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  1. Yikes. Couldn’t be much colder than this. Really need Michel to hit. Conner TD hit. Live bet Stafford U270 passing yards after the 1Q which is looking good.
  2. Tonight’s card: Michel O60.5 Rushing 1.5U Akers U28.5 Rushing Higbee U39.5 Receiving Kyler O41.5 Rushing Ertz O5.5 Receptions 1.5U Conner ATTD Rams Little Win
  3. Another one I’m eyeing…. Sony O60.5 Rushing - He’s hit in every single start besides his last versus the 49ers #1 dvoa run defense. I think people are incorrectly associating that with Cam Akers return. The Rams lead back has easily hit the Over in both games against Arizona this year (89 and 79). Sony is the lead back tonight.
  4. In addition to that, I’m also playing… Conner ATTD +120 - I just love that kinda juice on one of the league leaders in TDs who has scored in both prior matchups. Ertz O5.5 Receptions - Anyone getting double digit targets can have my money for O5.5 Higbee U39.5 Yards - Cardinals are a top 5 defense against TEs with arguably the most athletic group of LBs/Ss in the league. I like to think McVay does the right thing and comes out run heavy against a leaky front 7 to avoid the type of early game back-breaking mistakes Stafford has all too commonly produced. Higbee hit the Under in
  5. Totally agree. I actually got it at 41.5 unfortunately, but still like it. Ramsey back for this game should force Kyler’s hand a bit more as well.
  6. Very nice, I’m actually going to Vegas next weekend for my birthday. I ended up taking 49ers Little Win at +250. Worked marvelously. Eli Mitchell carries was an easy hit too.
  7. Good thing I didn’t play any of these. 4-0 so far 😅
  8. Ya I got really close to pulling the trigger on a few props there before kickoff but ended up avoiding everything including this play.
  9. Any thoughts on Josh Jacobs U16.5 Carries at +100? He's only exceeded that total in 3 games this season, and never in back to back games (he's coming off a 26 carry game). He's also dealing with a rib injury, though I know he's been sporting that for a few weeks. 2 of the 3 games Jacobs has hit the Over, the Raiders have scored 30+ points, and I'm already committed to the Under in this matchup.
  10. My official plays as of right now: Bengals Little Win (+140) 1U Bills Little Win (+150) 1U Similar thoughts on both games here. I don't LOVE either team to cover the spread, but I do really like both games to stay competitive and the home teams to take it against inferior first-time playoff QBs. It's +money if even one of them hits. CIN/LVR U48.5 (+100) 1U - At +money I felt like I had to take it. I expect both teams to come out with a slow-paced, ground attack to avoid back breaking mistakes via their first-time playoff QBs. Both defenses sport a better-than-you-
  11. I’m not betting every spread of course, but if I had to, this is how I’d lean: CIN -6 BUF -4.5 TB -8.5 SF +3 PIT +12.5 ARI +4
  12. Check out a few posts above this one 😉
  13. Couple of Wild Card Round notes: • Over last 4 years, underdogs are 15-3 ATS. • Home favorites of 7 or fewer are 14-28 ATS since 2003. Bengals, Cowboys, Bills, and Rams make up that group this year. • Since 2002, QBs making their first playoff start are 16-33 ATS (does not count QBs making playoff debut vs one another). Qualifying QBs here are: K.Murray, M.Jones, J.Hurts • Over the last 4 years, 3 seeds are 1-7 ATS vs 6 seeds. Cowboys/49ers and Bills/Patriots are those matchups this year. • Since 2003, home favorites facing an interdivision opponent are 3-10 A
  14. I’m personally betting 49ers ML. Better coaching, more playoff experienced QB, better run defense.
  15. @N4L Curious if you share my feelings on Eli Mitchell O19.5 Carries at +100. He's had 20+ carries in each of his last 5 starts, which have included wins, losses, under 40 points, over 55 points, against playoff teams, and non-playoff teams, regardless of how much Deebo runs. My point is, he's a focal point of this offense regardless of script and opponent. With the return of Trent Williams + the Cowboys #1 ranked DVOA pass defense, I'm expecting Shanahan to come out with a conservative run-heavy game plan to avoid costly turnovers against this opportunistic defense. This is curren
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