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Dr A W Niloc

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  1. Would the Commissioner even allow such an uneven trade?
  2. The Manning Brothers doing commentary would have been a bad idea even before Happy Hour.
  3. I'll preface this by saying that on an average or better roster Deshaun Watson would be #1. I won't include RB Lamar Jackson but if he were to be considered a QB he'd be #5. We assume you mean in situ. That gives us: 1. Josh Allen 2. Patrick Mahomes 3. Dak Prescott 4. Aaron Rodgers 5. Tom Brady 6. Kyler Murray 7. Justin Herbert 8. Matt Stafford 9. Matt Ryan 10. Ryan Tannehill 11. Kirk Cousins 12. Mac Jones (largely because of those around him).
  4. T.B. 16 Balt 15 N.E. 14 Crla 13 S.F. 12 K.C. 11 Rams 10 Atla 9 Minn 8 Denv 7 Wash 6 Buff 5 Seat 4 G.B. 3 Ariz 2 Jkvl 1
  5. There are three teams worth considering for #1 in the AFC (all of which could be favored over the best NFC teams): New England, Buffalo, Kansas City. There are two basic approaches to independent evaluation: how they fared as a team last year or who their players are in 2021. This means: DVOA, including Total, Offense, Defense, and Special Teams ("TODS"), adjusting for who has been added/lost in the offseason; or, the PFF aggregate sum-of-all-parts approach ("Agg"), adjusting for coaching. In the case of N.E.'s TODS you have to go back to 2019 (3-3-14-11), 2018 (7-5-19-16), or
  6. New England by 16 seems right. Miami's run defense isn't terrible but it won't convince the Pats to stop pounding them. When he does pass Mac Jones will do well against those safeties. Miami's O-Line, coupled with their RBs, won't be able to exploit the closest thing to a weakness the Patriots have.
  7. Favorite Team: Boston Bruins Week 1 pick: Tampa Bay Bucs I have read all of the rules and agree to them.
  8. As you suggest, the eight veterans who opted out--3 more than any other team--turned out to be only one aspect of the Patriot plight. The biggest may have been the discovery that having the best coach in the NFL doesn't help as much when you're only able to practice once every two weeks. This is before we get to the other schedule and organizational hassles. Assuming a normal year we should expect a return to normal results (~12 wins) before factoring in the jump in talent and ridiculously easy positional schedules (1-15-2-1 for QB-RB-WR-TE).
  9. Buffalo is a very good team. However, the Bills have the advantage over the 2021 New England Patriots (not to be confused with the COVID-19 snakebitten 2020 Pats) only at QB and WRs. The Patriots are better and deeper in the running game, at Tight End, defense, special teams (#1), and, especially, O-Line. Even if one thinks this doesn't give Belichick's Boys the advantage, a cursory glance at the positional schedules should tell us who is winning the AFC-East. Then there is the not-so-small matter of Kansas City...
  10. Give the 7.5 points. Dallas replaced a few pieces on defense but, for the most part, little has changed on either team (other than the fact that Dak is back) so it seems fair to use 2020 points scored and allowed as a simple metric. That being the case, Tampa is 14.1 points ahead even before we add the usual 3 points for being the home team. That makes this the biggest blowout of the first weekend. Is Dak's return worth seven or ten points against a top 8 defense? Later in the year and against lesser opponents, maybe. Weekend #1 in Tampa Bay? Not so much.
  11. Then you should have no trouble identifying which of these you'd rather have (stats courtesy of PFF): I do agree it isn't close.
  12. N.E. 16 Buff 15 N.O. 13 S.F. 13 Seat 12 G.B. 12 Pitt 12 T.B. 11 K.C. 11 Rams 11 Balt 11 Ariz 11 LACh 11 Miam 10 Indi 10 Wash 10 Tenn 10 Denv 9 Clev 9 Crla 8 Minn 7 Atla 6 Chic 5 Cinc 5 Dall 4 Phil 4 Jkvl 4 NYGs 3 Rdrs 3 Jets 3 Hous 2 Detr 1 AFCE: N.E. Buff Miam Jets AFCS: Indi Tenn Jkvl Hous AFCW: K.C. LACh Denv Rdrs AFCN: Pitt Balt Clev Cinc NFCE: Wash Dall Phil NYGs NFCS: N.O. T.B. Crla Atla NFCW: S.F. Seat Rams Ariz NFCN: G.B. Minn Chic Detr Neither Houston nor Detroit
  13. PFF loves Baker Mayfield (8th) but no other metric (e.g. DVOA:16th, QBR:16th, FPPG:27th, ADoT-Cmp%:22nd) has him in the top 15. This is on a team with above average WRs and blocking, facing the NFL's toughest QB and WR schedules in 2021 (12th and 9th easiest respectively in 2020).
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