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Everything posted by Hukos

  1. Good pass rushes aren't built on 1-2 guys but more about roster depth. You can have an elite DE and an elite DT and still have a bad pass rush if the rest isn't up to snuff. What I was arguing for wasn't a path for the Falcons to have an elite pass rush, but make the move to being decent/average (which is about the best they can do). The depth we have at pass rusher is pretty bad. Let me make this clear, even if the Falcons hit and hit hard on a pass rusher at 1.16 and both Fowler/Jarrett play at an elite level in 2020 - the pass rush could still be terrible for the reasons that I mentioned. Don't forget, secondary is a huge liability for Atlanta now that we've let Trufant go (unless you suddenly think that Isiah Oliver is suddenly going to stop being trash). Even great pass rushes can get murdered if the secondary can't hold up since QBs can just do easy dump-offs since corners aren't holding up on routes. This whole set of moves from the Falcons just screams throwing darts at the wall and seeing what will stick. There doesn't seem to be much of a consistent plan or ideology here.
  2. Run defense was the one area on defense the Falcons didn't need help with.
  3. I don't think Dan Quinn is a particularly effective evaluator of talent - if this signing or other moves haven't made that clear enough anyway. I agree with you, but he thinks he's probably smart enough to get away with this, when he's not.
  4. Well of course I hope it works out but knowing the Falcons history... this one is going to look pretty bad in a few years. What the Falcons should have done is kept Trufant on the roster, dug up some bargain bin pass rushers who can at least be bodies that you can rotate in and out of (they aren't going to be amazing players but with a rotational pass rush you won't be horrible) and then double down on drafting the best pass rusher at 1.16. The Falcons still wouldn't have had an elite pass rush but you could go from being bad to being average that way. Now that Trufant is gone, I think this signals to possibly pivoting to a CB at 1.16 because they have essentially no depth at that position and their starters are unproven commodities.
  5. Okay yeah, the Falcons basically blew their load. Well it was nice knowing Dan and TD. Time to look at 2021 Head Coach and General Manager candidates I guess. We have Grady Jarrett who has been very disruptive, but that's it. I think this is more about signaling to the fanbase that they care about the defense. IE "we fixed the pass rush now guys!". Even though the pass rush still needs another 3-4 bodies to fill. The Falcons grossly overpaid on this move. Matt's basically got to play at a top 3 level in 2020 if we want to even just sniff a wildcard.
  6. Don't like it. A single pass rusher isn't going to change the Falcons fortunes on defense (they need quantity more than anything else), and I suspect that we grossly overpaid for Fowler. I've never been impressed with Fowler's work, and I expect him to be mediocre in his time in Atlanta. I would legitimately rather have Trufant on the roster than Fowler. I'll be a bit more optimistic if they got Fowler on the cheap, but I expect that the Falcons basically blew their load so they can say to the fans "look, we fixed the pass rush!" and then go on to have a mediocre draft before being fired.
  7. Oliver looked nice in 2018 in limited snaps. He was legitimately one of the worst corners in the NFL until we started playing a bunch of terrible QBs. Sheffield was nice in some limited play, but you seriously trust him to take on the CB2 role? We played a bunch of trash QBs in the 2nd half of the year (Kyle Allenx2, Minshew, etc.) - it didn't help the that the good QBs we played had some truly horrific performances against us that were more aided by Grady Jarrett being a complete animal. I don't think that's replicable. I don't think the 2nd half improvement was really due to a miraculous change in the x's and o's of the Falcons. I think the team just lacks a lot of talent on defense - and when they did look good it was because the pass rush played far above their station (Grady Jarrett being amazing and other guys picking up the slack, basically). Look at the 1st game against Tampa Bay - the pass rush had been dominant for two straight weeks... and they basically got shut out against Tampa. What happened? The entire defense was getting torched. I don't think that game was an aberration either, I think it was a very clear and serious red flag about how the Falcons defense is constructed. What that game told me was: if the Falcons don't have an elite pass rush, they can't even put up a replacement level defense. Making the secondary worse on paper to me is only going to make that problem even worse. If you really trust Oliver to be CB1 and Sheffield to be CB2, you've got a lot more faith than I do. I think 2020 will be very difficult for the both of them.
  8. I really hate this move because I do not trust the young corners we have on the roster. I've seen nothing from them that would indicate that they would make the step into being anything more than replacement level dudes. I'm mentally prepared for the Falcons have a complete disaster of a defense in 2020.
  9. Go back and watch the Texans/Falcons game and tell me that with a straight face.
  10. That's true for most teams. That's not true for the Atlanta Falcons.
  11. Neal is coming off significant injury and you expecting him to play at even replacement level in 2020 is wishful thinking. Realistically, his play will probably be mediocre given his injury history. Kazee is awful. Kazee literally can't tackle to save his life. Allen did an okay job in 2019 and is generally above average but you can improve upon him. Acting like Safety isn't a pretty significant need will lead to a lot of shockedpikachu.jpg moments in 2020 when the entire secondary is getting roasted by pretty average WRs.
  12. I don't hate getting a Tight End. I hate that it's a 2nd round pick. That pick should have been a Safety or a Corner, not a Tight End. The Falcons had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season (The 2nd half improvement was a fluke, as far as I'm concerned and that won't be replicated) - you badly needed to upgrade a lot of pieces on your defense. Here's to the Falcons again having a bottom 5 defense in 2020.
  13. The only way Mike Tomlin is being removed as the head coach of the steelers is in retirement.
  14. My personal feelings on Haskins are skeptical going forward, but the hot takes to me seem motivated by... external factors. We simply haven't seen enough of the dude to even compare him to Rosen yet.
  15. Winston isn't a good QB, however the QBs available that can be relied upon to run a Bruce Arians scheme... they generally don't grow on trees. Bruce Arians loves his deep 30+ yard routes. There's a reason everyone says that Bruce Arians hates the Tight End position. Jameis isn't a good QB, but he's got the arm strength/arm talent to play that kind of offense, and he isn't the kind of guy to just add a bunch of easy checkdowns for a veteran QB. If you're playing for Bruce, you're going to sling the rock about 45 times a game, every game. There's always the possibility that the Bucs do move on from Winston, but if they do that, it's because the Bucs are going to trade up to get the QB of their choosing in the draft - there isn't a FA QB available that's really equipped to run a Bruce Arians offense.
  16. My favorite Central division stat is how the Bucs have won the NFC Central more recently than the Lions have.
  17. Sark ran the Kyle Shanahan playbook, but nowhere near as well as Kyle did. I think Sark's success mostly comes from staying within the Kyle Shanahan system, not his own playcalling/play design. I feel that he was pretty weak at playcalling and didn't really "get" what Kyle's offense was about. His constant misuse of Taylor Gabriel in 2017 was a big factor in my analysis. His two years were still very productive (I think that 2017 Falcons offense was much better than people give it credit for), but there was a lot frustrating about the offense, even in 2018. In 2018 the offense was cooking with some gasoline when Calvin Ridley was a huge focal point of our gameplanning. Ridley all but disappeared in some games and the offensive gameplanning seemed to stagnate as a result. It led a lot of us to thinking that Sark had essentially hit his peak and he could do no better, and if the Falcons wanted to win a championship, a top 10 offense just wasn't good enough. With how bad the Falcons defense usually is, we would need an elite offense to mask our deficiencies on defense, and Sark just wasn't the man to command an elite offense. Our thinking was along the lines of "Well as long as Quinn is here, our defense is always going to suck, so we need a top 5 offense or we can't compete". Dirk on the other hand, I think is a replacement level playcaller. I harp on his refusal to scheme players open, but that's also true of a lot of mediocre offensive coordinators in the NFL. Dirk fits that mold of he only looks good when he has elite talent at every level going off. I have enormous issues with the scheme that Koetter likes to run when combined in tandem with the kinds of players the Falcons have on offense - it's a complete mismatch. The Falcons are built for outside-zone running and heavy playaction to complement that - and that's exactly the kind of offense that Dirk Koetter doesn't like to play. He wants his power/gap run, air coryell offense but we're not built that way. You see why I hate Koetter so much? For what it's worth, I would gladly take a 3rd year of Sark over Dirk 2.0.
  18. The Falcons really are trying to just run it back. Quinn really does believe that this is some super-talented roster (it's not).
  19. I thought both should have been canned last year and was arguing vehemently for that, but some dudes on here were saying I was crazy and if I was just patient enough, Quinn would show his worth (even though he's had five seasons to do that, but let's not let facts get in the way of narratives). If we're being honest, the Falcons as an organization have given everyone plenty to be negative about. I've been watching this team since 2001 and they usually do dumb, moronic decisions like this. Which is why they don't have a championship. I don't really see or understand how people look at this team and think they're on the upswing. I know you're probably not going to respond to me, but I feel like addressing the 2012 Koetter season anyway - that season was the result of the Falcons having basically way more talent on offense than literally anyone else in the NFL. The offensive line was healthy and effective, Matt was a young QB just hitting his prime, Julio, Roddy, and Tony were a better 3 than most teams had. They were just out-talenting other people, but with mediocre play design. This is why keeping Hooper was critical, because you just can't put out average dudes out there in a Koetter offense and have them be successful in the long-term. What happened to Koetter's offense in 2013 and 2014 when the Falcons were one of the most injured teams in the NFL? It fell apart. It was usually vs. teams that had good pass rushes that play heavy press coverage that the Falcons really struggled against too. That's not by accident, that's a result of Koetter refusing to scheme dudes open - so when guys got injured and the talent level decreased, it predictably made the offense worse. So if you're just expecting a repeat of 2012 next year, I would guarantee actual money that won't happen. Koetter's just not smart enough for it to happen. I'm honestly predicting a regression for the offense now, if that was possible over 2019. I personally think the "2nd year bump in a new OC" thing is kind of a meme (the offense in 2017 wasn't as bad as you think it was, it was actually pretty good they just had horrendous luck).
  20. The thought in the front office was that the Falcons just needed """""continuity"""""" to be successful. I was arguing heavily for his firing but I remember a few dudes telling me that he was a solid coach and deserved to keep his job. We're going 7-9 for the 3rd straight year in a row because that just makes too much sense.
  21. What pass rusher are they going to be able to sign? The Falcons are not in a position of leverage in FA, so what this means is that they'll overpay for a mediocre pass rusher who really wasn't very good and it'll be another bad contract. Great pass rushers are expensive. There aren't any good Tight Ends to acquire in the draft, and now it's a position of need. A "cheaper team vet" won't be as cheap as you expect he will, and will probably still make 7-8 mil a year because the Tight End market is about to explode. You're going to have to pay a fortune to get even bad tight ends not too long from now. 10-12 mil for hooper, or 7-8 for a bad veteran? One sounds like a bargain to me, the other sounds like robbery. Graham has proven nothing so far and to basically trust him to effectively be your #3 WR is extremely moronic, especially with Dirk Koetter running the offense. Dirk's offense is so bland and uncreative that he basically needs elite playmakers just getting open on their own, without scheming them open. Do you really think Graham is the kind of dude to consistently win matchups 1v1? Because that's what we're going to ask of him now - and if he can't do that, then our offense is going to stagnate because Dirk Koetter absolutely refuses to scheme anyone open. The only way Koetter's offense works is if you hand him 11 elite, extremely talented guys to work with. If you remove even just one talented guy from that equation, his offense will stagnate and is going to implode. I was lukewarm on TD (and wanted Quinn fired) before but now I definitely don't want the man in this organization. This move is idiotic and will contribute to both TD and Quinn being fired. I felt like 7-9 was our ceiling this year assuming the Falcons made a lot of good decisions. Now I'm convinced that we're probably headed for a 5-11 season or worse, as well as immediately screwing the pooch on our short-term future.
  22. The Falcons are actually run by a bunch of idiots. Do they really believe Dirk Koetter is competent enough of an OC to run a successful offense if he doesn't have elite talent at every position?
  23. I actually agree with this, despite my team having Julio. And I love Julio, I wouldn't trade him unless the offer was insane. But I think having a deep WR group is more important than having an elite WR. Having a weak #3 is something that can be exploited (double #1, double #2, play press on #3 and hope the pass rush gets home before #3 beats the press, etc.). This is why I value the Aldrick Robinsons, Taylor Gabriels, Marvin Halls of the world a lot, even though they're just #3 and they physically can't play outside they present matchup issues vs. press coverage (if you don't hit on your jam, you've basically given up a 20+ yard completion if the opposing QB has an arm).
  24. In that case, what do you suggest teams that perennially go 7-9 every year do? I know blowing it up isn't likely to bring the change people want, but if you hit 7-9/8-8 for so long, fans get frustrated and resent the folks running the show. "Stop being mediocre" isn't really much of a prescription.
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