I share your frustration with Payton, and he did an awful lot wrong yesterday. I really questioned the idea of spending draft picks on a head coach at the time and sadly it doesn’t look like my initial gut instinct will be proved incorrect on this one.
However, the one thing you don’t mention is IMO his most egregious mistake of the lot yesterday.
Wil Lutz kicks a field goal with 1:54 left to make it a one possession game. At that point we only have one timeout left and we don’t even have the two-minute warning to stop the clock. We can only stop the clock once.
At this point there are three possible scenarios:
A) Kick the ball deep and you must force a quick 3 and out. Since you have one timeout, Pittsburgh can run the clock down twice between plays so you’d get the ball back with 20-30 seconds left. First down ends the game.
B) Kick an onside kick and fail. You’re giving the Steelers the ball around midfield. Again, you’ll get the ball back with 20-30 seconds left if you force a 3 and out (unless they nail a very long field goal). If they get a first down they can take a knee.
C) Go for an onside kick and succeed. At that point you have just under 2 minutes and 1 timeout to try and get to the end zone.
I have no idea what Sean Payton was even thinking by not going for the onside kick. Your chance of winning the game is probably like 2% if you kick it deep, 1% with a failed onside kick, but it would jump all the way up to like 25%-30% if you make the onside kick. At that point not trying an onside kick is an absolutely horrible decision by a very experienced coach.