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Awsi Dooger

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  1. I thought the 49ers had a great chance due to contrast. When I was a kid contrast defined the NFL. That's when Any Given Sunday was legitimate. You had passing teams and blue collar running teams, and would face them on an even and alternating basis. These days due to the ridiculous rules changes coddling the passing game there is no contrast. It is one pantyhose passing team after another. That's why the top teams in the league win 13+ games even without looking dominant. All they have to do is dismiss some stupid team trying to play the same way they do, but with a markedly lesser quart
  2. That's where I am. Tampa Bay has demonstrated vulnerability. You can't throw that away as if it never happened. The variables that contributed to the lopsided defeats and 5th seed are still there. As a gambler you always want outliers working against you, not for you. A 43 year old quarterback winning the Super Bowl would be an extreme outlier. Therefore I want the sportsbook to have the side of the wager that needs the 43 year old. That type of philosophy won't win every time but if you continue to apply logical generalities like that it's way ahead in the long run. The team
  3. Brady's arm strength has held up late season far better than last year. That's the only aspect that has surprised me. He throws too many of those 30-40 yard loopers now, even when there's nothing there. I hadn't seen that until this season so it's difficult to evaluate. Teams very seldom win three consecutive games as underdog. That's the way I look at the Super Bowl. Just check the respective pointspreads the two teams have played to, and now the one with the elevated resume is only -3. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. Generalities overwhelm specifics.
  4. I don't care about the Chiefs unless they go unbeaten. Otherwise I kind of like them because every time the spread is low you can back them with confidence since they simply don't lose. I'd like to bet Kansas City -3 hosting Buffalo every day for the rest of my life. It's still difficult to believe that game was somehow viewed as basically equal teams.
  5. I thought that was one of the least suspenseful conference championship games in recent memory. There was no contrast. No contrast means no chance. Two similar teams with one team markedly superior in every category. I have no idea how that pointspread was only -3. That's basically saying these are even teams. Kansas City is one of those teams that wins small when you make them a big favorite and wins big when you make them a small favorite. But when they are a small favorite essentially you are merely asking them to win the game. That means there is no thought process involved. I m
  6. Yes, nothing has changed. Campbell was popular with players and fans as interim head coach. Lots of Miami fans wanted him to get the job full time. But he always seemed like more of a caveman type than someone who could match wits with the sharpest franchises and coaches in the league. Maybe an NFL version of hiring Ed Orgeron, if I had to compare. But college it's far simpler to monopolize elite talent and prop a coach like that.
  7. Kansas City is going to own an extreme energy advantage to begin the game. The Bills won't anticipate that and it's going to take them time to cope and adjust. Need to keep it off the scoreboard. Kansas City as defending champion already had surreal motivation to verify the pecking order, against a team receiving tons of hype. But when you add the road victory at Buffalo then the energy advantage to begin the game explodes in exponential fashion. Fury of Anti-Revenge (FAR) is the most powerful wagering angle I became aware of during 24 years in Las Vegas. Beat a team at their place -- especial
  8. Today's NFL is a joke compared to the era I grew up with. I feel sorry for any young fan who doesn't comprehend how pathetic the sport is now, forced to evolve into nothing but a pantyhose passing league. You can't blame coaches for taking advantage of these rules. But let's not ignore how laughable it is that a team with as many blatant flaws as the Chiefs can win 24 of 25, or whatever it is. In the era I grew up with that could never happen because Mahomes and all of his toys would have been ruthlessly battered game after game. The league wouldn't tolerate a cupcake team like that. Blue coll
  9. I agree it was pressure only the first game. And they played like it. Buffalo was absolutely the darling team and cute pick. On multiple sites I've seen them receive equal or greater boost than Kansas City toward Super Bowl likelihood. Nobody was saying that about Cleveland.
  10. The announcers didn't even question the punt in the Titans game. That was the most absurd aspect. Steve Levy said here's the punt then described it. At least Collinsworth condemned the decision while Al Michaels predictably leaned toward it being correct. So many things have to go right if you surrender the ball. Somehow the coaches and many analysts don't grasp the burden. It's like hitting a parlay as opposed to merely hitting the straight bet of converting a first down.
  11. Chase Young looked exactly the same as the college semifinal versus Clemson. Tons of commentator hype. Not much going on. Very good player but simply not explosive enough to dominate off the edge. You can see why his high school 40 and vertical results were so mediocre. He's far superior at the bull rush than around the corner. It was hilarious with Heinicke on social media. He was the darling during the game then they immediately turned on him after the game.
  12. I think you are understating Sanders. He is hardly some random kicker. Sanders has flawless alignment and mechanics. That's why he hits the same ball flight every time. It is shocking when the ball doesn't start at perfect trajectory and direction. Slight draw. There is no question Sanders' ball flight is more consistent and ideal than Tucker, who can get into a habit of coming across the ball causing a left to right path that is hardly ideal and reduces margin for error. Tucker gets away with it because he understands his path and compensates via aim. I spent 24 years wagering on sports
  13. The Rams have had a heck of a lot more than that. Long string of shifty productive halfbacks like Jon Arnett, **** Bass and Wendell Tyler. Heck, I'll keep going with John Cappelletti, Willie Ellison, Cleveland Gary. Seemingly all my life the Rams have had good productive running backs for 3-5 year spans
  14. Nick Saban had plenty of leadership, if he also had Drew Brees. Urban Meyer learned from Saban: Don't jump in unless you have the quarterback. An elite quarterback is the only NFL variable that resembles a dominant recruiting base in college. The problem Saban had in the NFL was he was a grotesque human being who couldn't tolerate that reporters were allowed to stand there and question him on equal ground. It was fury and steam. Hilarious. It especially galled him that he was vulnerable to scrutiny after defeats. That's why Little Nicky was desperate to return to a sheltered college envi
  15. Made no sense. Dolphin fans have an annual ritual of insisting the offensive coordinator is the worst in the league. The only time it wasn't heard was 2019 under O'Shea
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