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2018 POST DRAFT PLAYER AND ROSTER ANALYSIS


AKRNA

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

 

This is courtesy of @TheRealMcCoy in the Draft Forum, but I thought this captured the point beautifully.  It's just a tool, but the smart FO's are using them to enhance their drafting & personnel evaluation.  No better argument.

 

 

What gm is at,the top?

 

Do you have our rookie pff grades from this year?

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Just now, thebestever6 said:

What gm is at,the top?

 

Do you have our rookie pff grades from this year?

NYG's Gettleman, he made a small comment, but it clearly dismissed analytics.  

Nope, not yet.   Work, kids & Infinity Wars.  Not necessarily in that order.  

Lots of time to dissect the draft later lol.

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No faith in the HC and QB, we have the same oline from last year, (hopefully players are improved) and we're going to be counting on a RB rookie that was ran into the ground in college and a TE that has no NFL experience. (in addition to coming off an major injury)

I think our defense will be fine, but I have little to no optimism for our offense right now. I see us at 7-9/8-8. We realistically are not going to get anywhere in the near future w/o a franchise QB, something we don't have right now. We better hope next year's QB class is good.

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5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

NYG's Gettleman, he made a small comment, but it clearly dismissed analytics.  

Nope, not yet.   Work, kids & Infinity Wars.  Not necessarily in that order.  

Lots of time to dissect the draft later lol.

Yea I just know elway said he used them this year but he used pff last year which is a form of analytics. 

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5 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

No faith in the HC and QB, we have the same oline from last year, (hopefully players are improved) and we're going to be counting on a RB rookie that was ran into the ground in college and a TE that has no NFL experience. (in addition to coming off an major injury)

I think our defense will be fine, but I have little to no optimism for our offense right now. I see us at 7-9/8-8. We realistically are not going to get anywhere in the near future w/o a franchise QB, something we don't have right now. We better hope next year's QB class is good.

No faith in the HC and QB, we have the same oline from last year, (hopefully players are improved) and we're going to be counting on a RB rookie that was ran into the ground in college and a TE that has no NFL experience. (in addition to coming off an major injury)

I think our defense will be fine, but I have little to no optimism for our offense right now. I see us at 7-9/8-8. We realistically are not going to get anywhere in the near future w/o a franchise QB, something we don't have right now. We better hope next year's QB class is good.

I think me and you see eye to eye . I'm just happy this draft is a huge leap I can sleep now

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Just now, thebestever6 said:

Yea I just know elway said he used them this year but he used pff last year which is a form of analytics. 

PFF is a form of analytics, but as of 2015, almost every team were using PFF.    So I think he's referring to more cutting-edge stuff, like Next Gen stats, etc.

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3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

PFF is a form of analytics, but as of 2015, almost every team were using PFF.    So I think he's referring to more cutting-edge stuff, like Next Gen stats, etc.

I wonder what that is intriguing well it worked

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14 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

No faith in the HC and QB, we have the same oline from last year, (hopefully players are improved) and we're going to be counting on a RB rookie that was ran into the ground in college and a TE that has no NFL experience. (in addition to coming off an major injury)

I think our defense will be fine, but I have little to no optimism for our offense right now. I see us at 7-9/8-8. We realistically are not going to get anywhere in the near future w/o a franchise QB, something we don't have right now. We better hope next year's QB class is good.

I hate to break it to you but the 2019 QB class is really weak at the top.    There is literally no one with the same view at this stage as anyone in the top 4, and maybe top 5 right now.  Doesn't mean there won't be, but keep in mind at this stage last year, those 4 all had significant buzz for the 1st round, and so did Lamar Jackson.   Right now, there's Drew Lock, who's getting some talk as a top 5-10 prospect overall, but little else for true top-of-the-draft talent.   It's fair to say Rosen/Darnold were getting heavy buzz at this stage, and Allen/Mayfield were getting top 10-15 talk as a possibility.

Doesn't mean things can't change, but yeah....I do think Elway's choice of Keenum was in case he didn't get a QB at 1.5, he'd have a 2-year option.  Remember for the longest time, he had Darnold/Mayfield as his 1-2.    

FWIW, I don't think we're any better than 8-8 this year - but the draft was never going to fix that.  The draft is really meant for 2019+.  On that count, we're in a lot better position now to improve - especially because I really am hopeful we'll have 4-5 2019 Day 1 starters.  I didn't see that after the last 3 drafts, I didn't even see 2 for-sure Year 2 starters each year.     And that's with pretty much zero hope on our Rd5-6 guys taken.   So take it FWIW.

 

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6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I hate to break it to you but the 2019 QB class is really weak at the top.    There is literally no one with the same view at this stage as anyone in the top 4, and maybe top 5 right now.  Doesn't mean there won't be, but keep in mind at this stage last year, those 4 all had significant buzz for the 1st round, and so did Lamar Jackson.   Right now, there's Drew Lock, who's getting some talk as a top 5-10 prospect overall, but little else for true top-of-the-draft talent.   It's fair to say Rosen/Darnold were getting heavy buzz at this stage, and Allen/Mayfield were getting top 10-15 talk as a possibility.

Doesn't mean things can't change, but yeah....I do think Elway's choice of Keenum was in case he didn't get a QB at 1.5, he'd have a 2-year option.  Remember for the longest time, he had Darnold/Mayfield as his 1-2.    

There's Drew Lock, Jarret Stidham, Justin Herbert, Shea Patterson, Ryan Finley, and probably other players that will show themselves doing the season. It might not be as top heavy as this class, but there could be some decent prospects.

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3 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

There's Drew Lock, Jarret Stidham, Justin Herbert, Shea Patterson, Ryan Finley, and probably other players that will show themselves doing the season. It might not be as top heavy as this class, but there could be some decent prospects.

Patterson & NW's Thorson probably interest me the most TBH.  Lock won't even be close to our range.   Or worse, Lock isn't worth taking; regression is very possible with him.  The others are there, but man, it's not that encouraging.   Patterson's a lesser version of Mayfield (although thankfully, he's not the headache in evaluating if there are off-the-field concerns, either - but the skill evaluation is more troubling - it's actually great he's going to Michigan, we can see how he fares in a more conventional system.  Hopefully the Ole Miss appeal to stall his eligibility doesn't pan out).  Stidham, man I don't see it, guy's a check-down/system guy right now.  I haven't seen anyone but a couple guys that grab my attention as future franchise QB's.

To be upfront, I was sold on Darnold & Rosen to a degree I just don't see with any of those guys.   Bummed that Rosen fell past us, but I get it - Chubb's a talent Elway couldn't pass up, and Rosen's injury risk (the off-field concerns are still overblown IMO) created the fall.   I would have been besides myself if we had gone Allen, though.   

The thing about Rosen & Darnold - they both had the best strengths that predict NFL level success skill-wise, and they had this analysis for 2+ years.   That's a rare combination.   No matter how the 2019 group progresses, they won't carry nearly that kind of safe floor.    That's why I say 2019 isn't that reassuring.  There's still risk with even Darnold/Rosen, but if we thought they had risk, it's 2-3x more for any of these guys.

EDIT:  Projecting to 2019, if we are a 7-9 or 8-8 team, we're going to be a low-mid teens draft team.     In that range, I will say that Thorson interests me as a possible 2nd round pick - because he won't likely have a half-season's worth of tape, coming off the ACL injury late in the year.    If he hadn't been hurt, I'd feel better about the draft in general as he and Lock would then have been projected as potential top 10 picks, and we'll hopefully have Patterson with a year of Big10 play against the big boys to evaluate.   But that downward draft stock can also work to our advantage, too, since we won't be in a top 5 draft spot if we finish around .500.   Still, it's a tougher proposition to look at 2019 for franchise QB help.  Usually, this past month is where ppl almost always say "I prefer next year's class to this year's class" - but man, wasn't the case at all this time.   And I understand why.

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11 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Patterson & NW's Thorson probably interest me the most TBH.  Lock won't even be close to our range.   The others are there, but man, it's not that encouraging.

I'll be honest, I was sold on Darnold & Rosen to a degree I don't see with any of those guys.   Bummed that Rosen fell past us, but I get it - Chubb's a talent Elway couldn't pass up, and Rosen's injury risk (the off-field concerns are still overblown IMO) created the fall.   I would have been besides myself if we had gone Allen, though.   

The thing about Rosen & Darnold - they both had the best strengths that predict NFL level success skill-wise, and they had this analysis for 2+ years.   That's a rare combination.   No matter how the 2019 group progresses, they won't carry nearly that kind of safe floor.    That's why I say 2019 isn't that reassuring.  There's still risk with even Darnold/Rosen, but if we thought they had risk, it's 2-3x more for any of these guys.

Elway wanted to see our qbs surrounded with talent on offense how can anyone fault him for that. I think people jump the gun didnt bradshaw sit for 5 years?

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14 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Elway wanted to see our qbs surrounded with talent on offense how can anyone fault him for that. I think people jump the gun didnt bradshaw sit for 5 years?

Different era.   In this salary cap era, sitting a guy for 1 year is long, 2 years an eternity. 

Elway also had Darnold #1, and for the longest time, Mayfield #2.   That means he values the franchise QB.    He just didn't see anyone left at 1.5 who he thought fit the bill.    Which is fine, while I still believe Rosen was worth it, if Elway didn't, so be it.   It does show he's willing to pay for the franchise QB - he just didn't think Allen or Rosen were.   The focus on clean character probably killed Rosen.  Really, that's the only explanation other than injury risk, which while legit, is really mitigated by the protection the NFL gives QB's.  But in this focus on getting high-character, team captains, well, I don't like it, but I can see how Rosen fell out of that top 3 must-pick, and also why Mayfield got pulled in the last week (the Chargers episode which Mayfield himself admitted to, probably was the last straw - moot point regardless, but interesting to know Elway took him off the 1.5 board and it was only Darnold/Chubb/trade back on his plan).

Saying Elway wanted to surround QB with more talent is narrative, pure spin.   If that was the case, no QB would have been on his list.   Now, it's a good plan if there is no franchise QB, but no doubt, the search for a true franchise QB is still one Elway believes in as a top priority.  It's nice to see that Elway didn't feel compelled to reach for one, out of need.   Lynch's experience probably did that for him.  

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13 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

There's Drew Lock, Jarret Stidham, Justin Herbert, Shea Patterson, Ryan Finley, and probably other players that will show themselves doing the season. It might not be as top heavy as this class, but there could be some decent prospects.

I think Fromm from Georgia is supposed to be better good. 

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