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TwoForTheMoney

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  1. Yanno the bus driver was always smaller than The Bus.
  2. The RB position needs totally revamped like the TE position. Ideally, I'd like Jaylen Samuels moved to fullback to open up a RB spot on the roster. We do not have the right medley of backs. In his exit interview, put on ten pounds of rock or else start thinking about a different career choice. He has outstanding hands, but just some 80 speed. You're gonna get jacked and learn how to block and you're gonna be my fullback. Keep in mind - this is where people had him at the draft. You get out in space more quickly on blocks, you are a threat out of the backfield (Juszcyk), and also present h-back solutions. A creative OC would have a field day with this guy. Benny Snell is too slow. But he has great vision. If he can lose weight, just like Bell, who had the same scouting report. "Quicksand. Must get faster. Or fatter." Conner is a good 143 carry, 700+ yards option. I consider him my #2. That means #1 is open. To even Conner. My top guys for our backfield. DeeJay Dallas remind me of Zeke. AJ Dillon reminds me of Bettis. I wish I could get both. RB - Dillon, Conner, Dallas 3RB - Dallas FB - Samuels WB/Slot - Bell And I'd move Snell for Bell.
  3. Ironically enough, OJ Howard reminds me of Ladarius Green. They're both better athletes than football players. Not too mention vertical threats downfield that rank top 10 in yards per catch.
  4. Now, if you watched that drive to tie it up at ten. They averaged ten a rush and the 2-3 throws were very simple. Guaranteed separation. One read throws. One came off an RPO. And the Jusczyk one for the TD was a very good play that made him wide open. The 49ers picked 2nd bc of Nick Mullen and a litany of injuries. They finished 2nd in the league bc of the addition of Nick Bosa and the solidfying of that defense. The continued dominance of George Kittle after the catch, the return to health of the offensive line, and the breakout of Mostert. Jimmy G did not lead them to this. In Jim McMahon/Neil O'Donnell/Trent Dilfer fashion, he just happen to go along for the ride. The difference is he gets paid like a "franchise QB" so he must live up to that standard. And, just like a 1st rd pick, when he does not, he is labeled a bust.
  5. Jimmy G has happy feet. Ever since the knee injury he does this fairy turn instead of hanging in the pocket. That's how he threw 5 INTs in a row in a 49ers practice. Guess Jimmy INT didn't particularly care for that rehab. His refusal to hang in there causes him to throw off his back foot, turning away exposing his ribs, and results in not enough velocity on throws and INTs. His INT in the Super Bowl was a version of this. Decision-making and anticipation is the key to this game and he falls short.
  6. If you saw this game tonight, you saw Pat Mahomes was never comfortable in the pocket. He was a shell of his normal self. He played just good enough to win. And he had to scrap his way to make it happen. 49ers should've went QB spy with the four man rush when Mahomes kept extending drives with his legs. That's what buried them. Bc they were inert. The normal offense felt stuck in the mud. They just couldn't get it going. And it's because of pressure. Not sacks. Pressure. Pressure keeps a man up at night. Because they're still there. They're always there. You could see how frustrated he was. And it showed. 2 tuddies. 2 picks. Not exactly efficient. Not a ton of yards. I believe the word is called pressure. And it's gotta be just four. Otherwise, they dump it in the direction of the blitz. The pressure was relentless. In your face. The whole game. The 49ers defense played good enough to win and only lost bc of their $30m crutch at QB. I don't know how you lose when you're gaining ten yards a carry with that defense. If he was anything, you can run playaction and Kittles and bits. It's unstoppable. They're essentially running the offense we should be running. The 49ers defense rushed four the whole game and when Mahomes' back foot hit in his drop, he was agitated, bc he had to flee the pocket. What you essentially have is a different QB altogether. I wanna see Goff on the back of that jersey every game. Whether he's playing or not. Then one play changed it. Mahomes literally dropped back 15 yards and threw up a prayer and hit Tyreek Hill for 44 yards on 3rd & 15 down ten with 7 minutes left. The defense never broke down. They had done their job. They were one play away from winning the Super Bowl. He just dropped back far enough where he bought himself time. It was 3rd & 15 and prayer time. If they don't hit it, the story is how the 49ers defense frustrated Mahomes and never let him get in a rhythm. But that wasn't the case. They still had a chance for it, because they were winning, but then every time after that when it was time for Jimmy INT to make a play. Can he make a play? And he can't make a play. Bc he's trash. The 49ers lost bc they pay $30m a year for trash.
  7. The top 5 TE's earn upwards of $8.5m per year AAV. That number kind of levels out to over $7.5m for top 10 TEs at the position. Henry is a free agent, which means he'll be in the top 5 TEs in terms of AAV. What you have to do is evaluate the production you get for your $10m per season. He's gonna break the bank. Compared to what you would get at someone that plays for $580,000 cap hit. And determine am i getting my money's worth. Kinda like in baseball. You're looking at about $200,000 a grab (50 rec's on $10m) on Hunter Henry. So, I'm gonna pass.
  8. If you put Terrell Edmunds at Lenoir Rhyne you'd see the same thing as Dugger. 6' 217 4.47. With Fitzpatrick playing centerfield in a cover 1/3 type look for most of the game. An impact safety would have the biggest impact of any position on the defense. Have him do somin instead of nothing Baby Face Nelson from SMU might be more in line of what you're looking for. Edit: Kyle Dugger is a red flag for me, because of the age. He turns 24 years old next month. This allowed him more time to develop his body against men who were still teenagers. At the DII level, this disparity is greater. This allowed him to be the "bully" on the field. He won't be playing like that at the next level. I liken that to a HS Senior playing against the 8th grade. Well, of course he's gonna run through them like they're not even there. If, at the senior bowl, he shows he can "hang". Show out. Then he will be "OK" at the next level. He's still gotta jump another level. He's making the jump from A ball to the pros. I ain't buying your brand La-Loosh. I like him as an off-ball LB if he gains ten pounds. Then he can do a job and that gives him value.
  9. 2nd - Jaylen Twyman DT PITT/Alex Highsmith OLB Charlotte 3rd - Quez Watkins WR Southern Miss 4th - Albert O TE Mizzou 4th - Jordyn Brooks LB Texas Tech 6th - AJ Dillon RB Boston College (pipedream)/DeeJay Dallas RB The U 7th - Devin Asiasi TE UCLA
  10. I will be representing the opposing side. And you will need to make an argument as to why you'd sign Jason Worilds 2.0 to a big money deal. You can make the argument to RESIGN or TAG. My argument is to let him walk entirely. Normally, these are difficult. On the fence. Has he made enough incremental improvement in his four short seasons to validate such a figure. Remember when the Steelers gambled on Antonio Brown and gave him his 5 years, $42.5m deal, despite having some 100+ catches combined in his first three seasons. That was a gamble. But you could see it. The trajectory was on the right path. Dupree's situation is much akin to that of Jason Worilds. Pedestrian. Middling. Lowly sack figures in the 5-6 sacks avg per season. Worilds slowly developed into a notch above a Carlos Emmons in the hierarchy of where a Steelers OLB needs to be. Emmons is your 3 sacks per season guy. You send these guys to the Eagles and the like. Argument #1 - NOT ENOUGH PRESSURE Not too long ago I saw an article from Still Curtain commenting on Bud Dupree's lack of pressure compared to the league. Here are a few tidbits I plucked from the article: 1) He made more impactful plays but generated pressure on a per play basis that failed to crack the 50th percentile. He was average winning rep-to-rep with a win pct of 13.1%, which ranked 50th in the league. 2) Dupree had a poor pressure rate and was still average. According to PFF, Dupree has ranked 83rd, 44th, 51st, and 63rd in pressure rates over his first 4 seasons. 3) Dupree played in 980 snaps this season, which was more than TJ Watt. Robert Quinn had 11.5 sacks, just like Dupree, but did so in 647 defensive snaps. Analysis: Pressure rates have remained stagnant over the four year period, which means he is the same exact player that you had doubts about before the season. Really the art of discerning quality pass rushers is qualitative. You just know it. You see it. He gets there. I'm not a sack guy by any means. That's a team stat. Because the team covered everyone in the same 2.50-3.00 seconds that were required to beat your man. We were all on the same page. This cumulative effort led to a splash play for the defense. An individual stat is pressures. As you saw, Bud Dupree ranks in the 50th percentile in creating pressures. I believe in pressures and knockdowns and being a nuisance. Live in his head when you're not even there. Just a pure pest. That is out to destroy this game. It is far more beneficial to create pressure, because it's better to have the QB make mistakes, because that's what wins the game. Sacks just make it harder for him to win. Dupree is only getting there basically at the same rate as an average NFL pass rusher. He was in the 50th percentile, which means he is actually below average. That backs up what I see qualitatively. When I watch Dupree, I just see someone with no plan of a pass rush being completely neutralized roughly the entire game. He jumps off the ball and hits a brick wall. This is backed up by the he beats his man stat roughly 1/7 times, which ranks 50th in the league. Quite frankly, pass rush is an art form and Dupree's gameplan is to outbrute a bigger brute. That's a problem. His pressures are too few and far between. Looking at Robert Quinn. And touching on the opportunities stat. Dupree played in roughly 50% more snaps than Robert Quinn. Therefore, if Bud Dupree is in the 50th percentile in pressures, Robert Quinn is in the 75th percentile on a per play basis. And Quinn is 50% more productive on a per play basis than Dupree. If Bud Dupree is in line with $16m per year, than Robert Quinn is in line with some $20m ($24m) per season. Do you see how Bud Dupree is overpriced??? Argument #2 - OUTLIER SACK TOTALS Pressure rates remained stagnant over a four year period. What is the reason for the spike in sack total? 1) Steven Nelson has been a Steelers CB since day one. And this signing has resulted in no more picking on Willie Gay (or insert boundary corner here). Off coverage. Pitch and catch. Occasionally, Willie'd rack one. More often that not, it was a slow death. No more Artie Burns torchings from an inability to recognize the concepts of a zone defense. The signing of Steven Nelson has resulted in the team being more capable back to front. This has resulted in guys being covered longer, and the guys up front have more time to get there. Watt also had a career year. But I attribute that to TJ Watt has gotten more swole and is consistently beating his man more on a per play basis. No stat to confirm. Except for the proof in the pudding. 2) The Minkah Fitzpatrick trade changed the scheme of the defense. He plays in the middle. His ability allowed this change. No more wasting Terrell Edmunds covering the outside hash. He did an outstanding job. The hash didn't catch a pass all game. No longer are the days of sitting back with two deep. Praise God. With the team speed on defense, now putting Edmunds more so in the box (deeper lying dime LB) and with his 4.47 speed, space has been eliminated. Or at least truncated. This changes everything. The windows are tighter. Minkah INT vs 49ers. Tighter windows. Pressure. Turnover. That's the game. Make them make mistakes. Now we're forcing pressure from the back-end. From an increase in talent, speed, and scheme. This pressure from the secondary would not be realized if you didn't have a pass rush up front. PLEASE NOTE: Javon Hargrave. Bud Dupree had 3 sacks in 6 games with Tuitt, who was a monster. Of which, Minkah played in four games. Resulting in the same 0.5 sacks per game. When Javon Hargrave played in the final 10 games, Dupree recorded 8.5 sacks. One can conclude with someone as average a pass rusher as Dupree, as previously proven with his 50th percentile pressure rate, that Javon Hargrave is a better interior pass rusher for the Steelers than Stephon Tuitt. 3) Devin Bush. The addition of Devin Bush also changed the defense by giving us a defensive playmaker at the second level. His playmaking skills are that on par with Troy and Shazier. He truncates the field with his speed and has reduced the ability of teams to capitalize on their gimmicky nature that has plagued us over the past few years. He can run sideline to sideline so that little swing pass is eaten up quickly. He provides help in man (DB speed in a LB) and graded at some 90 in PFF in man but only 50 in zone concepts. This helps on backs out of the backfield. TEs. WRs. And the like. Argument #3 - YOU CAN'T PAY EVERYONE So, when it comes a point in time to determine if someone is worth what they make (CORS) he's not worth the $16m with a tag or an extension. You can't afford the luxury of tagging him for one more year. You know what he is. He is the same player as he entered the league. He gets there the same as he did his rookie season. Only once did we get two new starters in the secondary did he finally crack ten sacks in a season. And you can't jeopardize the future of the nucleus of this young defense. The nucleus of this defense is TJ Watt, Devin Bush, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. And you must add to it. Defense travels in January. These guys will all be paid top 5 at their respective positions. You can't make a bad deal here, and then it costs you someone down the road. TJ Watt is a $100m player. How many years you get for that $100m will depend on how soon you pay him. You can sign players after their 3rd year. We really hold all the leverage here on Watt. 4th year with a weak 5th year option. I'd do right by him. And pay him sooner rather than later. Argument #4 - AVAILABILITY OF SUBSTITUTES Yannick Ngakeoue Dante Fowler Robert Quinn Vic Beasley Yetur Gross-Matos (HOF) Alex Highsmith The point here is Bud Dupree is not the fuel that makes that engine run on defense. It's pretty much a collective effort of quality players across the board. You can't throw a Nick Vannett pulse out there bc then they'll account for Watt. You need to take this position seriously, because it's the most important position to this team. They must get pressure from both OLBs. And Dupree doesn't get enough pressure. Let alone enough pressure at that enormous cap figure. His stats rose when the talent on the back-end improved. He's a fancy, shiny, engine with not too much horsepower.
  11. This problem can be solved through a variety of ways. One of the ways is the 6 OL tactic. The idea of 3 WRs, 1RB, 6 OL excites me. You will literally bulldoze undersized players in the run game. And if you get dynamic KC Chiefs type WRs that put pressure on DBs quickly, the pass game will thrive as well. I understand the talent is weak but to truly capitalize on a tight end in the modern game you need a creative playcaller. We don't have a creative playcaller. We have someone who cedes power to Ben so Ben is happy. When you have injuries. Then you're in trouble. Considering, Roethlisberger hasn't won in ten years. Or really within grasp. This is not a prudent strategy. I saw this graphic the other day and it was 3 in 6 years (Super Bowls) for Ben in the Brady/Manning era. That was ten years ago. What makes you remotely think that he's now suddenly gonna throw his name in the LaMar/Mahomes hat and lead this team back to a Super Bowl coming off an elbow injury. In the history of the Steelers, it's like divine. Praise God. Bradshaw - elbow. Pass it on. Maddox - elbow. Pass it on. Ben - elbow. Pass it on. When I saw that graphic, I could only think of one thing. Your time is up. A better strategy considering where we are today is to be the most physical team in the NFL. They are Steelers after all. A tough, nasty, mean defense devoid of Bud Dupree. Complemented by an offense that goes ground and pound. And around. Speed. Trick plays. Creativity. This accomplishes a few things. The formula leads to momentum. And it destroys the will of the opponent, as they see you dominating them every play as they slowly lose their will and slowly give up one by one. It has a profound effect. Because they see it every play. I could do better there, but I'm moving on. As the landscape changes in the NFL, this is considered innovation. Because everyone just went small and fast. So, your competitive advantage is big and tough. You overpower the JV. Because you are bigger and stronger than them. You are just throwing around more weight. The best part is this is your team identity. AJ Dillon. AJ Dillon. AJ Dillon. So, you just have to go back to playing the way you have since 1933. My grandma was born in '33. Believe it was 9/3/33. So, you know she was a complete player. This strategy just works well together. I'm having a hard conceptualizing it. But it's just a force. It's momentum. And it can't be stopped. Not too mention a few other benefits. You can pay the QB less and have a better overall team. You can have Charlie Batch win in a pinch because the offense doesn't evolve around one. It evolves around all eleven. All of this is ironic because we have a solid nucleus on defense that should not be jeopardized, for quite frankly, anyone on offense. I'm rambling, so I'll just sort of summarize. You don't have a creative OC and you have never thrown to the tight end in the entire history of the franchise. The only time you did was bc you rightfully selected Heath Miller in the first round and needed to make him part of the offense, because you took him in the first. It helped that he wasn't Mark Bruener. So he could actually be used. These are reasons to downgrade the importance as you rank your needs in a hierarchy. That doesn't mean you don't address tight end. It means you don't use one on day one or two. McDonald is a cap casualty for me. I'm gonna let Vannett walk, because he's not worth whatever his figure is. He's a pulse. I ain't paying no $6m a year for a pulse. Let Jesse James part II go for money. Laugh. And then sign another Steven Nelson type guy and wash 'em. The transaction dollar amounts. I'd like to start earning compensation picks like the Baltimore Ravens who have it down to a science. Because those 4th rd picks are an unbelievable spot to start plucking tight ends.
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