Denver is going to have a lot of cap casualties after the year if they want to sign Cousins, I'm not sure that roster will be as attractive once that happens. Not to mention you would be signing up to play against Carr and Mahomes the next decade.
Jacksonville is the sexy option but I don't think they shell out $28M for a QB to hand the ball off. They are a team that would be perfect for Eli Manning to go to with his 2 year $33M deal. Lets them resign their key defenders and they can draft a cheap QB to groom either this year or next year.
Kansas City just traded up for Mahomes and they will have no cap space, I'd say there is less than a 0% chance he goes there.
Arizona has a nice roster but will need to make some big cuts to fit Cousins under their cap. Does Cousins want to play in a division with the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers with Jimmy G?
NYG are interesting, if they get a top 2 pick then no chance they look at Cousins. If they get the third pick then maybe they consider it but then they will likely need to trade OBJ or let him walk. I don't see how they could pay Cousins, JPP, Vernon, Jenkins, and OBJ. This would also put him back in the division with Wentz and Dak who both seem to have teams poised to contend the next 3-5 years.
IMO it comes down to the Bill or the Jets. Both have similar talent pools, but the Jets can offer him far more money. This isn't taking into account the $6M he'd likely make from endorsements coming to NY. The Jets have also tried to trade for Cousins in the past, with Mac and Bowles potentially on the hot seat and the Jets starving for a franchise QB is seems like a match made in heaven. Jets could pay Cousins $40M in year 1 and $35M year 2 and still have $54M in cap space. They won't have to sign anyone to big money until 2020 when Leonard Williams, Robby Anderson, and Jordan Jenkins contracts expire.
If you franchise Cousins I think there is a strong possibility he opts to play for the $34M tag and then test FA next season. I don't see any team that would give up 2 firsts if they could just wait it out nor do I see Cousins wanting his next team to give up those valuable assets. He plays the most protected position in the NFL so I don't see why his contract next offseason could be any worse than what he'd get this offseason. Why not take $34M guaranteed that is going to be half the money he'd get guaranteed in a new contract this year anyway. He'd have to sustain a massive injury to not be offered at least $30M in guarantees on whatever contract he'd sign in 2019.
Maybe you convince him to look for a trade, I don't think it will be anywhere near a 1st round pick though. It just makes too much sense for Kirk to not look for a trade and collect his $34M, I don't think the Redskins will be willing to do that.