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goldfishwars

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goldfishwars last won the day on May 7

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  1. Teams that are overhyped/underhyped

    Overhyped - 49ers, Bears - too much expected too soon with those teams Underhyped - Falcons, Redskins, Chiefs
  2. 2018-2019 NFL Season Predictions (Awards)

    I just did the simulator and posted the results. I guess subconsciously, without giving it too much thought, I liked Chiefs in their games more than I like the Raiders in theirs. Oakland feels like a much more unstable situation than KC, even with the QB change. It's not that I'm down on their chances, I just literally haven't got a clue what to expect from them this year with all the change and I guess that played into my game by game prediction.
  3. 2018-2019 NFL Season Predictions (Awards)

    AFC East: 1. New England (12-4) 2. Miami (6-10) 3. Buffalo (5-11) 4. NYJ (3-13) AFC North: 1. Pittsburgh (13-3) 2. Baltimore (8-8) 3. Cincinnati (6-10) 4. Cleveland (3-13) AFC South: 1. Jacksonville (13-3) 2. Houston (10-6)* 3. Tennessee (9-7) 4. Indianapolis (4-12) AFC West: 1. Kansas City (12-4) 2. LAC (10-6)* 3. Denver (8-8) 4. Oakland (4-12) NFC East: 1. Philadelphia (13-3) 2. Dallas (10-6) 3. Washington (7-9) 4. NYG (4-12) NFC North: 1. Minnesota (12-4) 2. Green Bay (11-5)* 3. Chicago (5-11) 4. Detroit (4-12) NFC South: 1. New Orleans (11-5) 2. Atlanta (10-6) 3. Carolina (7-9) 4. Tampa Bay (4-12) NFC West: 1. LAR (13-3) 2. Seattle (10-6)* 3. San Francisco (6-10) 4. Arizona (3-13) Most Valuable Player: Carson Wentz Offensive Player of the Year: Antonio Brown Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Donald Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley Defensive Rookie of the Year: Roquan Smith Comeback Player of the Year: JJ Watt Coach of the Year: Doug Pederson AFC Championship Game: Steelers - Jaguars Super Bowl Champs: Jaguars - Eagles Super Bowl MVP: Carson Wentz
  4. Nick Bosa vs Ed Oliver

    I just watched Ed Oliver, holy hell. I thought you guys must have been overselling it, but my God. He is so good, so good.
  5. 2019 NFL Draft Early top 250+

    Trace McSorley seems pretty decent, from what I've seen (which isn't a huge sample admittedly). What's the knock? The size?
  6. Top 10 NFL rookies that will exceed expectations?

    Here's 10 guys who can outperform expectations in their rookie seasons based on talent/opportunity: * Nyheim Hines (RB) - Colts (Pick 104) A speedy back, that's a little more than just a space player. With an unproven Marlon Mack ahead of him, there's going to be an opportunity for touches regardless with his ability out of the backfield. * Wyatt Teller (OG) - Bills (Pick 166) The Bills are going to need to run the football well this season and run blocking is something Teller did well at VT. With Vlad Ducasse to beat out, there's an opportunity for him to push for a starting role early * Colby Gossett (OG) - Vikings (Pick 213) The Vikings resisted the opportunity to land an interior blocker early, but managed to pick up Gossett who was a big scorer in PFF grades and performed well at the Senior Bowl. With no obvious starter at the guard spots, there's an opportunity for him to start at some point * Parry Nickerson (CB) - Jets (Pick 179) He was one of my favorite slot corners in the draft, fast and real feisty. He'll have to beat out Buster Skrine for the nickel spot, but he's got a chance to outperform his 6th round selection early on. * Skyler Phillips (OG) - Seahawks (UDFA) I had an early 3rd day grade on Phillips, he's got light feet and surprising power and that should play well on a roster that still doesn't know who its best starting five are going to be. Pete Carroll's ethos is to give everyone an equal chance to compete and that could open the door for Phillips. * Nick Nelson (CB) - Raiders (Pick 110) Nelson had an excellent college career at Hawaii and then Wisconsin, he's not outrageously gifted athletically - but he's smart and savvy. The latter tends to play better in the NFL, at least early on. If he's able to recover from his meniscus tear, he's talented enough to carve a role on a thin DB roster. * DJ Reed (CB) - 49ers (Pick 142) Another slot corner on a team that will be trying to figure out what its best combinations are going to be at the back end. Small, but a consistent danger to take the ball away - he can impress early in the slot. Failing that, he can become the team's punt returner early. * Tregay (LB) Scales - Rams (UDFA) I had an early day three grade on Scales, who was an important leader on his Indiana defense. Perhaps his athletic testing dropped him out of the draft altogether, but the tape is really solid. He's got a good all-round game, can line up at a number of spots and there are opportunities to impress at inside linebacker in LA this year. * Genard Avery (LB/Edge) - Browns (Pick 150) A missile in the run game at Memphis, he's got the ability to change down and become an outside rusher on obvious passing downs too. On a defense where competition for places are very much in play, he's a useful weapon to have around. * Matthew Thomas (LB) - Steelers (UDFA) A superb athlete who led FSU in tackles last season. The Steelers don't have a huge range of athletic skills at inside linebacker, but something Thomas does have is speed and range. That alone could lead him to get on field time if he can impress.
  7. Hate to say it, but this is a troubling pattern of behaviour which is consistent with a serious head injury. I know he has a history of questionable behaviour, but this seems off key even for him. I’m surprised CTE isn’t bought up more when a player goes off the rails like this, especially given how prevalent it has been in the brains of ex players studied so far.
  8. Deepest Team Rankings

    Yeah, you've got it. Best graded categories (8 or above) combining starters and depth: Eagles - QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, Edge, Packers - QB, OL, DL, CB Jaguars - DL, Edge, LB, S Atlanta - RB, WR, Edge, LB, CB Baltimore (mostly through high depth scores) - TE, OL, DL, Edge, CB Cincinnati (mostly through high depth scores) - RB, Edge, CB, S Minnesota (scored lots of 7's) - CB Pittsburgh - QB, WR, DL LA Rams - RB, WR, DL, CB LA Chargers - QB, CB Tampa Bay - WR, DL CB New England - RB, WR Denver - Edge, CB Washington - DL, Edge Tennessee - RB, TE, DL New Orleans - RB, CB Carolina - DL Cleveland - None Miami - S Kansas City - RB NYJ - QB Seattle - LB, S NYG - RB, WR, Indianapolis - QB (assuming Luck back!) Oakland - RB Dallas - OL Chicago - None Detroit - RB Houston - None Buffao - None San Francisco - DL Arizona - None Worst graded categories combine (five or less): Philadelphia - LB Green Bay - LB, Edge Jacksonville - QB Atlanta - None Baltimore - None Cincinnati - None Minnesota - None Pittsburgh - TE, LB LA Rams - OL, LB LA Chargers - RB, OL Tampa Bay - OL, S New England - LB, CB Denver - QB, RB Washington - QB Tennessee - WR, CB New Orleans - TE, LB Carolina - S Cleveland - DL, CB Miami - QB, OL, DL Kansas City - QB, OL, DL, CB NYJ - OL, Edge, LB Seattle - TE, OL, CB NYG - QB, OL, Edge, LB, S Indianapolis - RB, WR, CB, S Oakland - TE, DL, LB Dallas - TE, DL, WR, S Chicago - QB, Edge, LB, S Detroit - QB, TE, DL, Edge, LB Houston - QB, RB, TE, OL, LB Buffalo - QB, WR, OL, LB San Francisco - RB, WR, TE, OL, LB Arizona - WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, CB, S
  9. Deepest Team Rankings

    I did put some loose definitions around the scoring system, it needs development and the criteria can be defined - it's always going to be biased though. I don't know how you would eliminate that, not sure asking fans of teams to rate their own squad is the best approach. Some fans are very pessimistic, others eternally optimistic. in terms of the Redskins, I'll tell you how I view the roster and you can tell me where you would disagree. Whilst you might say there is uncertainty at RB, I see four players who can be significant contributors in Derrius Guice, Rob Kelly, Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine. Guice was thought of highly enough to have been a first round draft pick, Thompson has been an excellent 3rd down back and Kelly and Perine have started in the league even if you think the ceiling is low. That's a good depth situation, better than most teams. At Tight End, Jordan Reed is one of the best when healthy, Vernon Davis is still serviceable and people liked Jeremy Sprinkle coming out last year. That's good depth. At edge, the Redskins go four deep in Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, Pernell McPhee and Ryan Anderson. Most teams aren't that deep there. Inside linebacker, Mason Foster and Zach Brown seem a real solid pairing. Plus you have Zach Vigil and Martell Spaight backing them up who have both played meaningful minutes, alongside new draft pick Shaun Dion Hamilton who a lot of people liked coming out and Josh Harvey Clemons who played in ten games last season. Corner has Orlando Scandrick who has been a starter throughout this career opposite Josh Norman who was a huge investment last year. Fabian Moreau was a high draft pick a lot of people liked coming out last year (there was some 1st round buzz before his pec injury) , Quinton Dunbar has played significant minutes in the NFL and late round pick Greg Stroman who, was a late round pick, but was a real analyst's darling of a slot corner. D-line looks solid, Allen - Payne - Ioannidis/McGee looks a handful on paper. Receiver can go four deep in Doctson, Crowder, Richardson and Quick. It's not got a headline act, but it could be serviceable and there's a nice blend of skills. Starting five on the offensive line looks fine, I know they've had issues with injuries. There's some name recognition with players looking for spots. I don't know, it seems a fairly resilient roster to me. Not a lot of highlights, but not many lowlights either and they have potential to be really dangerous on the defensive front and off the edge.
  10. Deepest Team Rankings

    No, you score each individually – not the drop-off from starter to back-up. The majority of teams would see a significant drop-off in QB play if their starter went down, of course. But it’s easy to argue that the Eagles, as they have proved, could absorb the loss the Carson Wentz pretty well with Nick Foles stepping up so they would score high in starter and back-up. Whereas, let’s say, the Lions would score high for Stafford as their starting QB, but would score pretty low for Jake Rudock who they might feel good about internally (let’s see if he can beat out a Matt Cassel long past his best), but wasn’t a highly thought-of draft prospect and hasn’t played meaningful minutes in the NFL to date.
  11. Deepest Team Rankings

    I’m not trying to judge how good a team is though, I’ve been clear about that. The thread is literally called ‘deepest team rankings’.
  12. Deepest Team Rankings

    Because this is as much about depth, than roster talent - the Packers score high in this because there is good depth at nearly every spot on the roster. That said, there aren't many teams with 11 players who have played in a Pro Bowl and can field a defensive line more talented than Wilkerson - Clark - Daniels next year. There also aren't many teams that can name six cornerbacks who are capable of starting a game (Williams, King, Rollins, Alexander, Jackson, House).
  13. Deepest Team Rankings

    So, the reasons for the high Packers ranking were mostly to do with what they did in the off-season. Jimmy Graham and Muhammad Wilkerson are Pro Bowl additions at their respective positions, Deshone Kizer helps give them better depth at QB back-up than most teams have (Hundley and Kizer have played significant minutes in the league). There was also huge draft capital spent at corner and a number of picks made at receiver. That whole roster goes deep throughout.
  14. Deepest Team Rankings

    So I looked at the projected starters and backups for all 32 teams for a thing and it was really interesting to see which teams came out on top. This isn't a ranking of which teams I think will fare best next season, because it strips out positional value and the impact of coaching and scheme. But it's an attempt to work out which rosters are better equipped at each starting position, plus the value of their back-up (i.e would there be a significant drop-off if the starter was injured?) in order to work-out which teams have the most talent and the most number of spots. I did this by scoring each position (QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, Edge, Off LB, CB, S - rookies were marked conservatively) like this:- Starters: 1 - A low-level starter 2 - A below average starter 3 - An average or ascending NFL player 4 - A potential future Pro Bowl calibre player 5 - A Pro Bowl calibre player Depth: 1 - Fortunes of team would be severely hit if starter was unavailable 2 - A significant drop-off in talent from starter to back-up 3 - Drop-off in talent from starter to back-up could be managed 4 - Slight drop-off, but capable contributor backing up 5 - No noticeable drop-off Obviously, it's not an exact science (and others would score very differently, probably) - but just a bit of fun to get familiar with every team's roster. The Eagles look insanely stacked in their depth and the strength of their current starters, scoring far beyond the next team. A couple of surprises were the Ravens and Bengals, both in the top ten. But when you look at those rosters, they might be lacking in headliners - but man have they done a good job of filling the depth at almost every spot. Both look particularly resilient to injury, the Ravens just need some better luck there. Some creative coaching might be able to realise the talent that is there on those teams, given there are so many maybes. At the bottom of the list, there are some teams who have performed well of late and have some excellent starters in place - but don't look particularly far away from a few struggles if they hit an injury wave. The Cowboys fall into that category, although there are some units on that roster they need to work through. Some other teams I thought were deep, have a few questionable spots on their team when you run down the roster - the Saints would be in that category. Elsewhere, the Buccaneers I would say have done the most to turn around a roster by instilling depth at a number of spots during the the off-season. Overall Scoring: Philadelphia Eagles - 78 Green Bay Packers - 72 Jacksonville Jaguars - 72 Atlanta Falcons - 71 Baltimore Ravens - 70 Cincinnati Bengals - 69 Minnesota Vikings - 68 Pittsburgh Steelers - 67 Los Angeles Rams - 67 Los Angeles Chargers - 66 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 66 New England Patriots - 66 Denver Broncos - 65 Washington Redskins - 64 Tennessee Titans - 64 New Orleans Saints - 63 Carolina Panthers - 62 Cleveland Browns - 61 Miami Dolphins - 60 Kansas City Chiefs - 59 New York Jets - 59 Seattle Seahawks - 58 New York Giants - 58 Indianapolis Colts - 57 Oakland Raiders - 57 Dallas Cowboys - 56 Chicago Bears - 55 Detroit Lions - 55 Houston Texans - 55 Buffalo Bills - 54 San Francisco 49ers - 54 Arizona Cardinals - 49
  15. CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

    I’ve watched a lot of Bentley and Sam since we drafted them. My conclusions are that Bentley is an excellent throwback downhill run defender who is particularly good at taking on blockers. Sam is more well rounded, but generally underwhelming in most aspects. I have higher hopes for the former, but I have my doubts either will improve an already underperforming unit.
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