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Dr A W Niloc

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  1. Best: New England, Chicago, Baltimore (HM: Kansas City) Worst: San Francisco, Rams, Miami (DM: Raiders)
  2. The NFC-West is best: #1 in aggregate performance ratings and yardage, #2 in 2020 Wins and point differentials. However, the metrics point to two other divisions that could contend this year. The AFC-North is a close second in player ratings, was #1 in 2020 Wins, and has a much easier schedule (2nd, compared to second last for the NFC-West) in 2021. The NFC-South is a ways behind but has a soft schedule (3rd), was #1 in points differential, and was second in yardage.
  3. This was a weird draft for the rebuilding Lions. There is no way Penei Sewell should fall into their laps at #7. I was mildly surprised by the Levi Onwuzurike pick at #41--I'd have considered WR Rondale Moore--but they got Alim McNeil at #72, virtually cornering the market on DTs despite the dearth. And, yes, they did need two DTs. Ifeatu Melifonwu was a bonus at #101, as was Amon-Ra St. Brown at #112. I'd have taken LB Jabril Cox instead of Derrick Barnes at #113 but, in the end, this is six potential starters in one draft, even without RB Jermar Jefferson. If we were looking
  4. It may depend on what you mean by "1 QB". An elite one? An average or better one? A top 24 one? Washington (2021 DVOAs: Overall-16th, Offense-32nd, Defense-3rd) had the pieces (PFF aggregate:11th) on offense going into 2020 but they performed dead last as a unit. If given a free rein, an Aaron Rodgers could get them close to glory. Denver (2021 DVOAs: Overall-29th, Offense-30th, Defense-13th) didn't have the components (PFF aggregate:25th) on offense a year ago and haven't had a complete metamorphosis since (though they did well in the off-season). They'd need a one-m
  5. Seattle knows a WR when they see one. They reached whole rounds for D'Wayne Eskbridge, and for good reason. He'll struggle for targets behind Lockett and Metcalf, though.
  6. BayRaider pretty much nailed it. The offense should improve noticeably from 26th (DVOA) but I'm not convinced the defense can stick at 19th. 7 wins seems about right. They're on the right track but their positional schedules are difficult in 2021.
  7. Because bettors like to win.
  8. In the wake of a draft in which teams had to select players who sat out 2020, I have no problem acknowledging the fact that 2020 was a dumpster fire in the basement of an outhouse. That it affected New England far more than any other team is a point of fact. Despite all of this, the team managed to finish 7-9 with a QB who was using a rusty bottlecap as a rotator cuff. Belichick has since made out like a bandit in free agency, drafted the QB with the #1 QBR (and #1 in completion %, deep yards, etc.) from college, and plugged the last hole with the best DT in college. And then there is
  9. The 49ers may be underdogs to Kansas City and on the road to the Rams and Seattle. If the team stays healthy and produces as many upsets as it incurs, that is 14-3.
  10. 35th overall by PFF. 50th by Lindy's. 24th by Athlon.
  11. The closest thing to a blemish on the Jets' perfect draft wasn't taking Alijah Vera Tucker, who is everything you say, but in trading up in order to do so. AVT was ranked 35th and none of the teams drafting 14th to 22nd were slated to take a Guard. Minny and the Raiders were thinking OT, not OG. Bill "I-know-my-customers!" Belichick could barely wipe the coprophagic grin off his face long enough to take the pivot with the highest QBR, completion percentage, and deep yards in college. Arizona, Miami, Indianapolis, Tennessee (who already have two OGs in the top 15), and Washington (two OGs i
  12. This is a team that was #1 in DVOA on defense, #3 overall, the year before COVID-19. Since last year, the roster has improved markedly at QB, TE, LB, and DT. Their O-Line is top notch. Their RBs are rated 2nd and 15th. Their WRs (PFF: 26th, 46th, 53rd) are better than average. The CBs are ranked 5th, 29th, and 61st. The Pats likely won't lead the league in opt-outs this year and should benefit from superior coaching if they are able to practice more often than once every two weeks. This isn't close on paper and, given the team's tendency to overperform, should be even less so o
  13. 1. New England ended free agency with only two holes left, which they addressed with their first two picks. They've gone from a playoff aspirant to a Super Bowl favorite. 2. The Jets gathered up Carl Lewis, Corey Davis, and others in free agency before having an almost perfect draft. They may have fought their way out of the cellar in football's toughest division. 3. Chargers replaced most of their O-Line to great effect. Honorable Mentions: Arizona, NYGs, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Baltimore.
  14. Trask is a distant fifth (including QBR) in this class but may be the perfect backup QB for Tampa Bay. Accuracy (20th in completion rate) is an issue but he is excellent deep (6th in success, 4th in yardage, 9th in Yards per Attempt). He's the slowest (4.98s) runner of the top 11 rookie QBs but is average at evading pressure (16.9%) and unloading time (2.69s). He can do some serious damage behind the Bucs O-Line and with those WRs.
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