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minutemancl

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  1. 2018-2019 NFL Season Predictions (Awards)

    You alright buddy?
  2. Eagles cut Kendricks (officially signs with Cleveland)

    Giants have a need at LB and he's played his best ball in a 3-4. He'd be a welcome addition in NY.
  3. Kenyan Drake

    Hot take: the Eagles rushing success is based on their scheme (wham plays) and the efficiency/talent of their OL. They would have had a just as an effective running game with Clement/Blount. As far as Drake, this is probably the 3rd time I've heard that he impressed down the stretch last year. He nor the Dolphins were on my radar last year. I'll have to give his tape a watch. I remember thinking he was an underutilized but impressive player at Bama.
  4. 2018-2019 NFL Season Predictions (Awards)

    The Giants could be the 2nd best in the division, but no one in the nfc east is touching the Eagles this year. I expect their offense to be figured out a bit with a full year of solid tape and a target on their backs, but their depth and coaching is too good.
  5. If we carry 4 RBs, he might. So did a lot of people. He has been utterly lost on the field. He couldn't have looked worse. Chad Wheeler is 10x better than Bisnowaty is. Maybe Detroit can turn him around.
  6. Shaun Alexander; HOFer?

    I'd put Tiki in the hall before I put Shaun Alexander. I don't think either should be in.
  7. Eli Manning on trial for fake memorabilia scam

    It got settled, so this 4 year long ordeal is now done. From what I've read, the Maras have been too loyal to the Skiba brothers- those 2 are trouble.
  8. 2018-2019 NFL Season Predictions (Awards)

    Just some relevant history for the NFC East... 2011: 1st place- NYG, last place- WAS 2012: 1st place- WAS, last place- PHL 2013: 1st place- PHL, last place- WAS 2014: 1st place- DAL, last place- WAS 2015: 1st place- WAS, last place- DAL 2016: 1st place- DAL, last place- PHL 2017: 1st place- PHL, last place- NYG Jumping from last to first place in one year is commonplace. It is an extremely volatile division.
  9. He was a big time boom or bust prospect. If scarnecchia couldnt get it out of him, no one can.
  10. Drafts over.. Dez maybe now??

    Because he absolutely will not get enough targets in this offense. He'd be the 4th option at best.
  11. Rookie Camp

    He's a pass catching tight end in the mold of an Evan Engram. He's a tier below those unbelievable athletes (Saquon Barkley, Jadaveon Clowney, Myles Garrett, etc) in terms of pure athletic ability. He played at a smaller school with minimal production, thanks to a coaching staff that just inexplicably stopped using a TE in their offense, so I didn't expect him to get drafted. He went the juco route and worked his *** off. I'm not at all surprised the Browns saw that and signed him after his tryout. I don't know how much use Haley has for a player like that in his offense, but I could definitely see him sticking around on special teams until he gets his shot at TE. The reason he went undrafted was because he just wasn't used. And that is exclusively thanks to the coaching staff just not using a TE in their passing game. Really, really strange. His first game at Southern Miss he put up 30 yards and a touchdown. Fans were really excited to see more of him. The talent and work ethic is all there. Even if I didn't know him, I'd have him ranked as one of those diamond in the rough players where a team who really does their homework will come away with a hell of a player.
  12. Rookie Camp

    My buddy Julian Allen signed with you guys. Hope he makes your 53. He's an extremely hard worker and has got great height, speed, and hands.
  13. Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

    B is definitely something to keep an eye on. He's said all the right things so far, as far as learning from his first experience as HC in Cleveland. The players are buying in wholeheartedly so far- there is more team bonding going on already than there was all last year. If Shurmur and the Giants fail, it will be because Shurmur isn't head coaching material.
  14. Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

    With Shurmur running the show, I think Eli has a bounceback season. I think the football community as a whole underrates the impact an actually good coach can have on a quarterback and an offense, and I think Shurmur is an actual good coach. I'm watching back Vikings games from last season and I'm coming away more and more impressed with not only his ability to get the most out of his players and play to their strengths, but his ability to adapt with no players inserted into the lineup as well. I don't see why Eli can't have the season Keenum had last year; the offense is more talented than the one in Minny, Eli is much more experienced than Keenum, and contrary to popular belief here, Eli has not lost anything physically. After more film review, he displays some lazy behaviors that got him in trouble a lot last year, but they are easily things Shurmur can disguise/fix. Maybe I'm just being optomistic, but from a technical standpoint, knowing why Eli struggled last year and knowing Shurmur's strengths as an offensive mind and playcaller, Eli should have a good year.
  15. Validity of an nflWAR statistic

    I was reading yet another article today about the devaluation of RBs, especially as it pertains to the draft. It touched on the regular points every other one of these articles does: it is unwise from a economic perspective as the guaranteed money and average of the contract a top-5 pick RB makes is substantially more at their position than at another, and that a RB by committee, using players acquired through free agency and late in the draft, can you get you similar production. However, one thing about this article stood out. The author mentioned an nflWAR statistic used in a graph they presented. They used it when comparing RBs picked high in the draft compared to those taken later. WAR, wins above replacement, is a statistic that has been used in baseball for a while now ever since teams started utilizing sabermetrics. WAR in baseball always made sense to me though: in any given instance, there are a limited number of factors that contribute to the success or failure of an at-bat. It doesn't get much more intricate or complicated than the relationship between 2 players on the field, the pitcher and the batter. (Obviously if the batter makes contact, fielding is factored in, but unless Arod is running the bases, the result of the play there depends on the player fielding the ball, the player getting the ball thrown to them for a tag or force out, and the base runner. Three factors that can all be measured. There is no one blocking the base runner from running or trying to steal the ball away from the infielder). I've always thought that creating a similar analytical approach to football would be impossible. There are 22 players on the field at a time and with so many moving pieces, it is impossible to create a reproducible method of assigning a wins above replacement grade to each player. If you want the full story on how a player performs and how good or bad they are, you watch film exclusively for that player and grade their snaps based on their responsibilities. With 10 other players all affecting the individual performance of 1 player, there are too many confounding variables to get a reliable grade based on analytics alone. So after hearing about this nflWAR, I decided to look it up myself. What I found was 3 people (students? adjuncts?) from Carnegie Mellon University who created a reproducible nflWAR statistic for offensive players. You can find it yourself here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.00998. It is an in depth 43 page pdf that goes into the whole process of creating their nflWAR. If you have the time, please read it and give me your thoughts. As to the actual thread title, here is what I noticed and gathered. The nflWAR statistic as it is posed here, as i postured before and continue to believe, is highly flawed. I don't think it will ever be not flawed. The authors make a good attempt though. For one, they limit their nflWAR only to those offensive players who directly touch the ball on a play: QBs, RBs, TEs, WRs. Offensive skill players. They acknowledge that the OL plays a part in the success or failure of a play, but due to their goal of making this reproducible and only reliant on publicly available information, they can only give a grade for the OL as a whole with no acknowledgement as to the actual players playing those positions. This means it doesn't include the quality of those players, much less how or why they lost their rep. This is the biggest issue for me on why this fails, and the reason for that should be obvious. Another facet this statistic seems to fail in is in situations like these: the play call is a pass play to the x receiver running a slant. The receiver gets way too much depth in his route, allowing a heady corner to jump the route and get an interception. Overall, there doesn't seem to be built in accommodations for teammates failing in their responsibilities which therefore reflects on a player who can be graded. Read it over and let me know what you guys think about this. Am I wrong and is it actually a pretty good and effective way to measure a player's worth? Or do you think like me that there are too many confounding variables that are unaccounted for? For what its worth, I think this is a really impressive effort that really only falters in that one area. The authors account for a lot of areas you don't have to in baseball, such as down and distance and time remaining.
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