So, tell me who had the best and worst drafts?

[packfanfb]

15 hours ago, incognito_man said:

I think JMon could be elite in the slot at some point. Don't be fooled by his height. I think the best talent on the field would be: Adams, ESB, JMon, Graham, Jones.

Could very well be the case in 2019. I think 2018 is premature for the two rooks. J'Mon has the best chance to get serious playing time early, but I'm not expecting his contribution to be any more significant than Adams in 2014 when he started to come on later in the year (NE game, playoff game v. Dallas). 

[eyecatcher]

34 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

So, who had the best draft ? Will it move the needle in Vegas ?

Here's the top 12 in SB odds as of 4/2/18 and I'll post them again when they are updated post draft. Not expecting much movement

New England Patriots	6/1
Los Angeles Rams	10/1
Minnesota Vikings	10/1
Philadelphia Eagles	10/1
Green Bay Packers	12/1
Pittsburgh Steelers	12/1
San Francisco 49ers	14/1
Houston Texans	16/1
Atlanta Falcons	20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars	20/1
Los Angeles Chargers	20/1
New Orleans Saints	20/1

 

As of yesterday.

• New England Patriots – 4/1
• Philadelphia Eagles – 11/2
• Green Bay Packers – 15/2
• Pittsburgh Steelers – 8/1
• Minnesota Vikings – 9/1
• Los Angeles Rams – 9/1
• Dallas Cowboys – 13/1
• Atlanta Falcons – 15/1
• New Orleans Saints – 15/1
• San Francisco 49ers – 16/1
• Carolina Panthers – 18/1
• Jacksonville Jaguars – 18/1

[incognito_man]

37 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Could very well be the case in 2019. I think 2018 is premature for the two rooks. J'Mon has the best chance to get serious playing time early, but I'm not expecting his contribution to be any more significant than Adams in 2014 when he started to come on later in the year (NE game, playoff game v. Dallas). 

I forget who was ahead of Adams in '14. Jordy, Cobb, anyone else better than Allison?

[packfanfb]

Just now, incognito_man said:

I forget who was ahead of Adams in '14. Jordy, Cobb, anyone else better than Allison?

I think Boykin may have been on the team...

[incognito_man]

12 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I think Boykin may have been on the team...

So not much else either. Hm. I'll concede the point, but reserve the right to 'tell everyone so' when Moore goes off

[Uffdaswede]

^ haha...I think both sides are hedged enough that they can say either "I told you so" or "I never said he was(n't)" on all of our draft choices.

[jleisher]

4 hours ago, eyecatcher said:

Cleveland was far from the worst.  They were above average for sure.  

Really?  With all the high picks they had, they should have smoked everyone.  Was their draft bad, no, but it should have been better with the high picks.

[jleisher]

2 hours ago, eyecatcher said:

As of yesterday.

• New England Patriots – 4/1
• Philadelphia Eagles – 11/2
• Green Bay Packers – 15/2
• Pittsburgh Steelers – 8/1
• Minnesota Vikings – 9/1
• Los Angeles Rams – 9/1
• Dallas Cowboys – 13/1
• Atlanta Falcons – 15/1
• New Orleans Saints – 15/1
• San Francisco 49ers – 16/1
• Carolina Panthers – 18/1
• Jacksonville Jaguars – 18/1

Dallas went from not evening being on the list, to #6.  DAMB!  Same with Panther 0 to #10.  Worst, Chargers and Texans both fell off that list.

[eyecatcher]

3 minutes ago, jleisher said:

Really?  With all the high picks they had, they should have smoked everyone.  Was their draft bad, no, but it should have been better with the high picks.

It's all subjective.  Ward is gonna be a damn good addition and I like the Mayfield pick at 1.  I had him over all the others.  I just don't agree that is was one of the bottom 4.  It was top 15 which isn't the worst.

[squire12]

3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

So, who had the best draft ? Will it move the needle in Vegas ?

Here's the top 12 in SB odds as of 4/2/18 and I'll post them again when they are updated post draft. Not expecting much movement

New England Patriots	6/1
Los Angeles Rams	10/1
Minnesota Vikings	10/1
Philadelphia Eagles	10/1
Green Bay Packers	12/1
Pittsburgh Steelers	12/1
San Francisco 49ers	14/1
Houston Texans	16/1
Atlanta Falcons	20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars	20/1
Los Angeles Chargers	20/1
New Orleans Saints	20/1

 

Always have to wonder if this is what Vegas things is the odds of the team getting there or where they set the odds based on public wagering?

Lines and odds move based on where the $$ goes without any definitive change in players or situations during the season from a Wednesday to a Saturday.

[Shanedorf]

If you stay with one site, you can see the movement in SB odds over time. If you pull from different sites each time, its much harder to discern

The SB lines moved a little in FA, the Rams certainly jumped up after that haul. Cousins moved the vikes line too. I was curious to see if the draft moved the needle as well. Vegas is interested in making money so these odds are a blend of what the sharps think and what the betting public believes

( two very different things as you noted) Packers were as high as 40-1 last year during the Hundley Era

VegasInsider pulls odds together from multiple spots and posts their numbers-  sort of an aggregator, so I've used that over the years.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

[Kepler]

4 hours ago, jleisher said:

DAMB!

I like this word. 

[CWood21]

1(28) - Terrell Edmunds [S; Virginia Tech]
2(60) - James Washington [WR; Oklahoma State]
3(76) - Mason Rudolph [QB; Oklahoma State]
3(92) - Chukwuma Okorafor [OT; Western Michigan]
5(148) - Marcus Allen [S; Penn State]
5(165) - Jaylen Samuels [TE; NC State]
7(246) - Joshua Frazier [DT; Alabama]

The Steelers draft was well...interesting to say the least.  I think the best thing I heard about the Steelers draft in the first two days was that the Steelers thought they drafted Tremaine Edmunds, and not Terrell Edmunds with their initial pick.  That being said, it's hard to get excited about the Steelers' draft.  Quite frankly, I'm not quite sure what their goal out of this draft was because it seems all over the place.  I had Terrell Emunds graded out as an early Day 3 pick, at best a late Day 2 pick which given that the Steelers picked at 28 seems bad value at best.  Given that the Steelers probably weren't in the mood to help the Ravens find their QBOTF, it's probably safe to assume that they wouldn't have taken the deal from the Ravens that would have netted their '19 2nd round pick. Still, it's hard to believe they couldn't have moved down into the second round and picked up an additional asset, likely in the form of a 4th round pick.  As for Edmunds himself, he's not as good a prospect as his brother but his value lies in the flexibility that the Steelers can move him around the defensive backfield.  He tested well at the Combine but didn't play that well at Virginia Tech and was probably the shock of the first round.  I'm always going to put a higher premium on rangy safeties, which is probably why I'm lower on Edmunds than I probably should.  But his versatility on the football field makes him an easy slot into multiple roles.  Unfortunately, Day 2 went worse for the Steelers in my eyes than Day 1.  At the very least, Edmunds has versatility going for him.  The Steelers took James Washington in the second round, and with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the mix he's probably not going to be asked to shoulder the load.  Most of his production at Oklahoma State was as a deep threat, and they've got a really good in Antonio Brown.  I've got questions about his ability to play in the short-to-intermediate range.  He's not the best receiver with the ball in his hands, but the Steelers have always put a premium on guys who can threaten deep.  They paired James Washington with his college QB, Mason Rudolph.  To say I wasn't a fan of Mason Rudolph is putting it mildly.  Like Washington, I had him as a Day 3 prospect and his questionable accuracy in the short-to-intermediate accuracy.  Ultimately though, the success rate of Day 2 QBs is pretty damn miserable and I've got no reason to believe that Rudolph is going to buck those trends.  I'm still not totally sure where Chukwuma Okorafor fits in on the offensive line.  I'm not sure he's got the pass pro skills to play LT at the next level, and his lack of aggression wonders if guard is the fit for him.  If he's not able to play left tackle, that limits his flexibility on game days.  He needs to spend time strengthening his core and continuing to work on his technique.  Marcus Allen adds more depth in the backfield, and should be a solid special teams player.  Ultimately though, I'm not sure there's much upside with him.  Jaylen Samuels is probably the player I'm most intrigued by, and not because I think he's some special player but because I think his flexibility on game days is going to keep him in the league.  He's not a natural back, and he's not big enough to play as an in-line blocker which probably lends him to be more of an offensive weapon rather than having a particular position on offense.  I'm not convinced there's much with Joshua Frazier.  He doesn't offer much in terms of pass rush, which limits him into a run-stopping role.  Add on the lack of athleticism and I'm not sure he's going to be much more than a PS player.  This is a draft class that I hope I'm wrong, but this isn't a class I'd be happy about if I were a Steelers fans.  It lacks upside and it lacks floor, which is a scary proposition especially given the transition period the Steelers are likely going to be undergoing in the next 2-3 years.

Best Value Pick: Jaylen Samuels [TE; NC State]
Worst Value Pick: Terrell Edmunds [S; Virginia Tech]
Grade: D+

[CWood21]

1(8) - Roquan Smith [LB; Georgia]
2(39) - James Daniels [C; Iowa]
2(51) - Anthony Miller [WR; Memphis]
4(115) - Joel Iyiegbuniwe [LB; Western Kentucky]
5(145) - Bilal Nichols [DT; Delaware]
6(181) - Kylie Fitts [EDGE; Utah]
7(224) - Javon Wims [WR; Georgia]

It's hard to find much to fault with the Bears draft, they got a good combination of upside and floors.  It might not go down as the sexiest of drafts, but this is probably a draft class that 10+ years down the road we're looking back and talking about the impact that this draft class had on the Bears' fortune.  Let's start at the beginning where the Bears tabbed Roquan Smith with the 8th overall pick.  Personally, I had Tremaine Edmunds as my top ranked LB and largely was based on the upside possessed.  Given his relative small stature, I had some questions about his ability to hold up in traffic particularly if the lineman in front of him were unable to sustain their blockers allowing him to make their move.  Ultimately though, it's hard to believe that he won't be productive with the Bears especially after producing at a high level at Georgia against tough SEC competition.  James Daniels graded out as my highest ranked C prospect in this year's drat, and figures to be a relatively safe bet to to anchor the offensive line for the next decade.  Billy Price and Frank Ragnow would have been ultimately graded higher than Daniels, in large part because I felt that Ragnow and Price had legitimate value as guard prospects as well.  I didn't really see guard value in Daniels, which is probably part of the reason why he fell into the second round where Billy Price and Frank Ragnow went in the first round.  Grabbing Anthony Miller towards the tail end of the second round is good value for him, although I question his fit outside of the slot.  The bigger issue I have is with what they gave up to secure him.  After giving up their third round pick as part of the Mitchell Trubisky trade, they had to give up a '19 2nd round pick to receive the pick from the Patriots.  Barring short of a significant improvement out of Mitchell Trubisky, they figure to be a bottom 10 team so giving up a pick in the 33-42 range is going to be hard to swallow.  The only WR's of value that I had left were Michael Gallup, so if you're fine with what they gave up then the value of the pick itself isn't bad.  In the fourth round, the Bears took Joel Iyiegbuniwe out of Western Kentucky who declared early for the NFL draft.  While I question his decision, it's not for me to judge when he's the one making the decision.  As for the player himself, he's a tremendous athlete but his lack of size is going to create struggles for him to succeed and he's going to fill in the same role as Roquan Smith which would indicate that he's a ST player at most.  Bilal Nichols came on late and showed up well at the East-West Shrine game.  There are some concerns about his motor.  Given his raw physical tools and how well he played against decent competition, that's not a bad gamble to make especially this late in the draft.  At the very least, he figures to add some solid depth on the defensive line for the Bears.  The inconsistent tape and hot/cold motor probably turned teams off.  Pass rushers tend to go off the board early and often, especially those who are proven.  Kylie Fitts wasn't very productive in terms of production in college, but he's a better athlete than given credit for.  He's probably not much more than a situational pass rusher at the next level, but his flexibility in terms of roles he was asked to play makes him a solid bet to make the final 53 and play on special teams.  I hadn't really evaluated Javon Wims as he was an average athlete at best and less than ideal hand size.  Given his limited athleticism, it's going to be tough for him to make the final 53 unless he cracks on special teams.  Overall, it's a solid but unspectacular draft class.  They should get a good amount of production, particularly out of their first two picks who should be stalwarts for the Bears for years to come.  Grabbing Anthony Miller gives the Bears another option to give Mitchell Trubisky to thrive, but the value is where I have the biggest question.  If the Bears keep borrowing picks from the future, they're eventually going to regret that decision and they need to put Mitchell Trubisky in a position to succeed.

Best Value Pick: James Daniels [C; Iowa]
Worst Value Pick: Anthony Miller [WR; Memphis]
Grade: B+

[Shanedorf]

Huge Props to you for the write-ups CWood, excellent as always

Maybe we see Anthony Miller vs Jaire Alexander in the home opener