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goldfishwars

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goldfishwars last won the day on May 7

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  1. Top 10 NFL rookies that will exceed expectations?

    Here's 10 guys who can outperform expectations in their rookie seasons based on talent/opportunity: * Nyheim Hines (RB) - Colts (Pick 104) A speedy back, that's a little more than just a space player. With an unproven Marlon Mack ahead of him, there's going to be an opportunity for touches regardless with his ability out of the backfield. * Wyatt Teller (OG) - Bills (Pick 166) The Bills are going to need to run the football well this season and run blocking is something Teller did well at VT. With Vlad Ducasse to beat out, there's an opportunity for him to push for a starting role early * Colby Gossett (OG) - Vikings (Pick 213) The Vikings resisted the opportunity to land an interior blocker early, but managed to pick up Gossett who was a big scorer in PFF grades and performed well at the Senior Bowl. With no obvious starter at the guard spots, there's an opportunity for him to start at some point * Parry Nickerson (CB) - Jets (Pick 179) He was one of my favorite slot corners in the draft, fast and real feisty. He'll have to beat out Buster Skrine for the nickel spot, but he's got a chance to outperform his 6th round selection early on. * Skyler Phillips (OG) - Seahawks (UDFA) I had an early 3rd day grade on Phillips, he's got light feet and surprising power and that should play well on a roster that still doesn't know who its best starting five are going to be. Pete Carroll's ethos is to give everyone an equal chance to compete and that could open the door for Phillips. * Nick Nelson (CB) - Raiders (Pick 110) Nelson had an excellent college career at Hawaii and then Wisconsin, he's not outrageously gifted athletically - but he's smart and savvy. The latter tends to play better in the NFL, at least early on. If he's able to recover from his meniscus tear, he's talented enough to carve a role on a thin DB roster. * DJ Reed (CB) - 49ers (Pick 142) Another slot corner on a team that will be trying to figure out what its best combinations are going to be at the back end. Small, but a consistent danger to take the ball away - he can impress early in the slot. Failing that, he can become the team's punt returner early. * Tregay (LB) Scales - Rams (UDFA) I had an early day three grade on Scales, who was an important leader on his Indiana defense. Perhaps his athletic testing dropped him out of the draft altogether, but the tape is really solid. He's got a good all-round game, can line up at a number of spots and there are opportunities to impress at inside linebacker in LA this year. * Genard Avery (LB/Edge) - Browns (Pick 150) A missile in the run game at Memphis, he's got the ability to change down and become an outside rusher on obvious passing downs too. On a defense where competition for places are very much in play, he's a useful weapon to have around. * Matthew Thomas (LB) - Steelers (UDFA) A superb athlete who led FSU in tackles last season. The Steelers don't have a huge range of athletic skills at inside linebacker, but something Thomas does have is speed and range. That alone could lead him to get on field time if he can impress.
  2. Hate to say it, but this is a troubling pattern of behaviour which is consistent with a serious head injury. I know he has a history of questionable behaviour, but this seems off key even for him. I’m surprised CTE isn’t bought up more when a player goes off the rails like this, especially given how prevalent it has been in the brains of ex players studied so far.
  3. Deepest Team Rankings

    Yeah, you've got it. Best graded categories (8 or above) combining starters and depth: Eagles - QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, Edge, Packers - QB, OL, DL, CB Jaguars - DL, Edge, LB, S Atlanta - RB, WR, Edge, LB, CB Baltimore (mostly through high depth scores) - TE, OL, DL, Edge, CB Cincinnati (mostly through high depth scores) - RB, Edge, CB, S Minnesota (scored lots of 7's) - CB Pittsburgh - QB, WR, DL LA Rams - RB, WR, DL, CB LA Chargers - QB, CB Tampa Bay - WR, DL CB New England - RB, WR Denver - Edge, CB Washington - DL, Edge Tennessee - RB, TE, DL New Orleans - RB, CB Carolina - DL Cleveland - None Miami - S Kansas City - RB NYJ - QB Seattle - LB, S NYG - RB, WR, Indianapolis - QB (assuming Luck back!) Oakland - RB Dallas - OL Chicago - None Detroit - RB Houston - None Buffao - None San Francisco - DL Arizona - None Worst graded categories combine (five or less): Philadelphia - LB Green Bay - LB, Edge Jacksonville - QB Atlanta - None Baltimore - None Cincinnati - None Minnesota - None Pittsburgh - TE, LB LA Rams - OL, LB LA Chargers - RB, OL Tampa Bay - OL, S New England - LB, CB Denver - QB, RB Washington - QB Tennessee - WR, CB New Orleans - TE, LB Carolina - S Cleveland - DL, CB Miami - QB, OL, DL Kansas City - QB, OL, DL, CB NYJ - OL, Edge, LB Seattle - TE, OL, CB NYG - QB, OL, Edge, LB, S Indianapolis - RB, WR, CB, S Oakland - TE, DL, LB Dallas - TE, DL, WR, S Chicago - QB, Edge, LB, S Detroit - QB, TE, DL, Edge, LB Houston - QB, RB, TE, OL, LB Buffalo - QB, WR, OL, LB San Francisco - RB, WR, TE, OL, LB Arizona - WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, CB, S
  4. Deepest Team Rankings

    I did put some loose definitions around the scoring system, it needs development and the criteria can be defined - it's always going to be biased though. I don't know how you would eliminate that, not sure asking fans of teams to rate their own squad is the best approach. Some fans are very pessimistic, others eternally optimistic. in terms of the Redskins, I'll tell you how I view the roster and you can tell me where you would disagree. Whilst you might say there is uncertainty at RB, I see four players who can be significant contributors in Derrius Guice, Rob Kelly, Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine. Guice was thought of highly enough to have been a first round draft pick, Thompson has been an excellent 3rd down back and Kelly and Perine have started in the league even if you think the ceiling is low. That's a good depth situation, better than most teams. At Tight End, Jordan Reed is one of the best when healthy, Vernon Davis is still serviceable and people liked Jeremy Sprinkle coming out last year. That's good depth. At edge, the Redskins go four deep in Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, Pernell McPhee and Ryan Anderson. Most teams aren't that deep there. Inside linebacker, Mason Foster and Zach Brown seem a real solid pairing. Plus you have Zach Vigil and Martell Spaight backing them up who have both played meaningful minutes, alongside new draft pick Shaun Dion Hamilton who a lot of people liked coming out and Josh Harvey Clemons who played in ten games last season. Corner has Orlando Scandrick who has been a starter throughout this career opposite Josh Norman who was a huge investment last year. Fabian Moreau was a high draft pick a lot of people liked coming out last year (there was some 1st round buzz before his pec injury) , Quinton Dunbar has played significant minutes in the NFL and late round pick Greg Stroman who, was a late round pick, but was a real analyst's darling of a slot corner. D-line looks solid, Allen - Payne - Ioannidis/McGee looks a handful on paper. Receiver can go four deep in Doctson, Crowder, Richardson and Quick. It's not got a headline act, but it could be serviceable and there's a nice blend of skills. Starting five on the offensive line looks fine, I know they've had issues with injuries. There's some name recognition with players looking for spots. I don't know, it seems a fairly resilient roster to me. Not a lot of highlights, but not many lowlights either and they have potential to be really dangerous on the defensive front and off the edge.
  5. Deepest Team Rankings

    No, you score each individually – not the drop-off from starter to back-up. The majority of teams would see a significant drop-off in QB play if their starter went down, of course. But it’s easy to argue that the Eagles, as they have proved, could absorb the loss the Carson Wentz pretty well with Nick Foles stepping up so they would score high in starter and back-up. Whereas, let’s say, the Lions would score high for Stafford as their starting QB, but would score pretty low for Jake Rudock who they might feel good about internally (let’s see if he can beat out a Matt Cassel long past his best), but wasn’t a highly thought-of draft prospect and hasn’t played meaningful minutes in the NFL to date.
  6. Deepest Team Rankings

    I’m not trying to judge how good a team is though, I’ve been clear about that. The thread is literally called ‘deepest team rankings’.
  7. Deepest Team Rankings

    Because this is as much about depth, than roster talent - the Packers score high in this because there is good depth at nearly every spot on the roster. That said, there aren't many teams with 11 players who have played in a Pro Bowl and can field a defensive line more talented than Wilkerson - Clark - Daniels next year. There also aren't many teams that can name six cornerbacks who are capable of starting a game (Williams, King, Rollins, Alexander, Jackson, House).
  8. Deepest Team Rankings

    So, the reasons for the high Packers ranking were mostly to do with what they did in the off-season. Jimmy Graham and Muhammad Wilkerson are Pro Bowl additions at their respective positions, Deshone Kizer helps give them better depth at QB back-up than most teams have (Hundley and Kizer have played significant minutes in the league). There was also huge draft capital spent at corner and a number of picks made at receiver. That whole roster goes deep throughout.
  9. Deepest Team Rankings

    So I looked at the projected starters and backups for all 32 teams for a thing and it was really interesting to see which teams came out on top. This isn't a ranking of which teams I think will fare best next season, because it strips out positional value and the impact of coaching and scheme. But it's an attempt to work out which rosters are better equipped at each starting position, plus the value of their back-up (i.e would there be a significant drop-off if the starter was injured?) in order to work-out which teams have the most talent and the most number of spots. I did this by scoring each position (QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, Edge, Off LB, CB, S - rookies were marked conservatively) like this:- Starters: 1 - A low-level starter 2 - A below average starter 3 - An average or ascending NFL player 4 - A potential future Pro Bowl calibre player 5 - A Pro Bowl calibre player Depth: 1 - Fortunes of team would be severely hit if starter was unavailable 2 - A significant drop-off in talent from starter to back-up 3 - Drop-off in talent from starter to back-up could be managed 4 - Slight drop-off, but capable contributor backing up 5 - No noticeable drop-off Obviously, it's not an exact science (and others would score very differently, probably) - but just a bit of fun to get familiar with every team's roster. The Eagles look insanely stacked in their depth and the strength of their current starters, scoring far beyond the next team. A couple of surprises were the Ravens and Bengals, both in the top ten. But when you look at those rosters, they might be lacking in headliners - but man have they done a good job of filling the depth at almost every spot. Both look particularly resilient to injury, the Ravens just need some better luck there. Some creative coaching might be able to realise the talent that is there on those teams, given there are so many maybes. At the bottom of the list, there are some teams who have performed well of late and have some excellent starters in place - but don't look particularly far away from a few struggles if they hit an injury wave. The Cowboys fall into that category, although there are some units on that roster they need to work through. Some other teams I thought were deep, have a few questionable spots on their team when you run down the roster - the Saints would be in that category. Elsewhere, the Buccaneers I would say have done the most to turn around a roster by instilling depth at a number of spots during the the off-season. Overall Scoring: Philadelphia Eagles - 78 Green Bay Packers - 72 Jacksonville Jaguars - 72 Atlanta Falcons - 71 Baltimore Ravens - 70 Cincinnati Bengals - 69 Minnesota Vikings - 68 Pittsburgh Steelers - 67 Los Angeles Rams - 67 Los Angeles Chargers - 66 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 66 New England Patriots - 66 Denver Broncos - 65 Washington Redskins - 64 Tennessee Titans - 64 New Orleans Saints - 63 Carolina Panthers - 62 Cleveland Browns - 61 Miami Dolphins - 60 Kansas City Chiefs - 59 New York Jets - 59 Seattle Seahawks - 58 New York Giants - 58 Indianapolis Colts - 57 Oakland Raiders - 57 Dallas Cowboys - 56 Chicago Bears - 55 Detroit Lions - 55 Houston Texans - 55 Buffalo Bills - 54 San Francisco 49ers - 54 Arizona Cardinals - 49
  10. CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Eagles Up)

    I’ve watched a lot of Bentley and Sam since we drafted them. My conclusions are that Bentley is an excellent throwback downhill run defender who is particularly good at taking on blockers. Sam is more well rounded, but generally underwhelming in most aspects. I have higher hopes for the former, but I have my doubts either will improve an already underperforming unit.
  11. Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

    That rounds it up guys, appreciate the back and forth and some surprising good words considering this is generally a very sensitive thing to do with so many ways to look at it. The good news is, if your team is ranked low, there's a very, very good chance I'm completely wrong here. Each person who enjoys the draft would probably have a completely different order, that's what makes it fun.
  12. Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

    1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pre-Draft Needs: OL, RB, DT, CB What They Had Heading into the Draft: 1. 7 2. 38 4. 102 5. 144 6. 180 6. 202 7. 255 What They Had Leaving The Draft: 1. 12. Vita Vea [ DT ] Washington 2. 38. Ronald Jones II [ RB ] USC 2. 53. M. J. Stewart [ CB ] North Carolina 2. 63. Carlton Davis [ CB ] Auburn 3. 94. Alex Cappa [ OT ] Humboldt State 4. 117. Jordan Whitehead [ S ] Pittsburgh 5. 144. Justin Watson [ WR ] Penn 6. 202. Jack Cichy [ LB ] Wisconsin Best Thing About This Draft: This is a great example of how a team picking high, who doesn’t have a need at QB, can create serious value to land more players at premium slots who can make significant contributions. In this instance, there was also an obvious and carefully executed plan around what they wanted out of the players they selected. Clearly they wanted hard-nosed tough guys and had already done an excellent job filling the roster with players that fit the new mold heading into the draft. I’m actually wondering if the back-to-back corner selections in the second round gives them the biggest impact early on. Both are aggressive press corners who won’t back down. MJ Stewart might be better placed to suit up in the slot, where he can be stout and sticky as likes to be. Carlton Davis is built to man up on the outside, disrupt routes and take on the bigger receivers in their division. It's not always pretty, but he'll compete on every down. Worst Thing About This Draft: Other than the parrot who didn't even announce a pick like we were promised, there's not a lot to dislike about this draft. The Vita Vea selection over Derwin James is the big call as the Buccs effectively passed on James twice, with the decision to move down. Vea fits a run stuffing need inside, but picked at 10 he needs to become more than just a good run defender. A similar question needs to be asked of Ronald Jones at 38, is he built to sustain the run game? There will be points where they will need him to answer that question. Late Round Gem: Jack Cichy – An often injured linebacker who made an impact on the field at Wisconsin whenever he was able to suit up. He’s got, dare I say it, a bit of Luke Kuechly cat like quickness around the ball. The Buccs would probably be well suited to stashing him away on PUP and bring him on slowly. It would be a great shame to see his talent never reach its destination. What Else? Vea is a man mammoth with the ability to soak up offensive line resources, the Buccs can legitimately frighten teams with the front four they can field next year. More importantly, it'll help to free up the lighter, faster linebackers who can impact the game in the areas they excel. Ronald Jones brings a playmaking element to the running back position they haven’t had in a while. He was insanely productive at USC and a danger every time he hit the open field. Whilst he's a tougher runner than his frame suggests, the Buccs will need to work out how to get him out in space as much as they can. That's where he can do his most damage. A 3rd round pick was spent on Alex Cappa out of tiny Humbolt State. Jason Licht hasn't been afraid to look at small school offensive linemen. His tape is pretty funny, given how physically dominant he looks against lower tier opposition. He had a decent week at the Senior Bowl and could play some guard or tackle depending on how they see him. Evan Smith at guard, or the under performing left tackle Donovan Smith could be two spots he could conceivably challenge for. Jordan Whitehead in the 4th was very solid, he’s a smaller safety who played mostly in the box at Pittsburgh. He’s athletic and versatile enough to play a number of spots. That leaves 6’3 and 220 pound wide receiver Justin Watson out of the Ivy League. His pro day generated a bit of a ripple after a 4.4 forty and 40 inch leap. He was a dominant receiver at Penn and his athletic profile and production makes him an intriguing prospect, we'll see what that brings.
  13. Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

    2. Chicago Bears Pre-Draft Needs: OL, EDGE, WR, LB What They Had Heading into the Draft: 1. 8 2. 39 4. 105 4. 115 5. 145 6. 181 7. 224 What They Had Leaving The Draft: 1. 8. Roquan Smith [ LB ] Georgia 2. 39. James Daniels [ C ] Iowa 2. 51. Anthony Miller [ WR ] Memphis 4. 115. Joel Iyiegbuniwe [ LB ] Western Kentucky 5. 145. Bilal Nichols [ DT ] Delaware 6. 181. Kylie Fitts [ DE ] Utah 7. 224. Javon Wims [ WR ] Georgia Best Thing About This Draft: The first three selections were three of my favorite draft prospects this year, so naturally I’m a sucker what the Bears did. Smith is the modern day three down linebacker, with the ability to run and chase all game long. If you can he can keep him clean, he could be a total game wrecker in both facets. He's not just bringing a lot of talent to a position of need, that whole Georgia defense fed off this dude's energy. Daniels was great value at 39, he’s a really easy moving interior lineman with an ability to reach and seal blocks with ease is an instant attraction. He’s a nice fit for the heavy zone ground game. Giving up a 2019 2nd to draft another 2nd round pick in Anthony Miller was a lot to give up, but man I love Miller. I love Anthony Miller. He knows how to win early in the route, makes full use of his quickness and body control. He can win in the big and the small game. He’s also got strong hands and balanced feet which all allow him to play bigger than his listed size. He’s also feisty and competitive as hell, those are intangible qualities you want on your team. Worst Thing About This Draft: No obvious edge selection until round 6, even if Fitts is athletically intriguing (and he is) – hopes very much rest on Leonard Floyd and Aaron Lynch to consistently bring the heat from the outside. Late Round Gem: Bilal Nichols – A big winner from the Shrine Game where he showed off his athleticism and an array of advanced skill as an inside pass rusher. He had a big pro-day, putting up a set of results that compared well with some big names in the league. He could become a decent rotational piece if all goes well. What Else? Joel Iyiegbuniwe is another athletic linebacker, known for his speed and blitzing at Western Kentucky. He was a little bit of a curve ball in the 4th, but is a potential special teams ace and back-up early in his career. Kylie Fitts put up some explosive numbers at the combine, with his sub 7 second 3 cone and 4.19 short shuttle. He flashed potential at Utah State, but just hasn’t been able to stay on the field. A lack of stoutness against the run might limit him as a sub-package rusher if he can make the team. Javon Wims was a little lost in a deep receiver class, but has excellent size and led Georgia with 7 touchdown catches last year. He does catch the ball well in traffic and has beautiful body control, which might be how he needs to win at the next level.
  14. Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

    Ah yeah, I remember all that weird dad stuff from last year. Nothing new seemed to come out during the draft process though right? Seeing as a lot people were still expecting him to go day two-ish. It makes sense though, I wonder if there’s some weird stuff to come out. I didn’t know about the no stretching stuff though, that’s pretty hilarious.
  15. Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

    3. Green Bay Packers Pre-Draft Needs: WR, EDGE, DB, LB What They Had Heading into the Draft: 1. 14 2. 45 3. 76 4. 101 4. 133 5. 138 5. 172 5. 174 6. 186 6. 207 7. 232 7. 239 What They Had Leaving The Draft: 1. 18. Jaire Alexander [ CB ] Louisville 2. 45. Josh Jackson [ CB ] Iowa 3. 88. Oren Burks [ LB ] Vanderbilt 4. 133. J'Mon Moore [ WR ] Missouri 5. 138. Cole Madison [ G ] Washington State 5. 172. JK Scott [ P ] Alabama 5. 174. Marquez Valdes-Scantling [ WR ] South Florida 6. 207. Equanimeous St. Brown [ WR ] Notre Dame 7. 232. James Looney [ DE ] California 7. 239. Hunter Bradley [ LS ] Mississippi State 7. 248. Kendall Donnerson [ OLB ] Southeast Missouri State 2019 1st round pick from the Saints Best Thing About This Draft: This is a draft for additional size, speed and athleticism, clearly something they felt they needed. Among his very first moves during a draft as GM of the Green Bay Packers, Brian Gutekunst selected two first round corner prospects and prised a 2019 1st round pick out of the Saints. That is extremely solid work. That should set them up for years at corner, with last year’s 2nd rounder Kevin King still on the team and Tramon Williams returning from Cleveland. Jaire Alexander is an uber aggressive and competitive trash talking cornerback who can play outside or in the slot. He played on an island more often than not in Louisville and he's also got bonus ball skills which make him a constant threat at the back end. Speaking of ball skills, Josh Jackson was taken in the 2nd round when most thought he would go somewhere in the middle of the first. His USP is his ability to take the ball away, whilst there’s perhaps a question around the fit in Pettine’s scheme – he's certainly got the size to make it work and that playmaking ability remains exciting. Worst Thing About This Draft: Everyone expected the Packers to take an edge rusher with Clay Matthews getting up there in age, but it looks like it’s going to be more of the same there next year. Edge rusher isn't the golden goose position in Pettine's scheme, so I can see why they preferred to focus on defensive backs as he likes to create pressure through creative blitzes and needs corners who can hold up on the back end. Matthews could then be released as an inside blitzer more often. Late Round Gem: Equanimeous St. Brown - One of the mysterious fallers in this year’s class, I don’t think it was off-field related from what I’ve heard. Whilst the production didn’t always match the physical talent at Notre Dame, at 6’5 with legitimate deep speed, he could become that deep speed threat on the outside for a team that’s re-tooling at receiver. What Else? Oren Burks had the kind of workout at the combine that landed him in the 94.9th percentile amongst NFL linebackers and had everyone rushing back to the tape. And, the tape is actually not at all bad. Whilst many athletic hybrid marvels were taken to project what they could become, Burks was already lining up at linebacker, safety, in the slot and as a designated pass-rusher. He's already been used as a multiple positionless defender and that's how I think he'll continue to be used. I like J’Mon Moore selection in the 4th round, he’s another bigger receiver at 6’3 and 210 pounds. He's not a burner, but more of a larger slot who tested incredibly well outside of a slower forty time including an insanely good 3 cone of 6.56. That fluidity and suddenness shows up on film in his route running and his ability to separate in crowded areas. Cole Maddison was announced as a guard despite playing tackle at Washington State. That makes sense, he sort fits the mold of a functionally sound Packers linemen who have been selected later and come through the ranks to become contributors. JK Scott can boom some kicks and he’s built like a linebacker, was generally seen as a solid 2 to Michael Dickson’s 1 in a good quality punter draft. At 6’4, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was mild surprise in the 5th, but clearly was part of a plan to get deeper and bigger at wide receiver. There’s going to be an open competition for places there this year. He’s never been particularly productive at NC State or USF, but his 4.37 speed makes for an exciting package to work with. James Looney turned some heads at the combine, putting together a workout that put him in the 93rd percentile amongst NFL defensive linemen. He never reached that peak at Cal, but could be useful defensive line depth. We also have a long snapper in Hunter Bradley, I can confirm his snaps are long. I hope so at least. Kendall Donnerson was the only edge prospect taken, right at the end of the draft. It looks like he’s been drafted entirely based on an insane workout where put up a sub 4.5 forty and a 40 inch vertical. Clearly there are some rare tools to work with.
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