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6th Round Pick (207th Overall): Equanimeous St. Brown [WR; Notre Dame]

Packerraymond

By Packerraymond
in Green Bay Packers

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skibrett15

skibrett15

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's a cop out.  LIS, if one of them hits it's because they threw enough darts at the board that one of them was bound to hit.  Similar to last year with the RBs, between the three picks one of them was bound to hit.  Unfortunately, the success rate of Day 3 WRs isn't as good as RBs.  There's a reason why Day 3 WRs usually don't make an impact.  They're usually lacking in one or multiple areas, and QBs don't trust them.  They fell for a reason.

yeah but it's also true that day 3 receivers almost never walk into a situation where if they perform well they can see the field as rookies.  Teams take day 1-2 receivers when there is a starting spot up for grabs.  Right now there's a starting spoi in 11 personnel available on this team, and there are only day 3 rookies and udfa players available to fill that spot.

No matter what happens, 3rd year UDFA Allison, 5th round veteran Trevor Davis, 7th round PS guy Dupre or 4th/5th/6th round rookie is going to start for this team.  Put me firmly in the 4th/5th/6th round rookie camp over the other options.

All of these guys are pretty trash NFL players.  The rookies probably won't be day 1 starters, but one of them will be the week 16 starter.

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Golfman

Golfman

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Trust me, I'd LOVE to be wrong on this one and one of them turn out to be a Day 1 starter.  But it's going beyond year and years of history of young WRs being slow to transition.  Geronimo is our #3 WR by default, and if we sign a veteran WR he's probably going to lose his roster spot because of it.  He doesn't offer much upside, and he's got limited ST value.

If we do bring in a vet, he's almost certainly gone unless the basketball WR's all flop. Which, sad to say, could also happen. 

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CWood21

CWood21

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1 minute ago, packerjmf said:

WRs we've taken in rounds 4+ since 2005:

Craig Bragg (6th)
Corey Rodgers (4th)
David Clowney (5th)
Brett Swain (7th)
Charles Johnson (7th)
Kevin Dorsey (7th)
Jared Abbrederis (5th)
Jeff Janis (7th)
Trevor Davis (5th)
DeAngelo Yancey (5th)
Malachi Dupre (7th)

Not exactly a group of world beaters...

Hell, go look at the WRs drafted on Day 3 since 2010.  There's been 151 WRs drafted on Day 3 going back to 2010.  Of those 151, only 20 of those 151 have a cAV of at least 10.  That's a success rate of a little over 13%.  That's not very good.

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Leader

Leader

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7 minutes ago, Golfman said:

You are definitely correct! I guess I'm just overly optimistic that one of the 'hoop' players steps up and takes it from him, and thus renders him expendable. Make no mistake, they will have to take it away from him, because on the roster right now, he's clearly #3. 

Correct. Allison is nothing if not assignment sure. Thats what I think they perceived to be the problem - no "talent" was pushing him or excelling past him. Not that Alllison CANT improve. Certainly he can - but what if he doesnt - THEN - what happens with either Adams, Cobb (or God forbid both) lose time to injury. Our WR corps is dead in the water. We're all dressed up (with AR) but nowhere to go (ie to throw the ball).

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skibrett15

skibrett15

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Hell, go look at the WRs drafted on Day 3 since 2010.  There's been 151 WRs drafted on Day 3 going back to 2010.  Of those 151, only 20 of those 151 have a cAV of at least 10.  That's a success rate of a little over 13%.  That's not very good.

none of our options are very good though.  All of our current options fall into that category.  Allison will also end his career with a cAV under 10.

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CWood21

CWood21

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1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

yeah but it's also true that day 3 receivers almost never walk into a situation where if they perform well they can see the field as rookies.  Teams take day 1-2 receivers when there is a starting spot up for grabs.  Right now there's a starting spoi in 11 personnel available on this team, and there are only day 3 rookies and udfa players available to fill that spot.

No matter what happens, UDFA Allison, 5th round veteran Trevor Davis, 7th round PS guy Dupre or 4th/5th/6th round rookie is going to start for this team.  Put me firmly in the 4th/5th/6th round rookie camp over the other options.

We've seen plenty of WRs have a clear path to a starting spot.  They may not be able to play with Aaron Rodgers of the world at QB, but there are plenty of Day 3 WRs who had a clearish path to a starting spot.  You're willing to put up with those mistakes, because those mistakes are stuff like drops for you.  Those mistakes for McCarthy are passes that turn into interceptions or untimely penalties.

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Golfman

Golfman

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2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Hell, go look at the WRs drafted on Day 3 since 2010.  There's been 151 WRs drafted on Day 3 going back to 2010.  Of those 151, only 20 of those 151 have a cAV of at least 10.  That's a success rate of a little over 13%.  That's not very good.

In my best Jim Carrey voice, "so you're telling me there's a chance!?"

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packfanfb

packfanfb

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4 minutes ago, St Vince said:

If any of them show anything during the preseason I cant see Gute exposing them to the PS. We just drafted 3 Marques Colstons but with speed. Two will replace Jordy and Janis, the other will push Davis off the roster. From what I hear they love Allison, I think he's safe. Clark has intriguing potential. I cant see them getting rid of a 6'6" WR with promise. Personally I wish they'd convert him to TE, he has good hands but still raw. Think they hang on to him one more year to see what he can develop into.

Interesting you bring up Colston. Why? Because he's in the 5%...that is, big, low round WR who turned out to have a better than average career. Now think about the 50 other guys who were "Colstons" whose names you don't know because they never became anything. We could have just drafted 3 of those guys.....or maybe we have "3 Marques Colstons." The odds don't support your position, however. Moreover, even if one of these guys does become a better than average WR, it likely isn't happening in year 1. If we were the Browns, I wouldn't care. 2018 isn't a throw-away year though, we are trying to win a SB. 

We could certainly keep all 3 as our 4, 5 and 6 guys. In that scenario, Allison should be gone in favor of an experienced vet who is brought in to by our Day 1 starter opposite Adams. 

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incognito_man

incognito_man

Posted
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4 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

yeah but it's also true that day 3 receivers almost never walk into a situation where if they perform well they can see the field as rookies.  Teams take day 1-2 receivers when there is a starting spot up for grabs.  Right now there's a starting spoi in 11 personnel available on this team, and there are only day 3 rookies and udfa players available to fill that spot.

No matter what happens, 3rd year UDFA Allison, 5th round veteran Trevor Davis, 7th round PS guy Dupre or 4th/5th/6th round rookie is going to start for this team.  Put me firmly in the 4th/5th/6th round rookie camp over the other options.

All of these guys are pretty trash NFL players.  The rookies probably won't be day 1 starters, but one of them will be the week 16 starter.

Dupre ain't on the team ;)

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CWood21

CWood21

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1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

none of our options are very good though.  All of our current options fall into that category.  Allison will also end his career with a cAV under 10.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2016&year_max=2016&draft_round_min=4&draft_round_max=7&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=wr&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default

With the exception of Tyreek Hill, you could make that Geronimo Allison is a top 3 producer when compared to Day 3 WRs in 2016.  Tajae Sharpe and Richardo Louis are the only ones who are even close in terms of production.  Granted, it's not a high bar to clear but that goes to show you how little production teams get out of Day 3 WRs especially when they're young.

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packfanfb

packfanfb

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1 hour ago, Gopackgonerd said:

Question is what can't these guys do what Allision can? I don't think he's much better than these guys right now besides having NFL experience. I think J'mon will beat him out ultimately for that 3rd spot, he seems like a smoother route runner and has more speed.

We have no idea what these guys can do. None of them have ever lined up against an NFL CB. History tells us that simply being Day 3 picks, they are going to struggle early on and odds are 1 or 2 of them will never become anything. 

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Golfman

Golfman

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Just now, CWood21 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2016&year_max=2016&draft_round_min=4&draft_round_max=7&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=wr&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default

With the exception of Tyreek Hill, you could make that Geronimo Allison is a top 3 producer when compared to Day 3 WRs in 2016.  Tajae Sharpe and Richardo Louis are the only ones who are even close in terms of production.  Granted, it's not a high bar to clear but that goes to show you how little production teams get out of Day 3 WRs especially when they're young.

Wasn't the Vikings guy a 4th round pick? Drawing a complete blank on his name too. 

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