6th Round Pick (207th Overall): Equanimeous St. Brown [WR; Notre Dame]

[packfanfb]

35 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Yeah, I think you live with a few mistakes, and give the best of the 3 the chance to be the full time 3rd WR at the END of the season when the games start to matter.  It's worth investing the time into playing these guys into shape.  Allison is not going to become much more than he is right now.

I'll take the mistakes if we can find guys who correct them and improve.

Huh? Last time I checked, one of the best teams in the conference is in our division. If you plan to struggle early on this season and drop any games you should win, you're not winning the division and good luck winning 3 road games in the playoffs against this field. This isn't 2010. 

[CWood21]

Just now, Golfman said:

Wasn't the Vikings guy a 4th round pick? Drawing a complete blank on his name too. 

I think you're thinking of Stefon Diggs, and he was a 5th round pick.  I'd also make the argument that he was the exception. BTW, he was drafted in 2015. 

[Golfman]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I think you're thinking of Stefon Diggs, and he was a 5th round pick.  I'd also make the argument that he was the exception. BTW, he was drafted in 2015. 

No, I get ya! The stats don't lie, he was the exception, but it does happen and taking three bites of the apple increases the odds to about 40-45%. 

[incognito_man]

5 minutes ago, packerjmf said:

I think we'll be lucky if one of the rookies can be a Ruvell Martin for us this season, given late round WRs usual production.

looking at the WRs taken by GB after round 3 for the last decade has zero relevance on judging these 3 WRs.

[CWood21]

Just now, incognito_man said:

looking at the WRs taken by GB after round 3 for the last decade has zero relevance on judging these 3 WRs.

You're right.  But looking at the history of Day 3 WRs gives us a relatively good idea what to expect out of them.  Does it mean it's 100%?  No, but it's a percentage thing.

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2016&year_max=2016&draft_round_min=4&draft_round_max=7&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=wr&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default

With the exception of Tyreek Hill, you could make that Geronimo Allison is a top 3 producer when compared to Day 3 WRs in 2016.  Tajae Sharpe and Richardo Louis are the only ones who are even close in terms of production.  Granted, it's not a high bar to clear but that goes to show you how little production teams get out of Day 3 WRs especially when they're young.

To my knowledge only Tajae Sharpe and Malcom Mitchell, who has outperformed Allison in limited games, have had any kind of opportunity to produce.  Did they not produce because they weren't better than someone like Allison, or were the guys ahead of them just a lot better than Allison?  Easy to not produce when you don't get any snaps.

Pretty sure Allison doesn't belong in the NFL.

These rookies are in a very unique situation in that there's no high draft picks ahead of them, no talented players ahead of them, and the only experienced guy is an untalented UDFA who has averaged 1 catch for 18 yards in his 25 games of experience.

 

This starting role can be the least important pass catcher on the field at any given time.  They just run clear outs and back side posts and the like.  If they show they deserve more action, they get it.  They are easily behind Cobb, Adams, Graham, and probably also behind the RB if it's Jones or Montgomery.

[St Vince]

2 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Interesting you bring up Colston. Why? Because he's in the 5%...that is, big, low round WR who turned out to have a better than average career. Now think about the 50 other guys who were "Colstons" whose names you don't know because they never became anything. We could have just drafted 3 of those guys.....or maybe we have "3 Marques Colstons." The odds don't support your position, however. Moreover, even if one of these guys does become a better than average WR, it likely isn't happening in year 1. If we were the Browns, I wouldn't care. 2018 isn't a throw-away year though, we are trying to win a SB. 

We could certainly keep all 3 as our 4, 5 and 6 guys. In that scenario, Allison should be gone in favor of an experienced vet who is brought in to by our Day 1 starter opposite Adams. 

I think Colstons success was squarely on the arm of a future hall of fame QB Brees. He would've been below average playing with Rex Grossman or Dauntee Culpepper. That's my argument, those guys playing with a QB like Rodgers could provide the same success. My dream scenario would be to swap Allison with Dez and let the youngsters develop behind 3 playmaking vets.

[skibrett15]

7 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Huh? Last time I checked, one of the best teams in the conference is in our division. If you plan to struggle early on this season and drop any games you should win, you're not winning the division and good luck winning 3 road games in the playoffs against this field. This isn't 2010. 

I'm just saying they don't have to play a ton at the beginning of the season.  Give the most promising guy over the course of the season the chance to be the starter going into the playoffs.

[packerjmf]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

looking at the WRs taken by GB after round 3 for the last decade has zero relevance on judging these 3 WRs.

Of course they're different players, but given where we drafted them the odds of them giving us much production is slim. Barring injury (although injury seems like an inevitability given our usual luck), the rookies will for sure be behind Adams, Cobb, and Graham for opportunities. Additionally, Kendricks could see some looks if he can bounce back from his poor performance last year, and given Jones and Williams playing well at RB, I'd think Monty getting some looks as more of a receiving-type weapon is well within the realm of possibility.

[packfanfb]

3 minutes ago, St Vince said:

I think Colstons success was squarely on the arm of a future hall of fame QB Brees. He would've been below average playing with Rex Grossman or Dauntee Culpepper. That's my argument, those guys playing with a QB like Rodgers could provide the same success. My dream scenario would be to swap Allison with Dez and let the youngsters develop behind 3 playmaking vets.

Now you're speaking my language. Just made this point in the FA thread. No argument here. 

[Gopackgonerd]

25 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Because look at the list of WRs drafted on Day 3, and look how much success they don't have in Year 1.  The list of Day 3 WRs who have success as a rookie are few and far between.  IF the Packers manage to get production out of one of them, it's because they threw enough darts at the board that one of them hit.  Success rate on Day 3 WRs as rookies isn't very high at all.

I'm just more a believer in this year compared to years past because that 3rd spot is so up in the air losing Jordy. It's just so hard for me to say Allison is a lock there right now, but that's just my opinion. 

[packfanfb]

2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I'm just saying they don't have to play a ton at the beginning of the season.  Give the most promising guy over the course of the season the chance to be the starter going into the playoffs.

I agree and that's fine, but you still need to put your best 11 guys forward for those games while your bring these rookies along. What's the rush? Sign a play-making vet and let these guys learn. 

[Gopackgonerd]

16 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

We have no idea what these guys can do. None of them have ever lined up against an NFL CB. 

I mean you can say that for any rookie WR. 

[packfanfb]

1 minute ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I'm just more a believer in this year compared to years past because that 3rd spot is so up in the air losing Jordy. It's just so hard for me to say Allison is a lock there right now, but that's just my opinion. 

Alison shouldn't be a lock, but Jordy's "2018" replacement also isn't on this team right now IMO. 

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, packerjmf said:

Of course they're different players, but given where we drafted them the odds of them giving us much production is slim. Barring injury (although injury seems like an inevitability given our usual luck), the rookies will for sure be behind Adams, Cobb, and Graham for opportunities. Additionally, Kendricks could see some looks if he can bounce back from his poor performance last year, and given Jones and Williams playing well at RB, I'd think Monty getting some looks as more of a receiving-type weapon is well within the realm of possibility.

my point is, Moore is a 4th round pick which isn't a late round type to me. He's also way more talented than what I'd expect a 4th round pick to be. This is also a new GM, so comparing past GM picks loses relevance too.

Just saying, posting a list of former late round GB picks and alluding that it means these guys are gonna bust too doesn't pass muster.