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2018 POST DRAFT PLAYER AND ROSTER ANALYSIS

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I thought I’d open this up for post draft player and roster analysis so I don’t have to look in so many different threads for player info. A bit more detail than a roster projection.

Chubb’s a great place to start. We’ve had a lot of discussion regarding “need vs BPA”. In Chubbs case, he fits both categories perfectly.  Hard to argue he wasn’t BPA.  A guy that size with LB metrics is pretty awesome. He should be exciting to watch develop as a defensive force.

As far as need, he guarantees a quality pass rush for 5 years now. With Von’s cap hit escalating to $25 million next year signing Ray or Shaq to an extension seems like a pipe dream. Having Chubb on a rookie deal really minimizes the effect of Von’s cap hit.

All in all a great pick.

I’ll add some more when I get some time. Feel free to chime in.

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Well, the first thing I would say is that our entire 2017 draft class sans Bolles/Walker are on notice. I think some of the guys we drafted this year on the offensive side are long-term pieces who can contribute right away. 

Chubb is going to be either a Day 1 starter, or play over 50% of snaps even if he doesn't "start." I'm incredibly excited about him for so many reasons. Having more pass rush is never a bad thing, and having the ability to rest guys a bit more because of our pass rush depth can only help us as we go through the season. That's an incredibly encouraging roster situation, and doesn't even factor in guys like Wolfe, Walker, Gotsis and the impact they can have.

Courtland Sutton should be a contributor in the red zone early on. I'm curious how they'll actually try and use him, but if he shows well, I could see him moving to the outside in 3WR packages and Sanders kicks in, or I can see him being used mainly in the red zone because of his frame and high point ability. Sutton may need a year to really get into the whole swing of things, but I think he's got the ability to contribute immediately, especially because his scoring prowess is undeniable and we're not good there.

Royce Freeman will be the starting RB. I know Elway said it's an open competition, but Freeman is the best of the bunch. He can pass block, he can catch a bit out of the backfield, and he's a load to bring down. Even splitting some carries with the other two, which I think will happen to minimize further tread wear on his tires, so to speak, Freeman should be the go-to back. He's also got good short yardage abilities which have been a problem for us since as long as I can remember.

Isaac Yiadom probably won't be a major factor in Year 1, but I think he's probably a good bet to be a gunner and big time ST contributor early on considering our losses of Latimer and Fowler. I think he's technically already better than Langley, but won't beat out Tremaine Brock. Still, he'll be a valuable guy for ST since we were so bad there last year, and if our coaching staff liked what they saw when they actually got to coach him, that makes me very optimistic.

Josey Jewell is another guy who I don't know how much he contributes Day 1 in the base defense, but he'll be a Year 1 ST contributor. It's year 2 where I expect to see Jewell have a starting role on this team. His instincts and leadership won't leave him on the bench for long though. Our LB situation next year is a little more of a mess, and I expect Jewell will eventually start over either Marshall or Davis.

DaeSean Hamilton is going to play a big role from the start, I believe. He's a true slot guy, and he just has a knack for getting open and he catches everything. He made many a big play for PSU over the years and I've seen quite a bit of him. He's going to be a really good player. I think he'll contribute a lot by virtue of the fact that we don't have another true slot player. Yes, Sutton/Sanders may occupy some space there, but I can see Hamilton getting run early on because he's technically savvy and a reliable pass catcher.

Fumagalli, Jones, Bierria, and Williams- we'll see on all of these guys. Bierria probably has a good chance to make the roster has LB depth. Fumagalli will make it, but his contributions Year 1 will probably be limited. Jones and Williams scream PS players to me.

Finally, Jeff Holland as a UDFA is an absolute unbelievable get. He should have been a 3rd or 4th round pick based on his production. He's going to make this team. He's relentless and someone who would thrive in this defensive scheme given all the other attention our pass rushers and DL can command. 

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Posted (edited)

Look at our draft class they're all leaders and high character  guys. Elway said the team basically  quit after the bye week or not quit exhaled he called the players soft  and has a draft  like  this. 

It makes me think he wasnt lying. It makes me think a lot of what happened last year truly wasn't  just a talent issue. And clearly Vance isnt a motivator lol.

You draft team captains, self motivators, guys like we drafted because you want more than great players you want a culture change.

I thought John  was out of bounds with the comments. I thought he was turning into a crazy *******. I thought  he was just spewing stuff he didn't  believe. Now I respecr it, because he not only wasnt lying he pays the players lol. 

 

 

Edited by thebestever6

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Day 1

1.5 Chubb - A grade pick.   No doubt he contributes, too good in all facets of the game. 

Day 1 - A grade.   Crazy that BUF came through and offered 1.12, 1.22, 2.56 for our 1.5 and 3.71.   In hindsight, that would have netted Vea, a top 3 G (Hernandez/Wynn - who can play T) and Freeman upgrades to either Oliver/Davis (wow) or Guice.  But at the time of 1.5, there was no way Elway could safely predict that far ahead, 50 picks later, or that Elway wouldn't have gone in a different direction than best-case.   So even with knowing the trade, Full A grade.

Day 2

2.40 Sutton - B+ pick.  He is more likely to help in 2019, and yes, he fell.   Only reason I put the pick at B+ and not an A pick is what I've said before (and said before 2.40 was picked) - WR was so deep, we could have waited until 3.7 and gotten a difference-maker talent, and an even better 2.40 impact guy for another key spot, the BPA list (Oliver, Goedert, Conor Wiliams) had 3 guys ahead of the WR's, and by 3.7, those positions had a lot lower-tier talent guys left.   Still, unlike Elway Day 2 picks, he's actually a player lol.  So it's not a disaster, just a missed opp.

3.71 Freeman - B- pick.  I actually think he'll be our 2-down guy eventually.   I have a bias to seek out 3-down profile guys, and Freeman's mileage, the ORE system (where the running lanes are a mile wide), and his punishing style have me worried he won't hold up, even for a rookie deal.   Still, it's not horrible at all.   But not my preference (and again, not just hindsight, stated b4 and at pick time).    

3.99 Iyadom - B- pick.   He'll take time.   Guys who take time, though, probably can wait, and if not, it's not a crushing loss.   This is probably the only pick where I think Elway/Kubiak felt compelled by need and falling in love with 1 guy, to not want to wait.   It wasn't a huge reach, though, so that's progress too lol.

Overall, Day 2 gets a B grade.  That makes this the best Day 2 since 2011.   

Day 3

4.106 Jewell - A+ pick - after this, a huge drop-off in ILB talent.  So maximized return IMO.   Full marks.

4.113 Hamilton - B+ pick - I was so tempted to say we should go TE Smythe.   But I get Elway isn't seeing Carlos Henderson as capable of slot in the future, then this pick makes a ton of sense.  

5.153 & 6.218 - Fumigali & Williams - D picks - I'm going to put this as combo pick - because we could have stood pat and gone Tyrell Crosby, who would have been another A pick IMO.   And Jones is just a replacement level 2-down guy (or worse) & Fumigalia is Owen Daniels, at best, virtually no difference-making talent.   That's a big whiff vs. the potential to hit with Crosby, sad to say IMO. 

6.180 & 6.226 - Jones & Bierria - C- picks - Again, treated like a combo pick since this was for 5.160.   Jones at least has some projection.   Bierria is just a ST guy.   Much rather have NT Tim Settle, T Jamarco Jones, or TE Jaylen Samuels. 

Overall, Day 3 gets a B- grade.   Rocking start, awful finish.

UDFA

A - Jeff Holland should have been drafted around Round 5.  A+ pick.    Lindsay actually fits a great role (but makes the Williams pick look pointless, as we can only keep so many guys on the 53-man squad, and only 1 guy on the PS).    Lotululei fits a need and has some ceiling - but really AWFUL character concerns.   But it's a free shot.  So yeah, have to give this an A overall.

 

So the Draft gets a solid B grade - but the UDFA class pushes it to a B+ grade.   Could have been an A draft with Round 5-7 standing pat, and could have been A+ with a different Day 2 order (Rd 5-7 would have also addressed our key deficiency in this draft with a difference-maker in Crosby, and also concentrated our talent to more difference-makers - so have to ding Elway & Kubiak there).    The UDFA class really is a breath of fresh air, it's a shout out to the old days, we actually got 1 guy other teams wanted badly.

But overall, B+ literally makes this the best draft since 2011.   And as discussed before, Elway/Kubiak's change in approach for going BPA early on (when big gaps are present), and adjusting to how the Board is shaking out, and not reaching for "their guys" no matter what (not all the way there, but it used to be a complete 0 in this area, so that's so encouraging to see the progress).    

Now, final reminder - we still are a meh to bad 2018 team.  This draft doesn't change that.   We need to give this class at least 2 years to know, so patience (2017 we should still wait, although taking Hamilton after taking Sutton signals Henderson's potential as a slot guy is fading fast, which with McKenzie's failure and likely roster cut, is bad there.  And taking Iyadom Rd3 also signals Langley still needs a lot more time.  And taking 3 RB's suggests D-Henderson isn't seen as anything special, which by itself for a 6th rounder, is fine.  But with all those other guys looking hard like busts by Elway/Kubiak's own actions, it looks as bad as many of us feared...or worse, if Butt/Walker don't salvage the Day 2-3 disaster so far).

 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Now, final reminder - we still are a meh to bad 2018 team.  This draft doesn't change that.   We need to give this class at least 2 years to know, so patience (2017 we should still wait, although taking Hamilton after taking Sutton signals Henderson's potential as a slot guy is fading fast, which with McKenzie's failure and likely roster cut, is bad there.  And taking Iyadom Rd3 also signals Langley still needs a lot more time.  And taking 3 RB's suggests D-Henderson isn't seen as anything special, which by itself for a 6th rounder, is fine.  But with all those other guys looking hard like busts by Elway/Kubiak's own actions, it looks as bad as many of us feared...or worse, if Butt/Walker don't salvage the Day 2-3 disaster so far).

 

What is needed is another draft like this one next year - and then another the year after - that is how you build a roster.

Now - Chubb will make a big difference on defence - and will create massive problems for opponents. Keenum is a major upgrade over Siemian/Lynch/Osweiler - and he will have some new weapons to throw to - coupled with the fact that, hopefully, the OL and the run game will improve.

We have a long way to go - far too many times last year the team wasn't even in the game - so that is the first step that has to be achieved, make this team competitive and then look at winning games. 

The one note of concern I have is that this was a deep draft class talent wise - so while Elway did a good job - so did many other teams.

Edited by jolly red giant

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2 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

What is needed is another draft like this one next year - and then another the year after - that is how you build a roster.

Now - Chubb will make a big difference on defence - and will create massive problems for opponents. Keenum is a major upgrade over Siemian/Lynch/Osweiler - and he will have some new weapons to throw to - coupled with the fact that, hopefully, the OL and the run game will improve.

We have a long way to go - far too many times last year the team wasn't even in the game - so that is the first step that has to be achieved, make this team competitive and then look at winning games. 

The one note of concern I have is that this was a deep draft class talent wise - so while Elway did a good job - so did many other teams.

I think drafts need to be like this from now on. Much like Elway said we want to win from now on

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17 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

What is needed is another draft like this one next year - and then another the year after - that is how you build a roster.

Now - Chubb will make a big difference on defence - and will create massive problems for opponents. Keenum is a major upgrade over Siemian/Lynch/Osweiler - and he will have some new weapons to throw to - coupled with the fact that, hopefully, the OL and the run game will improve.

We have a long way to go - far too many times last year the team wasn't even in the game - so that is the first step that has to be achieved, make this team competitive and then look at winning games. 

The one note of concern I have is that this was a deep draft class talent wise - so while Elway did a good job - so did many other teams.

Yeah this draft went 75-85 above-average-starter-level-by-year-2 guys deep.  Usually it's 50-60 or so, which is problematic when you are a good team.  It's also why guys like Jewell (yeah!), Crosby & Settle & Hurst fell (I really regret Hurst too, but I get why that didn't happen, he got nabbed before 5.149 - just hurts it's OAK).   And why Holland was a UDFA.   

I'm not trying to be negative - next year, we need to see Elway/Kubiak take adjusting to the Big Board to the next level.  They did a fine job with 1.5 Chubb, and once they took WR 2.40, they adjusted well, and they played Rd4 masterfully.  But they missed an opp to have a better Day 2 result because they saw a numerical fall with 1 guy (Sutton), but didn't account for how deep WR was overall (which created the fall), and the fact that CB/TE/OL all fell off in very similar talent to Sutton afterwards.   I didn't mind the Sutton pick, but Oliver/Jackson (who I get isn't a scheme fit), Williams & Goedert I had ranked just above - and they were all similar talents (but the talent after they were gone was a huge dropoff) - unlike WR.   It's not a huge mistake, but it's a missed opp - and in drafts with less talent, we'll pay for it a LOT more.    So that's a very fair take.

Still, Elway/Kubiak came a long way here - hopefully they don't just sit back, but continue to look to improve on their process.  To say it's been an improvement is a massive understatement.  To come full circle - 2017 was actually very good in Day 2 talent, but Elway completely botched it by going need & physical tools over actual skill guys, and adjusting to the Big Board.   Rd 2-3 were painful in how obviously Elway reached for need and a specific skill (pure speed) over anything else.   It was good to see him not do it here - because man, hearing we were thinking DJ Chark even as high as Rd1, and wanted to take Ronald Jones 2.40, knowing Elway brought them in on visits, that was 2017-flashback time.   So glad it was a 180 degree turnaround.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Look at our draft class they're all leaders and high character  guys. Elway said the team basically  quit after the bye week or not quit exhaled he called the players soft  and has a draft  like  this. 

It makes me think he wasnt lying. It makes me think a lot of what happened last year truly wasn't  just a talent issue. And clearly Vance isnt a motivator lol.

You draft team captains, self motivators, guys like we drafted because you want more than great players you want a culture change.

I thought John  was out of bounds with the comments. I thought he was turning into a crazy *******. I thought  he was just spewing stuff he didn't  believe. Now I respecr it, because he not only wasnt lying he pays the players lol. 

 

 

Yeah, that's a good take - Elway clearly wanted to change the culture - he loves the edge we have, but he didn't like our reaction to adversity last year.   It's pretty clear Elway was p*ssed at the team's losing streak, and that he felt they quit.  It's no coincidence we traded Talib early in the PS.   I love the guy's talent, he was great for us, we don't win SB50 without him, no question.   But Talib totally quit during the PHI game, guys beat him that had no business being open, it was all lack of effort in the 2H.  And you get the feeling that happened with our other blowouts, too, from what Elway said. While others were also clearly just as culpable, Talib's role as one of our faces, it was really a bad look there that needed changing, especially on a team that has no real shot of contention in 2018.  We aren't a playoff team, but we can't let people quit on games, either.  It's not all Talib's fault, to be clear, and he's still talented #1 CB (for how long is unclear, but still for now), but at 11M and our cap situation, AND Elway wanting to send a message, all made it a no-brainer there.

I do think Elway & Kubiak can't get let the pendulum swing too far the other way, though.  We shouldn't pass up talent even if there are character concerns - those let guys fall to amazing value.  We don't have to get Antonio Callaway guys, but us taking Lowell Lotululei, is a good example.   Just like medical risk shouldn't take guys off the board completely (Crosby & Hurst clearly must have been to fall that far).

My one quibble with this approach (and it's only a quibble at this stage) - at some point, you have to recognize when low-talent but high-character guys probably aren't the pick.  I don't want a bunch of thugs, but I do think going with Jones, Fumigalia & Bierria were all great-character guys...but with JAG talent.   I've been pounding away that Elway's tendency to go Day 2 with insane-tools/low-football skills has killed us, but I've also recognized it's what has led to his Day 3 hits.    Ironically - he didn't do that AT ALL Rd 5-7.  That's where he should keep going for the high-ceiling guys, he's had great success. 

Sometimes you can go too far the other way, it's a balance.  Still, if it's just for this year, because Elway/Kubiak needed to change the culture across the board, I get it - it just can't be his long-term Day 3 approach to just go character.  Day 3 is literally the one area where Elway's old approach worked (love Rd4, but there were still high-character guys with talent who were value picks in Jewell & Hamilton - after that, not so much). 

Stick with BPA Rd 1, be ready to adapt to how the Board is falling (way better now, just needs more refinement, but great 1st yr), and keep going with more high-skill/good ceiling players on Day 2.  Those are the great changes.   On Day 3, though, it's fine to keep the old Elway, once those high-skill/good-ceiling players are gone (this year, we were fortunate that our 4.106 & 4.113 picks, still talent like that there).   Once that talent is gone on Day 3 (some years it's right out of the gate, this year it was Rd5), go nuts and feed the old Elway draft demon - it actually works great then (just keep that bad boy chained up for Day 2).

Edited by Broncofan

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I love the sutton pick he reminds me of a more mature Kenny Britt. With high character he also hasnt had injury  issues I loved britt early on. There was a clear gap between him and other wrs on our board thats why elway went that route.

The te I like Owen Daniels was a very good player for a long time

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I love the sutton pick he reminds me of a more mature Kenny Britt. With high character he also hasnt had injury  issues I loved britt early on. There was a clear gap between him and other wrs on our board thats why elway went that route.

The te I like Owen Daniels was a very good player for a long time

Owen Daniels is his ceiling though - not his certain outcome.   That's why I don't like it TBH.

Re: Sutton, Jeffery as the comp is what we all hope for.  Please, please, please don't ever use Kenny Britt's name again if you are hopeful with Sutton.  Bad mojo there.  Britt's got bad hands, injury-prone, and a bad character - I mean, Britt's a grown man.   I hate the maturity angle once we are past the draft - that label applies to 21-22 year olds, we know young males can be jerks and grow out of it.  Britt never did.   That's not maturity.  That's just a jerk.

Edited by Broncofan

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9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Owen Daniels is his ceiling though - not his certain outcome.   That's why I don't like it TBH.

Re: Sutton, Jeffery as the comp is what we all hope for.  Please, please, please don't ever use Kenny Britt's name again if you are hopeful with Sutton.  Bad mojo there.  Britt's got bad hands, injury-prone, and a bad character - I mean, Britt's a grown man.   I hate the maturity angle once we are past the draft - that label applies to 21-22 year olds, we know young males can be jerks and grow out of it.  Britt never did.   That's not maturity.  That's just a jerk.

Early britt was special look up stats highlights games. In the game he got injured against us he was dominating.

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Posted (edited)

Looking at this hindsight talk well what about this? This could have happened just as well.

Elway took the no brainer blue chip prospect at 5. You really trust him not to reach with two firsts in the middle of the pack?

First off Tampa may have just taken Vea at 7 if we made that move down. Only player I could see them take possibly over him that went before 12 was Minkah. So let’s just scratch that. The likely pick would have been LVE. Yes trust me on this. 

Second of all we don’t know where Sutton was rated on the board do we? Maybe Elway takes him at 22. He did have a first round grade on him. Again I believe Elway had an Olineman ranked ahead of him. But that guy was actually Austin Corbett. But let’s say it was Hernandez who they wanted.

Moving up from the third say it be 71 to 56?

Elway is reaching for a RB at 56 then. He was coming out of day two with a RB, and it was going to be Freeman. So they would just take him earlier. They were locked in on Yiadom. He would still be the pick at 99.

So

12- LVE

22- Hernandez

40- Sutton

56- Freeman

99- Yiadom

106- WR/OLB

113- OLB/WR

No thanks give me Chubb at 5 and the rest of our haul. 

Edited by Counselor

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Watched an interview with Elway and he said they dipped into analytics for the first time - I wouldn't be surprised to see more of that.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Counselor said:

I’m really done with this hindsight Talk about the trade down and trying to spin oh we could have had this.... well about this?

Elway took the no brainer blue chip prospect at 5. You really trust him not to reach with two firsts in the middle of the pack?

First off Tampa may have just taken Vea at 7 if we made that move down. Only player I could see them take possibly over him that went before 12 was Minkah. So let’s just scratch that. The likely pick would have been LVE. Yes trust me on this. 

Second of all we don’t know where Sutton was rated on the board do we? Maybe Elway takes him at 22. He did have a first round grade on him. Again I believe Elway had an Olineman ranked ahead of him. But that guy was actually Austin Corbett. But let’s say it was Hernandez who they wanted.

Moving up from the third say it be 71 to 56?

Elway is reaching for a RB at 56 then. He was coming out of day two with a RB, and it was going to be Freeman. So they would just take him earlier. They were locked in on Yiadom. He would still be the pick at 99.

So

12- LVE

22- Hernandez

40- Sutton

56- Freeman

99- Yiadom

106- WR/OLB

113- OLB/WR

No thanks give me Chubb at 5 and the rest of our haul. 

Just to be clear - that's my take as well.  There's no guarantee he would have made the right pick at 1.22.   And yeah, a reach for Freeman would have been brutal there (given the character emphasis, even with Guice there, hard to believe he'd do that).   

But it's fun that now we know what BUF was willing to offer - it's not just rumor, but fact.  And man, was the draft class ever weighted to sellers.   If Chubb had gone 1.4, we should have been ALL over that.

Edited by Broncofan

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11 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Early britt was special look up stats highlights games. In the game he got injured against us he was dominating.

Bad hands and injuries matter though.  The NFL is littered with guys with great skills.   Character, injuries and the key faults are what prevent guys from being successful long-term.   It's just a comp, so it's no biggie, it's just that going off great games just confirms a player had physical tools to belong.   That's why they are so tantalizing.   But to be successful, well you get the idea.

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