was barely 50% completions in the two playoff games, and for a pedestrian 7 yards per attempt. IMO, one of the absolute crimes of recent college football was Clemson's late rally to defeat Ohio State. That Buckeye defense versus Burrow would have been fascinating. Instead you had an overmatched young Clemson defense and an overconfident quarterback. Lawrence seemingly had no clue what he was facing in LSU and Burrow. That game mandated seizing control of every opportunity and building a huge lead, then hoping to hang on for dear life. Instead Lawrence wasted several early possessions in favorable field position while Burrow was backed up. How long was that going to last? I didn't see any sense of urgency from Trevor Lawrence at all. It was like he fully bought into his own press clippings and somehow assumed the driver would rescue everything and it would merely be another second half stroll. I prefer Lawrence over Fields. I should have opened with that. Ohio State quarterbacks have it incredibly easy, as BleedTheClock pointed out. All the underneath crossers opening up downfield daggers. Very clever designs. JT Barrett was inept. It should be impossible to average below 7 YPA in an Urban Meyer offense. Yet somehow Barrett managed it...twice. Haskins does not have enough athletic ability to be an ideal Buckeye quarterback in this era. Fields is a step up. He is indeed like a shorter dumpy butt version of Cam Newton but without as much swagger. Perhaps not as much clutch. That was an incredibly idiotic forced interception. I believe it was only second down. Plenty of time on the clock. The problem with Lawrence is that his 15 yard throws are identical to his 25 yard throws. Same string. It's not 100 mph happy like Herbert or Eason but Lawrence doesn't have anything close to the touch or variety of a Joe Burrow. That's why the rest of his game often fails if those deep daggers are taken away. Lawrence would actually be better off if his arm strength were more like Peyton Manning. He had the same initial trajectory as Lawrence but the ball would drop in mid flight, to the point the 15 yarders and 25 yarders had ideal settlement. Lawrence too often is dependent on a winged receiver making a circus grab. The Ohio State game was actually a lot more pathetic than it looked. Lawrence had nothing once Higgins was struggling, so he resorted to running the ball. That's not going to translate to the NFL. Plus he has the leggy frame and javelin thrower form. Big target area. I'll be surprised if he avoids injury much longer. I would draft Lawrence first. I learned a long time ago that even if I have questions about an elite prospect, the guy will succeed if he has been a lifelong prodigy as opposed to a late bloomer. Lawrence certainly was a prodigy. I just don't see the entirety of his game as awesome. Lawrence is much more accurately evaluated if the Alabama game is ignored. However, the driver is a wonderful tool to have. McIlroy isn't close to projections from 10 years ago but he was PGA Player of the Year in 2019. The driver allows Lawrence to look very ordinary for long stretches -- like the North Carolina game last season -- and then change course immediately with one huge play.
  13. Absolutely. The Dolphins repeated the same mistake they made with Dion Jordan, who was another edge rusher reject based on all the tests that project so well to that position. The top guys on the draft forum of the Dolphins site Finheaven were in absolute horrors over the Harris pick, especially with T.J Watt just sitting there. He was the exact opposite of Harris. All of the analytics screamed that Watt had ideal athletic traits. Taco Charlton was also projected to bust, although not nearly to the certainty of Charles Harris. I'll post those summaries from SackSEER below. I am happy the Dolphins didn't allow Harris to make it to camp. It would have been a waste of time. He was borderline for a 2019 caliber Dolphins roster. Now that it's a step upward he doesn't belong. Basically the only thing he can so is a moderate speed spin move that fools nobody and is hilarious when he attempts it again and again, as the tackle mostly laughs at him while waiting for the spin to finish. Just yesterday on Finheaven I posted that Jason Strowbridge, the 5th round pick out of North Carolina, has plenty of flaws and is not anything special, but at least he's better than Charles Harris. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2017/sackseer-2017 BUST ALERT Charles Harris, Missouri SackSEER Projection: 14.8 Sacks Through Year 5 SackSEER Rating: 17.5% Every year, SackSEER breaks from conventional wisdom on at least one highly-rated edge rusher, and this year that player is definitely Charles Harris. From a SackSEER perspective, it is hard to see what would justify Harris as a first- or second-round pick, as most analysts project. Harris was not unusually productive, nor was there any spike in production near the end of his college career. Harris had nine sacks in 12 games during his junior year. Those are certainly not horrible numbers, but they are not significantly better than numbers posted by Tyus Bowser, Takkarist McKinley, or Jordan Willis. Harris is undersized at 253 pounds, but he had a combine more consistent with a 280-pound run-stuffer. Harris was below average in every drill that matters to SackSEER, including a 4.82-second 40-yard dash and a 7.47-second 3-cone time. Why is an undersized edge rusher with vanilla college production and poor workout numbers considered a potential first-round pick? One answer is that he has a good reputation for athleticism despite his poor combine performance. The anecdotal evidence of what a great difference between "perceived" and "measured" athleticism means is mixed. Players such as Carlos Dunlap and Jason Pierre-Paul were lauded as athletic "freaks" who put up mostly average to below-average workout numbers, but nonetheless became strong players. On the other hand, Quinton Coples and Da'Quan Bowers, two players who had reputations as "freakish" athletes, posted poor workout numbers and ultimately had little impact on the NFL level. Taco Charlton, Michigan SackSEER Projection: 20.8 Sacks Through Year 5 SackSEER Rating: 47.3% Taco Charlton is widely recognized as a "one-hit-wonder" who was dominant for the Michigan Wolverines in his senior season, but could barely crack the lineup during the first three seasons of his college career. Scouts are likely intrigued by the prospect of combining Charlton's ideal size (6-foot-6, 273 pounds) with the pass-rushing production he displayed as a senior. SackSEER is highly skeptical of players who are one-hit wonders, especially those who break out during their senior seasons. College football players are more experienced and developed as seniors than at any point in their careers, and are often lined up against less experienced and developed sophomores and juniors. This advantage is completely reversed when those senior players are drafted and become NFL rookies. Indeed, history suggests that many of the players who dramatically overperform as seniors may have simply had a lucky season or are naturally inconsistent -- neither of which bodes well for Charlton's prospects. Charlton's case is eerily similar to 2003 Bears first-round pick Michael Haynes, who was an even more extreme example of a late bloomer. Haynes had only four sacks as a junior player, but recorded an amazing 15 sacks as a senior. Haynes tipped the scales at 281 pounds, teasing scouts with his potential to combine great pass-rushing with ideal run-stopping size. However, Haynes also fared poorly in pre-draft workouts. Haynes ran the 40-yard dash in 4.87 seconds, recorded a below-average 30.5-inch vertical leap, and broad-jumped only 9 feet, 1 inch. Given Haynes' pedestrian first three seasons, and a combine performance that corroborated the less impressive section of his career, scouts should have realized that Haynes was simply not a first-round talent. Similarly, Charlton ran the 40-yard dash in 4.92 seconds, even slower than Haynes. Charlton performed better than Haynes on the vertical leap and the broad jump, but he was still below average on both for a drafted edge rusher, let alone a possible first-round pick. To top it off, Charlton recorded only two passes defensed while at Michigan. Considering all of the evidence, Charlton provides several pieces of evidence suggesting that he may be a bust (his freshman season, his sophomore season, his junior season, his poor combine performance, and his poor passes defensed rate) and only one piece of evidence that he may be a success (a strong breakout senior season). Other prospects have certainly overcome these challenges before. Tamba Hali in particular had a late breakout season and below-average workout numbers, yet became a star. However, for every Hali there are three players like Michael Haynes, making Charlton an extremely risky play in the first round.
  14. I would ignore the returner aspect. That became a convenient reference point late in the season and leading up to the draft because he broke a couple of long ones and his stats look good. But overall he is not dangerous return guy. One gear and not particularly elusive. He's a weaver with good instincts. Obsborn wasn't even being used there by Miami until others disappointed like Jeff Thomas. KJ Osborn transferred from Buffalo and instantly became one of the most respected and popular members of the team. He became a fan favorite largely because of that aspect and how it contrasted to so many recent goofballs the Canes have had, including Thomas. Not only a well spoken team captain type but also a solid route runner with sticky hands across the middle. He caught the back of the ball on some slants early in the season, which also led to his popularity because it was so stunning given the dropsie receivers Miami has fielded of late. However, just when Osborn got the reputation for great hands he had some inexplicable drops in easy situations, like quick outs with nobody there. Osborn does not play as fast as his timed speed. He probably got drafted due to that sub-4.5 clocking. Canes fans thought he was more of a 4.6 type. That's what it looks like on the field. But Osborn is so dedicated I know darn well he worked on his start technique and everything else to squeeze the last hundredth out of his body.
  15. I felt bad for Jordan Love because I think he's capable of playing at a high level long before he'll ever have the opportunity in Green Bay. However, that pick was the most ineptly analyzed choice in the entire draft. Green Bay didn't need another wide receiver. They needed Aaron Rodgers to wake up and realize he's been coasting for years. I provided those numbers the other day. That was the benefit of drafting Jordan Love...an opportunity for a self-aimed kick in the pants from Rodgers.
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