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Dr A W Niloc

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3 Prospect
  1. How does Brady's Buccaneers do this season?

    A lot will depend on the draft, where the Bucs seem well placed. Assuming the mocks are right, T.B. might be able to snag an OL and a premium RB. If so, Tampa Bay wins 13 games and has an excellent shot at the Super Bowl. Even if they can't get some vestige of a ground game going they should win 9-10 and contend for a wild card. Their strength of schedule helps: Tom Brady will face the league's weakest opponents in 2020 while his WRs encounter the NFL's third softest backfields. Expect monstrous passing numbers this year.
  2. Eagles sign CB Nickell Robey-Coleman

    This is excellent news for Eagles fans. PFF rates Nickell Robey-Coleman 16th among CBs. Their next best CB is recently acquired 82nd rated Darius Slay, who is coming off a poor year in Detroit. If 29 year old Slay can make a comeback this position becomes one of relative strength overnight.
  3. You’re Cincy: What would it take from Miami?

    I would jump at a 5th and 18th for #1 overall, which is why I doubt Miami would make such an offer. I realize it sounds like heresy but I'm not convinced there is a franchise QB in the 2020 draft. Assuming we agree that Joe and Tua are the two favorites, we're talking about a weakish arm, which translates to "interception machine" at the NFL level, and someone who can't stay healthy behind better O-Lines than he'll see in Cinci or Miami. In trading down, Cinci's best case scenario would be to get Tua at 5th and hope against hope to keep him upright and intact. Worst case? Take 6' 6", 236 pound Justin Herbert at #5, as Lance Zierlein's 2.0 draft indicates. Either way, the Bengals might score a great OT at #18, whom they'll need going forward. Somewhere in between is the option of addressing other areas of crying need in this draft, getting a bridge QB for now, and waiting for 2021 to get a true franchise QB.
  4. Who is the better QB: Drew Brees or Jared Goff

    And who is the better poet? Dr. Seuss or William Shakespeare?
  5. Quarterbacks

    Good question! Goff was about 8th last year and the four ADP services I use have him going 9th to 12th. His blocking and schedule haven't dropped significantly and his targets remain in place, more or less. I think the drift downward is due to two reasons: the running game, behind the league's best body movers and with a much juicier schedule for RBs, becomes more attractive; and, the defense is very good and getting better. Not much reason to pass, even less to risk life and limb running.
  6. Quarterbacks

    IMHO, these four QB1s offer the best value relative to their Average Draft Positions, based on significantly easier schedules (all have 8 or more games against below average adversaries) and approximately equal (i.e. Cam Newton & Matt Ryan) or better blocking going into 2019: Ben Roethlisberger (taken 13th among QBs, 127th overall) lost a couple of targets, Antonio Brown and Jesse James, and has been a bit of a homer but he throws the most. In standard scoring leagues he'd be underdrafted even if he were the 6th QB to go. Cam Newton (taken 9th @ pick 112) has the easiest positional opponents, including 5 of the 8 worst defenses and *6 (asterisk means the number includes Week 17) more below average ones. He still runs well, if he's healthy. Matt Ryan (7th @76) has a couple of rookie linemen to worry about but he faces softer front sevens and handing off won't be as attractive an option. Having the league's second least efficient defense can provide an incentive to score. Similarly, Baker Mayfield (6th @91) should crack the top 10 in scoring because of better pass protection, poorer run blocking, and the incriminating photos he took of the schedule makers. WR Odell Beckham Jr. won't hurt the cause. There's a QB2 and a QB3 to consider (don't laugh!): Jacoby Brissett doesn't have reliable ADPs yet and his numbers from 2017 are eyesores. Nevertheless, he inherits an enviable situation from Andrew Luck: 10th in protect, 6th softest defenders, solid receiving corps on the team that threw second most (after Pittsburgh). Like Mayfield, he will face 6 bottom 8ers and 2 more below average defenses. For a fill-in, don't forget Lamar Jackson (29th @222). Lousy numbers overall, yes, but solid running numbers and 4 opportunities against 4th quartile defenders, *4 more against others from the lower half.
  7. Sadly, no. They do these things well before the preseason. FWIW, I looked at the offensive pass efficiency numbers for 2017, with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. He would have to play every bit as badly as he did then, with no improvement by anyone else, for the Colts to be edged out by Tennessee (93-90) this year. Given the Indi blocking and targeting seen in 2018 and expected in 2019, that seems improbable (especially if we factor in the chance of the Titans underperforming as well). Parenthetically, despite Luck's departure, the Colts, Seahawks and Ravens will be surprisingly good sources for bargain-hunting Fantasy owners.
  8. I just used the run and pass efficiencies, defense and offense, from Football Outsiders plus the aggregate PFF ratings of the starters. Indianapolis was 9th, Tennessee 15th, with Jacksonville and Houston 17th and 18th, respectively. It's crude and undervalues the skill positions but might work well where coaching won't decide matters.
  9. Going strictly by efficiencies and aggregate talent, Indi wins the division (11-5?), Tennessee second (9-7?), Jacksonville and Houston tied for 3rd-4th (7-9?). Tennessee tends to disappoint, though. With no Hall of Fame coaches in the AFC South I'll stick with the numbers.
  10. Packers first-round rookie Rashan Gary carted off vs. Raiders

    Both, actually. He was carted off the field, returned, and walked off under his own power at half time. I was seated by the exit to the locker room and, FWIW, didn't see him in the second half.
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